With the red-hot Ravens eyeing a fifth straight victory in a trip to Tampa Bay for Monday Night Football, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Between their Week 17 rookie clash in 2018 and a 2020 Monday night classic, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield once appeared to be forming the next AFC North quarterback rivalry before the latter fizzled out in Cleveland. Credit Mayfield for revitalizing his career with Tampa Bay. He’s playing rock-solid football.
2. The Buccaneers entered Week 7 tied for second in scoring offense (29.7) while Baltimore ranked fourth (29.5). Ravens games are averaging a league-high 54.3 combined points while Tampa Bay’s are third at 53.2 combined points, per Sharp Football. Another shootout appears to be in order, which ESPN surely wouldn’t mind.
3. Per-game averages remain somewhat noisy this early in the season, so it’s worth noting Tampa Bay ranks ninth in total DVOA and 11th or better in run DVOA, pass DVOA, run defense DVOA, and pass defense DVOA. The Buccaneers have been balanced and efficient overall, making this an underrated test.
4. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in yards after the catch as Mayfield’s on pace for career lows in air yards per attempt, rate of throws 10-plus yards downfield, and 20-plus yards downfield. As you’d imagine, sure tackling was a major point of emphasis this week for a struggling pass defense.
5. The pivotal matchup will be Marlon Humphrey against Chris Godwin in the slot. PFF tracked Godwin with the league’s most slot receiving yards entering Week 7, and Humphrey is the top candidate to contain a receiver looking more and more dynamic another year removed from his 2021 ACL injury.
6. The Buccaneers stack the box with eight-plus defenders at the second-highest rate in the league, a trend that very likely continues against the league’s No. 1 rushing attack. That sounds like a recipe for another big passing day for Jackson, who’s never thrown for 300 yards in three consecutive games.
8
7. Tampa Bay blitzes at a top-10 rate and plays the fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 in the league, per Sharp Football. Jackson has been beating the blitz consistently and ranks second in the league in yards per pass attempt against Cover 3, a look he’s carved up for years.
8. The Buccaneers are eighth in rushing, rank third in yards per carry (5.3), and are developing a three-headed monster at running back, but I’m increasingly convinced teams shouldn’t even bother trying to run against Baltimore on early downs, especially considering the vulnerabilities of the pass defense. Why waste those plays?
9. There wasn’t much of great consequence on the injury report for the Ravens, but Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea was dealing with a late-week hamstring issue that left him questionable. Vea brings the kind of inside pass-rushing presence that could give Jackson and this passing attack some difficulties.
10. With Derrick Henry and Mike Evans, Monday marks the first meeting between the active leaders in rushing touchdowns and receiving touchdowns as well as the first meeting between two players with 100 career touchdowns each since Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson met in a 2020 game. Special talents.
11. Chris Redman and Brad Johnson were the starting quarterbacks the last time Tampa Bay beat Baltimore back in 2002 with the Ravens having won the last five meetings. The Buccaneers snapping that streak would certainly elevate their contender status in the NFC.
12. We know the Ravens are 22-1 in games started by Jackson against NFC opponents, but Todd Bowles is a respected defensive mind and Tampa Bay played against Jackson only two years ago. Of course, Greg Roman was still the offensive coordinator then, so will that familiarity make any meaningful difference?
Prediction: The combination of Godwin and Evans will be difficult to stop for a Baltimore defense that’s allowed 23 or more points and at least 233 passing yards in five of six games. Mayfield is playing with a lot of confidence right now, but he’s still capable of throwing you the football if you confuse him before the snap, which reinforces the need for Zach Orr’s defense to actually catch the ball after dropping a handful of would-be interceptions in recent weeks. Ultimately, this matchup looks somewhat like last week’s, and Washington wasn’t able to run the ball or get a second-half stop to flip the score. Jackson and this offense are playing at too high a level across the board to pick against them right now, especially facing a Tampa Bay defense lacking elite playmakers. The Ravens will take an early lead and stay a step ahead with Henry running the ball late for a 30-26 win to improve to 5-2.
