Sure, it’s a 5-year, $68 million commitment to a starting pitcher who hadn’t even thrown a pitch for the Baltimore Orioles, but let Luke Jones and Nestor tell you what makes sense about the dollars that Mike Elias gave new hurler Shane Baz and why it happened now.

• [ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Write and send a piece about Elon Musk’s proposed tunnel under Oriole Park, intended for Sasha.
• [ ] Bring leftover Harlem Globetrotters scratch-off tickets and new Maryland Lottery scratch-offs (including a full strip of Maryland art project tickets) to the WNST show at Faylee’s on Lexington Market next Friday.

Shane Baz Contract and Risk for Mike Elias and Orioles

• Nestor Aparicio discusses the Shane Baz contract and the risk involved for Mike Elias and the Orioles.
• Nestor mentions the new era of spending by the Orioles, comparing it to the past when they were more conservative.
• Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the significance of the Shane Baz contract, including the $68 million deal and the prospects traded to acquire him.
• They debate the potential outcomes of the contract, considering Baz’s past injuries and his current performance.

Orioles’ New Approach to Player Contracts

• Nestor Aparicio highlights the changes in the Orioles’ approach to player contracts, noting the new premium pricing and different atmosphere at Camden Yards.
• Luke Jones explains the rationale behind the Shane Baz contract, emphasizing the front office’s belief in Baz’s potential.
• They discuss the financial implications of the contract, including the impact on future budgets for other players like Gunner Henderson.
• Nestor expresses his mixed feelings about the new approach, appreciating the change but also being cautious about the long-term financial risks.

Shane Baz’s Performance and Potential

• Luke Jones and Nestor analyze Shane Baz’s performance in his first game with the Orioles, noting both his strengths and areas for improvement.
• They discuss Baz’s recovery from a rough second inning and his ability to pitch into the sixth inning.
• Luke Jones mentions the positive feedback from Baz’s teammates and the importance of his presence in the clubhouse.
• They speculate on Baz’s potential to become a top-tier starting pitcher and the impact of his contract on the Orioles’ future plans.

Comparison to Other Pitchers and Market Trends

• Nestor and Luke compare Baz’s contract to other recent deals, including Chris Bassitt’s $19 million deal and the potential for Gunner Henderson’s contract.
• They discuss the market trends for starting pitchers and the financial implications of long-term contracts.
• Luke Jones explains the rationale behind the Orioles’ decision to extend Baz’s contract, considering his potential and the team’s investment in him.
• They consider the risks and rewards of the contract, including the possibility of Baz not living up to expectations.

Impact on Orioles’ Rotation and Future Plans

• Nestor and Luke discuss the broader implications of the Shane Baz contract on the Orioles’ rotation and future plans.
• They consider the potential for Baz to become a top starter, alongside other pitchers like Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers.
• Luke Jones highlights the importance of depth in the rotation and the potential for the Orioles to have a strong starting five in the future.
• They discuss the long-term strategy for the Orioles, including the need for continued development and smart financial decisions.

Owner’s Role and Financial Commitment

• Nestor and Luke discuss the role of ownership in the Shane Baz contract and the financial commitment from the Orioles.
• They mention David Rubenstein’s statement about supporting Mike Elias’ decisions and the financial backing for the team.
• Luke Jones explains the importance of ownership’s trust in Elias’ ability to assess talent and make strategic decisions.
• They consider the potential consequences if Baz does not live up to expectations, including the impact on Elias’ reputation and future decisions.

Pitching Development and Team Strategy

• Nestor and Luke discuss the broader implications of the Shane Baz contract for the Orioles’ pitching development and team strategy.
• They consider the impact of the contract on the team’s approach to player development and long-term planning.
• Luke Jones highlights the importance of the pitching coaches and the team’s commitment to developing young talent.
• They discuss the potential for the Orioles to become a competitive team in the future, with a strong starting rotation and depth in the minor leagues.

Comparison to Other Teams and Market Realities

• Nestor and Luke compare the Orioles’ approach to other teams in the league, including their spending and player development strategies.
• They discuss the financial realities of the market and the importance of making smart decisions to build a competitive team.
• Luke Jones explains the rationale behind the Orioles’ decisions, considering the team’s goals and the current market conditions.
• They consider the potential for the Orioles to become a model for other teams in terms of player development and financial management.

Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

• Nestor and Luke share their final thoughts on the Shane Baz contract and the future outlook for the Orioles.
• They discuss the potential for the Orioles to become a competitive team in the future, with a strong starting rotation and depth in the minor leagues.
• Luke Jones emphasizes the importance of continued development and smart financial decisions to build a sustainable team.
• They conclude by expressing their excitement for the upcoming season and the potential for the Orioles to make a significant impact in the league.

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

Shane Baz contract, Mike Elias, Orioles, risk, pitching development, starting rotation, financial commitment, player extension, ownership, baseball season, Camden Yards, pitching depth, free agency, player potential, team strategy.

