As the Orioles head to New York and Minnesota to clinch a wild card berth, Luke Jones and Nestor take a hard look at the Birds’ playoff hopes with a week to get the rotation, bullpen and roster ready to try to shock the baseball world in October.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
bullpen, week, game, burns, point, run, play, year, pitch, orioles, talking, oysters, team, feel, ball, suarez, hit, good, day, baseball
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
8
Uh, welcome home. We are wnst. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore, positive. I’m in the middle of this crazy oyster tour. I’m wearing my liberty pure shirt. I have my liberty pure water. One 800 clean water. If you have a well, if you have plumbing, they do the they came and did an incredible job of plumbing at my place. Give them a call. They’re there. They they keep your water clean. My water clean, just like the oysters. Keep the water out in the bay clean. I’ve been eating a lot of oysters about 17 days into this right now, all over the place, going from Annapolis, went up to Cecil County over the weekend. I’ve been out to Frederick for oyster shooters. Have been all over the state, all of it brought to you by friends at the Maryland lottery in conjunction with Jiffy Lube multi care, put the crab cake tour together as well. We were failies last week. We’re going to be a cost this this Friday, and we’re going to be a pizza Johns in Essex on the 11th. We have postponed, yet again, our state fair event from Tuesday with county executive, Angela Ulster brooks of Prince George’s County, she is running for for the US Senate. And Larry Hogan’s also been invited just so we’re square on a day when we’ve done a lot of residue on football and 22 point lead and Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh and Justin Tucker and the offensive line, and I just go through the whole list of all of that. And we got plenty of time to talk about Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills coming in at Sunday night football and then Joe burrow next week. But Luke Jones and I have made a living and and I think when it really comes down to it, if I gave Luke what Charlie Ekman would call the saliva test, the true serum. He would tell me and you that he loves the Orioles and he covers the Ravens at this point. And you love baseball, and you still endure. And know a lot about football and watch the 70 Sixers and whatnot, but baseball’s your thing. You’re an old soul. Lucas Jones, happy pre birthday, by the way. I’m looking forward to some pizza with you on the 11th as we celebrate some birthdays. My kid had his 40th birthday over the weekend, and unlike you, who was alive and just a little little little Lucas with daddy at home watching the 83 World Series. My kids never seen a championship. He was born when the Tigers were winning the World Series in 84 so I would just say this is the biggest baseball week at the dental next week, and then the following week and but this is, this is, this is where Bill Parcells, this is why you lift all them weights. Uh, we’re getting down to the nitty gritty these games in New York, and they’re going to be a wild card team. Where are they going to be? How the pitching going to Matt like but losing series after series after series, I know the one series they can’t afford to lose is the one next week,
Luke Jones 02:56
yeah, and that’s where this week’s a little strange in the sense that it’s not they have a little bit of business to take care of, right? The division’s over. I mean, they’re not winning out. The Yankees aren’t losing out, right? I mean, that’s that’s over. So it’s the wild card. And you go into the off Monday’s off day up for Kansas City may not make it. I mean, they can’t win a game right now, but, but Detroit took two out of three from the Orioles. Of course, they’ve been playing really, really good baseball these last few weeks. I mean, talk about you mentioned the 84 tigers. It’s not quite that for the Tigers in the month of September, but they’ve been on a roll. And certainly, if they get in there, they’re going to be a team that, you know, whoever the favorite is is going to be looking at and saying, oh, yeah, I don’t know if I want to play them, but, you know, Kansas City is struggling. You know, Minnesota, you know, the Orioles. There’s a very distinct possibility the Orioles are playing in Minnesota this weekend. We know that’s happening, but it could be followed by Minnesota coming to Baltimore for the wild card round. I mean that that’s the way it could play out. So, so there isn’t a ton on the line for the Orioles in the sense that they need to go six and oh here, or they even need to go five and one, or even that they need to go four and two or three. They’ve got to win. Presumably, a couple of these teams that they need to lose will lose at some point here in the next few days, and they’ll clinch. They’re still in fantastic shape mathematically for the top wild card. You know that that would have to be a an O and six, one in five, and then one of these other teams just go not goes nuts, because even the tie breakers mostly work in the Orioles favor. So there’s not a whole lot on the line in terms of the outcome of these final six regular season games, other than Okay, get the clinch out of the way, and then it’s getting at bats. Jordan westburg returned on Sunday. Ramona Reus returned on Sunday, Danny coulomb returned Friday night. You know Jacob Webb we know returned last weekend. You know the Brian mountcastle, presumably we’re going to see activated at some point. Here over the next couple days, as he finished up a rehab assignment with Norfolk, who’s done now. So it’s either activate them, or maybe you have them play a sim game or two, or something like that. So we assume we’re going to see him. We’re still waiting on Grayson Rodriguez. Obviously, that’s on skates a little bit more in terms of when and if that’s going to happen. But you, you coined it last week, and I think it was very spot on, especially now knowing that, unfortunately, these Oreos, Yankees games aren’t going to mean a whole lot, certainly to what it means for the division, because the Yankees, you know, have it all but locked up officially. But this is an opportunity to align some things. Get guys some at bats. Who needed bats? Try to see if you can get some guys on the right track. You know, this is another weekend where Santander is walk off. Thursday they hit a season high five home runs. Friday night, Corbin burns looks excellent again. You know, back to back starts where we’ve seen the best version of Corbin burns, which obviously you want going into the month of October. But then they take another step back on Saturday and Sunday. You know, Saturday they got, they got a decent outing from Kate Povich, you know, good enough to win, but the gunner hits the the game tying double and but they can’t get the winning run home. And, you know, you just bullpen and, you know, frustrations there. And then on Sunday, Albert Suarez wasn’t great. They come back and then, you know, they give up the lead almost immediately. So, or give up, you know, they give them the lead back after it was tied. So
Nestor Aparicio 06:33
consistent. Thing here is that they’re not hitting the ball, yeah. I mean, I mean, that’s really the issue right now, and they need to hit the ball next week. Yeah. I
Luke Jones 06:40
mean, there’s that. I mean, I still, I still don’t feel great about the bullpen. I feel better about it with Danny kullom and Jacob Webb back in the mix. But, you know, is that a bullpen that feels particularly deep right now? No, but you’re right. I mean, by the way, they’re gonna see the Yankees and the
8Nestor Aparicio 06:56
twins. They’re probably gonna see the twins next week, and if they win, there, you know, like, this is the pitching that they’re going to need to hit. You mentioned the Tigers might sneak it right, like it’s, it’s this time of the year, and this kind of pitching that talk about timing and everything you want to see. And by the way, even over the weekend, seeing the shadows fall over the diamond, the whole thing looks up and feels different this time of year, doesn’t it?
