The Orioles haven’t won a series so far this season and head to Arizona a sub-.500 effort with some glaring problems. Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the injuries, lack of pitching depth, defensive miscues and streaky bats of the Birds as the lineups of Brandon Hyde and institutional philosophy of Mike Elias collide on the field.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ recent struggles, including a sub-500 record and a disappointing series loss in Kansas City. They highlighted the underperformance of key players like Colton Cowser and Anthony Santander, and the challenges faced by the pitching staff, particularly Dean Kremer and the bullpen. Jones defended the team’s approach to lineup construction, emphasizing the importance of platoon advantages over reverse splits. They also touched on the impact of injuries and the need for better pitching depth, expressing concerns about the team’s ability to compete consistently.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles, Kansas City, pitching problems, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, bullpen issues, Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez, offense, reverse splits, Brandon Hyde, Mike Elias, minor league prospects, fan frustration, Maryland crab cake tour.
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We call this Baltimore positive.com. We’re going to be out on the road doing the Maryland crab cake tour this Friday. I thoroughly enjoyed my visit with Mark Viviano, as well as Ron Cassie and Luke as well as some friends. We had to tell us about the Maryland Zoo last week. So you’ll be hearing all that here this week. On Friday, we will be back at Costas. It’ll be my first approach at Costas since we lost Mr. Costas, I’m sort of waiting on that. I was kind of like Jones in ajito Over the weekend, but I laid low up at Cooper’s pub, where I had some fish tacos. But on Friday, we will be back at Costas. I will have the magic eight ball scratch offs to give away. We do have some guests confirmed. I’m working on some other people. I think being a ransom is going to come over talk some college basketball with us this week. I have other college basketball guests this week. I can’t tell you how much I miss John Feinstein right now to talk to him, especially after Duke got eliminated. But it is baseball season. Luke and I will get back to all things Justin Tucker and counting, Mister Bucha and Mister har ball money and all of that. But the baseball team went out to Kansas City, about to head to Arizona, will be up late on Monday. And Tuesday is an afternoon game on Wednesday, and Luke, it’s it’s sub 500 it’s sub optimal, and the loss of Colton cows are and who’s playing center field, and is it time to fire the manager? All that nonsense going on here, you laugh, but these people on the internet, I swear to God, this is why Katie Griggs doesn’t like me now. She should hear the version of me that to take her phone calls. Yeah, it’s, um, this is not the way you want to begin the thing, right? Look, no.
Luke Jones 01:42
And look, I mean, I understand people being disappointed. I mean, there’s, there’s quite a wide range between everything’s totally fine. Don’t worry whatsoever. Don’t care if they lose some games early and the sky is falling and burn it down. Burn it down. There are some legitimate criticisms, and there are some legitimate things to be concerned about, and there are other things that you just have to look at and say, look how I felt about this, or how a certain fan or how the team felt about a certain area of the club over the course of the off season, shouldn’t change that drastically in 10 games, right? Even the Dodgers, the mighty Dodgers, are going to lose six of 10 at some point this year. May only happen once, may only happen twice, but they’ll do it at some point over the course of the year. So we have to remember that I was interacting with a few folks, and reasonable takes, reasonable early season concern, but understanding it’s early. And I pointed out, just for a little bit of perspective, Corbin burns pitched in DC on Sunday. He gave up as many runs as Kade povidge gave up in Kansas City, four. He took the loss. And Anthony Santander through his first what 10 days now, 11 days, whatever it is in Toronto, he’s batting 194 and has yet to hit home runs. So there were the two big losses, and those guys haven’t performed so well. So so far this year, they will in the same way that I expect gunner Henderson to get on track after a really rough more. So Saturday and Sunday, he had a few balls right on the nose. Friday. That was actually one of the few things I liked from Friday’s game. But look, they’re four and six. It was a very underwhelming, disappointing series loss in Kansas City. I mean, Saturday was good. Friday was awful. I mean, that was, that was rebuild era kind of baseball they played Friday night, albeit in miserable conditions. But hey, the Royals played in it too, so you can’t use that as an excuse. And then on Sunday, you have Jorge Mateo filling in for Cedric Mullins, and look, I would have been inclined to keep Cedric’s bat in the lineup with the way that he swung at the same time. I also recognize that you’re not going to have nine Cal ripkens In your lineup playing every single day, and you’re trying to keep guys fresh, you’re trying to keep guys healthy, you’re trying to keep your bench players in some semblance of a groove if and when they’re called upon to play. So you got bench
Nestor Aparicio 04:07
players playing right now too. That’s really going on
Luke Jones 04:10