SPEAKERS

Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio

Nestor Aparicio  00:01

Welcome home. We are W N S T. Am 1570 to Baltimore. We are Baltimore positive. And it is baseball season around here. We’re getting together and chatting about things. If there’s any breaking news, you will get that first on the W n s t tech service. All of it brought to you by friends at cole roofing and Gordian energy. I’m going to be doing the Maryland crab cake tour. I’m wearing my Costas gear. I do not have a cost this date together, but we do have a fresh date next Friday at faidleys. We’re going to be at Fay Lee’s when the San Francisco Giants come to town on Friday, my past, Steve Miles going to be joining us. I still have some Harlem Globetrotters scratch offs left, so I will have these, but I’m also going to have the newest Maryland lottery scratch offs, which I’m really looking forward to seeing. I’ll have a whole strip of the the special Maryland art project, ones that are showing off our great state, and we’re looking forward to that as well. We’ll have those next Friday at Fayette Lee’s at Lexington market. They’re going to get the fishmonger’s daughter open later this month in Catonsville. We’ll be doing the show over there, probably May or June, and I’m going to be moving around a little bit doing a Maryland crab cake to we had a lot of fun out at missones and some other places. We did some first time stuff before I left for my vacation in South America, and I came back just in time to get sick give my wife a cold, Luke, it’s so lucky for you that we zoom these things because you don’t have to sit next to me and get all snotted on by me. But I spent the first weekend in bed, sheets pulled up, shivering, coughing, hacking, night, quilling, day, quilling, doing all of that stuff and watching, I thought, a fascinating weekend of baseball with the ABS system. And I do think, and look, I wrote those letters to Michael era Getty, who I shook his hand for 10 seconds two years ago, and I never heard back from Priscilla. I don’t appreciate that kind of treatment. I don’t appreciate the way any of the the Chad Steel’s the Elon Musk. I don’t appreciate how I’m getting treated by a lot of this. But that being said, when I sit on my couch and I watch the games and you’re in some level of heated comfort on a Saturday afternoon at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in the Jim Henneman press box. I it’s good to have the heartbeat of baseball back, but I think more than this, and I’m going to open up the big picture to this, because if these goofs, Katie Griggs and Michael era Getty, and if they actually were like decent humans and citizens. I’m one of how many people in the media that they would have to deal with here. I could actually sit and talk to them about all of this stuff and get a vibe on it, but it feels so Johnny Bravo and the Whistler and all of that. I mean, I saw Rubenstein sitting next to Shane Boz in the press conference, and I thought Peter loved Peter, but Peter wouldn’t do that, and especially after he got booed on the Cal Ripken night. He was never seen ever again. And at that time, 30 years ago, I said, Why doesn’t the owner sit next to Cal Ripken when he signs into a contract? Why does the owner sit next to Brady Anderson when he was the one at picacio Making the deal at lunchtime with the player. We now have an owner or an appearance of an owner, because, I mean, Rubenstein doesn’t know anything about baseball. He can’t take a baseball question because he just doesn’t. He’s not in touch with it at all. And it’s clear, and that’s okay, there’s, it’s not a, that’s not a, I’m not calling a foul on that. But you’ve now, like done a contract. They’re giving money away. They’re spending like drunken sailors. They’ve signed their number three starter. They’ve spent money. They’re on the scene. They’re open for business. And as I sit here three games into the season, four game, whatever it is, it’s certainly different. You know, signing Chris bassett’s gonna pitch. They gave $19 million in February that Fredo was never going to do that around here. So we really are into a weird new area, premium pricing. We’re in the truest era. But all of it’s different. The scoreboards different. Sounds different. Ticket pricing is a little different. I saw it’s 32 bucks to go to the ballpark on Saturday, but they’re trying, and at any point, you might send me a W NST text brought to you by cold roofing or Gordian energy, saying they’ve given gunner Henderson six $40 million I don’t know. I mean they like, who knows. I mean, you’re laughing at that. Don’t laugh at that dude, because they might be those guys.

Luke Jones  04:29

Hey, I’m all for it. If they do that, giving Shane boss 68 million isn’t giving gunner Henderson 600 million, though that’s all I’ll say. But your points, well, taken. I It does feel different, and that’s a good thing. It doesn’t mean it’s perfect, but it feels different. And they’ve now extended two young players. This is, you know, Shane boss wasn’t homegrown. We get that. But beside was they went out and gave $155 million Pete Alonso, they hadn’t done that with an outside free agent, you know, of any note in a really long time? I mean, you have to go back to, you know, the 90s, you know. And you said

Nestor Aparicio  05:11

they, they, they meaning the Orioles, but they is a different. They now,

Luke Jones  05:17

it is a different, yeah, yeah, for sure. So it’s, it is refreshing in that way. And, you know, I mean, I think the Shane boss contract is so interesting because it really just speaks to how much Mike Elias and this regime, and I don’t mean ownership, I mean the front office, how much they believe in the guy. I mean they traded away four of their system, not top 30 prospects in baseball, let’s be clear, but four of their, you know, at least, according to mlb.com pipeline for their top 30 prospects, they traded away a draft pick to get Shane boss, who’s under club control for you know, through 2028 And then they double down on how much they like him before he throws a pitch, and they give him a five year $68 million contract. Now, in the same way that we talked about the same Well, beside deal, let’s look at it more pragmatically. This is essentially saying, okay, year one, he was set to make three and a half million dollars. This year, he’s now going to make 1 million in base salary. They gave him a $4 million signing bonus. So they gave him a little of an immediate bump in terms of, hey, this is for signing Here you go, which you would expect next year. He’s making $7 million he would have been in arbitration. If he has even a mediocre season. He’s probably getting that kind of a raise, right? So that’s kind of what you would expect. Year three, 2028 and of course, we know the possibility, if not likelihood, of a lockout. We don’t know if they’re going to miss games, how many games all that. So putting that part aside, but 2028 $10 million that’s probably a reasonable projection for you know, even if he’s an okay pitcher the next couple years, for what he’d get in arbitration. So really, you’re looking at the last two years and you’re saying, Okay, are we betting and projecting on the idea that Shane Boz is going to be a good enough starting pitcher that we would, we would want to sign him to a two year, $46 million contract? Well, you just said it Chris Bassett, who is 37 years old in the November of his career, is making, what, $18 million so an average annual value of $23 million for a pitcher who’s still going to, at that point, be, what, right around 30 years old.

