Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders takes Nestor inside the upcoming NFL Draft and how other teams are viewing their quarterback options with or without Lamar Jackson. And none of them are trying to get $200 million guaranteed and get a team to give up two No. 1 draft picks for that right.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
ravens, lamar, quarterback, draft, play, year, leigh steinberg, springsteen, players, people, lamar jackson, run, agent, josh allen, teams, thought, gangster, baltimore, months, negotiate
SPEAKERS
Mike Tanier, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
W and S T, Towson Baltimore and Baltimore positive or positively taking the Maryland crabcake tour out on the road we’re gonna be doing lots and lots of dates. I am lining up all sorts of stuff and we’re starting to party on the fifth of April we’re going to be accosted, celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Maryland lottery. The Costas is an original lottery distributor in my homeland. Dundalk will be there from two of the five on the fifth and then on the seventh, we’re going to be at the family’s downtown at the old Lexington market getting ready for Springsteen and the eagles to open the new CFG Bank Arena. It’s the morning after opening day on the sixth so we’re gonna be downtown all around Pappas Bel Air in April. We’re pulling into Captain Larry’s in late April downtown Federal Hill and trying Mars delicious crab cake that I’ve heard so much about So Big time, big stuff. And also brought to you by our friends at window nation. 8669 D nation, you buy two you get two free and you get 0% financing for 24 months. My wife was looking at a car I was talking to Dennis over coons for financing is a big deal zero percents a big deal for 24 months take advantage of that and window nation this guy is a running gun gangster and and because he’s a running gun gangster, I’ve got some Show and Tell for him in this particular segment because I’ve been buying stuff on eBay since the Ravens chats deal threw me out I got all my season ticket money back on my air like so I’m just I’m buying $5 newspapers and stuff. And I’m this guy is so into the draft and I haven’t talked any draft for four weeks out on the draft, Mike to near has been my friend, one time algebra teacher to the great Joe Flacco Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco like to spike the ball on that. And he we welcome him back in from that Aaron on last week. And he said, You gotta call today or if you want to draft off and I say to Philly, I mean, I know it’s been tough times up there losing championships,
8
Mike Tanier 01:49
love tough times losing championships, and I missed Springsteen, you know, we talked it over in terms of our budget, and it’s like, are we gonna go to see Springsteen or not my wife and I, and we opted for that. And as it turned out, he missed a couple shows before the Philly shout. So it would have been touch and go whether we even got to it but other than missing Springsteen and losing the Superbowl, whether it’s beautiful here in Philly, everything’s going well, while
Nestor Aparicio 02:11
Springsteen’s coming back, he’s going to stadiums, he’s playing Camden Yards, he’s going to be down here in Baltimore on the seventh. So there will be another opportunity. And I will tell you, I Springsteen was in great form and State College, I saw the State College show the other night. And this is where I picked up all these old heirlooms and sticking around with a picture already and telling old Oreos 1966 World Series newspaper stories, give me some fresh from you. I mean, it’s all of them are here, right? I mean, you can imagine if this were the Philadelphia Eagles in your market up where you are in this circumstance, and what’s happened here can play in the playoffs. It’s obviously there’s bruised feelings there are, you know, I don’t know if it’s reparable or not that the nonexclusive tag, where do you sit on this? I mean, I love your insights on the league. And I know you’d like to break the games down and talk about the X’s and O’s. But this time of year to Jimmy and to Joe’s and it’s time for paying not a time for play. And this is for our city. This has been one of the biggest stories that that I’ve been a part of in 31 years. Because the I don’t think anybody I don’t think John Harbaugh knows if he’s going to be his quarterback or not. I know if he knows if he wants them to be or not.
