Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the absence of Jackson Holliday and the completion of Orioles’ Opening Day roster in a season of massive changes, major hopes and a new owner who hopes to move Baltimore forward along with the baseball team.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
year, santander, grapefruit league, game, orioles, point, day, holliday, elias, jackson, veteran, colton, week, scenario, playing, opening day roster, hayes, spring training, outfielder, ready
SPEAKERS
Nestor J. Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor J. Aparicio 00:02
We are wn S T and 1570 tastic Baltimore and Baltimore positive you’re positively in Florida. Coming at you semi live. We’re here for the NFL owners meeting chasing Steve shoddy, John hardball. Chad’s deal Eric cost and others round and bid in southwest Florida, Florida for the last couple of days in Fort Myers with the Red Sox in Sarasota with the Orioles, pirates, other teams, rainouts all sorts of things in the death of Peter G. Angelo’s we discussed that at length, you could find that out of Baltimore positive. We’re also gonna be doing an opening day on Thursday, you’ll see Luke at the ballpark. I don’t know if I’ll be I’ll be at the ballpark. I don’t know if I’ll be a real media member or not depends when Dave Rubenstein buys Diem, and we’re gonna football on the brain. You’re gonna be having breakfast with John Harbaugh and talking about rules and players and quarterbacks they’ve signed in Brent urban kind of like all that stuff’s gonna happen. But, boy, how many days different man I mean, I just been down in Florida for a couple days with you and feeling the energy for it. You talked to some players, and you’re gonna have Austin Hays on the show this week. What do you make of it? Yeah, I mean, you and I’ve been spending three, four days together down here. We haven’t talked a lot of baseball, believe it or not just saying it out. What do you make of the experience of all this and seeing all this energy in that locker room? Well,
Luke Jones 01:18
I get the sense that they’re ready for opening day. And it is funny being down in spring training, being in Sarasota, the last few days that they’re there, you really get the sense that alright, it’s go time, I can recall think it was after Wednesday night’s game, I believe it was Anthony Santander was actually backing his vehicle toward the facility and having his bags packed up. And I think he was having someone drive his vehicle to Baltimore, quite frankly, because he was down there and wanted his vehicle and it was loading up equipment and some of his stuff that he had down here and logistics logistics to go. Yeah, there’s a lot of that going on. And obviously, front of mind is are all the roster moves. And we’ll get to Jackson holiday in a moment because there’s plenty of meat on the bone there. But you know, it’s go time, you know, talking to Austin Hays, as you alluded to, I had a chance to spend a few minutes with him. And he was actually a unique story, because he was under the weather. You know, I missed about a week with a little bit of a stomach bug he had going on. But I asked him, you know, how do you know when you’re ready. And I mean, it’s not like this profound light bulb moment for any of these guys, but I think especially on the hitting side, they get enough at bats under their belt. You know, in grapefruit League, first few weeks, you’re getting your timing and then think for the most part, you’re ready to go, you know that whether you’re going to get off to an amazing start in the ball looks like a beach ball on opening day and you hit a home run or whether you get off to a slower start, I think guys are ready to embrace the grind of a six month season. I mean, you you don’t take it lightly because it is a long season. On the pitching side. It’s much more, much more systematic in terms of okay, you start out first couple of outings, you’re pitching an inning, maybe two innings and you know how many ups are you getting all that and you see the weird spring training scenarios where someone’s pitch count gets up, read and hide comes out, takes them out of the game. They bring in a minor league pitcher coming over from that minor league camp. And then the starter goes back in the following getting because he’s, you know, trying to get his pitch count up. So it’s very, you know, as someone who one had not covered spring training in a number of years, and I have not been someone who’s covered grapefruit league games, you know, when I’ve been down here in the past it was before the games started. It is it’s a different vibe. It’s definitely a different sense, but
Nestor J. Aparicio 03:38
pitchers out of the game, get down to the bullpen and talk to him. He was definitely
Luke Jones 03:42