Nestor Aparicio  07:36

So certainly not it’s never done it well. I mean that that’s projecting it out. That’s the craziness of all of it. Is the back of his bubble gum card does not warrant any of this. And that’s it’s not my money. I don’t really,

Luke Jones  07:50

I don’t care. But the but the problem is, okay, you can wait to find that out, and then you’re not going to be able to sign them for you’re not going to sign them for a five year $68 million contract or or you’re not going to sign up for a two year $46 million contract at that point in time, prior to him getting the market right. So that’s what this is all about. You have to project. Look, I’ll say this much. If Kyle Bradish would be open to that kind of a deal right now, and the Orioles haven’t done that, then shame on them. Trevor Rogers, would laugh at that deal, that contract offer, right now, because he, Trevor Rogers is set to be a free agent in six months, right? And it’s coming off of a year where he had the best era in the American League. In the second half of the season,

Nestor Aparicio  08:32

he’s going to be Ranger Suarez in six months, right?

Luke Jones  08:35

Or, I mean, I don’t know if he’ll help somewhere, you know, somewhere higher than what we’re talking with this deal so, but it’s very clear that that the Orioles are very, very bullish on Shane boss, and I get it right. I said to you from the moment they traded for him, he’s kind of sort of Grayson Rodriguez, except he’s been healthy for the last year and a half and seems to be past his elbow issues from a few years ago and and having Tony wasn’t that

Nestor Aparicio  09:01

effective last year. That’s the ballpark and all of that. But like, I’d still like to see an IS NOT A might be, and he’s in might be, to me, still,

Luke Jones  09:11

I understand that. But then we’re having a different conversation about being able to sign them long term, right? I mean, yeah, like,

Nestor Aparicio  09:21

I don’t know why that was so important that, I guess that’s my point. Like, Well, it’s because I don’t know the snake oil that Elias is selling to the owners, because they don’t know what they’re doing. Like, I just defer. I don’t know baseball. I just defer. I got to work on my Rubenstein. I’m work that up. But like, he does these press conferences is sort of like, whatever Mike says, we just write the checks. And I’m like, that sounds like sugar daddy. That’s good. I like that, but I don’t know that it’s good, because the fans are gonna wind up paying for this three or four years from now, one way or another. And I like is, is better than Mike bees. And I’m not risk averse. You know this about. Me, but I’m, it’s curious, that’s all. I’m not even criticizing. And I just It’s, I

Luke Jones  10:07

mean, I’m not gonna sit here and say, I’m not gonna lie to you and say that I expected this to happen, but it’s just less

Nestor Aparicio  10:13

money they’re gonna have for gunner Anderson or Jackson holiday, or whomever blooms, or whomever they are. And I don’t think so much about 2020 29 right now, especially with the labor thing, and we won’t get into that at all, but it was something didn’t have to do, where they’ve projected payroll out now, in a way that sure is going to be a crapshoot.

Luke Jones  10:35

Well, I would say this to push back a little bit on your gun or Henderson point, if a two essentially what this is, what it’s really because let’s, let’s break this down. Is there any scenario where Shane Bos wasn’t going to be an Oriole next year? I mean, he has options remaining. If he has an 11 era, you have to send them to the miners. You’re still not going to get rid of them after one year, especially with what you invested in terms of, you know, your prospect capital. So at a minimum, at a minimum, even if this went goes horrendously, you know, if he gets hurt, at a minimum, Shane boss is going to be on the team through next year, right? And that’s the worst case scenario that he’s just that bad of. So you kind of, you can look at it one of two ways. You can kind of look at it, okay, if we’re looking at it through that lens, then you signed up for three years, 56 million over 2829 and 30, and like I said, two years, 46 million. So let’s think about this, you know, like we just said, with Chris Bassett, who is making what, $18 million whatever. 18.5 I don’t have it in front of me at the moment, but we know it’s right around that neighbor, right around that area. And we’re also talking now projecting out three, four or five years from now, you’re looking at the range of outcomes for Shane boss. By the way, Shane, pause, doesn’t have to blossom into a number one starter for this to be a perfectly solid deal. If he is a number three starter, I would say it’s kind of the going rate, you know, even even trying to project it out a few years. And let’s face it, regardless of what happens with the CBA, I don’t think we’re really in a position where salaries are going to go down right. There might be some market correction here and there, if there’s a salary cap and but prices never go down, right? So, so you kind of look at it through that lens, but if you’re as bullish as they are on him, and he blossoms to be a number one, or, let’s say, an excellent number two starter, two years 46 I mean, that could be a heck of a bargain. So there are different outcomes there, but to go, go back to what you said about gunner Henderson, I would wholeheartedly say if two years $46 million on a pitcher who hypothetically doesn’t work out is going to be prohibitive when it comes to signing gunner Henderson, if you’re going to sign gunner Henderson, then you probably shouldn’t sign gunner Henderson to a $600 million contract, because you’re in A position financially where you would say, what else are we going to be able to afford, other than that one player? So I would just say, from that standpoint, it’s not that lucrative in terms of just looking at it in a vacuum, if Shane boss hits even the middle range of what your expectations are going to be. So I but I hear your point. I would just say, for you and and you’re kind of saying, with this specific player, yeah, you’d like a little more cost certainty. But the problem is, you can get more cost certainty, but then that’s, you know, there’s a downside to that for him, where he’d say, Okay, well, that deal doesn’t look as appealing to me. If I just hung a 3.5 era over 170 I just