and really for for me, for every and we’ll get into, we’ll get into Chris Bubba and the fact that he’s a reverse splits guy, because I think that’s a really interesting conversation. I’ve had people ask me that, but specifically with Mateo. Here’s my thing. For me, if you want to give Cedric Mullins a rest, that’s fine. And obviously we knew going into the season their backup center fielder, it’s Colton cowser. Go look how many times he filled in for Mullins, just against lefties last year, because Mullen struggled so much against left handed pitching. But this team also signed Ramon liriano right before, what, two weeks before the start of spring training. And while I would fully acknowledge the metrics and various defensive metrics would suggest that he hasn’t been quite as good in center field the last couple years as earlier in his career, and he’s. Not someone you want to trot out there to play center field six times a week at this point in his career. But if you don’t trust him to play center field, and you’re instead going with Jorge Mateo, who I think off the top of my head, Nestor, I apologize for not having exact but I think he maybe 11 career starts in center field. If you can’t trust Laureano to play center field, then why is he going to sign him? Why’d you sign him? Because you know he’s going to have a very limited role. However, on the flip side of that, I also think there’s a conversation that maybe isn’t had right now because cows are out and I’m not going to feel that strongly about saying, Oh, I’d much rather have Dylan Carlson on the major league roster right now. I I’d just be lying if I felt that strongly about it. But here’s the reality of where they are with Jorge Mateo, we’ve seen now for as much as he had the really impressive what was it? 2022 and go look at his numbers. I mean, he, he was an above, you know, slightly above average starting shortstop. You know was was worth a few wins. Great defense, stole bases. We all we know that. But the last two years, the hitting has been much more. He’s good for six weeks, seven weeks, eight weeks, and his offense is pretty non existent after that. For as much as his defense is heralded, I think you would find as elite as his defense was a few years ago, the metrics would suggest it’s probably, it’s probably been a little bit overrated the last couple years. And you’re talking about who even last year, you’d say, okay, Mateo is your backup shortstop to gunner Henderson, but you have Jackson holiday on this roster now, who showed, albeit only for a week, but looked very capable filling in at shortstop, where, if something would happen to gunner Henderson at this point in time, Jackson holiday would be your shortstop. So what I’m saying is Mateo has a very, very specialized role off the bench at this point, it’s really pinch runner, and you’re hoping, okay, he can swing the bat a little bit against lefties, and you’re hoping he can fill in in the outfield in a pinch. But if he can’t do those last two things, and it’s really just as a pinch runner,
Nestor Aparicio 07:11
that’s not really a long term justification. Well, Urias, we’ve been trying to get rid of ureas as long as we’ve been trying to get rid of Mount castle, and they’re still in the lineup, and Urias is still making some plays with the glove that that makes you say, Well, I remember, this is Mateo and Urias and Henderson was trying to get in westburg. Wasn’t a thing yet, and they weren’t sure that he’s a second baseman or third baseman, and holiday is he a shortstop or a second baseman? Is Henderson a shortstop or a third I mean, they’ve had all of that. We’ve had these conversations the last three years as this thing is matured, right? And here it is matured. It’s opening day. Cows are hurt. Henderson was hurt. Rochman, we don’t know what he is, holiday. You’re kind of hoping Mullins, doesn’t it against left handers. I mean, you know, this is sort of like, you know, every day sort of Lent. There’s a day when you can and you can’t. There’s in and out, and we can’t do this on this day, and we can’t have Batista pitch back. There’s just a lot of moving. There is hearts here to be looking at Brandon Hyde and saying, Well, dude, what do you got? I mean, what are you trying to do here over cold weather, lousy weather, out to Phoenix. They’ll be in a dome. They’re coming home. I mean, they’re putting Kate povidge out there memo. They don’t want him pitching in the big leagues right now. They never wanted him pitching in the big leagues right now. They see Grayson Rodriguez. If they get to throw Kyle Gibson out there left hand that they would right now, because, like, it’s nice to dabble and see what he is and all that, they gotta win, dude. And it’s not crazy. And because every team gets in the playoffs and all of that, they’re not in a position of anything else go wrong. Because I don’t know when everything goes right with the current roster they have. I mean, you’re getting a little pie in the sky with 21 year olds and Henderson coming off and, you know, an injury thing, and no cows are and, you know, I westburg is like, a sure thing to me. Like, the more I watch him play, the more I’m like, that dude’s a ballplayer. That dude’s gonna play 15 years in the big leagues. He may never go to the Hall of Fame, but he’s never gonna go to the bench. And he’s, you know, he’s gonna play 100 140 games, you know, based on injuries, and one, he’s a, he’s a ball player and and Henderson, obviously, and I’m worried about injuries always, for all of these guys. But as I sit here and look at it and say, Dude, you’re gonna play loriano And Mateo at center field, and you’re gonna