right. I mean, you might miss a home run, you might miss a couple of runs being scored whatever it is, but by and large, these guys are ready to go. I think these guys know, expectations are much higher for them, then they’ve been in a very long time. You know, even last year, there was still a sense of okay, how real was the second half of of 22? Are they ready to take off? Or are they going to be a team? That’s it wildcard contention but probably not a division contender. And we saw how that worked out when they ran away with the red one. The Al East didn’t run away with it. Tampa Bay was right there. But 101 game so they know the expectations are high. I think the way the season ended for them last October in disappointing fashion. I’ll be it to the eventual World Series champions. I think that was motivation for them. But I think there’s definitely a balancing act here of understanding that. You can’t make the postseason in April. But we always talk about the flip side of that you don’t want to put yourself in a hole either. So I think there is ready is there going to be from a health standpoint, obviously Bradish and means even though Mike Elias gave another encouraging update a couple of days ago, we’ll see how that continues to unfold. But other than those two, and obviously Felix Batista, who we know is already out for the year, they’re about as healthy as you’d want them to be otherwise, and it’s go time. And I think, while there are certainly some questions on this team, and you know, we can certainly second guess, couple roster decisions here or there. And that’s what makes it fun. The fact that people care so much, it’s what makes it fun. Now, there’s a lot of excitement. And I think this team has very high expectations for themselves as they should, coming off a 2023 season, especially as it was burns.
Nestor J. Aparicio 05:30
Let’s talk about burns a little bit. You know, Friday night, the game got banged, trying to get the right amount of work for a guy who clearly is a veteran and knows what he’s doing. What are sort of coming out party may have a new owner on Thursday that that carpet is going to get rolled out the tuxedos and all that stuff. But I mean, we talked about this a lot in the in the piece with the with Angeles, his death, it’s a fresh start. And it’s a fresh season. And I think a lot of people the Jackson holiday thing it was let’s go back to that for a minute half because like we didn’t talk about it was all you talked about in the car Friday. It’s all we talked about Saturday morning for Peter died, then Peter died and everything’s changed. Now we’re Oh, games in a minute and holidays, not here. What’s the situation with him? And you know, if you’ll feel free to, you know, expound upon it, because I think it was disappointing to the fans. And I think a little bit perplexing to you, given a lyases smoke signals that were coming out, and but also, the reality of his inexperience speaks for itself. I mean, they don’t bring 20 year olds up very often.
Luke Jones 06:43
And also the reality of Yes, Mike Elias does have to consider the potential to have Jackson Holliday under club control for 2030. Now, I’m not saying that should be paramount, or that that should drive the decision or that this is the right decision. But that’s also a factor and
Nestor J. Aparicio 07:00
$40 million decision, and it’s a year. It’s a big decision already.
Luke Jones 07:04
It might by then, I mean, we’re talking six years from now, that might be a $60 million decision right then I mean, who knows? If he’s truly the MVP caliber kind of guy that he looks like he could end up being one day. I mean, you never know. But I think for me, first of all, it’s so funny, Nestor. Because if you had asked me if Jackson holiday would be on the opening day roster back in October, I would have said no. And it would have been all of the reasons that Mike Elias laid out on what was it Friday, it feels like a long time ago, up to your point with the Peter Angelos news over the weekend, you know, first
Nestor J. Aparicio 07:41
thing you would say is service time. And then the second thing you’d say service time. And the third thing you’d say service time at Scott Boras. And then you could talk about him hitting 300 at Spring Training and playing his way onto the team and people. But
Luke Jones 07:53
but the reason I would have said no, okay, Service time is part of it. But keep in mind, you also do have some different variables. Now, you do have the prospect per prospect, performance incentive, you know, in term or sorry, prospect promotion incentive in terms of what happened with the Orioles with Conor Henderson last year. Oh, Gunnar Henderson wins rookie the year the Orioles got the 32nd pick in this in the summers draft. So there’s that we saw what happened with Adley rutschman. Two years ago, which, albeit that was because of the injury, you know, we had the triceps issue in spring training, and that delayed his wasn’t gonna be on the opening day roster, whether he was truly going to be on it or not, again, up for debate, and maybe this decision gives us a little bit of insight into maybe that answer would have been no. But you know, all that aside, I would have said to you, look, he’s 20 years old, he’s not going to be 21 until December. He’s learning a new position. He played second base on average about once a week last year. The