Nestor Aparicio  13:44

like him to look like a number three starter for a month before I give him that money that and that’s me. But they have, they clearly in love with him, right? And there’s no doubt about clearly Elias was in love with him as a Texas kid when he was working in Houston years ago. He is a first round draft pick, and like, the other guy is, right, you know? So they were back to back in the draft, right? So at that point to think, well, if this is the guy you’re in love with, I mean, scouts fall in love with play. Clearly, Eric di Costa was in love with roquan Smith when he couldn’t draft him, right? Sure, he went up, going and getting him and saying, that’s the guy I would have had if I had the fourth pick in the draft. So then the arm injury, and him coming back and, I mean, let’s talk about his effort on Sunday, right? I mean, he throws 100 miles an hour. Let’s he’s got an arm.

Luke Jones  14:35

I mean, he’s got a he’s got a really good arm. I think the knuckle curve is his best pitch. In fact. I mean, Albernaz even talked about it. Thought he could have thrown it a little more earlier in the outing. You know, his fastball command wasn’t great. Obviously, the three run double, you know, guy out at third. You know, it wasn’t, I guess, technically, there’s two RBIs, but fastball up, you know, certainly wasn’t a good pitch. You know, even if you throw 99 you don’t want to. Throw it in that spot, necessarily. So, you know, it wasn’t, obviously, statistically, it wasn’t a great outing, but I did like the fact that he was able to recover and still pitch into the sixth inning. You know, you give up a four, a four spot in the second inning. You’re wondering if you’re going to be in the game much longer. So for him to get into the sixth inning, especially with how, how, how, how much of a grind it was for their bullpen after that. Man, thank goodness he got into the sixth inning, because otherwise they’re not winning that game. So, yeah, you want them to be better than he was. I didn’t think it was anything where, oh my gosh, you know, like, and there was going to be a referendum one way or the other. I mean, I had a few fans saying on Twitter, oh, I can’t believe they paid $68 million for this. And look, that’s just being a baseball fan. I get that, but, you know, he’s got a good arm, and I think the interesting thing for him and for the organization is, you know, it I wasn’t surprised. I mean, I was surprised because it was the first one that the Orioles had done, but I wasn’t really surprised that they extended Samuel beside right, obviously, being an international signing, his upbringing, he was always, of all their prospects, he was always going to be the guy at the top of the list that would be the, the most plausible to be able to do that kind of a deal with, where you do it right out of the gate. You know, it’s, it’s very cheap compared to, you know, even if you’ve tried to sign like Jackson holiday to an extension today, you know, the beside your deal would be a fraction of what it would cost, right?

Nestor Aparicio  16:33

So Scott and Boris

Luke Jones  16:35

are involved. Well, yeah, I mean, there’s always that part of it, but, but there’s also the element of he was a homegrown guy you’re intimately familiar with. Samuel besayo. He’s been in your system for five or six years now, five years now. So that’s not not stunning on that front, but it is interesting to not just give up what they gave up in terms of Prospect capital and a draft pick. But then to invest this kind of deal, which it’s not insane money, but it’s very real money. You know, it’s certainly money that you’re hoping at a at worst, he’s a good number three, number four starter for you over the next five years. You know that that would be the bottom of the ranges of acceptable outcomes. You’re hoping for it to be more but, but I think what’s interesting is that he was so open to this from the standpoint of familiarity, you know, new organization, new people. But as he pointed out, he was with Zach Eflin in Tampa Bay, in fact, like it was interesting, Zach Eflin spoke about the fact that, you know, and boss was on the shelf when efflin was in Tampa Bay. But he spoke about how impressed he was that he just his maturity the way he talked about his craft at a young age. You know, Andrew Kittredge, what was in Tampa Bay, and obviously, knows Boz very well. I mean, Bos and Colton cowser played, you know, they grew up in the same area, and they knew each other, kind of playing in Little League, you know. So, so there were some, yeah, there’s some individuals that could vouch a little bit more for him, but I think it was evident that, you know, maybe, that you know, michaelias wasn’t going to do this the day after they traded for him, but I’m guessing this was something that was on their mind not long after they acquired him. So it is unique in that way, Elias has a relationship