do, you know, ureas and, okay, you know, great. You’re gonna be, you know, 84 and 78 or whatever it works out to be, 7678 whatever. I mean, you’re just gonna be okay, yeah, and I’m waiting around. But the pitching is not coming, dude. I mean, that’s, that’s where I am. Where I am is, I’ve watched this for all my life. The pitching is not coming. It is what it is. It’s not going to get great. Corbin burns isn’t coming in. I you know, maybe Grayson Rodriguez is Cy Young the second half of the year, but they’re gonna really scuffle to get through nine innings every night with their pitching. And they’re gonna be nice. They hit the cover off the ball, and then, based on the way they profile, strikeouts, contact, maybe not running the bases as well as they have in the last couple of years, or to get guys on and manufacture runs, or do the kinds of things that teams that want to score eight and 10 runs don’t want to run themselves out of innings either. I just they’re going to be a three run home run team, and they’re going to hit three of them one night, kick your ass, and they’re going to strike out 14 times and have five hits against the tough left hander. Hate him. Look like Warren spawn. I have my wife googling Warren spawn, just so, you know, Luke, I’m trying to educate my wife here neighbor, yeah,
Luke Jones 10:48
I mean, I’ll hear you on that. But if it’s going to be this hot and cold offensively, then they’re then they won’t be very good. Because, I mean, wasn’t that
Nestor Aparicio 10:58
the story beginning like July 4 last year, kind of sort of to a degree
Luke Jones 11:01
to Sure, although, you know, I just had someone on social media say their offense was putrid last year in the second half, it wasn’t. They were like 13th and made in the majors and runs, it was ordinary, like, if right, I think not enough to overcome five number four pitchers, I don’t think, and it’s still question, look, that’s fair, but that’s why I pointed out the fact that, look, I know Kate povidge gave up 13 hits on on Sunday, he also gave up four runs in six innings. Now that’s not, I’m not saying that you’ll take that for 30 starts and say, Oh, wow, I’m I’m happy with the six run era. However, that’s when you give up four runs of the opposition. With this offense, generally speaking, you should still have a good chance to win, not every single time, but a lot of times. But you think this
Nestor Aparicio 11:46
offense is better than it was on so that then the lineup, well, what this offense is, is everything firing and cows are in and splits going the right way, you know, like, that’s not what it is right now. That’s what it is in our off season dreams, I think, literally
Luke Jones 12:01
understood. But at the same time, the top four in their lineup, Gunner Henderson, Adley rutschman, Jordan Westbrook and Tyler O’Neill went two for 16 with six strikeouts. So you know, you lose we can beat up Laureano and Mateo and Gary Sanchez. And look, I’m not saying I love the lineup. I certainly didn’t like Mateo playing center field, but my point is, they’ve already lost the game in Toronto, three to one. They lost the game to Boston, three to nothing. And I get it. Garret crochet pitched. I’ll even throw that one to the side. Okay, Garrett crochet could end up being the Cy Young Award winner if he stays healthy and his arm doesn’t fall off, as the Red Sox are betting big that that won’t happen. But, you know, they lost, and then they lost a four to one game. I mean, right there, that’s four games that you would look at what you allowed on the pitching side, and not saying you’re throwing a parade for it, but four games that you’d like to say, Man, you’d like to get one or two of those when you’re talking about the pitching being what it is. So the offense needs to be better. I’ve been disappointed with their defense. I mean, Friday night that was kind of, it’s kind of amateur hour, a little bit. I mean, throwing to the wrong base to let Bobby Witt score from first on a single, you know, score from first base on a single, you know, things like that. So, you know, it just hasn’t been crisp for me. It’s not even so much that they’re four and six, because, again, like I said, every team in baseball is going to lose six out of 10 multiple times over the course of a season, so we have to keep reminding ourselves of that. But the eyeball test, you know, the vibe so that, so to speak, for whatever, you know that that’s certainly not an analytical term that I’m throwing out there. It definitely, it’s it’s felt choppy. It’s felt not great in that regard, it’s been disappointing that, obviously you miss gunner Anderson out of the gate and Colton cowser goes down for six to eight weeks before gunner even comes off the IL so there is very much a sense of, oh my gosh. This is a repeat of last, you know, second half last year, when westburg was hurt, and then Arias, who was filling in for him, gets hurt, and Mateo gets hurt, and obviously the pitching injuries that they had over the course of the whole season. But you know, at the same time, we’ve said it, you and I have said it a lot. You know, going back to the off season, that this team’s going to be built on hitting the ball to win. And if you’ve played 10 games and you’ve had five of those games where you’ve scored two or fewer, I’m not saying like, let me be clear. This isn’t me saying they must score nine runs every night. But can you mix in a few more? Hey, how about scoring four runs? Right about five. It’s not like an offensive explosion, but you can win four to three. Yeah. But they’re
Nestor Aparicio 14:40