Orioles value defense, by the way, we’ve seen that, you know, defense matters for them in they play a lot of close games. We’ve talked about that the last couple years. So defense matters on that front. And the other thing that Elias laid out now he specifically went into more holiday here, his lack of facing a lot of major league read, you know, major league caliber left handed pitching, and obviously he’s a left handed swinger, and even said went as far to say he hasn’t seen a lot of triple A caliber left handed pitching. And this is where I’ll say, this is where we need to remind ourselves and you mentioned Corbin burns, I’ll use him as an example. Go look at Corbin burns, spring training stats, not great this this spring, you know, he gave up a lot of homeruns. You know, I I’ve seen some people concerned I’m not. I’m not until I see actual games that matter for me to have a reason to be concerned. The point is, you
Nestor J. Aparicio 09:48
know, around 530 on Thursday. Oh correct. The point. The point
Luke Jones 09:51
is there is so much statistical noise in the grapefruit League and I said this to you the other day. Grapefruit League Baseball is not Major League Baseball. It’s Major League Baseball mixed in with Triple A pitchers and double A pitchers, and sometimes even a stray single a pitcher. So I think from that standpoint, that’s where we do need to look at the stats that he put up in the grapefruit League, which were impressive. I mean, this kid hit a couple home runs he had over 300. He, I know his numbers against left handed pitching weren’t as good. But he did hit a homerun against major league pitcher. Now he had a grand slam against the left handed Major League starter, who was an all star a few years ago Kikuchi for Toronto, so all of that’s there. But I’ll come back to the point that I took my biggest issue with and this is what I focused in on at Baltimore, positive.com. Everything that Mike Elias just laid out, and I just gave you a summary of much of what he had to say. And even he even alluded to the fact that Gunnar Henderson who, roughly a year and a half older than Jackson Holliday as a rookie, he struggled against left handed pitching as well, early on, in his you know, his first few months in the majors. So all of those elements were true. But where I keep kept coming back to this and where I took some issue with this, in terms of the negative reaction that fans had, and I think fans are justified to it to a point, let’s not cancel opening day over this, it’s gonna
Nestor J. Aparicio 11:20
be a little over the top here 26 weeks and fun, you know, they’ll be fine.
Luke Jones 11:26
But the thing I think that bothered me, is I think the messaging and the managing of expectations could have been way better here. I think Elias had every opportunity throughout the offseason, instead of continuing to say, hey, he’s got a chance to be on the opening day roster. At one point in the winter meetings, I think he said he had a very good chance to be on the major league opening day roster. And I think based on how this played out, based on the way that he performed to a level where he had say, if he had to win a job or he had the opportunity to win a job. I think he did it from in terms of performance now, again, spring training, grapefruit league numbers are only part of the evaluation. But I guess for me, it’s if this was truly a case where he really didn’t have a shot of cracking the 26 man roster on opening day short of gunner Henderson going on the D on the IL with an oblique and Ramona Reyes spraining his ankle or Matteo tweaking his knee, you know, let’s say to other incumbent infielders had to would have had to have landed on eye on the IL for Jackson Holliday to make the club, then don’t blow up all the hype about his chances don’t tell his chances for being on the opening day roster. Because you could have done the opposite Nestor, you could have said all along look. We’re not putting pressure on this kid. He’s 20 years old. He’s got a lot that he still needs to work on. Yeah, he’s so ahead of the game. I mean, my goodness, he was 19 A trip away. But let’s pump the brakes here, guys. And you know what? He could have said that. And then if Jackson Holliday looked like Babe Ruth, throughout the spring to the point where they decided, You know what we’re gonna put up on the major league roster. Guess what? Fans would have been elated about that. No one, no one would have been mad about that. But if you if that had been the messaging throughout the offseason, winter meetings, Sirius XM MLB Network radio interview, you know, and I even linked to a couple of those, you know, I found a couple tweets from over the offseason linking to some of his comments. If that had been the messaging. And then he was sent down. Yeah, some hands would have been mad because some people just want to be mad about things. And I get that and that’s and that’s true of sports, politics, whatever it is, you know, that’s just kind of society. But I’m not getting into any of that. But
Nestor J. Aparicio 13:46
I think it was through kitchen.