Luke Jones 07:22
Oh, it definitely does. And right down to, you know, even on Friday night, you know, it was a 7051, of those Apple games that I know we all love so much, but it was dark. It was pretty much dark at first page. We’re very close to it anyway. And that’s, you know, you get that feeling after when you’re at the ballpark in June and July and August, and it doesn’t get dark to the sixth inning, seventh inning, and now you’re in a position where, yeah, it feels more like fall, but, but you’re right. I mean, they’ve got to get their offense going. And you know, it was great to see Mullins at a home run, and certainly great to see westburg Back in the lineup and on the field. Great to see Ramona Reus back in the lineup on the field. But for those guys, it’s about getting them at bats. You know, it’s about trying to get other guys going. You know, I think Brandon Hyde has to walk a fine line here that, you know, this is not the scenario from last year where you get the five days off and, you know, you’re trying to figure that out. You do want to try to get some of these guys off their feet a little bit once you’ve clinched, once you’re in a position where it’s locked, you’re locked in to where you’re going to be, and they’re still in a position where they can do that, if they just get a couple wins early in the week, relatively early in the week, you’d like to, you’d hope, by Saturday, let’s say, those last couple games, you can take your foot off the gas a little bit, just in terms of being sensible, getting guys a blow, knowing that you’re going to be right back at it Tuesday, you know. Anyways,
Nestor Aparicio 08:46
really run around on Friday night and sport champagne on each other and act like fools after, yeah. I mean, I know they will, and that’s the way it works, and that’s the way it goes and stuff. But I’m thinking to myself, it certainly does feel like a stumble to whatever this you having to put on goggles and a wallpaper to go down there and and see him run around celebrating that they lost a division kind of, sort of, I mean, like this is doesn’t feel celebratory. I guess that’s all I’m saying. It feels like it’d be very as a fan, as a citizen, as a stakeholder, in Mr. Rubenstein’s, excuse me, Mr. Eric Getty’s franchise. You know, it feels anticlimactic and it feels very hollow to be running around and saying we got in. I mean, well, better win next week.
Luke Jones 09:39
8I think, look, I think we also need to recognize, for as frustrating as the last few months have been, this is going to be the second, the first time since 1996 and 97 that they’ve been in the postseason back to back years. It’s a hell of an accomplishment. It’s a long time, and I don’t want to I agree with you. Look. They’re going to celebrate, and they should celebrate, but is it going to be the, oh my gosh, it’s the bender that you’re out to 6am celebrating? No, I think it’ll be more subdued than that in terms of, like, recognizing, hey, we still have some games here. We got to secure the top wildcard spot, and we have a quick turnaround champagne
Nestor Aparicio 10:18
and booze. They should all have a circle prayer and get in the middle and light some candles and do some ohms and listen to some Pearl Jam release and mellow to F out and say, we may they should be. It should be a group exhale, you know, like, literally, that’s what it should be. I
Luke Jones 10:38
was just going to say exhale, you know, because that Santander walk off felt like an exhale. I mean, Zach Eflin, I said this to you late last week, literally coined it as a breath of fresh air that they needed. I mean, they did, because it felt like death spiral. They went two in a row, but then, but then they lose two in a row. You know, it’s this
Nestor Aparicio 10:56
con. That’s what they at least had that moment, because they might not get it this week. To your point, right, that moment where they have a walk off that Jackson hollow, they still eating off that moment. Once you have that moment, you can see, well, I, you know, I can do this just so I don’t know the Kobe Mayos had that moment, but, and some of the bullpen guys, I, you know, I don’t know, but wherever that moment is, I think Corbin burns, Zach Eflin, you know where they are. Even Suarez, despite, you know, I’m going to, did you know it’s National Hispanic Heritage Month? Uh, Luke, I don’t know if you’re aware of that or not. If you saw that on the NFL broadcast or the Major League Baseball broadcast, um, but nonetheless, this, you know, Suarez, where are you with injuries in a general sense, westburg, Urias, obviously, Mullins escaped, um, what? We beat each other up so much about the opening day roster. Who’s going to be there? Who’s not? We know Craig Kimball’s not going to be on the playoff roster. But where are you on makeup in regard to that, and in regard to what needs to be seen this week from any number of people that are probably on the wrong side of the fence of making the team next week, right? Yeah. I
8Luke Jones 12:09
mean, we saw Kobe Mayo get optioned. He’s boring, something strange. And they did option him at a time where you can, you know, you could have him play for the postseason if he needed to. But I say this with no disrespect. He was the Minor League Player of the Year for the Orioles this year. I still think he’s going to be a heck of a player before it’s all said and done, he’s done nothing to warrant being on the postseason roster. I mean, let’s just call spade a spade now with got with guys coming back. You know, I think to me, it’s fairly cut and dried from the position player side. Westburg is back, assuming he doesn’t wake up Monday morning or Wednesday morning or next weekend with his hand bothering him, you know, which I don’t think there’s any reason to think that. I mean, it was a fracture, not like it was like a ligament or something like that, where you would say, oh, that could be really lingering, you know. Say, you know, Aria, same deal with him, unless he has a setback with his ankle. I mean, you know, they, they both played three games at Norfolk. They both got hits at Norfolk. They both started Sunday. And to me, it’s get them some at bats here. You know, don’t run them into the ground. You know, if you, if you want to get get them off their feet