Lining up to talk DVOA and an offensive O line with The Godfather of modern analytics

We all see the problems in the trenches for the Baltimore Ravens but how much impact has that had on the offense as a whole, which has been legendary in the football analytics space since Lamar Jackson arrived and revolutionized the position for the running game. The Godfather of DVOA and modern football analytics Aaron Schatz talks Ravens woes and NFL trends with Nestor.

Nestor Aparicio discusses the Baltimore Ravens’ struggles with Aaron Schatz, the architect of DVOA. Schatz notes the Ravens’ decline, citing Lamar Jackson’s injuries and a weaker offensive line, ranking 23rd in pass blocking. Despite ranking 9th in run blocking, the team’s overall performance has been subpar. Schatz highlights the importance of offensive line performance and the impact of Jackson’s health on the team. They also discuss the NFL’s cyclical trends, the value of defensive players like Myles Garrett, and the potential of young quarterbacks like Drake May. The conversation concludes with predictions on the Ravens’ division chances, with Schatz noting a 50% likelihood of winning.

Ravens’ Performance and Holiday Plans

• Nestor Aparicio discusses his holiday plans, including giving away Raven scratch offs and attending various events with notable personalities.
• Nestor mentions his recurring guests and his efforts to have them on the show multiple times a year, especially for football and baseball-related topics.
• Nestor introduces Aaron Schatz, the architect of DVOA and a modern football analyst, to discuss the Ravens’ performance.
• Nestor notes that the Ravens have had a weird year, with Lamar Jackson being injured and the defense and offensive line not performing well.

Challenges Faced by the Ravens

• Aaron Schatz explains that there are very few middle-of-the-road teams this year, with the Ravens and Steelers being two of them.
• Aaron mentions that the Ravens have been worse than the previous two years, partly due to Lamar Jackson’s injuries and the defense’s struggles.
• Nestor and Aaron discuss the importance of the offensive line and the challenges faced by the Ravens in this area.
• Aaron highlights the use of next-gen stats and ESPN’s past block win rate to measure the offensive line’s performance, noting that the Ravens ranked 23rd.

Impact of Lamar Jackson’s Injuries

• Aaron Schatz elaborates on the impact of Lamar Jackson’s injuries, noting that Jackson’s running ability has been affected, which in turn affects the team’s performance.
• Nestor and Aaron discuss the importance of practice and how it affects the team’s chemistry and performance.
• Aaron mentions that the Ravens’ offensive line has not been as good this year, with issues at the guard positions.
• Nestor and Aaron talk about the importance of the offensive line in run blocking and pass blocking, and how it affects the team’s overall performance.

Trends in NFL Drafting and Player Performance

• Nestor and Aaron discuss the trend of drafting lighter, faster players and how it has changed the game.
• Aaron mentions that the NFL is cyclical, and teams are now moving towards bigger players and more traditional running game strategies.
• Nestor and Aaron talk about the impact of players like Kyle Hamilton and how they have improved the defense when given the freedom to play their roles.
• Aaron highlights the importance of having a balanced team with both speed and size, and how it affects the team’s performance.

Ravens’ Division and Playoff Prospects

• Nestor and Aaron discuss the Ravens’ chances of winning the division and the challenges they face, including their upcoming games against the Steelers, Bengals, and Patriots.
• Aaron mentions that the Ravens are favored to win the division but not by much, with the Steelers and Bengals being close behind.
• Nestor and Aaron talk about the importance of the Ravens’ upcoming games and how they need to perform well to secure a playoff spot.
• Aaron highlights the need for the Ravens to address their offensive line issues and other deficiencies in the offseason to improve their performance next year.

Patriots’ Performance and Upcoming Games

• Nestor and Aaron discuss the Patriots’ performance, noting that they have had a relatively easy schedule and their defense has not been as good as it looks.
• Aaron mentions that the Patriots’ defense has played against some of the worst quarterbacks in the league, which has inflated their stats.
• Nestor and Aaron talk about the upcoming games between the Ravens and Patriots and how it will be a 50-50 matchup.
• Aaron highlights the importance of the Ravens’ upcoming games against the Steelers, Bengals, and Patriots, and how they need to perform well to secure a playoff spot.

