With the AFC North champion Ravens aiming to advance to the divisional round and end rival Pittsburgh’s season in Saturday’s first-round playoff clash, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. The Steelers haven’t won a postseason game in eight years. The Ravens have lost three of their last four home playoff contests. Pittsburgh would save the perception of its season with an upset win while one shudders to ponder the fallout of a Baltimore loss. Much rides on this one.
2. The absence of Zay Flowers hurts as it invites the Steelers to be more aggressive playing the run and blitzing Lamar Jackson, but the Ravens have enough firepower. You’d expect more 12 personnel use than usual, and the returning Justice Hill could be a sneaky perimeter weapon to deploy.
3. Pittsburgh’s defense is healthier than in Week 16 when DeShon Elliott, Donte Jackson, and Larry Ogunjobi were inactive and top cornerback Joey Porter Jr. hurt his calf early in the game. No excuses for a Steelers defense that was gashed in that Dec. 21 matchup.
4. The Ravens have had a great ground attack from the moment Lamar Jackson became their starting quarterback, but the postseason is why they signed Derrick Henry, especially with Flowers currently sidelined. Henry was always going to put up big regular-season numbers in this offense, but January remains the ultimate judge.
5. Even with Henry, the offensive line against the tough Pittsburgh front remains a critical matchup. The Steelers won the battle in the first meeting while Baltimore prevailed in the rematch, especially on the ground as the Ravens ran for 121 yards in the first half alone.
6. A major reason for that was the increased use of pre-snap motion, which got the Steelers out of position and led to big gains between the tackles. The increased success between the tackles down the stretch has made this offense even more dangerous. We’ll see if Pittsburgh found any answers.
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7. Per Sharp Football, the Ravens rank first in the NFL at 6.9 yards per play on first down while Pittsburgh was last at 4.5 yards per play on first down. You’re not going to run repeatedly on early downs against this defense and expect to land in many short-yardage situations.
8. Zach Orr is “definitely expecting” to see the Steelers mix in some Justin Fields, who was out for the Week 16 meeting. Especially with Russell Wilson’s play going in the wrong direction in recent weeks, Pittsburgh would be foolish not to use Fields as a change of pace at least.
9. Baltimore lost seven fumbles all season with two coming in that Week 11 loss at Pittsburgh, but the Ravens were fortunate to recover all three of their fumbles in Week 16 with the first two coming early and having the potential to change that game’s complexion. Ball security remains critical.
10. Mercurial as he may be, George Pickens remains such an X factor for Pittsburgh, especially if he’s matched up against Brandon Stephens on the outside. Pickens is coming off his worst game of the season, so will he bounce back or just go in the tank completely?
11. Week 11 marked the beginning of the defensive turnaround as Marcus Williams was benched for Ar’Darius Washington and Kyle Hamilton began playing more high safety. However, the Steelers — even without Pickens — averaged 5.3 yards per play in Week 16, the best by any Baltimore opponent down the stretch. Again, turnovers.
12. Pittsburgh finished second in special teams DVOA while the Ravens ranked 23rd with much of that stemming from Justin Tucker’s woes. Tucker hasn’t missed a kick since the bye, but that didn’t include much pressure. Chris Boswell had an All-Pro season, but he’s been dealing with an illness this week.
Prediction: Generally speaking, these AFC North adversaries both carry a January vibe of Lucy yanking the football away from Charlie Brown. Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown still being Steelers the last time they won a playoff game definitely sounds worse than Baltimore’s postseason disappointments over the last several years, but John Harbaugh’s team has also carried greater overall expectations going back to Jackson’s first MVP season in 2019. Acknowledging both the recent January history and the fact that the Steelers have won eight of the last 10 meetings that included some odd circumstances, there’s no denying these teams have been moving in opposite directions since mid-December with the Ravens winning four straight in blowout fashion and Pittsburgh dropping four in a row and looking pretty bad on both sides of the ball in the process. That’s why Baltimore remains roughly a 10-point favorite even without Flowers. This marks the first time they’ve met in the postseason in a decade, and it will be the first Ravens-Steelers playoff game played in Baltimore with Pittsburgh winning three of the first four at the place formerly known as Heinz Field. The Flowers injury isn’t ideal — nor is the memory of the Diontae Johnson trade that was made with this exact scenario in mind — and could be a real detriment to a Super Bowl run if the Pro Bowl wide receiver isn’t ready to go for subsequent rounds, but the Ravens have no excuse not to beat Pittsburgh on Saturday night. Losing to the fading Steelers would be worse than what happened in 2019 when an underrated Tennessee team upset the top-seeded Ravens, who weren’t nearly as experienced as they are now. But that won’t happen. Jackson and the Ravens will send Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh packing in a 26-16 victory to advance to the divisional round. Anything less would be a massive failure since there’s no disputing which team is better on paper.