at some point, say, next weekend. But you know, it, it’s go, time with them. I mean, Mount Castle, a little more of a question, just until we see him activated. And, you know, whether that wrist, I mean, a wrist is a tricky thing. You know, when you’re talking about a sprained wrist for a hitter, that’s, you know, that’s something that you know, probably of their position player concerns that, to me, would be the one that I’d point to, because also part of that is Ryan O’Hearn struggled to the degree that he has down the stretch. And you’d like to get mount Castle back in the mix there, and you’d like his defense at first base, if nothing else you know. Bench wise, I think the more interesting emergence has been Emmanuel Rivera. I mean, he’s got some hits for them. I think he’s certainly has made a strong argument for being on the bench in the postseason, way more than even like Aloy Jimenez, who hasn’t done anything, anything in the month of September, he’s just completely stopped hitting, and he gives you no positional value whatsoever. So what do you I could see him being left off the roster. You know, pitching side, they’re not really in a position where, like, you’re you’re like, stressing on, how are we going to squeeze this guy onto into the bullpen? Like, you know what I mean, like, it’s okay. Is Kate Povich going to be the long man in the bullpen, or is Albert Suarez going to be in the bullpen? And maybe you use him in, like, the the swing roll to replace Dean Kramer in the fourth inning, and he bridges the gap. I don’t know. But, you know? Well, this
Nestor Aparicio 14:41
is where I would say, if you’re building this for next week, I guess you’re thinking the twins, I don’t know, whatever you’re thinking, whatever, whatever one of these teams you’re seeing, who knows right now, building this, really, for 18 to 27 innings of baseball, right? Like, that’s what you’re building here. You’re not building a week or game seven or game five. I mean, really, you’re building nine innings tonight and worrying about tomorrow. Tomorrow. You’re, you know, you’re putting your starters in and say, If I get to there, we’re going to do that. I’m assuming. We’ll see burns on Tuesday. We’ll see effluent on on Wednesday, right Thursday. Kramer Suarez the house. What you know, wherever it goes, right? But, and we can talk about this next week, but I feel like you and I are going to be flooded under the bill Sunday night. You know what I mean? I feel like the it’s a weird oxygen around here where you and I spend three and a half hours talking football before we even get to baseball. And I hope it’s not that way next week, if we wake up Monday morning and the Ravens are one and three, I you know, the Orioles better make us feel good come to, you know, burns better have a five innings in him on Tuesday. You know, at least make it interesting for us, because last year was not interesting. Um, this year’s way more interesting, because they’re going to play on Tuesday. There’s no more of this. Who’s getting nice, who’s not. It’s more to your point, like, how are they matching guys up this week in games they don’t necessarily need to win, but you want to least see him hit the ball and run the bases and catch the ball and bullpen guys be crisp and come out and give you the 1214, 1618, pitches, hopefully no more than that. Because you don’t you know that’s not what you want. You want them to get. You want them to get into that innings and playing Chris baseball against playoff caliber teams this week, playoff teams this week. Literally, it’s a hell of a warm up. It’s fall training, and we’ve got this whole like thing happening with the football team. But next week, when the baseball thing happens, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. You know how this goes, dude, seasons over on Wednesday. Football Teams one and three. Oh, my God. What happened? You know what I mean? Like, that’s so possible right now. And I don’t think any of us were dreaming of those sugar plums and fairy tales back in June when Lamar was just going to come back and freight train mahomes, and we were going to beat the Raiders up lose that game. And by the way, man, the Orioles are just going to waltz to the division because they are playing 620 ball. And, you know, then real life takes over, as they say, right?
Luke Jones 17:16
Yeah. I mean, you can always have visions. It doesn’t mean it’s going to play out that way, which is what makes it fun and excruciating at times. I mean, that’s just how it is. But 18
Nestor Aparicio 17:25
8to 27 innings, that’s it next week, right? For pitching? Oh, sure. I
Luke Jones 17:29
mean, like, and that’s why, to me, Grayson Rodriguez, it’s almost a moot point until we start hearing, okay, he’s he’s throwing live batting practice against real hitters. Uh, he’s throwing a two inning sim game. Once it gets to that point, then it’s like, okay, maybe he fits into the bullpen. Maybe he’s an option for the Division Series,
Nestor Aparicio 17:49
though, right, correct? I
Luke Jones 17:50
mean, he’s thrown bullpen sessions, that’s it, which, don’t get me wrong, that’s good. I’m not saying like that he’s had a setback, or that he’s done or anything like that, but we’re just running out of time, you know? I mean, the positive here is they got westburg and arias back on Sunday. Westburg even hit an RBI double. I mean, was good to see hit a ball to deep left center field. I mean, that was great to see, you know, that
818:13
was Jordan westburg Hitting doubles and hitting extra base hits. You know, it’s great to see him hitting second in the order. By the way, they haven’t hit a lot of doubles. You want to talk about a talking point the last 90 days, right? Like, Oh, absolutely, well, and that’s the big thing. They
Nestor Aparicio 18:24
hit a lot of anything. And, you know,
Luke Jones 18:26
I and, you know, I’ve pushed back on this, you know, this narrative that that they’re to rely on the home run. First of all, I’ll tell you over and over, most good offenses in 2024 rely on the home run quite a bit. I mean, that’s just how it is. But that’s the thing, it’s not just the home runs. Their doubles have dropped. I mean, go, look at what their double rate was in the first half compared to what it’s been in the second half.