Luke Jones 13:48
I think there would have been a much more understanding and probably maybe the word would have been resignation. Look, Elias said all winter. That didn’t make it sound like Jackson Holliday was going to be on the team. And yeah, he put up some numbers. At the same time. Kyle sours had seven home runs, and he’s gone back to Norfolk. Corbin Burns had a shaky statistical grapefruit league profile, you know if for whatever that’s worth, which is nothing in my mind. Again, to my point, as far as let’s see, I’m pitching a real game before we’re gonna even suggest there’s anything to be concerned about. If that had been the messaging, I think this would have gone over way better than it did and that’s my criticism. Do I think for really the proofs gonna be in the pudding Nesta? I mean, it looks like and I don’t know this for sure. As you and I are speaking a few days before opening day. There could always be a waiver wire addition, there can always be an injury that comes out of nowhere there could be some some changes on that front, but it’s looking like it could be someone like Tyler Nevin being on the 26 man roster. Look, I’m not gonna sit here and try to say the Orioles Are you know, there’s no questioning them putting their foot that’s foot forward if you’re taking Tyler Nevin and Jackson holidays going back to triple A Norfolk, I mean, again, we understand the service time thing. But I think what’s interesting here is the potential ramifications. Okay? What happens if you’re thinking about the Adley rutschman scenario where it comes up in late May and still finished second and rookie of the year, two years ago, he gets a full he got a full year of service time. So under that scenario, if you’re Mike Elias and you’re thinking in terms of service time, does that mean you’re going to hold Jackson Holliday down to June, or July where you eliminate any chance of him being rookie of the year.
Nestor J. Aparicio 15:33
So there’s that you love sandwich picks, right? You like this picks,
Luke Jones 15:37
there’s the other factor that I wrote about that. You have this well, and by the way, the sandwich pick thing that goes out the window, if he’s not on the opening day roster, you don’t get that, you know, I’m talking in terms of preserving the extra year. But if he, if he gets caught up on May 21, like Adley rutschman did, and he finishes, if he wins Rookie of the Year finished a second, he still gets a service time and by the way, then you lost all that production that he might have helped you eke out a couple more wins earlier in the season. There’s also the scenario that I presented early last week, and I wrote this at Baltimore positive.com. And the regimen was 24 years old, he was more than ready when he made his major league debut. Nestor. How did his first month in the major leagues go? He’s got Samus Brooks Robinson. Yeah, he’s got a little bit tower up did hit hit the homerun opening day in 82. And then didn’t hit for what about a month after that? Gunnar Henderson last year, he was hitting what 180 Through the first five weeks of the season five and a half weeks of the season, to the point where there were people, not you and me. But there were people wondering, does he need to get sent down. And the only thing that was kind of keeping him afloat at that point was he had a high on base percentage and was flashing good defense and things of that nature. But it wasn’t pretty. So part of my argument for saying, why not just pull the trigger, put them on the opening day roster, let them you know, he’s going to sink a little while for he’s going to struggle, but you get that out of the way. My thought is whether he gets caught up in whether it was gonna be opening day, whether it’s gonna be April 21, whether it’s gonna be May 21, or whether it’s June 15. He’s probably going to scuffle a little bit when he gets caught up. That’s generally how this works. And I just gave you two examples. All Star Adley rutschman and Rookie of the Year gutter Henderson in the last two years, a 24 year old and a 21 year old and this is a 20 year old.