Mike Tanier 03:19
Yeah, well, I mean, I think he wants them to be in the sense that not only is Lamar a free agent, but the backups a free agent as well. So it’s not like there’s a plan B there’s not even a Plan C right now, besides retaining the rights to them or at least bringing him back on the franchise tag and you know, this keeps a bobbing almost on a daily basis but only as a whisper down the line thing you know, these things do not come out of even the formal channels of agents we know and I can say about it is all the things that can go wrong when a player negotiates for himself have gone wrong from the lack of communication back and forth to the bruised feelings elements of things so I think what we’re seeing and hearing a lot of Lamar mark right now he went in representing himself or with this represented representation he’s got which is kind of like not normal and not even
Nestor Aparicio 04:07
8legitimate literally not not recognized by the standards that a recognized representation
Mike Tanier 04:14
Yeah, that’s what I’m trying to say and so many words so you know, you have this guy come in and and Lamar heard some things you didn’t want to hear because when you negotiate sometimes you come to the guy and say, we need you to be XYZ we you’re not perfect, you’re not flawless. That’s the things you say to Drew Hurst Rosenhaus Leigh Steinberg, and they relate to the player Lamar hears them fresh, Lamar gets upset about it. Lamar goes into a funk and says this representative and the Ravens don’t want to talk to this representative or don’t want to take it seriously or don’t want to negotiate. These are all the things that can go wrong, and they are going wrong. And I don’t see. I don’t see a normal exit strategy for this except for the fact that the ravens, no matter what unless somebody makes an offer, retain the rights to Lamar Jackson. He cannot do anything else but play for the Ravens or essentially retire
Nestor Aparicio 05:01
it the fact that it’s come to this, right and the fact that you see this, I see I spent the morning listening to Gary, when you speak at this insight connects event this morning, and everybody’s coming up to me. And I’m in a room with grownups and business people. And they’re all like, like, this kid has lost so much money, that he’s never going to get back. And when you consider that he played for $20 million less than he should have last year where he and and did not help his case that there that there is no mystery $250 million bid are out there at this point. And I don’t think, you know, if Jim RSA wants him, it’s not going to cost $231 million to get him because I don’t think I think the Ravens will just say give me your picks and go because like, he doesn’t want to be here. And I think it’s gonna be very easy for the Ravens whenever they decide the part to say he didn’t want to be here, if that’s the case. And if somebody comes in with a reasonable contract, and the Ravens really love him long time, and they really want to Kumbaya and they feel like they can have a kumbaya. I mean, he wasn’t at their playoff game. I mean, just the optics of any of this. And you mentioned Leigh Steinberg and I’m gonna pay homage to Lee because Lee did the show yesterday. I hung out for a while and I forgot to show this to him. Back at you know, I was a Houston Oiler fan, right? So when you do all this run and gun gangster thing that you do your little Baltimore board that you had, I found this on the internet, my man and this is okay. It actually fits me. It’s it’s not a gamer. It’s a it was a fan jersey. This was like 120 bucks and 1989 When I wanted it, and I didn’t have 120 bucks, Springsteen was only 20 bucks that literally right tickets to the games were only 20 bucks, but all the license stuff was really expensive and stupid. $33.97 I bought this online. I use my bartering skills to talk him down for 50 bucks, and I delivered and even smells okay because I made so I am the original running gangster. Yeah, we’re gonna shoot gangster. I’m giving that to you. So yes. So anyway, you mentioned Leigh Steinberg and the first thing you’re like is I saw the graphic the other day that he has to play for 33 million this year, Josh Allen will have made 160 million and he will have made 59. That’s unbelievable.
Mike Tanier 07:20
Yep. Yep. And this is the thing that like on Twitter, people like to like cheerlead for Lamar Jackson. I love Mr. Jackson. I would love to cheerlead for Lamar Jackson. If I’m a fan, I can truly for Mr. Jackson, there are analysts who like to cheerlead for Lamar Jackson say, well, that doesn’t matter. That doesn’t matter, because he’s going to stick to his guns, and he’s going to get what he wants. He’s already so far in the hole. Nobody wants this is already so far in the hall for not taking what was available, or at least negotiating based on what was available into something different. That is, you would have to have this angel investor show up with to 130 guaranteed to get out of it. And again, like you said, that person is not appearing right now. Because in addition to the injuries and addition to the fact that there’s a sketchiness around how you go to his representation, all the things you mentioned at the end of that season, well, what is the state of your ankle? And is it the state of your ankle? Or is your state of your heart and soul for the NFL right now that you weren’t at these playoff games that you didn’t, that there was no effort to come back? These are all questions that all these teams are looking at. And none of these teams need a quarterback solution anymore, except the Jets who are not about to be married to Aaron Rodgers and the team. That’s not
8Nestor Aparicio 08:23
a marriage. That’s just that that’s a weekend. That’s him and one of those girls he was on the internet with. He’s here six months.