Nestor Aparicio 18:47
8You know what they’re teaching these guys to hit home runs with launch angle, right? Like, literally, that’s the science of hitting a lot hard line drive. That’s the really, right? I mean, I mean, trained hit home runs. You.
Luke Jones 19:01
This is the most simplistic way that I could describe it, that it’s been described to me. And this was a couple years ago. But if you kind of think back to what was kind of the old school idea of hitting, hit a line drive up the middle, right? You know, that was kind of the way that it’s always been. You know, go back to Little League. That’s what your coach would have told you, unless you were the really fast kid, and they said, hit it on the ground before the shift and all that stuff came into vogue 1015, years ago. But the the approach now, at least how the Orioles and look launch angle. This is a thing across baseball. You know, all this velo, all these high fastballs, everything you see in that makes so pitching so challenging on a pitch by pitch, at bat by a bat basis, regardless of longevity and the injuries and all that is, there’s a lot of swing and miss. So the idea is, if you’re going to have more swing and miss than you had in the past, you better maximize your contact so that contacts maximize with the idea of hit a line drive off the left. Center or right center field fence. You know, that’s the idea. And when you say a line drive, obviously that’s, that’s a fly ball, but you don’t want to be hitting it a million as hard as you can right there, like you want to hit a line hit a laser off the left center field fence. That’s kind of the mindset now. And that way, if it’s lazy, it falls between people, not at people, which is up the middle, well and and the shift changed all that. I mean, it’s not so much that. I mean, it’s, you know, you can’t really guide the ball. There are very Tony Gwynn could wade, Boggs could okay, but very few hitters actually have a consistent ability to guide the ball somewhere. I mean, I mean, it’s just, you know, you can try to go the other way, and you’ll have some success doing that, but, you know, you could try to do that, but then the pitcher throws a change up in your fold, and you roll over and hit a ground ball to second base. Then, even though your approach was to try to hit it the other way, if you’re a left handed hitter, so but, but, you know, so much of it has to do, yeah, the genesis was the shift, in terms of hitting the ball over the shift. You know, that’s why that Think, think how many balls get hit hard up the middle, past the pitcher, even now, with the shift being limited compared to how it used to be, how many times do you still see a second baseman or a shortstop right there, because, you know, as long as they’re on their side of the second base bag, they’re okay. So that’s where the the genesis of the hit the ball in the air, off the left center field or right center field fence, depending on which side of the plate you hit from. But, you know, getting back to the point of getting off off track here a little bit, getting into the weeds with that. But that’s that’s been the approach, and it worked very well in the first half. Second half, too many fly balls. Some guys too many ground balls. They have drawn more walks they have. Last time I checked their own base percentage in the second half has been one of the better ones in baseball. But the slug has just gone away, and there’s been too much swing and miss that’s probably got accompanied that, you know, specifically with, you know, especially, you know, the the usual suspects, Colton cowser and Jackson holiday, Kobe Mayo when he was, you know. But even some, you know, even some more established guys, you know,
Nestor Aparicio 22:11
it’s created situational awfulness, though, yeah, sure, sure.
Luke Jones 22:15
No, I’m not sitting here like, I’m not making excuse. I’m just, I’m trying to explain where, you know, where this is all coming from, and it just hasn’t been as consistent. There’s no, no question about that. So this final week, bringing it back to this final week, you know, you want to get guys, you know, get, get guys on a roll. Now, Adley rutschman shouldn’t start six games behind the plate this week, right? I mean, you don’t. There’s a balance here. But, yeah, you want to, want to see if you can finally, finally see if he can get going to the point where he looks like Adley rutschman In October, because they need that. I’ve said it. I’ve said it for weeks. Both have said it. Many people have said this with their pitching the way that it’s presently constructed, and that’s even with feeling really good with efflin and burns, and burns. And it’s probably going to be f game one burns game two, because that’s where the rotation is right now. And look, they both have pitched really well, well of late, so I’m fine with that. I mean, that’s doesn’t need to be burns game one. I’m fine with EP game one and burns Game Two, either way, those are the two guys I want in game one and Game Two now, no Grayson, Rodriguez, no Bradish, no means. You know, Suarez has had a great year, but I don’t want him to be my first or second starter at this point. You know, it’s those two guys,
8Nestor Aparicio 23:25
but, you know, and those aren’t bad guys to have, right?
