With the Ravens seeking a sixth straight win and a 2-0 start in AFC North play in a trip to Cleveland on Sunday afternoon, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. The Browns have yet to score 20 points in a game while the Ravens haven’t scored fewer than 30 since Week 3 and have produced at least 20 in every contest this season. Even if Jameis Winston and Ken Dorsey provide a spark for Cleveland, it could be very fleeting.
2. The injured Deshaun Watson ranked ahead of only Jacoby Brissett at 5.3 yards per pass attempt, was dead last among qualified quarterbacks in ESPN’s QBR metric, and was sacked a league-high 33 times. He couldn’t have been much worse, so Winston has a low bar to be an upgrade.
3. Sacks are more of a quarterback-driven stat than some realize, but Cleveland’s offensive line has been poor with ESPN ranking the Browns 15th in pass-block win rate and 26th in run-block win rate. Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller could return Sunday, but they really miss ex-offensive line coach Bill Callahan.
4. Lamar Jackson ranks first in passing grade, third in passing yards, fifth in touchdowns, and first in passer rating on throws past the sticks, according to PFF. Especially in the wake of his recent deep connections with Rashod Bateman, what exactly is Jackson’s weakness at the moment?
5. The Browns play the league’s highest rate of man coverage, which is a recipe for Zay Flowers to have a big day despite the speedy receiver missing two days of practice with an ankle injury this week. Washington learned that the hard way a couple weeks ago.
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6. Despite clear drop-off from 2023, the Cleveland defense is still capable of playing at a high level, but the Browns are prone to the big play, ranking 27th in percent of pass plays going for 20 or more yards. Of course, the Ravens defense has struggled in that department too.
7. You have to feel great for Nick Chubb making it back from last year’s knee injury. The success of the Ravens run defense speaks for itself, but a factor to monitor is the availability of Travis Jones, who’s still dealing with an ankle injury that limited him considerably last Monday.
8. Derrick Henry’s 2,000-yard rushing pace sparks memories of Jamal Lewis running for an incredible 500 yards over two games against the Browns in his record-setting 2003. This Cleveland defense is better than that one, but Henry could be in line for plenty of carries on Sunday.
9. The Browns’ pass rush begins with Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith, but don’t sleep on second-year edge defender Isaiah McGuire, who’s an ascending talent playing the run well. Smith has been a subject of trade rumors with some Ravens fans hoping for a reunion to boost an inconsistent pass rush.
10. The best offenses aren’t as great on third down as they are at avoiding those situations entirely. The Ravens still rank second converting 50% of third downs, but they have gained a league-best 7.4 yards on first down and rank 27th in third-down plays despite running the fourth-most plays overall.
11. We’ll see if Baltimore gets a chance to put its revamped “hands” team to work after failing to recover another onside kick against Tampa Bay. The Ravens rank 19th in special teams DVOA and continue to spring leaks whenever something is seemingly cleaned up.
812. John Harbaugh grew up a Browns fan and is one win shy of tying Paul Brown for 18th on the NFL’s all-time wins list for the regular season. I’m sure matching Brown in Cleveland would mean something for the 17th-year head coach who owns a 25-7 record against the Browns.
Prediction: This game has become more interesting with the unknown of Winston at quarterback and Dorsey calling the plays, but the mess that is the Browns offense went beyond the woeful play of Watson and the lack of feel for a new system by head coach Kevin Stefanski. Especially with veteran wide receiver Amari Cooper now being in Buffalo, Cleveland doesn’t have enough pass-catching talent beyond Pro Bowl tight end David Njoku to prompt too much concern despite the Ravens’ pass defense woes and health questions in the secondary. Any chance for a Cleveland upset depends largely on self-destruction, and we know Baltimore is still prone to head-scratching moments that keep opponents in games. Though you never assume anything in division road games, Harbaugh’s team has already lost a game to one of the worst teams in the NFL. Winston is the kind of high-variance quarterback who could keep this game exciting, but the Ravens will prevail 31-16 for a sixth straight victory.