Nestor J. Aparicio 17:30
Well, all the old timers tell you the biggest jumps in AAA the big leagues, right? Correct. So
Luke Jones 17:33
so so for me that there was an element to I’d rather bring him up sooner rather than later. And let him take his licks a little bit, let them take his bumps a little bit. And then I’m hoping by say, June, which is when Gunnar Henderson really took off, and was a stud the rest of the year and was one of the best players in the American League over the second half of the season. That was kind of my thought for Jackson holiday. We’ll see how it plays out. Or there could be the other scenario and this is the one that ultimately, this is where this this truly needs to fall. This isn’t. Look, we can talk about 2030 At some point down the road, right? We can talk about all these other elements. This team is built to win right now they just acquired Corbin burns, Cy Young Award winner a couple of years ago. It’s go time. So the worst thing that could happen for me is you’re holding Jackson Holliday down, he comes up looks like an absolute stud from day one. But you got off to a slow start or maybe second base. Whether we’re talking about arenas, whether we’re talking about Matteo whether we’re talking about Jordan Westberg, whoever is playing there, you know, whoever’s playing downgrades
Nestor J. Aparicio 18:43
from his star at this point, but he has the sea. Right, right. Yes, the day. They
Luke Jones 18:49
are all the higher floor players, and he’s the higher ceiling player right now. But I guess my point is, if you end up getting off to a slow start Scotland, and let’s say, heaven forbid, you missed the playoffs by a game and a half. If you didn’t call up Jackson holiday until the end of May. And he is a stud and you fell short. There absolutely should be second guessing there in terms of what could happen if you had him in the opening day lineup. Now, you could also argue well, that that time and trip away will benefits him. And that’s why he was so good. But it gets caught up. You know, I mean, we can go around and around on this. And again, it could end up
Nestor J. Aparicio 19:25
being I don’t love to drink a beer right now. Let’s
Luke Jones 19:28
just pump the brakes. I mean, and that’s, and that’s fine. And that’s fine. And that’s where I keep coming back to for me to kind of manage expectations better here is that the end of the world? isn’t that big of a deal. Does it mean I think Mike Elias thinks as a general manager, of course not. But I do think this could have been handled better in a way of everything he told us on the backfields in Sarasota on Friday afternoon, all applied back in November. And I think that’s for me where it’s if he truly never had a shot of cracking the opening day roster, and really the only scenario was that three veteran infielders were going to get have to get hurt for him to be called up. And maybe that’s a scenario. You know, like, look what happened with Grayson Rodriguez last year, he wasn’t on the opening day roster. Bradish takes the ball off the off his foot on what the third game of the season or second game of the season, and suddenly, you know, he’s in the majors two days later. So short of that kind of scenario. Yeah, don’t talk up his chances then. I mean, and that’s, that’s where I’ll leave it at that. Still plenty of excitement, still so much else to talk about, you know, whether we’re talking about Corbin burns, Gunner Henderson now, year two full second full year in the majors. And
Nestor J. Aparicio 20:37
I saw him hit a ball about 500 feet the first night rushed in there Wednesday crushed it. Yeah.
Luke Jones 20:41
I mean, I mean, he’s, he had another long home run on Sunday. At the Richmond I think it was it a 460 foot home run in Fort Myers against the twins. On Sunday. I mean, a lot of talent on this ballclub and yeah, we can, you know, I’ve got some questions about the rotation as its presently constructed. When you don’t have Bradish and John means in there right now, I certainly have some questions about the bullpen and will continue to. And I think that I still think that’s an area that they need to improve between now and the trade deadline. By
Nestor J. Aparicio 21:13
Is this where I quote the great loop Jones and say, we’ll talk about it until it’s fixed. Is that
Luke Jones 21:20
or until the next Felix Batista emerges? Yeah, someone else that they fixed, and then someone fixes now, right or the next again, your Cano emerges? So, look, it’s okay to have some question marks about this team. Every team has question marks right now. There’s no perfect team out there. I mean, we thought the Dodgers might have been the closest to it. Oh, my gosh, Shohei Otani? I mean, who knows what’s gonna happen with that scenario?