Luke Jones 23:29
Exactly. I’ll take that against not every, not every team in baseball with it, with their one two, but I think it matches up, stacks up favorably with most, at the very least, I’d say, especially with the way that f1 pitching at the moment. You know, burns looking more like the Corbin burns from a few years ago. You know, more swing and miss the last couple starts,
Nestor Aparicio 23:50
which really bodes well for game one. But sure, if there’s anything, we’re not going to talk as much baseball as we probably should and could this week, which is really one of Katie Griggs problems that I’m going to bring up when I write to Mr. Rubenstein is that the Ravens always overshadow them even this time. I mean, this is go time, but you Corbin Burns has been really good, and you know, he gives them a real chance to win on Tuesday, we’re not going to talk, oh, we’re not going to have a lot of time to talk about that, but later in the week, we will when we’re lining up and saying, who you bring into the to the gunfight in a short series. And what did we want from this franchise this time last year, right? Or the year before? And the guys that we wanted weren’t here, and if they were here, their arms fell off. I mean, there was a point where we thought game one and two was Brad means around here, really, right? Maybe Rodriguez, too. And none of those, none of those horses, are going to post. And when in the games that matter, who’s going to post guy? We had to go deal a shortstop for and pay him a fortune and walk here watch him struggle. Little bit in August, but, you know, fine, we’re real happy to have him on Tuesday. And the other guy is a guy you had to go out and steal on a trading deadline and make five deals to make one good one. You mentioned Jimenez, nothing. You know, don’t even start me on Rogers and Norby and Stowers and I wasn’t Norbi or Stowers guys, especially now the West works back. I’m cool and that they’re not going to win the division. Everybody’s going to get their wish. We don’t have to ice pitchers, so we don’t excuses next week, right? So staying on turn, staying on point, they bring in a guy who’s done this before, who they’re going to pay 20 million more, 18 million more next year to be their opening day starter, if they don’t have any other options, right? Um, I don’t know. I mean, I’m not gonna bitch about michaelias. I’m not gonna sit here and say there they were underprepared or made bad do what lock and four is doing, which is do this wrestling act. You know? I mean, that this could and should be good enough or not, and it’s good, it could or should be good enough when the guys catch the ball, and when gunner Henderson’s two for four with three RBIs on Tuesday, and rushman got on base a couple of times, and you Mullins did something, you know what? I mean, they’re star players, the guys who’ve been 3030s, and like all of that, those guys are going to play great ball next week, they’re going to catch the ball because I think the pitching is going to be okay. I don’t think Corbin burns or Zach Elena get them blown up next week. That’s my vibe.
Luke Jones 26:30
8I mean, look, it’s not about them, it’s about everyone else. I mean, you just said it could or should be good enough. I don’t know if I agree with that. I think they’re a very diminished team from where they they they envision themselves being with Corbin burns, Kyle, Bradish, Grayson, Rodriguez. Now that said, look, they did well for themselves bringing in effluent you. I love the effluent trade. You know that he’s someone that I mentioned in passing going up to the trade deadline, because at that point, I had no expectation that even new ownership was going to take on the salary that they did. So that was good. I mean, that was a good deal. To your point, very well. Could be their opening day starter next, next April or late March. I’ll
Nestor Aparicio 27:09
do this right now. I’ll put $1 I’m not a gambling guy, and I’m allowed to bet all I want right now. I put $1 on him, giving you five good innings on Wednesday. I will.
Luke Jones 27:17
I have no disagreement with that. It’s not, it’s not about him and burns. It’s okay. Five innings. What about the sixth? What about the seventh? Okay, all right, we get we get to the eighth. Danny coolham Cano, sir, Anthony Dominguez, as long as he cuts out the walks, which suddenly has become a little bit of a thing, and when it wasn’t a thing the first two months with the Orioles. Or
Nestor Aparicio 27:39
are you a guy that pitched 95 of Zach Eflin is inferior to pitch one of, pick your reliever with an out in the sixth or seventh inning, like, if, if he has some length and get some, you know, gets, gets 10 pitch innings here and again, and is two runs in, five runs in and it’s four to two in the sixth or seventh Do you Do you want to see something else, or do you want to see effluent on pitch 91 I mean, that’s really that’s going to be the question, and where he is at that moment, and how you feel about that, versus going to the bullpen. Because I feel like efflon is going to do that, and I don’t know whether their season’s on the line at that point, or whether they’re trying to close things down that talk to me Tuesday night. I’ll let you know, but, or Wednesday morning, I should say, but, you know, I’m trying to play this out next week in a way that we really didn’t last year, because they’re gonna play ball in the middle next week in a week out, we can already start the script how this is gonna go, and it’s gonna be in our ballpark. You know what? I mean? Like, I have a vision on all of this, and I think they can be successful. I really do. And I’m going to say that and write that all week. I i think they have components to win a couple of short series based on some decent starting pitching and hitting the ball and catching the ball better than maybe I’m on their reputation from what they were four months ago and not what I’ve seen lately, which has been very Keystone.
