With the Ravens trying to rebound from a Week 8 upset defeat and improve to 6-3 hosting upstart Denver on Sunday afternoon, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. It’s impossible to dislike the Diontae Johnson trade that cost practically nothing, but I lean toward this being more of a depth move than something that moves the needle markedly. There’s only one football to go around, but this is great Zay Flowers insurance at least, which is quite valuable.
2. Lamar Jackson has been on too much of a roll to be particularly worried about two missed practices hindering his performance, but you hope this was truly more about rest than back and knee ailments being concerns, especially with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh tilts looming. The bye is a month away.
3. The Broncos have played one of the NFL’s easiest schedules thus far, but Sean Payton’s team has also registered four wins by 14 or more points, meaning you can’t chalk up their success to simple luck either. This is quite an opportunity for Denver to make an AFC statement.
4. The Broncos defense doesn’t include many big names beyond Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain, but this group is playing at an elite level. Though Next Gen Stats tracks the Broncos with the league’s third-highest pressure rate, their blitz rate is second, and we know Jackson has diced up blitzes.
5. A significant key to the game will be Bo Nix and a passing attack that has lacked explosiveness facing Baltimore’s poor pass defense that should welcome back Marlon Humphrey. Disrupting the rookie quarterback will be critical as Nix’s splits between clean pockets and pressure are extreme.
6. That won’t be easy with multiple outlets supporting Denver having one of the NFL’s best offensive lines with just 11 sacks allowed and the Ravens’ pass-rush deficiencies becoming more glaring. Eric DeCosta needs to do all he can to add an impact contributor in that area before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
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7. John Harbaugh said he expects Marcus Williams to play Sunday, and all parties appear ready to move on from his mysterious Week 8 benching. Williams’ play has clearly been disappointing, but I’ll still take my chances with him before other in-house options like Eddie Jackson playing more snaps.
8. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was candid discussing the challenges of facing the Ravens offense and went as far as stating his preference to take away Baltimore’s run and force Lamar Jackson to pass. There are few answers for slowing this offense, and you better have the horses to execute.
9. I was surprised Travis Jones played last week, and his 15 snaps did little to support that being a wise decision. We’ll see what Sunday brings after he logged one limited practice Friday, but I’d much rather see him get right physically than have this ankle injury linger multiple weeks.
10. After calming early-season concerns, the right side of the offensive line has taken a step back recently with Daniel Faalele and Roger Rosengarten surrendering a combined 10 pressures in Cleveland. Led by Zach Allen and Jonathon Cooper, this Denver front is tough and talented.
11. Per Sharp Football, Denver is the only team not to score a touchdown from outside the red zone this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed a league-worst nine touchdowns from outside the 20, which included three against the Browns last week. The big plays continue to hurt.
12. The Broncos are fourth in the NFL in special teams DVOA while Baltimore currently stands 25th, which is quite disappointing for an organization that devotes more effort and resources to that phase than many. This could be a real factor if Sunday’s game is close.
Prediction: This is the most adversity the Ravens have faced since beginning the season 0-2 and nearly blowing a big lead at Dallas in Week 3. Harbaugh’s team responded to that by demolishing Josh Allen and Buffalo in a 35-10 home victory, so we’ll see if Baltimore can bounce back in similar fashion. Roquan Smith said this week that the defense is “going to be perfectly fine” and will “keep receipts,” so it’s about time for that group to start playing like it against a rookie quarterback and an offense that’s improving but still more pedestrian than problematic. We watched the Ravens offense take a step back against the Browns, and Denver has been much better defensively overall. Jackson’s mobility and health will also be something to monitor, which is all the more reason to lean into Derrick Henry more than usual early in this game. If the Ravens can lose to Las Vegas and Cleveland, the 5-3 Broncos are more than capable of coming into Baltimore and pulling off an upset, especially given their physicality in the trenches and how banged up the Ravens’ defensive line is. But I’ll put my trust in the best unit for either team — the Baltimore offense — rebounding from last week and making enough plays against a very good defense for the Ravens to win 26-20.