Comparing Quarterbacks and Defensive Players

• Nestor and Aaron discuss the value of quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, and how they compare to defensive players like Myles Garrett.
• Aaron mentions that defensive players are not as valuable as quarterbacks, even if they are performing at a high level.
• Nestor and Aaron talk about the importance of having a good supporting cast around the quarterback, and how it affects their performance.
• Aaron highlights the importance of having a balanced team with both a good quarterback and a strong defense to be successful in the NFL.

Future of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens

• Nestor and Aaron discuss the future of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, noting that Jackson’s athleticism will decline as he gets older.
• Aaron mentions that Jackson will need to adapt to being a more traditional pocket quarterback as he gets older.
• Nestor and Aaron talk about the importance of having a good offensive line and supporting cast to help Jackson succeed.
• Aaron highlights the need for the Ravens to address their offensive line issues and other deficiencies in the offseason to improve their performance next year.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

• Nestor and Aaron discuss their final thoughts on the Ravens’ performance and their chances of winning the division.
• Aaron mentions that the Ravens are favored to win the division but not by much, with the Steelers and Bengals being close behind.
• Nestor and Aaron talk about the importance of the Ravens’ upcoming games and how they need to perform well to secure a playoff spot.
• Aaron highlights the need for the Ravens to address their offensive line issues and other deficiencies in the offseason to improve their performance next year.

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

Ravens woes, Aaron Schatz, DVOA, Lamar Jackson, offensive line, defensive line, NFL analytics, football trends, injury impact, division standings, playoff prospects, defensive players, quarterback performance, team rebuilding, football statistics.

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SPEAKERS

Nestor Aparicio, Aaron Schatz

Nestor Aparicio  00:01

Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. It is Baltimore positive. And you know what I’m doing for the holidays here, besides giving away Raven scratch off six times because we’re doing six Maryland crab cake tours of all sorts of ways, we’re starting to fake these at Lexington market. We’re going to be over constants with Gina shock Rock and Roll Hall of Famer. We’re going to be with Dan Rodricks and at the BMA Gertrude vegan crab cakes. And I’m even going to be a planet fitness and Timonium on the 21st but we’re giving away Raven scratch offs. Also give away these fantastic candy cane scratch offs that make me smell like Santa Claus at the mall. But I’m having the best guests that I can have on and like and I’m really measured about guests and stuff like that. I try to get most of my recurring characters on three or four times a year, especially if they’re football or baseball related. I try to place it lot of great stuff this week, around the baseball winter meetings, and a lot of stuff around Pittsburgh and Baltimore and anytime Luke Jones wants to bark about something analytical or statistical, and I’m trying to get him into AI so I can make my my analytics nerd smartier, smarter. But Luke says, Aaron Schott said blank, and I’m like, All right, I’m gonna write down Aaron. I’m gonna text Aaron have on the show. So Aaron shots is here. He is the the architect of all things, DVO. A I think of him as the modern scientist, the football my AI bot thinks, I think a lot of highly things, of Aaron shots as well. How are you I don’t know why I haven’t bothered you more this year. I always wait for the ravens to get on the ropes or into a space where you can judge them certainly when they were when Lamar is injured. Calling you doesn’t really do much for anybody. But we’re now back. We’re into the meat in the guts of all of this, and you have real measurements on all of these teams over a dozen weeks. What a weird year for the Ravens. You’re not here praising their incredible, Greatest Show and all time things like you’ve been here. This has been a weird mashup of year, I think statistically for you, probably too, right?

Aaron Schatz  01:57

It’s been a weird year. It’s funny, because it’s not as much that there are no great teams, but more like there’s very few middle of the road teams, and a lot of the good teams have played each other, and the bad teams have played each other. And of the few middle of the road teams, two of them are the ones we’re talking about in the AFC north, which is the ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. And so the Ravens have been much worse than they had been the previous two years, and some of that is Lamar Jackson being hurt, but there’s like two categories of Lamar Jackson being hurt. There’s games he missed, and now there’s he’s clearly hurt, but he’s playing anyway, so he’s not playing up to his usual abilities. But they’re also down on defense, obviously, earlier in the year, especially, they were down on defense, and the offensive line is not playing as well, and it’s just it’s very difficult to figure out