also waiting the lineup every night, lefty, righty, that they’re trying to get matchups here early in the season, and it’s not working well. And that’s
Luke Jones 14:49
See, I’m glad you said that, because now we can transition into what we saw Sunday, because this was a pretty extreme example of this, but I think this is something that we’ve seen for a few years now. Mm. Chris boobage, who, you know, someone who start or pitched out of the bullpen last year for them, but, you know, long term, has been a starter. You know, certainly Kansas City has eyed him to be that. You know, they’ve eyed up him to be that guy. And he’s very much been a reverse splits guy. And when I say reverse splits, of course, that means he’s actually done better. He’s a left handed pitcher. He’s done better against right handed batters, as opposed to laps. So I think what’s interesting is we’re going back to the previous era where Bucha Walter and whatever semblance of an analytics department the Orioles had then, which was quite small, and there was very much a lot of debate whether how much Buck tapped into that, and how much of it was siloed, and whether there was even that much communication. But Showalter was very much a reverse splits kind of manager, to the point where it could be a very small sample. It could be results from five years earlier, you know, between a pitcher and a hitter that he would lean into that. I think what we have seen with Brandon Hyde, and I think fans are quick to criticize Brandon Hyde on this, but I think this is very much an organization wide thing, because of what we’ve known going all the way back to Moneyball and thinking back to, you know, regardless of how the movie portrays it, but the book talks about this as well, but we know that front offices are heavily involved in lineup construction. This is not 1984 where take your pick of a manager and Earl Weaver’s about, you know, Earl Weaver’s a bad example, because Earl used analytics much more than other managers before even knowing what that term even meant. But this, this isn’t the days of 40 years ago where all every maybe there’s a few managers here and there, but we know that it’s collaborative, and we’ve seen the Orioles, and Sunday was an more extreme example, but we’ve seen the Orioles typically trod out lineups that don’t put a whole lot into reverse split situations or even individual matchups. You know, some hitters, individual history against that night starting pitcher. And I think, look to be clear, if it’s a small sample, or, in the case of, you know, I think back, and I’ll use an extreme example here. You know Chris? Let’s think of Chris Davis. The last couple years he was in the major leagues, right? Because he had big numbers against a given pitcher six years earlier. Did that really mean anything at that point in his career? No, it didn’t so, and I’m using an extreme example to make a point here. But I think what we have seen now over the course of a few years, and people are so quick to blame it solely on Brandon Hyde. And I’m not saying Brandon Hyde is completely absolved. Let’s be very clear about that. But my point is this is a front office and a baseball ops and an analytics department that has now changed the left field dimensions at their ballpark twice in the last four calendar years. So you’re telling me that they see the same thing that Brandon IDE, you know, of Brandon Hyde, in terms of ignoring some reverse split match ups and things like that, where they would just let the manager continue to do that if they didn’t agree with them. And my point with that is, I think it’s a collaborative thing. Now, let me be totally honest about this. This doesn’t mean the Orioles are right about this. Maybe they should lean into that a little bit more. In fact, Sunday, I one thing. Well, there is
Nestor Aparicio 18:33
a book, and they play by it. Now, the way sigma plays Blackjack, and that’s the way they do everything, like everything is based on odds and split. There aren’t gut decisions anymore. Well,
Luke Jones 18:43
I think, but I think what we’re seeing because they do not play the reverse splits that are out there, I think they’re telling you they don’t put a whole lot into that. And I think they would tell you that their modeling spits out just the general platoon advantage is the most optimal way to do it if you’re going to sit up a regular or two, as they did on Sunday and and all of that. So you’re
Nestor Aparicio 19:06
arguing math and science, and somewhere in there, Eric, the cost of this art, and part of the art is pulling pictures and stuff. When a guy doesn’t look right, sure and
Luke Jones 19:15
look, that’s, again, to be clear, that doesn’t mean that Brandon hides, just, you know, pushing a button, and is, you know, that that he doesn’t have any input whatsoever, or
Nestor Aparicio 19:24
you’re seeing guys and saying, This guy don’t like hitching this guy’s swing. I don’t want him in there today. Sure. You know, there’s all of that that goes into and
Luke Jones 19:31
they’re trying to keep guys healthy, as as we mentioned. And you know, this is where we can look, peek ahead very quickly,
Nestor Aparicio 19:37
catches the ball. We’re probably, you know, we’re talking, I don’t say they’re going to win the game, but like, we’re not bitching, right? Yeah, it’s
Luke Jones 19:44