Mike Tanier 08:30
He’s a Henry the Eighth marriage is Saturday. But because there was a big to do because we have to bring him in from some other nation to solve the problem. And he doesn’t get his head chopped off. He’s the one who chop somebody’s head off in six months.
Nestor Aparicio 08:44
I have a feeling that won’t have a happy ending for Joe Douglas. So somehow, I’m just thinking that’s not going to be yes. Joe Douglas signed his death warrant with
Mike Tanier 08:50
8us. Yeah, I
Nestor Aparicio 08:51
don’t know. I you know, I love Joe. So it’s hard for that. But, but
Mike Tanier 08:56
he didn’t sign his death why Woody Johnson issued his death sentence by saying do this.
Nestor Aparicio 09:02
When When, when the owners dictating the quarterback, you get Jimmy Haslam and at the heart of this when I talked to Leigh Steinberg, he’s like that contracts in a part of the market. It’s not an outlier. It’s part of the market. Now. What’d you think of Lamar? You want to beat him up about not playing and this and that, and the style and how many runs and do I have to change my offense? And more than that, and the thing that there’s so many layers to this, and Eric’s the smartest guy in the room and went to Indianapolis came back, put the nonexclusive on him. And here we are, you know, we’re all waiting for the phone to ring. So the Ravens knew the market that that’s what experts do in the same way that Leigh Steinberg or drew Rosenhaus would know the market for Lamar and would have negotiated this better for him. But as the days go on for all of this, the salary cap space that would need to be made available for any other team. That’s really to me the issue is what am I going to cut five players giveaway today? RAF picks to bring this kid in who I’ve never even met an agent. And when it comes time to, to get salary cap help two years from now when we get good, how are we going to get him to come back to the table and do what every quarterback in the league does, which is take now money and give money back to an agent. It’s It’s mind boggling to me, Mike Wright
8Mike Tanier 10:25
does not have an agent. But we’ve seen a couple of players Laremy Tunsil, who know how to work this system without having an agent because they understand these things. And they probably you know, they have a lawyer. So if somebody who’s giving them advice, but they recognize this, I get the impression Lamar Jackson doesn’t really recognize these things. But he kind of believes that because of his incredible talent that will open the doors for him. And at this level, that’s not enough that will open the door to franchise tags. It opened the door for whatever they offered last year, the Ravens etc. But if you want to go that next year, you need an expert, you need an expert. I’ll say this, by the way. He mentioned how the Deshaun Watson contract is in the market, it absolutely is in the market. The Patrick mahomes contract is in the market, the half billion dollar contract is in the market. But Josh Allen even looks at that and says no, that’s not what we’re going to negotiate our way up to nobody’s looking at the Patrick mahomes contract and say we need that billion right now. They realize that when you sign outlier, but it’s a different structure. Anyone who’s trying to get a contract right now looking at 250 million guaranteed over five years has to consider that as a different structure that is probably not in the best interest of us in the best interest of my client, but not the people I’m negotiating with. And therefore it’s unlikely extremely unlikely to happen and could get in the way of what they can really get, which is 200 million guaranteed 100 90 million guaranteed staggering guarantees, work their way up to 250 million, but you have to space them out all these other things that are on the table, if you know how to negotiate them.
Nestor Aparicio 11:54
What do you think’s gonna happen?
Mike Tanier 11:56
I think he’s going to play under the franchise tag this year. And on the one hand, normally, I think they would have kept fireball out of this to a degree so that Harbaugh could be a peacemaker day to day. But that hasn’t really happened. Because when he doesn’t show up for the playoff games and his abilities question, I think hardball is somewhat frustrated. I have
Nestor Aparicio 12:17
8said that they’re done with him. I mean, the fact that they’ve dangled a mitt like they kind of want to be done with him in my mind. If they’re not that they want to play football without them. But they just don’t, they don’t need they don’t like drama. And this is this is nothing good for them. They hate
Mike Tanier 12:33
drama. So if they really don’t, then they should be on the phone with the Jets right now, saying Come on, let’s just you want a younger guy who’s not this weirdo out here that you can count on for 234 years, we will play ball with you, etc. And maybe they’re doing that maybe Joe Douglas is trying to find this agents or get something. But the Ravens don’t have any good exit strategies, either. That’s the thing. If there was somebody out there and they all match the offer, and then we’ll go I think they would, but bringing in mungkin some of the other things I did that these are not like come on back to the fold, Lamar Jackson situations. That said, that seems to be the only scenario that makes any sense.