Nestor Aparicio  02:47

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in your science. And by the way, Aaron is you can find Aaron on the internet. You can subscribe. We’re going to go through all that holidays. I want to make sure that Aaron’s getting paid, because nobody’s doing better money. And I would think at some point teams have offered you money or offered you a job. It’s sort of the MEL Kuiper kind of way of being an analyst, and you’ve remained analytical into all of this stuff as we go into this, um, I don’t know the weight that can be put online play, because it’s so weird and it’s so individual. It’s given up sacks and pancake blocks and all and the back of the football cards in the 70s never had stats for George Coons, although, you know, my dad would tell he’s a Hall of Famer. He’s a Hall of Fame hamburger maker in Vegas. He’s told me that as well. Told me that at the Colts reunion. But I think about Hall of Fame voting and measuring and what offensive line means and what defensive line means, and everything’s a sack of sack, or setting the edge, or how many tackles you make, or, you know, whatever those measurements would be, that would put John Randall into the Hall of Fame, and not somebody else. I don’t know, but this year has changed me a little bit. You’re the stat nerds. You’re the science guys. Luke’s very much in your lane of all of that. And I think in other sports and other ways, it breaks down differently. But I’m just going to say this about this football team, after watching 30 years of ravens football here and trying to opine about it professionally, when your line stinks, it affects literally every other aspect of everything else that ever happens that would affect every judgment about any offense or any defense. And when I look at the Ravens this year, and I think we really overestimated, they overestimated how these lines were going to play. And then the Matta BK injury on the other side, but they get lost in the trenches most weeks, even the weeks when they’re winning five games in a row, they were getting pushed around by the Jets at various points in the game, and then there’s mistakes and turnovers and things that move games and special teams and like all that. But just line play. Can you speak to your science of trying to evaluate this? Because I’m wondering out loud, because when I think of the Ravens deficiencies this year, I’m thinking Kevin Zeitler at the trade deadline might have helped you as. Much as you know Tremont Jones did, or as much as a low E G, I mean, better players make a big difference for skill position players.

Aaron Schatz  05:08

Yeah, like, offensive line is very important and also difficult to measure, right? But we’re better now than we used to be. We have all the next gen stats tracking from the NFL. So we have tracking of pressures allowed, and we have like ESPN past block win rate, which measures how often the linemen keep their blocks for 2.5 seconds. And the Ravens ranked 23rd

Nestor Aparicio  05:32

so as a line, as a unit, not individually, right?

Aaron Schatz  05:35

Okay, I think Stanley has not been as good this year. I think they’ve not been as good at the guard positions this year, and it’s definitely an issue

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Nestor Aparicio  05:44

the center, as we pointed out many times, the

Aaron Schatz  05:45

run blocking is okay. Run blocking, they ranked ninth, but the past blocking has definitely been a problem.

Nestor Aparicio  05:51

When you say ranking, that’s that’s an overall thing. I’m talking about space, from Derek Henry to the first guy that can put a helmet right,

Aaron Schatz  06:00

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they’re saying the way that the run block win rate works is, do guys hold their blocks for a certain amount of time? And when you compare them to all the other lines in the league, they finished ninth, which is like a little bit above average, but I mean, it definitely, I mean, Henry has not had the holes, but he’s he’s getting better holes than saquon Barkley is this year.

Nestor Aparicio  06:20

Well, but the sleight of hand and the RPO and what that did to the hips of seven defenders every time there’s a mesh point and you get Derek Henry who might go left, he might go right, Derek Lamar Jackson who might go left, or Mike or right, or Mike, tuck it and throw it over your head or underneath of you, and everybody’s, I mean, come on, Aaron, you’ve watched this for six or seven years. It looked it made defenses very it made defensive coordinators. It certainly made, yeah, non athletic defense is very, very, very

Aaron Schatz  06:57

helpful, right? Jackson’s out. When Jackson’s out. You don’t have that fear that Jackson’s going to keep the ball. Watching the Thanksgiving game. I watched it over again, and I felt like if Jackson is hurt right now, you didn’t see it as much in his running as you did in his throwing mechanics. But I do think that teams are a little less afraid that he’s going to run the ball because of the toe injury and the hamstring that he had or that he

Nestor Aparicio  07:22

can’t go 80 yards. Yeah, he might get a first down, and he might get hurt doing it, but it

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Aaron Schatz  07:27

actually looks like it’s affecting his throwing mechanic more than it’s affecting the running the ball.