not a three run inning. Well, we might be, because he’s look completely lost at the plate so far, just generally speaking. But also point out, they’ve got three right handers they’re going up against in Arizona. So you know, again, the chance to load up. Let’s get a couple of these right handers in the lineup on Sunday. A couple guys a blow. I get it. It’s 10 days into the season. I’m not sitting here saying that Cedric Mullins needed a day off desperately on Sunday, or maybe he did. Maybe he was dealing with a little something, and they’re not going to broadcast that, because I’ve, as I’ve said to you, teams are they’re becoming more like an NFL team, as far as not being fully transparent, but, but my point with all of that is we’ve now seen this for a few years, where they kind of go against the grain of what a reverse split situation would say, where, hey, this guy is a left handed pitcher, but lefties hit him really well, which was the case with Chris Bubba on Sunday, whereas the Orioles loaded up with right handers. I think that would tell you their modeling and their strategy and their approach. Would say they value the traditional platoon advantage more so than what you know. And I don’t want to say it’s a small sample, because, you know, it’s not like this is a guy who’s a rookie you’d never pitched before in the major leagues. But they would say that falls more under the category of statistical noise for us again, they might be totally wrong. Let me be clear. I’m not saying that they’re right, because you may you made mention of something in terms of the eyeball test. You know, you talk about Mojo, momentum,
Nestor Aparicio 21:12
whatever. Well, Buck Showalter manage on a vibe that No, no,
Luke Jones 21:17
no. Buck was an extreme. He was a very much reverse blitz guy, but there were other times, right? I mean, there’s always nuance with this. But one thing that I wanted to throw out there where me personally, how I would kind of view Sunday and the lineup on Saturday, Jackson holiday and Heston kerstadt, two young left handed hitters both had run scoring hits against the left handed pitcher. Now that doesn’t mean I’m I’m eager to start them against Garrett crochet and Tariq school and some of the hardest lefties to face at all of the majors. But is there something to be said off the coming off of that facing a lefty who does have reverse splits, whether you put a whole lot of stock into it or not, that maybe you trot them out there and give them a start then against the left the lefty, I think that’s fair again. This is not me defending the Orioles that they’re right 100% No,
Nestor Aparicio 22:08
no. Well, what works? So it’s easy to second guess, sure,
Luke Jones 22:12
and it didn’t work. So, so maybe that’s where you do need to take a look at it. But my point is, before we just start, and when I say we, I just mean fans were frustrated. And look, it was a frustrating weekend that was not a good series of baseball. That hasn’t been a good start to the season. Well, they have more series yet, right? So. But instead of putting all of that on Brandon Hyde, Mike Elias isn’t sitting in his office just stewing, saying over and over, I can’t believe Hyde, you know, put another line, they would correct that. They would either have a long talk and they’d correct it, or, you know what, someone else will be managing the Baltimore Orioles at this point. Because, like I said, we’ve seen this too long, too many times at this point to not think that it’s more of an organizational stance that, hey, their modeling says we don’t care as much about reverse splits. We’re not going to care quite as much about individual history against a certain pitcher on a certain night. We want the platoon advantage. And I think you’ve seen the lineups reflect that. And I don’t think that’s solely a brand and Hyde thing by any stretch of the imagination. Because again, why would we think that when we know again, this team has twice changed the the distance of its left field wall because of analytics and looking at, you know, how the ballpark plays and all that. So, so we’re really going to think that the general manager in the front office is just going to ignore the manager continuing to play lineups a certain way if they disagreed with it. I mean, I’m not buying that. I’m just not.
Nestor Aparicio 23:42
Lou Jones is here analyzing the analytics. The Orioles will be analyzing some late night baseball. They get going around 940 at night. So get the toothpicks out, get the rest in. Work out some coffee, whatever you need to work out, Luke and I’ll be back after it, after each of these games this week in wrap them heading home this weekend, we’re gonna be a cost us on Friday, by the way, for the Maryland crab cakes were presented by the Maryland lottery. Pitching, we we haven’t done anything on the pitching, you know, Kramer and and the bullpen and how early they’re going to have to go to the bullpen on so many nights. And, yeah, where are you on the pitching at this point? I just, I’m, I’m way more on fire about the pitching than you were shining were a couple weeks ago, even Viviano last week. I it’s, it’s not good enough. I mean, they’re going to need to do something well. I mean,
Luke Jones 24:43
I mean, it’s not going to happen 10 days into the season. I don’t, I don’t think you’re going to be able to make a move that’s going to move the needle to that degree, you know, short of, okay, Kyle Gibson coming and I think
Nestor Aparicio 24:53
they’re going to scuffle. I don’t think they’re going to get 15 games over, five under, like this. That’s all, even if they hit the ball. Well. I mean, I think they’re gonna, they’re not gonna get well pitched games often at all. Really, they’re not
Luke Jones 25:06
okay. I thought, see, I thought you were higher on the pitch. And going into the season I was,
Nestor Aparicio 25:10
but I’ve watched it for 10 days now, and I’m worried about okay, you know?