Nestor Aparicio  18:31

with the agent too, right? Yeah,

Luke Jones  18:32

yeah. So, so, you know, I mean, and there’s always that. I mean, Elias talked about remembering him when they when Boz was in the draft, and you know, what he thought about him then, and what’s happened since then? And obviously the health has been a big piece of this. But, you know, he pitched well when second half of 2024 and then last year, Steinbrenner field, we know how that went. I mean, we saw the Orioles play there and what that was like. I mean, I I still remember the pop up that Adley rutsman hit in right field that went out, you know, it was, did not look like a home run at all. It was a home run. So, you know, Boz had a an era in the high threes on the road. So that was, you know, that was a baseline that I’ll take, you know, from a young from a younger guy. So, yeah, there’s risk here. I’m not, I’m not sitting here and saying that, Oh, you know, there’s no questioning this, or there’s no wondering about this at the same time. You also have to understand that in order to get a player to sign an extension, you’re going to have to take some risk as well. And like I said, Trevor Rogers would laugh at that that offer. You know, Trevor Rogers is representation. Would laugh at that offer right now, because Trevor Rogers is going to be way worth way more than 13. You know, 13, 14 million a year. If he goes out and has even a he’s not going to have a sub two era again. But even if he has another season where he pitches to a 3.2 era, he’s going to get more than that on the open market. So there are very like. Limited windows for various players. And to your point, if you’re a Scott Boris client, there may never be a window period for doing this with certain players, but if you have an opportunity that, you say, okay, you know this, there’s some risk involved here. There’s no doubt. But you know, you kind of look at this deal, Shane Boz would have to be really, really lousy for us to not at least play out his arbitration years, our club control years. So we get to the final two years, 29 and 30, and we say, okay, it’s $21 million in 2029 $25 million in 2030 do we think he’s going to be that kind of pitcher? Do we think in our range of outcomes when we project out how Shane boss’s career is going to go, is there a wide enough range of outcomes where we feel comfortable with that kind of number projecting that out? And if the answer is yes, you go to the player and the agent and you ask, and if he says yes, then great, I’m not going to sit here and say it’s going to work out at the same time, if Shane boss does blossom into becoming what his upside is, oh my gosh, two years, $46 million for a number one or number two starter in four years, Michaelia, so look like a freaking genius then. So I don’t know, I I’m not going to sit here and say that. I know that’s going to happen. I’m guessing he’s probably not going to become a number one, but if he’s at least a number three or a really solid number two, that deal is going to be a bargain by then. So if he gets hurt again and he flames out, then, yeah, it’s not going to look great, do I think it’ll be a deal that’s so awful that it’s a fireable offense. You know? I mean, it depends how, probably depends how arrogant Michael, arrogant he feels about it more

Nestor Aparicio  21:48

than anyone else at that. Well, you just mentioned that. The key thing is, and I would encourage anybody to read my letters to Elias or Eric Getty or Katie Griggs or Albernaz. I have something coming for Sasha here soon too, and the Elon Tusk, Elon Musk tunnel underneath of the stadium. But I think it’s just such a dawning of a new era. This is something you and I would never be discussing. No, you know, we had the Ubaldo Jimenez is around here, and the Kyle Gibson’s and the Charlie Morton’s, and it’s just not the way the Angelos family did things around here, so it is a dawning of possibilities. And if they’re trying to splash for the fans and saying, we’re different and we’re doing things differently, they

Luke Jones  22:30

are, yeah, yeah. And look, I mean, I, I don’t even think this is necessarily that popular with the fans, but it’s, it’s a long term commitment. It’s, it’s identifying someone that first of all, you went out and acquired. I mean, they literally traded two of their first round picks from last year’s, last summer’s draft, to get him. Like, that’s, it’s what they think about him as a pitcher. Now again, he’s gonna have to go out and do it. And I know, like his debut wasn’t anything memorable, right? It was a four run second inning that kind of spoiled everything. You know, he regrouped, and that was well and good, but you know, it still wasn’t anything special.

Nestor Aparicio  23:07

The look on his face when beavers lost the ball, yeah, I

Luke Jones  23:10

mean, obviously and fortunately, that there was no harm, no foul, on that later that inning, but, but, yeah, I think, I think as much, this says a lot about how they feel about him as a person, and I don’t want to talk out of turn here. I mean, I literally hadn’t spoken to Shane Boz at all until this weekend, right? I mean, the zoom that they had when they traded for him, I think it was in the middle of a Ravens practice, and I wasn’t able to even be on that so, but his teammates, I was impressed by this. And look, I’ve been at enough contract extensions over the years where you know you can count on a few players being present. I kid you not. Man, I’d have to really think about who wasn’t at the press conference, and they had it. I think they had it a little bit before they had to report to the ballpark on Saturday. So they were all in there. They like this guy, you know, they, you know, he, he’s right there playing, you know, they’ve got a new shuffleboard thing in the clubhouse, and he’s right there. I mean, he’s, he’s not a loner. He’s, he’s, you can tell he’s a vibes guy, you know, he’s not necessarily overly energetic in the way, like Blaze Alexander. That’s been my first impression of him. But you can tell, you can tell the boys like him, you know. So there was a, you know, there was a good attendance for that. And look, I don’t know if this is going to be a genius deal, a deal that works out perfectly fine, or a deal that doesn’t work out. And three years from now, we’re saying, oh my gosh, you gotta you owe Shane boss $46 million over the next two years. I mean, you know, you could question whether they even want to bring them back at this point in time. I mean, we don’t know that, right? I mean, it’s, it’s pitching and it’s baseball, right? You just don’t know they think he can be