Nestor J. Aparicio 21:42
I bet that’s gonna be trouble.
Luke Jones 21:44
I mean, very well could be I mean, it’s certainly a distraction at the very least, even if it turns out okay for them. So all teams have questions. And but at the same time, this is a really, really good ballclub and coming off of a really exciting season. And normally when you say this, when everyone’s a year older, that tends to have a negative connotation, because you typically think of more veteran laden clubs. This team being a year older. It’s a great thing. You know, it’s great that Gunnar Henderson’s a year older, it’s great that Adley rutschman is a year older. I’m really looking forward to seeing Jordan Westberg first full year in the majors, I think he’s a real maybe not X Factor, but I think he’s a wild card for them in terms of if he can give them more premium offense from the lower third of the order. I mean, that lineup just gets so much deeper. So
Nestor J. Aparicio 22:34
what are these veteran guys that you spend time with Hayes, Mullins, Santander the guys that are the core guys, the guys that have been here feels like watchman’s a core guy. And it feels like Anderson’s a core guy to yours. So like I but I think the guys that were along this pathway for a period of time, we don’t talk about them much. We really don’t, you know, we don’t they weren’t, they were a little bit more automatic, or perceived to be until such point where they break down, or to or get expensive, or to the point where Colton Couser comes up and says, I’m better than you Austin Hayes. Yeah, you know, I’m just better than what you’re doing. And you’re costing more. And I don’t know where that is with him cursed at any of these young guys. Right? Well,
Luke Jones 23:17
I think that’s why this year for me is I don’t know if it’s the inflection point, although it is sometime there’s in a contract here, you know, he’s gonna be a free agent this coming fall. But I do think it’s an interesting time because you have these three incumbents and this will be what the fourth straight opening day where those three guys assuming they don’t have Santander da Qing or anything like that. It will be the fourth straight opening day where those three guys have been they’re starting outfield,
Nestor J. Aparicio 23:42
I mean, that’s some impressive continuity. Remember, four years ago, all we could talk about was well, the in the outfield looks promising. You know, that was kind of the one thing that you talked about that was how we haven’t had a lot of years in forever where it was singleton Bumbry in Ranchi loans whatever it is, do all the Devereaux Anderson you know, even then there was a different do we Evans was a right fielder for a minute, you know?
Luke Jones 24:05
Sure, sure. But but this is gonna be an interesting time because Santander it’s gonna be a free agent. Hayes and Mullins have one more year of Team control after this year. Mullins is coming off of an injury plagued year. Austin Hayes he was an all star the first half of last year, second half numbers not as good. You know, and that’s that’s been a couple years for him. He’s excellent in the first half and he tends to wear down. What does that tell you? That doesn’t mean he’s washed up. But now this is where it’s interesting cold Couser is on The Club. That was officially made known on Sunday. I’m I don’t view this outfield in terms of the three incumbent starters and Colton Couser is playing twice a week. I think that’s the wrong way to go. I think for everyone’s sake to maximize all of these guys knowing that Santander is slowed down a little bit in the outfield defensively I’m not saying he can’t play out there. But does he need to be out there seven days a week? No. Cedric Mullins certainly could benefit from getting him off his feet a little bit more here and there. That’s why I think it’s important for them to have Austin Hays to have Colton Couser tab, Jorge Mateo, who can fill in in centerfield or left field from time to time. You want to keep these guys fresh. I don’t think that sometime dare Hayes Mullins. I don’t think the plan on paper should be that each of those guys plays 155 plus games. I think this is much more at a time. And look, to be clear, Couser has got to prove it. When he goes out there and plays he’s got to be way better than he was last summer when he got called up. There’s no doubt. You know, this isn’t a scholarships scenario. This is a scenario for me
Nestor J. Aparicio 25:41
the case for holiday holiday came up and hit a buck 20 The first three weeks Sure, sure to send his ass out. And you don’t want to do that to that get either real sure. I
Luke Jones 25:50
mean, but like I said, guys are always going to struggle. Now. You don’t want it to be that extreme, though. So you know, here that point they ended up sending cows are back down. But I think what for me the sweet spots, and
Nestor J. Aparicio 26:00
Rodriguez back down. I mean, all these guys did have been disciplined, happy one point. I mean, other than rutschman. And Henderson, this is a different world when you bring a kid up when they’re 2021 years old, and they’re a rookie, and they stick and they stay in their team captain and like that shows that you manage it. Well, to begin with, I think the part for Elias to go back three minutes into the segment cuz I didn’t even said this to you in the car over the week. Like the last thing you want to do as a GM is bring the guy up and then have to have tail between your legs. If you send them back down, if he’s not ready, then once we show him off, he’s here to stay. Because it’s an emotional thing you know about where cows are robbed all these guys that got shipped out. That’s a That’s a tough day for a young guy to make it and then wind up back in Norfolk that eats guys up. And you don’t want to do that to a 20 year old kid.