Luke Jones 25:13
Well, I’ll leave it at that. Nothing in 10 days is changing my mind about how I felt. Um, effin has been what you would expect him to be. He’s been very good. I thought Sagano pitched pretty well on Saturday. You know, I certainly it was good to see him get into the sixth inning. He ran out of gas a little bit, but it’s also a second major league star. Just because he’s 35 doesn’t mean I necessarily expect him to pitch like a seasoned veteran in the major leagues from day one now, he’s got to pitch well, and he’s got to be able to do it, but he might
Nestor Aparicio 25:45
be their best pitcher when it’s all over with, once he figures it out, he’s got potential. He’s got potential to be really, you know, confounded, at least confounding. Sure, yeah, there’s a certain element to that. I mean, he’s got, I mean, he’s got five or six pitches, you know, dude, if they’re going to be 15 games over 500 he’s going to be the reason. I mean, someone’s going to pitch right, that that’s they’re going to be that team that’s going to stack series wins. Dude, wake up here. They’re stacking series losses right now, when they win a year without losing a series, right? So like they start to stack this series losses, right?
Luke Jones 26:19
A year without being swept, they lost series. Okay, fair enough. No, no, I know what you mean, though, but
Nestor Aparicio 26:25
they haven’t done a lot of this stumbling in the last two years. Sure,
Luke Jones 26:28
sure. No question, because they’re bitching. But again, but again, we have to remember Nestor six out of 10. They have lost six out of 10 plenty of times over the last couple years. So, so, but it is magnified on the heels of what the off season was, and it’s magnified on what the second half of last year was. So that’s where I I do understand fans being frustrated and a little bit of here we go again, and this isn’t great, and there’s no Corbin burns and Santander is not in the heart of the lineup, although I, as I pointed out, neither of those guys are off
Nestor Aparicio 27:03
to dude holidays, a question mark. Rutchmans a question mark. Cows is no longer a question mark. He’s an out right. Henderson hasn’t been an in. He’s just getting but all of that, to me, affects the pitching for what the expectation has to be, because I expect a lot out of the offense, the pitching I you know, we all to a man, though, like, especially with Rodriguez being out, that it was going to be a scuffle. I think it’s more of a scuffle than even that, because of the bullpen issues and because of the length. And I don’t think that they’re I think back to back to back to back, they’re not going to get three well pitched games in any given series the way they were getting eight out of 10 games for a season and a half of really good pitching before burns even got here, they got really good pitching two years ago too. I don’t think they’re capable of that this year. I don’t think these guys are capable of that. And I don’t think the bullpen is better than it’s been at any point. Matter of fact, I don’t know you can make the case right now. It’s the worst bullpen they’ve had over three years. Certainly, two years ago with Batista, was a whole different game, right? But everything about the operations, less than it’s been, the offense isn’t as good that the defense still up in the air, but they’re playing I mean, I have to give them the Mateo thing. There’s no part of this team that looks the way this thing looked last May, when it was really firing, and most of the summer before, when it was really the cake was baked. I’m looking for signs of any of this, and it’s going to have to take a whole lot for me. That’s all.
Luke Jones 28:32
I mean, I, you know, I we’ll see. I mean, look, I had concerns about the pitching. I’ll be totally honest. I think the bullpen, other than CNL, Perez, has actually been fairly decent. I think the now, will it hold up having to cover four plus innings every single night, the way that it’s kind of trending then, yeah, I’m in total agreement. But you know, I think the bullpen has been, at least shown positive signs, although Perez doesn’t look right to me, and Velo was down and but other guys have looked better than I thought. You know, Dominguez has actually been pretty good since his first outing of the year. And Soto is that guy that, as I’ve said, he’s a wild card. He can be really, really good when he’s right. But well, then bakers and guys without options. Baker’s been, Baker’s been really good. Yeah, his stuffs look good. I’ve and I have not been a Brian Baker guy the last couple years that all that said, if they’re having to cover four plus innings more more often than not, then, yeah, it’s probably going to melt down because of what you just said. You don’t really have the flexibility of optionable pieces. You don’t really have a long man, although Matt Bauman has actually given them a little bit of length, even though he’s not a guy that you think of as a swing man six starting pitcher in the way that Suarez was projected to be in that role before landing on the ILS. Yeah, and
Nestor Aparicio 29:54
he takes Suarez innings out now, searching in at some. Point, where’s the Rodriguez thing for you? Is he going to pitch this year, next month, next I
Luke Jones 30:05
mean, it’s, it’s impossible to say right now. I mean, he’s just getting to the point now where he’s going to be throwing bullpen. So I, I think now where he’s starting to throw with more, a little closer to max effort, rather than more touch and feel 70% whatever, looking more Memorial Day as like a barometer. Yeah. I mean, maybe a best case scenario at this point, if you kind of look at where it’s trending, because he at this point, he’ll need at least a few starts in the minor leagues right to kind of ramp up and so, I mean, maybe is there, is there a path for him to be there at mid May? Maybe that might be the best case scenario at this point. But a lot of it’s, how’s he going to feel? How’s it going to look? I mean, I think, I just think there’s a lot of unknown. I don’t want to throw dirt on the guy and say he’s not going to pitch at the same time. I’d be lying to you to say that I have the conviction that, yes, he’s going to come back and be totally fine, because this is the third time in four years now where he’s dealt with at least a moderately long period of time where he’s missed actions. So if
Nestor Aparicio 31:01