Nestor Aparicio  24:59

a dude on certain. It’s for Shane. Think he can

Luke Jones  25:01

be that kind of guy. And if he can be that guy, man, you do look at it and say, Okay, this is, I can see why they’re doing this. I see the upside with him. And I think this is also, not only is this just Mike Elias saying he’s bullish on Shane Boz, this is really a statement, and this has the potential to really be a referendum and a validation for their pitching development, which we’ve scrutinized the heck out of their pitching, right? Not so much that they haven’t been able to develop anyone, because we’ve seen the diamonds in the rough in terms of, you know even what they did with someone like Albert Suarez, right? Or, you know what they did with Jen, your Cano, or Jorge Lopez or CNL Perez for a few years. I mean, they’d had Felix Batista, they’ve had those kind of stories. But I think some of this is one. We identified someone who is this former first round pick. You know, he was originally part, you know, he was the player to be named in the Chris Archer deal once upon a time, right where the, you know, the pirates send him to Tampa Bay. And you know, he was on Prospect lists, and then he gets hurt, and then he comes back. And, you know, had a good second half of 24 last year overall, statistically, nothing to write home about. We know the ballpark deal down in Tampa, all that, but they looked at this guy and say, Man, there’s quite a canvas here, like there’s something, there’s a masterpiece that we could possibly mold here. You know, again, I’m not going to say he’s going to become the next Paul Skeens or anything nuts. But let’s just say, you know, he’s another guy that you can throw in there with Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers, which is, you know, this what they’ve tried to do. If he can legitimately become that, you know, whether it’s a one two or a heck of a number three, then this deal looks really smart. And I think this can has the possibility to kind of be a flagship guy for their pitching development, which, by the way, I’ll remind everyone for all the changes they made in terms of a new manager, new hitting coaches, new bait they kept drew French and the pitching coaches, so that does tell you something About the conviction they have with those guys now, statistically, the last couple years, No, it hasn’t been great, but at the same time, like, what are you expecting when it’s Sagano, they haven’t had great arms, right? 40, you know, 41 year old Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson at the very end of his career, right? So? But this is a guy where you say, Okay, you invested some, you know, you gave up some real capital to get this guy, and now you’ve invested actual capital in a contract for this guy, pitching development and pitching coaches, man, go to work, go make this guy as great as you think he’s going to be. And if you do that, then this deal will be, will look like a freaking steal in a couple years. But if not, then it will, it?

Nestor Aparicio  28:00

Will they win the World Series this year next year? It

Luke Jones  28:02

doesn’t matter? Yeah? Well, yeah. I mean, yeah. I mean, obviously, when you look at it through that lens, but, but even if, not even even if you don’t do that, but he’s still a really important part of what you’re doing, and he’s been a part of, you know, getting you to the playoffs, and he’s starting a game two or a game three in a postseason series, or maybe a game one. Who knows. Then you look at all that, then you just bought out his first two years of free agency. And I’ll remind everyone, if you weren’t convinced by what Dylan C Scott and what framber Valdez got and what Ranger Suarez just got in free agency, go look at what Terek scobel’s going to get this fall, and you’re going to realize, oh, five years, $68 million No, that’s not, not money for an ace or money for a number two. I mean, that’s, that’s the going rate for a three or a four right now. So that’s the floor for what you’re what you need to see.

Nestor Aparicio  28:55

He also was a guy who’s been hurt, who didn’t get paid, who only has a couple million in the bank. This was a life changing deal for him, and he took it, yeah, and he flat

Luke Jones  29:05

he flat out, acknowledged, like, I love the fact that I don’t have to worry about that anymore. I even asked him on Sunday, because I wanted to ask him this question after Sunday’s game, I asked him, did signing the contract before you made right, before you made your Orioles debut? Did that add to your nerves? Like, like, did you feel a little more, you know, more butterflies than you normally would have felt? And, you know, he downplayed that, and he said, honestly, like, I feel at ease. I I know where I’m going to be now. Like, this team wants me. I want to be here. I feel comfortable here. I like it here, you know, I, I What? After one spring training. I really like it here, I mean, and obviously, you know, truth serum would say, Yeah, you like it a lot more when, when they commit $68 million to you. But the point is, he can settle in now and with young guys. I mean, you just said it. I mean, yes, we kind of look at it through the lens of, okay, you know, in a case like Adley rutsman, for example, big. Signing bonus, right? Jackson holiday. And Jackson holiday is a bad example, because he grew up, you know, with the son of a an all star outfielder, right? He grew up with wealth, but you look at those guys, but so many young players are in this position where, you know, they’re kind of in Purgatory, from a standpoint of, there’s still the risk of, if you’re not very good, they can get rid of you. Because even if club, club control like it’s a one way street, right? I mean, the club can get rid of you just like that, but you can’t go anywhere, and until you get to arbitration, you’re not making any money either. I mean, you know, like, whatever. Then don’t get me wrong, I’m not crying poor for someone that makes the league minimum, which is way more money than, you know, the average guy on the street, but, but there’s a lot of uncertainty in those years for a player. There’s certainty in knowing that if you play well, you’re going to be there. But there’s a lot of uncertainty in terms of, one, how much money you’re going to make, and two, if you do have some struggles. Are you going to be in the minor leagues, right? I mean, Shane boss, before he signs this deal, if he was awful over the first two months, Yep, he’s looking at being at Norfolk, right? I mean, look at what happened with Trevor Rogers two years ago with the trade, right? He got sent down, what? Four starts into his Oreos career, three starts, whatever it was. So there is something to be said for the player where it’s very early still, he hasn’t tasted the success that gives him cost certain, or, you know, certainty in the future as far as what he’s going to command. So yeah, he jumps at this. That’s but what, like I said, What, as a player goes on and has more success, and he’s getting closer to free agency, a deal like this doesn’t make much sense, right? I mean, maybe Kyle Bradish would sign that kind of deal right now. I’m guessing probably not, because I’m guessing the Orioles would if Kyle Bradish would accept five years, $68 million right now, I would absolutely, I’d absolutely do it with him, but I’m guessing probably not as simple with him, and certainly not going to get Trevor Rogers to do that deal, right? I mean, Trevor Rogers, you know, he’s not going to get 40 million a year on the open market, but, you know, if he pitches really well, he’s going to do way better than two years 46 Right? Which is, you know what the end of this deal looks like. So, you know, I think you look at this thing and you take it for what it is, there’s absolutely some risk. I hear what you’re saying. I’m not sitting here saying the Orioles needed to do this. I think they’re viewing this as an opportunity. This is an investment. This is, this is not, if you’re talking about it in terms of investments, you know, like, this would be something that, yeah, is a riskier stock, but you also think has a much higher upside than just sticking with, I don’t know, like mutual funds or something like that, right?