8Luke Jones 29:01
Yeah. I mean, that’s the thing. I mean, I look, I like Zach Effen and Corbin burns. I like that as a one two punch. But, you know, you just asked me, Where am I if, if EFL is at 91 pitches, well, you have to tell me how to pitch 75 through 90. Look, where are they at in the order? Where, what’s the score? You know? I mean, there’s a lot that goes into that, and that’s where I look at this. And I just say I don’t see the proper established confidence instilling length to their bullpen to feel confident that they’re going to navigate this. Because, you know, Corbin burns, even in the regular season, like even if his pitch count, you know that that’s not as much of a factor. This isn’t a guy who throws complete games, and I don’t say that as a knock on Him. Very few guys do that anymore. So the point is, if it’s two to one in the seventh inning, you’re gonna have to get seven outs or eight out. From your bullpen, and I am a little unsettled about that. I mean, I just am. I mean, even, even the guys that I have confidence in still have a question mark attached to them. Dominguez, you know, the the walks here the last couple times out, I’m, I’m willing to say, okay, that’s an aberration, sir. Anthony, Dominguez has given up the long ball right? Cano, who has been lights out the last two months, just missed about eight days he didn’t pitch because of some forearm tightness. Like, okay, it’s looked his two times since that he’s pitched. It’s looked okay, you know, I suppose. I mean, he did give up the runs in on Saturday, but the Velo isn’t like way down, or there aren’t any red flags, but that’s still in the back of my mind. Danny coulomb is back. It’s great that he’s back, but he missed three months. I mean, is he going to be sharp on point? Danny cool on for if you’re going to navigate this thing and get to the ALCS, at the very least, he’s going to have to throw some some really big innings for you. You You know, same with Jacob Webb coming off of the elbows. So I don’t say this to be that they’re done, but I also can’t look at this thing on paper, and Craig Kimbrel is not walking through that door, and you don’t want him to with this. He’s gone right? I mean, they they made that and it was the right decision at that point in time, but that’s not what they signed up for when they paid him $13 million $13
Nestor Aparicio 31:23
million you’re not thinking about a plan B, yeah, you’re, in this case, a Plan C or D, which is really where that
Luke Jones 31:29
and even me, like, as much as you know, I wasn’t doing cartwheels over the Kimbrough. I didn’t think it was going to go like this either, where he was off the roster, you know, that he was done. I thought it was more a case of you better bring in. It’s kind of what they ultimately did. And I think their hope when they acquired Sir Anthony Dominguez was that Kimbrel would get himself back on track at some point in August, and then he would either be the closer and Dominguez would be the eighth inning guy, or it would be like a one, one and one a kind of situation, close,
Nestor Aparicio 32:00
8you’re probably not good enough to be on the team if you’re Kimbrel, because if you’re, I mean, the bar wasn’t high to be the closer on this team, just either, I
Luke Jones 32:09
mean, throw a couple strikes, you know what? I mean, but, but he could, but he wasn’t even good enough to be a sixth or seventh inning.
Nestor Aparicio 32:15
Well, that’s my point. My point is, if you weren’t good enough to be the closer, you might as well throw the baby out with the bathwater, because I’m not going to trust you in the sixth or seventh inning either, because if you get there and you start getting guys out, I’m going to make you the closer again, which they did in June, you know. So I, I hadn’t thought about, you’re like, Well, I’m shocked. He’s off the team. I couldn’t have predicted that. I’m like, Well, if he couldn’t close, I would think that he probably would like, it wouldn’t be good enough to even be here if you can’t trust him to pitch, you know? I mean,
Luke Jones 32:43
I don’t know about that, because you still need God, even guys like Brad Brock was a great example of this. Brad Brock, at times, had to fill in for an injured Zach Britton. Going back to what 17, I guess that was, whenever it was, it didn’t go so well with him as the closer. But Brad Brock, if he was a seventh or eighth inning guy, went really well. So point is, and we’re wasting too much time talking about Craig Kimbrel this bullpen. Is it good enough? I don’t know. I just don’t know right now, and that’s where I look at this thing. And there are, there are ifs and maybes, and there are things to be encouraged by, but by the fact Westberg and arias and kulom and Weber back and mount castles, presumably back this week, and we’ll see about Grayson Rodriguez at some point, if they advanced and get that far. He just mentioned a lot of baseball players, but there’s a literally, there’s a lot missing here. There was, but there’s also a lot of, maybes a lot of ifs a lot of, I don’t knows when it, when it pertains to where this roster, where this baseball team, is, right? Now, I’m, I’m in full agreement with you. I feel really good about burns and Eflin, right? I mean, whether it’s burns, Eflin, efflin burns games one and two next week it it’s going to be one or the other, right? I mean, the way it sets up now, Eflin, you know, is ahead of burns in terms of just, you know, the rotation as it as it’s presented. So do you adjust that? I don’t know. It might be a case where you say you go with Eflin. You’re you’re more aggressive, pulling him if you feel that it’s getting a little hairy at 90 pitches and you’ve got a fully rested bullpen because you had the off day Monday, presumably Sunday, you didn’t throw any of your key guys, and then it’s all hands on deck. And then you say, Okay, we get that one. And then this might be the day that Corbin burns you hand on the ball. And say, we need you to throw 110 pitches tonight. And we need you to be, we need you to be the bonafide ace. This is why we got you back in what February 1, or whatever it is, but then
8Nestor Aparicio 34:41
you come back and play Saturday with probably Dean Kramer starting game one, or like that, right? Literally, the next. I mean, whoever you’re not going to be, well, that’s, that’s the trench of this whole thing is that you are going to be matched up awkwardly as you progress because of the timing of it. Really, it is. I mean. We used to think about five men rotation, and, you know, having Steve Avery back here, or even, in our case, whether it was way and Shannon or Miguel Gonzalez 10 years ago, this is a whole different thing once you navigate the first one, because you’re talking about 110 pitches out of burns on Wednesday, you ain’t seeing him. Now, it’ll gain three of the next series, even if you survive and kick their ass, literally, because of what, what you’re doing to your pitching.