Nestor Aparicio  07:31

Well, they’re also not practicing, right? He’s not practicing on Wednesday. He’s not getting good practices. And I had Marvin Lewis on the show earlier this week, and Marvin just stopped me and said, I’m a coach man, practice is everything, like, literally, because it gives you the confidence that you’re out

Aaron Schatz  07:46

dedicated with your receivers, right? Like, do we all know that we’re running the right routes? Do we all know that we’re adjusting correctly for certain defenses, right? What if you think you’re going to go left and I think you’re going to go right and I throw it the wrong place and you got an incomplete pass? So you guys need to practice to get used to each other.

Nestor Aparicio  08:01

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Where are you on trending and stopping this in drafting more, lighter players, a lot of the things the ravens are doing are finding some sort of Kyle Hamilton to come down and be a little bit of a hybrid player. I would say the NFC thing was uncanny, right? For how many years that they they’re just not prepared for it. They just don’t know how to play it. They can’t play it. They can’t do it for four quarters, and they could stop them for 54 plays. It’s play 55 through 59 they get you get your ass kicked, and they winds up cost you 35 points. Because that’s how crazy it was week after week after week, year after year with the NFC teams, different for Cleveland and they have, you know, some game records, and Schwartz has got those guys, but even with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh or Kansas City buffalo teams that have seen the Ravens a little bit more draft, a little bit more that way, think a little bit more about that in the offseason, I think the whole league is caught up to thinking that way now, and it’s, it’s changed the game, right? Lamar, he’s changed the game, right?

Aaron Schatz  09:03

Well, yeah. I mean, he does special things, and if you’re in the division, you have to prepare against him. And the same with Hamilton, is a very special player, and you can see it from when they free up Hamilton to be Hamilton, the defense improved significantly, like they went out and got a low high Gilman, and that freed up Hamilton to move around the field, and the defense improved significantly. But I mean, you talking about the size of players, things are actually moving towards bigger players, right? Everything in the NFL is cyclical, and we’ve kind of reached the pinnacle of lighter, faster players. And then people were like, well, we should run the ball more. So now you have things like the Rams using all this 13 personnel with three tight ends and trying to stuff the ball down your throat. Or the bears against Philadelphia last week, stuffing the ball down your throat and

Nestor Aparicio  09:49

or the bills running through the Steelers, as we’re on it this week, right?

Aaron Schatz  09:53

Literally, although it’s interesting, the bills is less about power, because Cook is more of a speed guy. But yeah, running through the Steelers Absolutely. Well, but the run is what happens to the bills. The bills have a very light defense, and every team runs on them. The Steelers actually, strangely, didn’t have much success, but other teams have run on the bills plenty well

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Nestor Aparicio  10:11

it John Harbaugh, even you know, who lies plenty from the podium, but told the truth about it. This means, like, the game’s designed to run the ball, because you can run the ball. You don’t need to pay, you know, like, literally run the ball all day on you. And I guess

Aaron Schatz  10:24

you can get five yards of carry, which is very good. But if you can get five yards of carry, then you run on first, you run on second, you don’t even have third, and you just move on with your

Nestor Aparicio  10:32

life, right? And all day and and get back up and take their their will away, literally. I mean, that’s what Derek Henry was designed to do here, specifically in the second half of games where you get ahead, is just going road great you and yet, so few teams are good at stopping it to your point, like if you load up and you get yourself a card, you know, you have a hard time over four downs of stopping that from happening

Aaron Schatz  10:59

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in general, passing is more efficient than rushing, and so teams have built to stop the pass, because passing is more efficient. And so it’s cyclical. Then rushing becomes more efficient than it used to be, because defenses are all playing the pass, all those Fangio defenses with the two safeties back. So now you’ll see things move more towards the run, and then it’ll hit a point where it goes back the other way. Everything has been cyclical in the NFL for 50 years.