Nestor Aparicio 13:10
It doesn’t feel good either way, Mike Teniers here he is the running gun gangster, I’m the running shoot gangster. Thank you for clarifying that. And so draft it. Back before when the cost and hardball were doing their lies at the Indianapolis combine that I was locked out for the first time in 27 years. And you were there I think in participating I was watching on the interwebs and you know watching them praise Lamar and, and the cost got in trouble with the wide receiver room and like all of that that happened. But I thought to myself, well, wow, if this is the here and the now and the time that they’re gonna part really part with Lamar and find a suitor. And at this point, I thought the Panthers were in play. I thought the bucks were in play. I thought the saints were the teams that we thought were in play four weeks ago that aren’t anymore. Obviously some of them gave a lot of money to a lot of players and took real directions that said we don’t want Lamar that when when I thought that was in play, I really thought like the ravens are going to be looking at these quarterbacks and it’s going to be important because they’re gonna get one of them. And that’s that this is going to be the next guy. And that doesn’t feel like it feels like if I talk to you three weeks ago, we would have been talking about that. I don’t think that that’s the play. What’s the play here in regard to the draft itself and these quarterbacks going at the top and how this is gonna play out for weeks.
Mike Tanier 14:30
Well, in terms of the draft and the quarterbacks, you’re going to see Bryce young CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson all go in the top 10. And I don’t think in trading up to get into that top 10 I don’t think it’s going to be an option for the Ravens in any meaningful sense. After that, the drop off is significant. I know a lot of people talk up relentless, as a possibility, the more people are actually looking at well lettuces tape and film from 2020 to the more they realizing this is not a solution. So then you get to your next level of guys, and you’re talking about people like And then Hooker from Tennessee, who I kinda liked but I think is only like six months younger than Lamar Jackson or something like don’t hold me to that but it’s like a significant thing. A hooker is like a six year senior, he’s coming off of an injury. There’s guys like the kid out at UCLA, Dorian Thompson Robinson, these are not good options. These are not better options and then your backup right that’s invented. That’s it that you want to get the winner to go out there. I couldn’t run I couldn’t run a game for Georgia quarterback. I could have won a game we had
8Nestor Aparicio 15:30
top monkey now we got him want to get the quarterback? Sports Radio. What do you think about these things here?
Mike Tanier 15:37
He’s gonna come in here. And it’s like, yeah, he’s gonna come in there. And, and you know, he can
Nestor Aparicio 15:43
look like the sixth round quarterback that you drafted.
Mike Tanier 15:46
8You look like the little guy coming off of a DWI, who’s small and old and handed off handed off to everybody and let his defense win games so yeah, the solution is not there. solutions out there for the Ravens the solution is there for the Houston Texans to grab Bryce young CJ strap, that solution is not there for the Ravens. That guy you think you’re gonna get served fourth, fifth round is a very low percentage chance of doing anything.
Nestor Aparicio 16:12
How many years? Do you teach math
Mike Tanier 16:15
1770.
Nestor Aparicio 16:17
i For those listening on radio and if you’re watching to near did the power teacher move taking the glasses off in tremendous frustration when I mentioned that’s embedded the teacher power moves for the draft itself. And yeah, we always speak and Raven needs here. Obviously, Patrick Queen might be moved between now and you know, there are things that are going to happen here in regard to clays Campbell visiting and Marcus Peters and last year’s team will not be next year’s team at all. Yeah, deep in the secondary, you know, things that the Ravens feel like they can get in the draft. And again, they only had five draft picks and they dealt out to get a seventh round pick and chuck chuck Clark and what I’m they’ll probably get a couple more picks back. Yeah. What are they going to find in this draft? What is this draft about
8Mike Tanier 17:06
quarterbacks coming out of their ears when in doubt, teams should just grab a quarterback unbelievable amount of talent the amount of these guys for six foot one six foot two can run can run for 440s can move laterally and then understand what they’re doing out there aren’t just sort of like chasing guys around can read routes. There are so many of them. You can get one in the first round you get starters in the second third round at quarterback edge which I know that the Ravens always love to look for edge and in rough edges they can develop there’s a lot of talent in terms of that developmental edge if you want to get a guy out there like Lucas Van Ness who has an unbelievably good athletic profile he would be available I’m trying to find the name of the young man now from iOS Earl McDonnell who was stuck playing like defensive tackle at 235 pounds and every time they would move him to the edge you can see how like quick and bendy were these are the kinds of guys they could develop the young man from USC who I get I gotta pull his name up so I say it right.
