With Opening Day just over a week away, the Orioles continue to face good roster problems.
The kind other organizations envy.
No single decision for the Opening Day roster will make or break them for 2024, of course, but that doesn’t mean choices can’t carry potential drawbacks.
It’s no secret Baltimore has an embarrassment of riches in position talent with the excitement palpable and the logjams in both the infield and outfield becoming more and more apparent. Though we make too much out of Grapefruit League numbers — journeyman Franchy Cordero had a 1.099 on-base plus slugging percentage last spring after all — like Kyle Stowers’ seven home runs, general manager Mike Elias has some difficult calls to make for the start of the 2024 season and beyond.
Unfortunately, the pitching side isn’t as ripe with tough decisions.
Make no mistake, the acquisition of former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes was a home run and expectations for the 24-year-old Grayson Rodriguez remain very high, but the mid-February news that 2023 ace Kyle Bradish would be sidelined indefinitely with an elbow injury and lefty John Means wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day definitely took some wind out of the rotation sail. That’s not to suggest the Orioles won’t succeed with Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells holding starting spots for the time being, but the trickle-down impact of those rotation concerns are felt in the bullpen since many saw Wells as an intriguing late-inning option to go with 35-year-old closer Craig Kimbrel and 2023 All-Star setup man Yennier Cano. As it stands, the bullpen has more questions than a club with late October aspirations would prefer with 2023 All-Star closer Felix Bautista out for the season and hard-throwing lefty DL Hall now in Milwaukee as part of the Burnes trade.
While there are Triple-A arms such as Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich, and Justin Armbruester who could factor into Baltimore’s pitching plans later this season, we’re not talking about prospects as highly regarded as the position talent seemingly ready for the majors.
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Such pitching questions provide more reason for Elias to embrace the club’s upside on the position player front from the beginning of the season, especially with the Prospect Promotion Incentive program making it easier to abandon manipulating service time for premium talents.
Middle infielder Jackson Holliday and outfielder Colton Cowser should be on the Opening Day roster, and third baseman Coby Mayo and outfielder Heston Kjerstad should be on a fast track to joining them. With no disrespect meant toward veteran role players who’ve contributed to the club’s turnaround over the last couple seasons, deliberately giving playing time to Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo, Ryan McKenna, or a veteran newcomer like Kolten Wong over the aforementioned names wouldn’t be putting your best foot forward. Preferring to retain as much depth as possible is understandable, but it shouldn’t stunt a club’s ceiling in the process.
Every win matters in the AL East.
We can debate whether the 20-year-old Holliday — the consensus best prospect in baseball — is completely “ready” for the majors as he winds down a promising spring, but recent Orioles history suggests he’s going to experience some struggles no matter when he arrives, so you might as well get them out of the way as quickly as you can. Baltimore hopes that’ll be the case for Cowser, who is having a strong spring after a difficult 7-for-61 debut in the majors last summer.
A 24-year-old Adley Rutschman — who was perceived as more than “ready” two years ago — batted .206 with a .651 on-base plus slugging percentage over his first 137 plate appearances in the majors before going on to finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and earning a full year of service time in the process. Even after a promising debut late in 2022, the 21-year-old Gunnar Henderson was hovering around the Mendoza Line in June before looking like one of baseball’s top players the rest of the way and winning the AL Rookie of the Year last season.
Whether Holliday runs down the orange carpet next week or debuts a month or two from now, there will be a learning curve and challenges. Why delay that process when the games will only grow in significance later in the summer? And if you’re overly concerned about crushing Holliday’s confidence if his rookie campaign were to go sideways, perhaps he isn’t the phenom so many believe him to be.
These same basic principles apply to anyone thriving at Triple-A Norfolk, which could lead to some difficult conversations over the course of the 2024 season. It’s easy to be attached to incumbents who were part of this transformation from AL East doormat to champion, but there are others are on the way who are younger, cheaper, and very likely better.
Again, these are good problems to have, and Elias shouldn’t force trades of veterans or prospects solely for the purpose of clearing the deck. But hoarding as much depth as possible at the expense of superior talent waiting in Triple-A isn’t tenable either.
With the pitching in question for at least the start of 2024, the Orioles should embrace as much offensive upside as possible by drawing from a system rich in position talent — even if that means needing to say goodbye to a veteran face or two along the way.