Nestor Aparicio  32:46

Well, the soundness after Tommy John is also something the industry has to sit on, right? I mean,

Luke Jones  32:53

well, and there’s Right. And, you

Nestor Aparicio  32:56

know, there used to be a thought that if you were broken before, you’ll be broken again. The Tommy John thing feels like maybe he won’t make it. They get stronger, and then they don’t break after that. Yeah. I mean,

Luke Jones  33:07

it’s tough because there’s no there’s no certainty, and this is why I always balk when someone’s, you know, when someone starts having elbow issues,

Nestor Aparicio  33:16

Corbin burns. Looks so good here two years ago, right?

Luke Jones  33:18

I mean, guys are durable until they’re not. And look, we see guys. I mean, Spencer Strider, look at him. I mean, what he was for the Braves a few years ago, and the injuries that he’s having Strasburg

Nestor Aparicio  33:29

would be the greatest example on mass. And two, of course, you know, they got a parade down there. They had it all going on for a minute or two. They had their minute they you know, and that all comes because his arm didn’t fall off when it fell Strasbourg on pub, but specifically, but he’s the best of the best Hall of Fame Colfax kind of guy, right?

Luke Jones  33:49

But, but the modern

Nestor Aparicio  33:50

era, the National sunk a lot of money into that. They got a ring out of it, but they suck a lot of money into that, and winds up being bad. Sunk money anytime you get hurt. I mean, what the Diamondbacks are going through with Corbin burns right now it, I mean, it would have smelled really nice for Elias to say here I brought us Corbin burns. It’s pitching man. I mean, there’s,

Luke Jones  34:11

there’s, well, it is a crap shoot, yeah. And, and that’s why, at times you do need to take some risk, and at other times you need to mitigate, right?

Nestor Aparicio  34:18

And, and they love this guy. They like this guy

Luke Jones  34:21

a lot, and I think, I think they’re really betting on the profile for him to pop. And again, I’m not saying he’s going to win a Cy Young Award, but they think he has that kind of a profile and makeup that he might become that. And if he does, then, holy cow, this deal makes all the sense in the world. But like I said, even if the baseline is really rock solid, number three, number four starter, especially projecting out what’s going to be the market for that three, four or five years from now, that’s probably going to be a perfectly fine deal, perfectly acceptable deal in that way. So. Was a little cocky for

Nestor Aparicio  35:00

Elias, though, to think that he’s going to get over

Luke Jones  35:03

on it first. That’s fine, yeah. And look, I mean, this is definitely something. And I thought this was interesting, because I don’t think David Rubenstein even necessarily intended for it to come across this way. But his quote where he said, because he was kind of asked about ownerships role in, you know, especially talking about these extensions and the money they’re starting to spend now. But he flat out said, you know, and I’ll read you the exact quote, because I just thought it was interesting. What we’ve told Mike is, he’s the expert in baseball talent, and he’s got a lot more experience than Mike era Getty or I do, so we will be willing to back him financially to whatever he thinks makes sense. And so we’ve done that. I don’t think we’ve turned down any of his requests, and we’re open for business. Mike has a great reputation in knowing how to assess talent, so we’re very happy with this. When he told me this was possible, we encouraged him to move forward and to get it done. We hope it’s assigned to people that were very serious about making this a long term proposition for the ownership group and for the team. I thought it was. I don’t think he meant it this way, but he made it clear, this is a mike Elias idea, right? So if Shane buzz completely flames out, Mike garage, and I’m not saying that they would even do this publicly, but behind closed doors, ownership can kind of say, Mike, you extended a guy literally two, three months after you traded for him, before he even threw a pitch for us. And it didn’t work out, like, what the heck, right? So I don’t, I really don’t think that was his intention there, but I did find that interesting to kind of make it clear that, hey, this was Mike’s idea, and as it should be, I would, I certainly would not want David Rubenstein being the one that was behind this idea, right? I mean,

Nestor Aparicio  36:45

well, and that much has been clear right away, that this isn’t John Angelos and Lou Angelo’s getting together wanting Sid Fernandez,