Nestor Aparicio 18:07
Oh, well when they drafted him I was a fan of Bravo and I thought
Mike Tanier 18:11
of alright in terms of being a good ravens for epic because you’re usually being brought a robot behind Caleb clay Campbell or you’re being brought along behind somebody else? No, we haven’t seen that elevation really I don’t think yet but but they like getting that year three guy like that defensive player who in year one does very little year two there any rotation year three. There’s a lot of that kind of guy like I said the young man from USC chewy Tula Oh my goodness. To pull out a isn’t that a guy like 265 pounds built like a brick has a couple of different moods. These are developed more that’s out there. What there’s not a lot of is go to wide receiver we can say this wide receivers here and this is going to be the guy. It’s a lot more of super little 75 pounds soaking wet. Little screen pass run the bomb, small target to hit over the metal runs like the when there’s all these
Nestor Aparicio 19:05
8guys that are six, two, they make them corners. They groom them to be corners. Hey kid, you’re good athlete. You’re not a wide receiver. You’re a corner, right? I mean, that’s literally when these kids are 14 years old, and they can pedal backwards. They turn these kids into corners because they’re more valuable. What
Mike Tanier 19:21
happens in high school is they play both ways. The corner receivers both ways then they get into college. And the judge machine decides which way you go but the schools that are running tons and tons of spread offense and they’re looking for these five foot seven five foot eight speedsters and they’re happy to get them and those guys don’t do well on defense because you can run out them and plow them so you find out especially this year the bigger guys the bigger athletes are all over cornerback.
Nestor Aparicio 19:45
Well, Mike today you’re giving us a a full spectrum give us a lowdown on where all your inside information as Aaron did it last week. I want to give you a chance to talk about the outsiders in the insiders and the DVO a and all that you guys are doing out there to bring football nerdery to loot Jones and others who love the game,
Mike Tanier 20:02
well come out check out football outsiders. Right now in terms of draft stuff, you can check out the Etho 100 That is my 100 player countdown that will get you through the three rounds. You’re a Ravens fan, you want to get like a three round mock draft in your mind you can look through all the prospects, we’ve got stats, we get quotes from the players, but you got scouting reports also have something called the fantasy 40. So if you’re more like look, I just want to see if we can get a receiver running back maybe another tight end, etc. I don’t know why because you have plenty of tight ends you lost all of her so you get a tight end, you could check out the fantasy side that’s available and of course we’ve got the DVOA you know the thought leader in terms of analysis is there come to fo if you like it become an fo plus subscriber you get access to our fantasy data, our gambling data and our data data all year round.
8Nestor Aparicio 20:46
Well, you know you got Reggie White behind you I got Warren Moon with me, you know, just I think every time I see it I start singing the Houston Oilers song a little bit so it gives me a little bit of extra juice. Hey, man, I want to get you to a Springsteen show I mean maybe I’ll I’ll come up there and piggyback meet you and Dick Gerard, you’ll go see the boss for the stadium shows later on the summer, but he’s worth seeing I’ll just say Don’t Don’t pay too much.
Mike Tanier 21:14
I’ve seen him about 2025 times total. So yeah, I’ve been feeling it might be the one last time so I’m gonna look into that.
Nestor Aparicio 21:21
All right, well, we’ll get you there. We’ll get you there. Mike. I appreciate you football outside as you can follow Mike to new year he is running on gangster and I am running shoot gangster. We are putting the Maryland crab cakes. We’re back out on the road. We’re gonna start on April 5. We’re going to be Costas and Dundalk on the seventh word families. It’s all brought to you by the Maryland lottery conjunction with our friends at window nation on wise conversation continue around here, March Madness opening day around the corner. And I’ve come up with a new term for this and I’m debuting this this week at at Baltimore positive the Lamar Athan we are positive.com Stay with us