Luke Jones 26:47
It is it is and certainly that was part of the consideration. But to go back to Couser, what I would like to see for him to start the year and then hey, this is all going to be how everyone performs. You know, it’s competitive. It’s a good roster. But I would like I don’t want to see him only playing once or twice a week, I want to see him playing three, four times a week. And what you how you do that is often a Santander, dH his or he gets a day off. Cedric Mullins, once a week gets a day off, Austin Hayes gets a day off dH is another day. And you can cycle in and I’d like this to really, if this goes the way that I think they would like it to go. I think you’d like it to be where they view it that they have four starting caliber outfielders and you can get guys off their feet. And the idea is okay, none of these guys need to play 155 games. But if I can get and you know, I’m just the math off the top of my head is not going to be right here. But you know, if they’re more in the range of, you know, let’s say counselors on the lower end, but none of the the three veteran incumbents are over 140, let’s say or 135. The idea is you’re hoping that they are fresher and more productive over six months, then and you’re keeping them healthier. And I think that’s what you want to see because change is common. They’re not. I mean, I’m gonna sit here right now, they’re not extending Santander, Hayes and Molins. Maybe they extend one of them, maybe I’m not convinced that they’re going to extend any of them. But you’ve got to find out while they’re still here, what you have with Couser and what you’re going to have with Heston, Kirsten and when you say
Nestor J. Aparicio 28:25
they extend those guys they extend all three of those guys will still cost less than given the money they’re gonna have to give to any of the big guns once shore shorts Rubenstein gets in here this week, you know, but from a financial perspective, the reason they won’t extend those guys is because you’re gonna have so much money and other people I believe, right?
Luke Jones 28:41
Well there, but there’s that and also, well, you know, this farm system, but again, this should be it should be a combination, right? I mean, the farm system isn’t about all every single young guy that you develop, replaces your old guys. Now, that happens in some cases. I mean, Trey Manzini was replaced, right, we saw that, but at the same time, you kind of want the churn needs to be a combination, right? You want to be able to trade some of your young prospects that might not have a path might not be a guy that you view as a dude, but someone else might view as a dude. And when I say a dude, that’s lingo for he’s a legit major league player, that’s going to be really good. So, you know, I’m guessing the Orioles didn’t think Joey Ortiz was going to be a dude. And that’s probably why they didn’t call him up last year other than a cup of coffee. That’s why they traded them as part of the package for Corbin burns. But they traded on at a point where he didn’t rot in triple A for a couple years. And suddenly everyone’s saying Hey, is he a quad a player and that’s, that’s where I’m a little concerned with where they are at with Kyle sours right now. For example. I mean, a year and a half ago, people were really excited about coward. Kyle sours. And look. He was never up top 50 prospect in baseball or anything like that, but a good prospect and had a great spring and there’s no room for him and it’s tough. I mean, I empathize for him, talk to his locker. On Friday, and he’s he was upset. I mean, I think he understood the reality of where he is in the pecking order. But he was upset because he had a heck of a spring. But the point is, I think now for alias for this organization, specifically with the outfield. But it’s also going to apply in the infield. Here, you have to look at these veteran guys. And look, it is very easy to to be nostalgic about the guys that were here when they were losing 110 games. But you also understand you have guys on the way that are going to be younger, cheaper, and they might be better. And that’s where you have to find out because, you know, extending Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins and Santander I’d have a different conversation about depending on his role, because he gives you plus power, that those guys don’t give the same home run power. But from a an investment standpoint, Nestor those are not the type of players you invest in into their 