Nestor Aparicio  11:25

Aaron Schatz is here. No one knows the game better. He is the godfather of DVO. A if you don’t know what that is, your kids get out on the internet. Learn some more football. Luke would say you need to be studied up a little bit more so you know what’s going on out there as the ravens and the Steelers get together again this week, what do you make of the franchises and the teams and as they’re put together? One of my themes this week is something very bad is going to happen to the team that doesn’t win the division from in regard to, I don’t think hardball is getting fired if they don’t make the playoffs. And there’s a lot of money involved in both of them in a lot of different ways. And Cincinnati, if they beat buffalo, look out. I mean, I’m just saying they have the best player. They have the best standing player right now in Joe burrow, based on what I saw last week, not, certainly not the supporting cast, certainly not the defense, but it was good enough. It played well enough last week on five turnovers for the ravens, they’re going to kick it around and everything about the ravens, including Vegas, and the people that bet on this and their big favorite again, you know, this week, everything has been like they’re going to round in and in January, you’re not going to want to see Lamar and Derek Henry and Kyle Hamilton and roquan Smith get off the bus no matter where your boss is, Bo Nix or Drake may or any of these neophytes. Daniel Jones, whatever it is that the Ravens could take care of their own if they can win the division. And then it was like, well, they’re one in five. They got to win a lot of games. Well, they got to win all their games. They got to win some of their games. Aaron, they’re not very good. They got their ass kicked last week. We’re laughing about Pittsburgh, and they’re a touchdown favorite. And I go figure right? The quarterback’s not right for everything we’ve talked about, they’re not winning at the line of scrimmage. All these things have happened. And then I look over the hill, they got to go play Drake May. They got to go play the Green Bay Packers on the road to Lambeau. They got to go to they got to play Pittsburgh twice, and Cincinnati. And I’m thinking, three and two, two and three, four and one, like nine wins, 10. What’s going to get them in? And can Cincinnati come and catch but I keep thinking to myself, for whomever doesn’t make the playoffs, this is going to be problematic. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a quarterback if they don’t make it, but the ravens, specifically, there was such expectation here. They’re just making the playoffs and getting their ass kicked by Kansas City or Buffalo in the first week. That’s not going to feel good around here either, because this does not feel like a Super Bowl unit over the body of work. For me,

Aaron Schatz  13:48

it’s very different. The ravens are. They were built to win the Super Bowl and then players declined. Things went wrong. Injuries happened. Lamar Jackson is clearly not healthy. You have to ask yourself in the off season, which players can rebound and get healthier, which players are on the way down? Who needs to be replaced? The Steelers were built to be average. So it’s a very different with the rate with the Steelers. I think fans are like, how many years are we going to do this, where we build a team to go nine and eight, right? Like, are we when are we going to finally rebuild? When are we going to finally tear this down and build another champion? Whereas with the ravens, it’s more like there’s specific things that went wrong this year that we need to fix, but a lot of the talent is still here, and we should be able to build it back to the top with a lot of the players we have right now.

Nestor Aparicio  14:42

But can they do it by January? No,

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Aaron Schatz  14:45

but, I mean, it’s more like for, you know, a if we get in, we win the division, that’s nice. We probably lose in the playoffs. Let’s talk about what happens in the offseason. You know? What does Ronnie Stanley have left? Can we get another corner? Back, you know, things like that with Pittsburgh. It’s like, what is our whole mode of being for the last few years? Like, what are we doing here? That’s, it’s much more of a sort of big question.

Nestor Aparicio  15:13

Aaron Schatz is my guest. And one last thing, you went to the New England game, though you live in that region, and run me through the Patriot thing as you see it, because we’re going to see them soon. We know what Cincinnati is. We got them next week. I found myself drawn to the Patriot game the other night, just in sort of like, what is this? And then the Giants, not very good. And I’ll keep an eye out. But I’m I mean, the Patriots and the Packers being on the schedule for the Ravens creates incredible peril for them that even if they get by Pittsburgh that last week, they’re still going to have to go to Pittsburgh and win at the end. And that’s never good. I mean, this thing really feels like a lot of mud for five or six weeks, and New England and the bears and Denver, you know, all these they’re all counting into double digits and smelling themselves and feeling good, but they feel unproven to me. But this feels like the time of the year where I take note. I mean, I wouldn’t pay any attention to the pack patriots or the bears five weeks ago now, all of a sudden, it’s like they’re going to get in one seat in a bye. You better start paying attention to them, because you have to go through there.