you would have told me, after they got their ass kicked last year by the Royals in October, that there would be no Suarez, no Rodriguez, that you know, that they would be looking at that right now, and the burns obviously coming back, and no Bradish, which they knew, and no wells, and no you know, like all the guys that were already gone, means, you know, all the guys that were gone gone. It this is the enthusiasm that they have built through new ownership. Right Angelos is dead and gone, and Elias is here, and he’s the village idiot, because all these guys arms are falling off, and Brandon hides the village idiot, because right handers can’t get things done, and Mateo can’t catch the ball in center field whatever. I just look at the totality of all the injuries, the money spent. I mean, they spent twice as much money this year as they did last year, and the team’s not as good. And and I’ll look at it right now and say the team’s not as good. And all that being said, all the hope for holiday, all the hope for Henderson to be these magnificent baseball players. I’ll even hear all that, but my God, they got a pitch. And even if they’re magnificent ball players, the slumpy part of baseball that I’ve seen this team go through because of the strikeouts and modern baseball and whatever, swinging and missing the ball is still not a good thing for my mojo. But you know, you analytics nerds can have at it. I just it can get a little sour and get a little cold, and I don’t think the pitching is ever going to be great. I think they can hit the cover off the ball for two weeks and win 10 or 12 that way. I’ll hear all of that. I just don’t think the pitching is going to be good enough to put them in a position where they are. And I’m fascinated by the minor leagues. I’m fascinated by Rubenstein’s money and their positioning and their disappointment, and what a 74 year old owner is trying to get done when he’s really trying to win, as opposed to whatever the hell the last I mean, I’m going to take him on face value. I’m writing to Katie Griggs this week. I think he wants to win. I think they want to spend money. I don’t think they didn’t really know what they’re doing or how to do it, but they’re trying like hell, and I think it’s just hard to go by pitching this time of year, I and I’m worried that they’ll be eight games under 500 Memorial Day, because there’s that is possible. I I’m more worried about that at this point than I am thinking they’re going to be 10 games or 12 games over, and things are just going to be fine, and they’re going to parachute the way they did the last couple of years, where they’ve been very good. And I think the fans here, they’ve been very good the last two years. I mean, against you were born in 83 dude, right? I mean, they’ve been very good two years in a row. It’s kind of hard to hold all that together, even if you spend another $80 million and I think that’s the weirdly disappointing thing of all of this. Now that we’re into it, I’m looking at it a little bit and saying, pitching, oh, you know, you know, that’s all. I
Luke Jones 33:47
mean, I’m just, I’m just a little amused because you were the one taking up for their approach at the pitching. And like, you’ve completely changed that quickly. I mean, I was always concerned about it.
Nestor Aparicio 33:57
Why does see, I look at the every three or four nights. And I think, yeah, they have the probables of a team that’s a 500 team, not the probables of a team that three out of five nights is going to, you know, come get you. They’re going to come get you one out of five nights right now, we’re hoping for Chicano right? Rodriguez isn’t coming. Back there. None of the rest of these guys are. They’re coming. Charlie Morton’s not that right now. Kyle Gibson, none of these guys are that. Suarez wouldn’t be that if he were in it. Well,
Luke Jones 34:27
someone, someone’s got to be that. I mean, then they should. Then Mike Elias lit $28 million on fire. Then, I mean, I hear what you’re saying. And look, we also have to let this play out some. I mean, these guys have had two starts. You have to hope. I mean, Dean Kramer has been, you know, over the last three years, has been a league average starter. I’m not saying that’s anything to give them awards for or a contract extension for, but more often than not, over the last three years, the Dean Kramer has given the Orioles a solid chance to win. Most of the time when he goes out there and pitches, and you have to trust that he’s going to do that again, you know, Friday. I mean that how much of that was him, and how much of that was the defense being lousy, and, you know, just, you know, but Dean
Nestor Aparicio 35:12
Kramer’s had a lot of nights where he’s been in the fourth inning, given up four runs and seven hits, and he’s 86 pitches in, but the offense has five, yeah, but they’ve hit a three run home run in the first and manufactured one in the third. And they’re winning. You know, I I’m okay, there some nights that’ll be there. Some nights it won’t be,
Luke Jones 35:31
well, it’s gonna have to. That’s how they’re built. I mean, I hear what you’re saying about Mike Elias. Was Dave garland. This is the bed that they’ve chose to sleep in. They don’t draft pitching. They haven’t developed a whole lot. They’ve developed some. And like I said, I’ll give them credit for some of the success stories that they have had. I’ll give them a heck of a lot of credit for getting what Albert Suarez gave them last year. You know, a guy that was 34 years old and hadn’t pitched in the majors in, what, seven years. So I’m not saying it’s been completely nothing at the same time. I can’t sit here and have any sympathy for an approach when you have some pitching injuries, when you haven’t prioritized drafting and developing pitching. So if you’re not going to draft and develop it, and you’re not going to dip your toes into multi year contracts for pitching, I mean, what the heck do you think you’re going to get then? You know, like, these guys aren’t just gonna, like, drop out of this. You’re
Nestor Aparicio 36:25
gonna buy one year veteran starters and cross your fingers and hope they can get you to the fifth innings every fifth night, and that you’re and that your offense doesn’t go stone cold, that when they get there, they’re you’re not losing five to one. That’s all okay. And that’s been a little bit of that. Luke and I are. I don’t look I’m not down on them. I’m just trying to reset the evaluation of where they just can’t change my mind after and where they are right now.