Luke Jones  36:53

yeah, yeah. So, I mean, and, but like I said, we have to also understand what the market is. Just because the Orioles haven’t played in that market for the most part over the years doesn’t mean that that like you still have to have a grasp of what that is. So that’s where I look at this and say, Okay, I get it. You kind of look at how the deal is structured, and it kind of goes through and he pays him out, you know, he would do well in arbitration to make 7 million next year and 10 million the following year, you know, whether it go to arbitration or whether it would be, you know, agreeing to terms and avoiding arbitration, but, but that’s why you kind of look at it and say, as long as he’s not hurt, as long as he’s not god awful or anything like that, then, yeah, you kind of look at this and say, Okay, you Get to the last two years where you’re buying out his first two years of free agency, and it’s a two year, $46 million deal. Are you comfortable with that or not? Do you believe that he’s going to become a pitcher worth that, you know, worthy of that? At the very least, if you do, then it makes all the sense in the world. If you don’t feel that way and you’re not confident in him then, yeah, it’s a foolish deal. You know, I’m not gonna so, but I think it’s very clear they’re very bullish on him. And as I said, there’s a range of outcomes here that still makes this a perfectly acceptable deal. He does not need to become whatever his ceiling says he can become, which his ceiling would say he’d be a number one

Nestor Aparicio  38:18

starter for them. This brings you to Bassett and to efflin, and where Bradish is in trying to find himself, and where Rogers is probably going to get himself wealthy if he, if he perks on all of this, you know, the Bassett at 19 million in the here and now. I love it. He’s going to take the ball. You know, efflin coming back, who was the opening day starter last year, who is a, you know, if Shane boss becomes Zach Eflin, it’s a fine deal. I mean, you know, really it is. They have credible starting pitching, so much so that Dean Kramer, who at one point might have been the guy five years ago that they would have given that kind of money to, and said, Hey, you’re you’re coming on, kid, you’re going to be our two or three, maybe our three or four, maybe not. If they would have had 19 million into Dean Kramer this year or next year, let’s say, given wherever the trajectory of arbitration and all that would be, it wouldn’t smell great, but it wouldn’t smell like what Corbin Byrne smells like right now, or what Strasburg smelled like after the real injury, which is, we got sunk money into someone who cannot perform, and it leaves them flexibility, and it gives them certainty. I’m not against the deal. It was curious. But I also, I think talking about Bassett nefflin And where the whole thing is going to go this year, is they like their starting five to be this good every year. If this, if every April after the first weekend, you and I are talking about Bassett and efflin, or guys of their caliber being fourth and fifth starters around here, they’ll have a pretty good ball club around here the next four or five years.

Luke Jones  39:59

No question about. About it. And the other element, I’m glad you brought that up, because it’s relevant, is you do want to think about the long term and how your rotation projects out. Trevor Rogers going to be a free agent after this year. Bassett is on a one year deal. Efflin is on a one year deal, right? So right now, because they’ve done this deal assuming health. And look, you can never assume help health, but you can’t assume injury either, right? So, so you’re looking at it through that lens the Orioles right now, if they’re looking at what their 2027 opening day rotation is, you’re hoping Kyle Bradish and Shane Boz are at the top. And you know whether, whether Trevor Rogers resigns or not, you’ve got those two guys. And you’re looking at what, you have a triple A, and you still have Dean Kramer, right? So you’re hoping Trey Gibson’s going to be in that mix as the year goes on, because he’s at triple A. They’ve got some, you know, Nestor Hermann. They’ve got some other arms at triple A, right now. You know that, you know, you’re hoping some combination of those guys can be in the conversation, certainly by next year. So, yeah, I like this. I, you know, Bassett and Eflin were going to get a chance to see them. And I, I’ve said this, I really for the first time in a while, and again, it set up the year that they got burns, but then we found out immediately about Bradish, and then Grayson Rodriguez got hurt later in the year, and it never materialized the way you wanted it to, but it’s it’s been a long time for to look at an Oriole starting rotation and say it’s got some ceiling guys and it’s got some high floor guys, and that’s what you want. And they’ve got some depth to the point where Dean Kramer, who led them in innings a year ago is starting at triple A Norfolk. Right now, I don’t think it’s gonna be for long, but for right now, that’s a good place to be that. That’s how you forget about getting the October just navigating 162 games you need. I drew French. Said it the other day. Think the Major League average is 12 starting pitchers that that’ll team will use over the course of a season. And you know, there’s some nuance with that and openers and different things you do. But point is, you’re not going to have the same five for the entire season, so you better have some depth. And for the first time in a while, it feels like the Orioles actually have some viable depth in addition to the upside and the high floor that they have in their current rotation. And hey, that that’s a good thing. That is how you get to October. And that is how you when you get to October. You’ve got some guys that you might say, Hey, I you know Boz and Bradish are healthy and and Trevor Rogers does what he did last year. Man, it’s not the best rotation in baseball, but I’ll take those guys going in an October series. Man, if you can do that, then, boy, things get that much more exciting around here, that’s for sure. All right, we’ll break it off.

Nestor Aparicio  42:57

Looks gonna be watching baseball all week. Rangers in town, we will be around. If there’s any breaking news, you get it first on the wnsd tech service. They sign anybody else give a whole bunch of money, and Rubenstein shows up for another press conference. We’ll get it all out to you on the wnsd tech service, brought to you by Cole roofing and Gordian energy. He is Luke. I am Nestor. We are W NSD. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, pitching, defense, bats, birds. It’s baseball season. Stay with us. You.