Aaron Schatz  16:13

The Patriots are 11 and two. Can you guess how many teams the Patriots have played that currently rank higher than them in my numbers,

Nestor Aparicio  16:23

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I have no idea. One

Aaron Schatz  16:27

the bills, that’s why, how many teams they have remaining on their schedule that are higher than them in my numbers? One, the bills, that’s it. The ravens are a little bit below. I thought for a while that the Ravens were going to be the game that, like showed that the Patriots were not as good as people think. But now I don’t think that, because the ravens are having these problems. So I think that game is very 5050, but I don’t think the Patriots are a ton better than the Ravens. They have played a remarkably easy schedule. Not May, May. Has been fabulous. That defense has played the easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks in the league, and so that past defense in particular is not as good as it looks. May is he is absolutely an MVP candidate, but the Patriots defense is not as good as it looks. And it’s weird for me to say that, because I’m in the press box that you let with all these patriots reporters going, Well, hey, we’re not. It’s not the best team in the league, despite having the best win loss record in the league. But they’re, they’re, they’re not. They’ve played a very easy schedule, especially for the defense. Well, I think

Nestor Aparicio  17:34

that’s what’s made the year fun. Is like last week, Luke was all ramped, ramped up last week, and then they get their ass kicked. And now, and everybody’s bears up this week, right? The bears and and the Patriots. And it’s like, you know, there’s always an egg to be laid here in December for somebody somewhere.

Aaron Schatz  17:50

Bears have played the second easiest schedule in the league, by the way,

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Nestor Aparicio  17:54

well and but the Ravens have put themselves in a position to not have turds in the same way the Kansas City’s put themselves there. I guess buffalo is just going to be a wild card. Wild Card, and it’s gonna be what it’s gonna be, you know, for them at this point. But I mean, for the ravens, for the Steelers, for Kansas City for, I mean, just dog fights, for a lot of these franchises that you just penciled in, because Indianapolis and the chargers and the Jaguar, the other teams are sitting in these seats right now. And it’s weird. I mean, this time last year was Josh Allen, Lamar, MVP, mahome was going to win the Super Bowl, and now it’s like all three of them could be sitting on the outside watching watching this one outside.

Aaron Schatz  18:33

A lot of it is good teams beating each other up. Kansas City has had a tough schedule. Houston has had a tough schedule. Philadelphia has had a tough schedule, whereas the Patriots have had an easy schedule. The bears have had an easy schedule. The Panthers are just crazy. The Panthers have ridiculous if you look at their week to week performance, the way it pings back and forth between good games and bad games is kind of insane. I mean, they lost to New Orleans for crying out loud, and then they beat the Rams. So that team makes no sense whatsoever. It’s been a very strange year. I mean, it’s, it’s, it really does. I mean, my numbers really like Seattle and the rams that whoever comes out at the NFC West number one is the favorite for the Super Bowl. But overall, I think Vegas is right that this is very much a year where any team could win it.

Nestor Aparicio  19:21

You know what’s crazy for me. I had this long relationship with Jim Schwartz, like you do. And Jim Schwartz introduced me to you and in the Hoosier dome, many years ago, 20 years ago, when he was still with, I think, with the Titans, at the time, DC, at the Titans, and he said, Hey, this guy, this guy knows a lot about football. He’s like into into this stats thing, this analytics thing, before Moneyball, before any of that happened, and that defense and the Ravens haven’t seen them. And miles Garrett, I literally was sitting because this is what a nerd like me does. Sit around a bed in the middle of night, and some people count sheep, and I count MVPs. I’m kidding, but last year was Lamar and Josh Allen. And, you know, Luke’s like, well, I, you know, I guess Stafford will be the MVPs quarterback or whatever. And I see, you know, Matt Ryan, always guys praising him. That’s great. And you will see how they turn out and, and I’m thinking to myself, miles, Garrett’s the best player in the league, and what he’s doing is otherworldly. But how freaking valuable can he be when a team’s going to win two games, right? I’m going to tell you that that’s crazy, right?

Aaron Schatz  20:21

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Miles, yeah, that’s why you can’t have a defensive player as MVP. You could not have a defensive player playing better than miles Garrett is right now, and that team has three wins, and last year, Garrett was almost as good as he is this year, and their defense wasn’t even good because the other 10 players had problems, so like you just they’re just a single quarterback is just so much more valuable than a single defensive player. Even though Garrett is freaking like, what does he have 19 sacks? It’s absurd.