30s, especially if you have a farm system of young outfielder, etc, on the way so they’ve got to, it’s a balancing act here. And that’s why I think it’s important for them to get cows are in the lineup regularly. And hey, it might be that halfway through the year, you realize that Colton Couser might be their second best outfielder? I have no idea. I’m not predicting that. But if that’s the case, then guess what the trade deadline could look differently then in terms of what you’re looking for. And maybe you trade a veteran outfielder at that point in time, you know, I thought that that there was a decent chance that was going to happen this offseason, this past offseason, given the fact that each of those veterans are further along in arbitration getting more expensive, not that I’m in the business of, you know, not that I have any interest in saving the Orioles money, I’m just talking in terms of what Mike Elias and SigmaTel do, which is player valuation, right, you have to figure out what you think a player is worth and what he’s going to be worth next year and all that. So they are definitely at a point now where, you know, they’re going to have to make some tough decisions. And it might be that a guy that’s been here for a few years, he might get down at the trade deadline. And when someone hears me say that saying, Well, what what are you doing? You’re trying to win? Well, you’re creating a spot for someone that you feel very competent is better than them. I mean, you know, they didn’t bring back Adam Frazier. Why? Because they’d have Jordan Westberg. And they have Jackson Holliday on the way, you know, sooner than later. So, you know, I mean, that’s that’s how this works. It’s why they traded off trade man Seanie when they did, I mean, that’s why they dealt other veterans a few years ago. Now. They were terrible at the time, but they felt well, that guy’s making too much money compared to this guy coming up that we think has some promise. So you know that, that that those questions are difficult because it goes back to what we were just saying these incumbents have a higher floor because they’re a known commodity. At the same time, you don’t want to sell yourself short on a player that might have a much higher ceiling that’s ready to go. So that’s where I’m hoping for the Orioles sake for this fan bases sake for where their roster is going. In terms of the next couple years. You want Colton Couser to rake this year, you want him to come up to your point look way better than he did last year, and put him in be so good that Brandon Hyde saying, Heck, I’ve got to get him in the lineup. And what does that mean for Hayes? Or what does that mean for Mullins? Or what does that mean for Santander and you know, they’re gonna sit a little bit more than they have in the past. And, look, that would be a great problem to have, you know, that’s what you want. You want to have too many options. You want to have too many guys, that you’re trying to pencil into the starting lineup every night. So I think that’s, you know, we’re getting closer and closer to that point where there are going to be some tough decisions. And it doesn’t automatically mean you trade prospects, although that’s what you know, could end up happening with the Kyle sours, let’s say in the right deal, but it might be that you trade a veteran because Colton Couser has proven that he needs to be a guy that plays 150 games moving forward. So you know that that’s kind of what you’re hoping for now. We’ll see how it plays out. You know, that are as Buck show, Walter always said with issues such as that our curiosity will be satisfied and I think we’re going to find that out. And in the meantime, I think this team is positioned to win a heck of a lot of baseball games. Even if there are some question marks here and there especially on the pitching side for me, Luke Jones
Nestor J. Aparicio 34:11
still misses buckshaw Walter but he’ll set demand and high Manager of the Year another candidate this year. They’re the best team in baseball are perceived to be here going into the season in regard to their their organization in regard to depth in regard to quite frankly intrigue, with new ownership, all sorts of things going on. We’ll be down at the ballpark this week. You can find Luke at Baltimore, Luke we are in Florida at least for the next 48 hours. till we get back at the NFL owners meetings. He is Luke I am Nestor. Happy Opening Day to everybody we are wn St. We never stop talking Baltimore positive
