Orioles fans needed the good news that finally arrived on Sunday.
On the heels of top starting pitcher John Means announcing he’ll undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, High-A Aberdeen revealed star catching prospect Adley Rutschman would begin his rehab assignment there this week with top left-handed pitching prospect DL Hall also joining the IronBirds for the time being. The announcement could serve as the start of the countdown for Baltimore’s elite prospects to arrive in the majors, a group that also includes Triple-A Norfolk right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
Sidelined with a right triceps strain since mid-March, Rutschman missed his shot to make the Orioles’ Opening Day roster out of spring training, but the 24-year-old doesn’t figure to be in the minors for long after he gets into game shape and receives enough at-bats to find his timing. You’d expect the Orioles to move him up a level or two for additional plate appearances before the switch-hitting catcher potentially makes his major league debut next month. Rutschman batted .312 with five home runs, nine doubles, two triples, 20 runs batted in, and an .896 on-base plus slugging percentage in 185 plate appearances for Norfolk last year after posting a .901 OPS at Double-A Bowie earlier in 2021.
The top overall pick of the 2019 amateur draft has been regarded as the No. 1 or No. 2 overall prospect in baseball across multiple publications over the last two seasons, but the organization has been in no rush to promote the Oregon State product with the pandemic canceling the 2020 minor league season and the rebuilding major league club losing at least 108 games in each of the last three full campaigns. Rutschman could still gain a full year of service time in 2022 if he finishes in the top two in American League Rookie of the Year voting, but the Orioles would otherwise maintain club control through 2028 with him not opening the season in the majors.
Hall’s timeline is more complicated with him currently on the development list after missing the second half of the 2021 season with a stress reaction in his left elbow. The 23-year-old had pitched well at Bowie prior to that with a 3.13 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings, but the possibility of him making his major league debut in 2022 will depend on how effectively he can build innings starting at Aberdeen and presumably progressing to Norfolk, a level at which he’s never pitched. Hall had been ramping up his pitch count at extended spring training in Sarasota before receiving the call to join the IronBirds.
Aberdeen isn’t the only affiliate set to have fun this week with Rodriguez making his next start for Norfolk on Tuesday. The 22-year-old widely regarded as the best pitching prospect in baseball has posted a 1.26 ERA and 23 strikeouts over three starts spanning 14 1/3 innings for the Tides, his first career Triple-A action. Rodriguez threw 76 pitches over 5 1/3 innings and continues to get stretched out, but continuing such dominance at that level will make it difficult for the Orioles to keep him in the minors for more than another month or two.
Though Rutschman, Rodriguez, and Hall remain the top prospects in Baltimore’s system, the name to watch for an imminent promotion to the majors continues to be 25-year-old right-hander Kyle Bradish, who has a 1.20 ERA and 17 strikeouts in three starts spanning 15 innings for the Tides this season. Having now logged over 100 Triple-A innings dating back to last season, Bradish has to be nearing a call-up, especially with Means now lost for the season and 29-year-old journeyman Chris Ellis leaving Sunday’s start with right shoulder discomfort. Bradish threw 86 pitches and struck out eight over six innings of one-run ball on Friday, an outing indicative of someone close to being stretched out after the offseason lockout and abbreviated spring training.
While some patience will be warranted whenever these young pitchers join the Orioles, the anticipation for their arrivals should ease some of the disappointment felt over the loss of Means until sometime in 2023.