Nestor Aparicio  20:51

Compare him to something in that way or what he does. I mean, what will the comparison? I guess. Reggie, why? I don’t know. You. Tell me now. Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor. I mean, Lawrence Taylor.

Aaron Schatz  21:00

I mean, Lawrence Taylor is a little different because he was a linebacker, so sometimes he would drop into coverage a little bit. You know, back in the day, in the 80s, outside linebackers and defensive ends were not interchangeable the way they are now, right, right? We have the term edge rusher now to indicate that players go back and forth between those two positions, depending on the scheme of the team in the 80s. It wasn’t like that.

Nestor Aparicio  21:25

There really wasn’t different Lewis would laugh because I had him on earlier, because he had McCrary and ball where and there was a whole thing about putting your hand in the dirt right. Put your hand, yeah, you put your hand in the dirt. Linebackers put their hands on their hips right.

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Aaron Schatz  21:37

Like even when Lewis was a DC, there was more of a difference between an outside linebacker and a defensive end than there is today,

Nestor Aparicio  21:44

but he was a part of that. Dungey and those guys were all part and kiffins, old man, all a part of changing that right? Like, as far as what that position and by the time Suggs came along, it was a thing, right?

Aaron Schatz  21:57

Yes, Suggs is. Suggs is kind of a back and forth. He more go back and forth, go back and forth between the two edge rusher prototype of like, today’s edge rusher who can play either pretty well, but yeah, I mean, Garrett is so outstanding, so fantastic without double him all the time without help, he’s just incredible. So yeah, Reggie White is a great comparison, all right, Reggie White. Reggie White, in 1987 had something like 20 sacks in 12 games. He didn’t play in the scab games, so we only had 12 games. That’s like the best sack season ever. I had

Nestor Aparicio  22:34

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season tickets, section 721, right there for row one at the vet, right behind home plate. It was corner of the end zone, but I was a season ticket owner.

Aaron Schatz  22:43

We lost the Colts. We lost the call, right? That went between teams. Yeah, my buddy Russ lecher got tickets.

Nestor Aparicio  22:47

He became an eagle. See, he’s still got his eagle starter jacket from 1986 he looks like Randall Cunningham, a little bit like baldy. Quite frankly,

Aaron Schatz  22:54

people basically probably had to pick between the Eagles and the Redskins, right? Y’all were halfway in between, so he had to pick one of the other

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Nestor Aparicio  23:02

Tom Clancy, who later bought into the Orioles once famously said, and he had a little bit of a Baltimore accent, he said, I rather sell my children to the gypsies than root for the Redskins. Well, that works shots is here. Give you a little history here as well. So last thing for um, I’ve made this case. And if this isn’t my man crush on Joe burrow or any disparaging of Lamar or Patrick mahomes or anybody else, but if he gave me a pick to pick a football player in the league to start my team with right this minute for the next 345, years, it would be Joe burrow, despite the injuries, despite all that, I think he’s the best player, and he’s the guy I would in the same way that somebody would make a Marino case and not Elway, or make a case for any I would have taken Elway. I’ll take Elway. You take whoever you want. Lawrence Taylor takes whoever you want. I’ll just take my chances with that guy. I feel that way about burrow, and maybe it’s because he got the Bengals to a Super Bowl. Maybe it’s because he’s hurt all the time. Maybe it’s because we’re in the division, but I just think he’s better than in my homes, too. Mahomes is more creative. I mean, Lamar is more athletic, all that. But for me, it’s burrow. Who’s yours?

Aaron Schatz  24:17

First of all, if I had to pick any player to start a franchise right now, it would easily be Drake may okay, because Drake May is that good, and he’s young, so he might get better, whereas I think borough has reached, this is the peak of how good burrow can be. And same with mahomes, and same with Lamar Jackson, as good

Nestor Aparicio  24:39

as going to be, he could be Aaron Rodgers good for the next 10 years, because he’s that good

Aaron Schatz  24:43

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going into the season the way I was, I said it is. I thought Joe burrow was very clearly the fourth best player that I couldn’t tell you what the order was between Alan Jackson and mahomes, but I thought burrow was a step behind them. And I still kind of do think burrow is a little bit behind. Like those three guys when Jackson is fully healthy, and I know Alan’s having a little bit of an off season, but I would put burrow and may a little bit behind those three guys right now, with the difference being may, might get better than this, because he’s so young.