Luke Jones 36:52
I guess for me, I just to me it changing your mind after 10 games, just, I
Nestor Aparicio 36:58
don’t think I’ve changed my mind. I just think they’re in an uphill badly, or with the pitching, that’s all no and I think that, and I, and I’m waiting on the and I wasn’t high, but I don’t think the inning is going to be as good without cows or and, you know, the Santander O’Neill thing, we’ll find out. I mean, okay, spend a lot of money on it. One
Luke Jones 37:13
thing you did say that I’ve got to push back on a little bit. I mean, you kind of made gunner out to be in his fourth and MVP last year and rookie of the year the year before that, he needs to be at he’s their Aaron judge. I mean, you know, you know what I mean, like,
Nestor Aparicio 37:26
he will be the reason Dean Kramer’s winning five to three in the fourth inning, but instead of losing four to one. But my
Luke Jones 37:32
point, right? But, but, I guess the point I’m trying to make in the gunner I’m using is, you know, he’s leading the way, or needs to lead the way. And I’m, you know, I’m not, I’m not going to get too hot and bothered over the fact that he struck out four times on Saturday. I mean, it’s the second game of the season. Didn’t have missed most of spring training, right? I mean, all that you know, Raphael Devers, who has a much longer track record than gunner Henderson, looked like Chris Davis the first week of the season, you know, for the Red Sox, before finally started getting some hits and, well,
Nestor Aparicio 38:01
the thing that worries everything you just said is that injured young didn’t have a spring training in might not figure it out till July. Might be in 238 all of a sudden,
Luke Jones 38:10
then they then it won’t be good, okay, well, but I’m just, you know, but if we’re going to lay out the worst case scenario for everything that happens, then most teams are going to be doomed. Then, you know, I’m not sure. The Dodgers like, no. I mean,
Nestor Aparicio 38:23
the Yankees lost all their pitching too. So I don’t think anybody’s running and hiding here. I’m I’m just basing this on what I’ve seen over 10 days in regard to their pitching. And they’re hitting, sort of meshing and matching up. And for them to get the kind of mojo, they’re going to need to be winning two out of three instead of losing two out of three. That’s all.
Luke Jones 38:40
That’s all. That’s fine. I just, you know, I mean, I I just think it’s funny, because I feel like I’m sticking up for the pitching, and I was way. And my point is, I was just, I was more down on the pitching all off season than you were. So I’m just, I don’t know, it’s just funny to be we’re doing the lefty,
Nestor Aparicio 38:53
righty reverse, yeah, yeah, yeah. Luke Jones can be found at Baltimore, Luke, we will not be nearly as argumentative if they play some damn ball tonight, you gotta win. How about wins? Wins? That good? Is that good Weaver? I got that going for you. There will be a liar’s luncheon at some point. We got Easter, we got masters. We’re gonna hit the golf ball. I’m doing a little Maryland residue. Len Elmore is coming on this week. At some point, we’ll get some rock and roll in here as well. And on Friday, we will be at Costas doing the Maryland crab cake tour for the very first time without mister Costas. I’m looking forward to seeing some friends telling some stories. We’ll have the magic eight ball scratch offs to give away huge list of crab cake tour stops, including next week we’re going to be at the Beaumont over at Catonsville. Week after that, we’re going to be up at Cooper’s North doing some good stuff for leukemia, lymphoma society, as well as on the 30th. We’re going to be at Cocos. And there’s a rumor that I’m going to be doing red brick station in White Marsh at some point in May too, because they got that blueberry beer that I like, they put the real blueberries. And it makes me happy. It is springtime. I swear in the Orioles are going to keep us up late. He’s Luke. I’m Nestor. We’re going to do some bay. Some football, some basketball, some hockey. Alex, avec and we’re doing it all. We’re Baltimore positive. Stay with us. You.