Luke Jones 35:24
I mean, it’s just, but that’s the challenge they don’t have. They don’t have the depth right now the World Series is going to be harder. I mean, that’s why it’s just, I think back to, like to me, Cleveland, back in 16 you know, when they went to game seven with the Cubs. Remember, Cleveland was kind of at a point where they were, they were at like, two starters, you know, two and a half, what Trevor Bauer had, the what, the drone, or whatever. I can’t even remember what happened where he cut his hand. And so, point is, they were really short with their rotation. But what was the difference? They had a insane bullpen at that point in time, and they Terry Francona rode those guys all the way to the very end, and it almost worked. This bullpen is not that. I’m not saying this bullpen can’t be good or do the job, but I put it this way, if Dean Kramer or Albert Suarez is starting a game three, whether we’re talking about the AL The Division Series, or game three of the wild card, because it’s going to be Evelyn burns one, one, order the other, and then game three, it’s all hands on deck, right? But not those guys, because they just pitched. They just threw 90 or under pitches. But you’re going to be at a point there where it’s all hands on deck. But if Dean Kramer does start that game and you have to pull him in the third inning, it’s like, okay, you can go to Suarez or vice versa. You know, I’m not opposed to saying Suarez game three, and Kramer comes out of the pen in that situation. But I mean, how long is that chain right now? It’s just not long enough. And this is where, again, you made a comment a few minutes ago that I generally agree with. I will not waver from like Elias hasn’t done enough with the bullpen the last couple years, that that’s been a little bit of a blind spot. And I thought it was a blind spot even before Felix Bautista went down and then this off season. Look, I commend the fact that he went out and was aggressive. And I’m not saying that I would have given Josh Hayter $100 million contract either. That’s the other extreme here. But I looked at that bullpen and Nestor. You know, I’ve been consistent about this in spring training. I said all along I was not confident that that bullpen had enough high leverage, quality arms in it. And, you know, especially now with Craig Kimbrell completely falling apart to the point where he’s gone and look, that was the right decision. I’m not but I just look at it right now, and is cool on going to be the best version of himself is Webb? Going to be the best version of himself is Cano completely healthy? Is Sir Anthony Dominguez going to avoid giving up the long ball? You know, Gregory Soto, you know, it could. Can he be a little more meaningful than what he’s been to this point? You know, he’s actually pitched in a couple decent spots here of late and done a nice job. So hopefully, maybe kind of, sort of, but that’s a lot of lot of question marks. It’s a far cry. I’ll say this much, and this is a simplistic, simplistic comparison, but I’ll leave you with this. It’s not Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Darren O’Day, Brad Brock and Kevin Gosman back in 14 so we’ll see rotation wise, top two. Hey, I’ll take this. I burns in effluent. I like it, but I just don’t know if there are enough other innings behind them that’s going to get this job done to the point where they’re making a deep run. But hey, who knows? And again, it’s also going to come back to if you score six or seven runs, then you don’t need to be the bullpen to be as perfect. You don’t need the pitching to be as perfect, but if it’s two or three, that’s when I look at this thing and I say, I don’t know if it’s going to add up to a long run, but we’ll see the Maryland. I’m sorry. Go ahead and fall training continues this week as they need to clinch. And then, like I said, you can kind of slow play this and massage this however you want to here to get ready for next week.
Nestor Aparicio 39:21
I am holding the Maryland lottery tickets from the Raven scratch offs. They were a lucky batch at fates. I’m going to be a Costas this Friday. Here’s the real question. We’re doing a little birthday show on October the 11th to Pizza Johns. They do have a crab cake there as well. Some damn good pizza and a great story to tell them. We look forward. Sit down with Brett and everybody over there in Essex. I’ll have these as well. There I had James Bond for the living classrooms foundation on at fadelies on Friday with Dami. We’re talking oyster recovery and our friends at Liberty, pure solutions and curio wellness. And put me out on the road to eat all these oysters. And like October, I only have one crab cake tour on the 11th. Because it’s the day that they’re not supposed to play. But the rain could change all of that. It’s a Friday. I only did one last year. If you remember, I did drug city on my birthday, and it kind of like, by then it was over with, we’re back from Arlington, and, you know, I you had a clubhouse badge, I didn’t, and we all, we got to see the Dallas facility we talked about earlier this week. So I’m looking at these dates in October, and I’m like, where am I going to be when Duran? Duran is playing here? And I’m like, Well, I’m back in June when they announced the concert. I thought that looked like game three of the World Series, and I’d have plans that night, and I’d have my press credential back, of course, because there’s new ownership, and Peter’s dead right now. I’m looking at Friday the fourth next week maritime magic is next Friday. It’s the biggest event of the year for living classrooms. And I said to James, well, the event’s going to be like a pep rally for the Al DS, which is game one the next day. You know, like trying to be positive about that. And then I’m thinking october 11 would be like the the celebration of getting ready for the American League Championship Series. That’s kind of the way I envisioned it back when I started to plan this in June and before July and August, and certainly September, happened with the Orioles. When’s your birthday? October 2. All right, they’re going to be playing on your birthday, but will they be playing on mine? I think with the pitching you’re you’ve just made the case as to why you don’t like them. And I think the reason to not like them to win the World Series will be the matchups they’ll get even if they survive next week, because they’re going to get a number one starter next weekend, and it’s going to be a Kramer Suarez throw it together game one. They’re going to be lucky to get whoever you’re trying to push burns back. That pushes him back further in the next series, if it happens and but that would be like a 3735, I don’t know. You know, I don’t know. But like going, navigating this out, where it’s not just 18 to 27 things, as I point out next week, where it’s more like, oh, this series is going to be more like 40 to 60 innings or, well, 30 to 40 innings, I should say, right? That’s a different animal. Trying to get guys out when your pitching isn’t as good as the other team’s body of work, right?
