Twelve Ravens Thoughts (and a prediction) ahead of Week 4 clash with Buffalo

With the Ravens aiming to improve to 2-2 in 2024 and 21-3 in prime-time home games in the John Harbaugh era in an exciting clash with Buffalo for Sunday Night Football, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:

1. The Ravens and Bills are kindred spirits with incredible quarterbacks and plenty of regular-season success in recent years. But they also continue chasing Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City for AFC supremacy after the Chiefs beat both teams in their home stadiums last January. This one should be a blast. 

2. Josh Allen would be the runaway MVP through three weeks and has feasted on early-down man coverage since 2020. The Ravens have played a good bit of man under Zach Orr, but the pass defense has been a fourth-quarter mess no matter the coverage. That must change Sunday night. 

3. Few would have predicted Buffalo’s hot start offensively after the offseason departures of starting wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but the Bills have spread the ball around effectively. Dallas was able to do the same in last week’s final quarter despite CeeDee Lamb’s poor showing. 

4. This offensive line is banged up and didn’t have to do much in pass protection last week as Lamar Jackson attempted a career-low 15 passes in starts in which he wasn’t injured. Trailing early and being forced to throw is the last thing Baltimore wants facing a good Bills front. 

5. Not only has PFF tracked Greg Rousseau with an excellent 20.9% pass-rush win rate, but the 35-year-old Von Miller has a sack in each of the first three games and has looked more like the game-wrecker he was for a decade than the non-factor he was last season. Challenging matchups. 

6. Coming off his best performance of 2024, Kyle Hamilton will be key trying to contain Allen’s dynamic dual-threat ability. The more Hamilton can play closer to the line of scrimmage, the better. Hamilton was still finding his way as a rookie and played sparingly when these teams last met. 

7. Speaking of safeties, Marcus Williams hasn’t made much of an impact thus far and has too often been in no man’s land as the Ravens have struggled to cover the middle intermediate portion of the field. For what it’s worth, PFF has graded Williams 74th out of 74 qualified safeties. 

8. Most teams now use the nickel as their primary defense, but the Bills are more committed to using two-high looks and lighter boxes than most, making Baltimore’s ground game a significant test for them. Buffalo is more disciplined than Dallas, but the Ravens will test the middle of that defense.

9. The Ravens’ true offensive identity thus far is to be multiple after they used extensive 12 personnel in Week 1, more three-wide sets against Las Vegas, and heavy run-first personnel at Dallas. Continuing to be productive on early downs remains key, but Buffalo’s defense has been stingy on first down.

10. According to PFF, 63% of Buffalo’s passing yards have come after the catch, which is the third-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed the second-most yards after the catch with tackling being a problem later in games. This defense needs to be disciplined for 60 minutes. 

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11. Both Justin Tucker and special teams coordinator Chris Horton noted that the rest of the field-goal operation has executed well, meaning it’s on the seven-time Pro Bowl selection to simply make kicks. It’s worth noting the rest of the league came back to earth from 50-plus yards in Week 3.

12. Asked about his very quiet start, Mark Andrews said, “I feel good. I feel like I’m running fast. The same old Mark doing the same old things. My time will come.” Testing Buffalo’s linebackers and safeties with Andrews and Isaiah Likely in routes seems like a good strategy. 

Prediction: The time for leaning on preconceived notions is coming to an end as the calendar is about to turn to October, so the Ravens should be feeling more urgency than Buffalo going into this Sunday night clash. A win over the Bills would reset that 0-2 start with a trip to Cincinnati looming next week and the schedule softening — on paper anyway — for the next month after that. A loss would drop Baltimore to 1-3 and 0-2 at home, all but throwing out any optimistic priors about the Ravens in the process. The Bills have certainly looked more complete and disciplined — with roughly half the number of penalties and yardage — than the Ravens through the first three games, but the home team has an advantage in rest after Buffalo’s Monday game as well as a track record of rising to the occasion in home prime-time games in the Harbaugh era. I’ve gone back and forth on my pick this week, but dropping games to both Mahomes and Allen would sure be a deflating way for a championship-or-bust season to begin. I’ll bet on Jackson making enough pivotal plays and this defense showing more of a killer instinct than we saw the last two weeks for a 26-23 win over the Bills. And we’ll want to see these teams meet again in January.