With the Ravens trying to move above .500 with a third straight win and keep AFC North rival Cincinnati in an early-season hole on Sunday, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, but since Burrow’s 2020 arrival, we’ve yet to see both healthy at the end of a season, which has kept this rivalry from going to the next level. In meetings both have started and finished, Baltimore is 3-1.
2. The Ravens aim to reiterate their 0-2 start is completely behind them while the Bengals can’t afford to fall to 1-4 if they want any realistic shot at winning the division, meaning there’s no shortage of urgency in this one. I expect Cincinnati to be extremely aggressive, especially early on.
3. We know Roquan Smith has no love for the Bengals after he reiterated Thursday, “They don’t like us, and we don’t like them.” It’s been a slow start to 2024 by Smith’s lofty standards, so the two-time Pro Bowl selection will want to make a major impact.
4. Twenty rushing yards from 500 for 2024 and 18 shy of becoming the 32nd man in NFL history to rush for 10,000, Derrick Henry figures to see more loaded boxes sooner than later. But Cincinnati ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed and 22nd in run defense DVOA. Good luck.
5. Burrow seemingly recognized this and acknowledged possessions being at a premium, saying he’s “going to have to play damn near perfect” on Sunday. Since a mediocre Week 1, Burrow’s been very good with a QBR of 71.0 or better in three straight games to go with seven touchdown passes.
6. It’s no secret Mike Macdonald had seemingly cracked the code to really slow Burrow, so it will be fascinating seeing what Zach Orr has in store for the Cincinnati offense. The Ravens have increased their use of man coverage and added another wrinkle to their pressure packages this season.
7. Why is Cincinnati 1-3 despite scoring 25-plus points in three straight? Its defense is 27th in points allowed and 32nd in “havoc” rate, your percentage of plays ending in sacks, fumble recoveries, tackles for loss, interceptions, or passes defensed. Being neither good nor dynamic makes it extremely difficult to win.
Havoc rates by each team going into week 5!
Lions and 49ers
Cardinalspic.twitter.com/hP0QL9WCAo— Emilio Conde (@MrCondeMx) October 2, 2024
8. Ronnie Stanley going against Trey Hendrickson has been a key matchup in this rivalry for years, but we’re currently seeing Stanley’s best football at any point since his horrible 2020 ankle injury. Hendrickson is off to a solid start, but neck and back issues limited him in practices this week.
9. The healthy return of Tee Higgins has opened up Cincinnati’s passing game, but rookie Nate Wiggins playing like he did against Buffalo really expands the possibilities for the Baltimore secondary. Covering Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase is a different animal than the Bills’ young receivers, making this a great test.
10. Travis Jones was a popular summer pick among teammates to have a breakthrough season, and the third-year defensive tackle has been a big problem for opponents despite that not showing up through traditional stats. For what it’s worth, Pro Football Focus has graded him 11th among qualified interior defenders.
11. If the Bengals sell out to contain the run, this feels like the time for Mark Andrews to break out as he’s caught 53 passes for 638 yards and six touchdowns over his last 10 games against Cincinnati, which includes last November’s exit with the injury. If not now, when?
12. Kyle Van Noy was named AFC Defensive Player of the Month after tying Justin Houston’s franchise mark of three straight games with two or more sacks. It’s a long season and Houston faded over the second half of that 2022 campaign, but the 33-year-old Van Noy has been fantastic.
Prediction: The Bengals are obviously the more desperate outfit and you never quite know what to expect in any AFC North showdown, so the Ravens can’t afford to take their foot off the gas after last week’s four-quarter dismantling of Buffalo that propelled them back into the early-season Super Bowl conversation. Baltimore made substantial strides defensively against the Bills and will need to continue that against a Bengals team with a new weapon emerging at running back in Chase Brown in addition to what Chase and Higgins provide as dynamic pass-catching weapons. Since the start of 2021, the Ravens have lost three games in Cincinnati, but Jackson played in none of those defeats. He — and Henry — are healthy for this one, and the Ravens are the more trustworthy and complete team entering the month of October. John Harbaugh’s team wins 30-20 to keep the Bengals in last place in the division.