Luke Jones 42:15
8Yeah, no question. And, and again, this is also in concert with, is your offense going to wake up? Right? I mean, it all but, but that’s the thing. And you just said it, you can, you know, you can try to map this thing out, but it’s, it’s literally about winning Tuesday and Wednesday. I mean, that’s and if you don’t win one of those, you got to win Thursday, or your season’s over. So there is no holding back here. That’s why I even said, You know what? Maybe it is a case where you just stay on turn, and effin goes game one, and you throw as many relievers as you feel you need to do. And then Game Two, you might be a little bit lighter, and you just say, all right, Corbin burns. This is why we got you. You need to go out there and just do it. And to your point, even if that works out, then it’s like, okay, now you’re playing the Yankees in the Division Series, and who’s, who the heck start in game one. And, okay, you might, you know, depending because what, there’s an off day after, after game one. I think, I think that’s the the format. It’s, it’s odd, you know? And one thing that is helping them is, with the the off days built into the Division Series, you only need three starters, as opposed to four, so that does help. But, boy, it’s clunky, trying to, you know, trying to navigate this, if you’re going to have to,
Nestor Aparicio 43:28
where are the outs coming from, like, literally, right? I
Luke Jones 43:30
mean, it’s just, it’s tough. And again, if you score eight runs, then, okay, I can give some of those outs to some lesser guys in the eighth inning, if you’re up eight to one, but if it’s three to two, which is how postseason games tend to be, then it’s just, it’s a lot, it’s a lot, and that’s why I said over and over and over put it, you know, I don’t want to hear about the the long layoff. I know that that’s a different challenge in and of itself, but give me the opportunity to avoid that three game mess that can be over in 24 hours. And I can save my innings, and I can set my rotation, and I can get some of my bullpen guys a breather, even though the Orioles have a couple guys that they want to try to probably get some work for this week, you know, cool omen and Webb, try to get them, you know, back in the flow, so to speak. But that’s why I said I’ll take my chances with the layoff and being able to set everything up the way I want to, especially when you’re talking about a team that, let’s face it, they’re short handed on the pitching side. They absolutely are short handed. It’s just, it’s the truth. Not. It doesn’t mean they get a hand, you know, they’re not handicapped like golf or, you know, no one’s going to give them extra strokes or take but it’s hard to win the World Series that way, but it’s really, really hard to make a deep run, like I said that Cleveland team about a decade ago that that did it with two and a half starters. Man, that bullpen was just unreal. Andrew Miller was in that bullpen, if you recall, at that point, and well compensated at that point in his career, too. Yeah, they’re just. Isn’t that guy in in the Orioles bullpen? I you know, I don’t know if there’s two guys in the Orioles bullpen are stacked up to what that Cleveland team had, or that Kansas City team had, or, yeah, even that 2014 Orioles bullpen, as it was constructed in October. So we’ll see
Nestor Aparicio 45:17
hey, or the 2000 and and 16 bullpen that you let Zach Britton rot at the end of the bench. Luke Jones is here. Lot of football this week, a lot of crab cakes, and certainly a ton of oysters this week. And a lot of conversation. I’ve got a wild mix of conversations this week, if you come in and out of the radio station. It is the 40th anniversary of the folding of my first newspaper, sports first, and the Baltimore news, American and John stabman and all those stories, I did a glorious hour with some folks talking about that period of time that you were born. Luke Jones, you were born at the beginning of sports first, and my son was born the day after sports first folded, which was 40 years ago this Saturday. So you’ll hear from some of my colleagues, great sports guys, great editors, really smart people. Pete kurtzel also was a part of that team and a part of that conversation. So if you’re familiar with Pete, Pete’s work at Mass and people, and I know you’re familiar because you have a press pass, and I don’t, and used to see Pete, but Pete will be on the air this week telling some stories as part of that also at fadelies, we talked about living classrooms, Foundation and the oyster recovery partnership. I’m going to be at the bno Railroad Museum on Thursday night with all the oyster farmers eating oysters, talking oysters, talking about the bay, talking about where the crabs and the crab cakes come from. This time of year, I’ll be eating some fat crabs it cost us. On Friday, Leonard Raskin is going to be joining me there from Raskin global as well. So just, um, just a big week and some conversations. I did a podcast called he’s holding, I’m not with Reverend Al Hathaway, who’s been a guest on the program, as well as Martin Knott from air, long conversation about sports and journalism in the city, and the enthusiasm of the city and the baseball team and how sports brings us together. So you’re gonna be hearing a bunch of stuff on the air this week, including John Sarbanes, Congressman Sarbanes outgoing, and here’s what. Here’s one for you, Luke, that’s going to air this week that I want to prepare people for when they get into these conversations. I had a guy call me two weeks ago and say, I’m writing a book on gambling in the 1970s 80s and 90s, in American football, and I saw that you did a show with Lawrence Taylor and Buddy Ryan. Would you talk to me about that show with Mike Warren? And I said, Sure, but I’d like to do it on the air and shtick, because I’ve never told these stories. Nobody’s ever asked me about it. And he’s he played along guy named David bachino, professor at Elon University. He’s also an author writes about media in America. Did an hour with me, and I told stories literally, Luke, you’ll laugh, you’ll cry, even the beers we’ve drank, the rooms we’ve shared, the Super Bowls we’ve been like, all of that, even even running into Lawrence Taylor with with you in Miami, I told stories that I hadn’t thought and remembered in 27 years. Was 1997 that I did it. So all of that is going to be heard here on the air this week. Luke’s going to be talking baseball, Yankees twins, obviously the Ravens getting ready for Buffalo. He is Baltimore, Luke. He is from Owings Mills to Camden Yards and back and forth, all the powered up by Jiffy Lube, multi care as well as royal farms. We are wnst am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore positive. I.