Nestor Aparicio  25:18

Listen and when I say this stuff, people here lose their minds about Lamar because Lamar is approaching 30 now. He ain’t young. He’s not going to get better in regard to being a running threat. No, no, no. What happened that part of his game is going to be either taken away or has been taken away or will be taken away in it’s just not going to look in the way that you’re gonna be writing deep, okay, I mean athleticism.

Aaron Schatz  25:46

He’s gonna lose his athleticism. That’s how it works.

Nestor Aparicio  25:49

And I don’t think you’ll ever be as good as throwing the football as Joe burrow in my

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Aaron Schatz  25:54

great pocket quarterback, though, even when Lamar Jackson is stuck in the pocket, he is great.

Nestor Aparicio  25:58

And maybe the real argument between you and I, Aaron is like the supporting cast, because with Joe burrow, I mean, I see Orlando brown around there still blocking it left tackle. He’s not even left tackle. But like, so for me, the supporting cast, burrow smells a lot better when Chase and iggens are out on the field, right? I mean, like he’s Joe Flacco. Smell Great, you know, with those guys out there. And the same thing is true for Lamar. I think it’s unfair to even judge Lamar on this year to some degree based on the offensive line and everything else is sort of collapsed around him, including the defense the first six

Aaron Schatz  26:28

weeks of the year. Yeah, especially because of the fact that he’s been hurt in two different places. I do not walk away from this year thinking Lamar Jackson is worse than I thought he was before. I think he can definitely rebound next year to be close to what he was last year, if he’s healthy, and Allen probably can be better than this, and mahomes has been great. I still think those are the three best guys, mahomes, Allen and Jackson, and I wouldn’t put them in any order. They’re the three best guys.

Nestor Aparicio  26:55

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If Lamar is going to run less into the future, he is less valuable. Yes, absolutely, in that way.

Aaron Schatz  27:05

McNair, and it happened to Steve Young, and it happened to even flutey, a little bit. Cam Newton, right? Yeah, you, you. The fact is, you get into your 30s, you’re not as athletic. It’s just life.

Nestor Aparicio  27:16

Cam Newton’s wearing a funny hat on TV, and flack goes out throwing the ball, you know?

Aaron Schatz  27:20

And Aaron Rodgers, very funny hats, blown away by the way Cam Newton dresses. He is a,

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Nestor Aparicio  27:29

you know, an iconoclast. I’ll just use that word that’s good. Aaron shots is an iconoclast too. He’s the godfather of D, V, O, A tell everybody how to find you set up, help you pay your bills, keep you doing the science of football in the highest level that you do it.

Aaron Schatz  27:43

Most of my stuff is at FTN fantasy.com and if you have a subscription to the FTN stats hub, not only do you get all of our award winning fantasy projections and betting advice, but you get all the DVO a stats and we do charting so you can see things like who’s best against man compared to zone, or who’s best against one high compared to two high. You also find me at ESPN, and you find me on social media. I’m on Twitter, x at a shots NFL, and I’m on blue sky at Aaron schotts.com

Nestor Aparicio  28:22

my man, Aaron shots, no one does it better than he does it. And I would say, well, I’ll check back in with you at some time between now and Santa Clara. You know when the times get troubled, you’re like my my Simon and Garfunkel, you’ll be the bridge over troubled water.

Aaron Schatz  28:35

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The way I’ll finish it is the Ravens. We do have the Ravens favored to win the division, but not by much. They win it about 50% of the time in our sims, with the Steelers at 44 and the Bengals at six,

Nestor Aparicio  28:48

gonna win it by the skin of the pig, is what we’ll say at this point. Aaron shots, go find him out on the interwebs. Nobody does it better. And Luke remains your biggest apostle and acolyte, and I always appreciate you picking up the phone and and joining us and really helping educate me and trying to clarify things as we try to get better at football. So we try to do around and try to learn football a little bit. We also try to eat crab cakes. It is the Maryland crab cake tour, six tour stops this month, including the Raven scratch offs. I’m also going to have the candy cane scented tickets, because I want my whole place to smell like the holidays, as long as that smell like juniper. I am Nestor. We are W, N, S, T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We never stop talking Baltimore, positive. Do.