Ravens-Steelers: Five predictions for Sunday

Pittsburgh is where last season’s collapse began for the Ravens. 

With a conference-best 8-3 record and a lead entering the fourth quarter in Week 13 last December, Baltimore surrendered 17 points over the final 15 minutes, lost top cornerback Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending injury, and fell 20-19 after a failed 2-point conversion try. Star quarterback Lamar Jackson went down with an ankle injury the following week, and the Ravens lost their final six games to miss the playoffs. 

Despite losing Jackson to a left knee injury last week that will keep him out for an undetermined period of time, John Harbaugh’s team still found a way to win to improve to 8-4 and is determined not to allow history to repeat itself. Beating the rival Steelers on Sunday would be a big step toward convincing observers and, more importantly, themselves. 

It’s also not a secret that Pittsburgh has won four straight in the rivalry, Baltimore’s longest drought against the Steelers since losing five in a row from 2001-03. 

“We know. We know,” tight end Mark Andrews said. “We’re excited about the game.” 

It’s time to go on the record as these AFC North adversaries collide for the 57th time in the all-time series (counting the playoffs) with the Steelers leading 32-24. The last time a Pittsburgh quarterback other than the retired Ben Roethlisberger beat the Ravens was Charlie Batch on Dec. 2, 2012. 

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Below are five predictions for Sunday: 

1. Kenny Pickett and Tyler Huntley will each run for at least 40 yards. With both of these defenses playing so well of late, this doesn’t figure to be a fun day for the Steelers rookie or Jackson’s understudy, but each quarterback has the ability to make plays with his legs to try to neutralize the opponent’s pass rush. Inside linebacker Roquan Smith noted the need for the Ravens to “confuse” Pickett, but they can’t allow him to break the pocket in the process. The mobile Huntley ran for 72 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 18 last year and will likely need a similar output to give the Ravens their best chance to win. 

2. Devin Duvernay will find the end zone for just the second time since Week 3. Duvernay has been playing more than ever and logged a career-high 68 offensive snaps in last week’s win over Denver, but we’ll see if Greg Roman builds on the eight touches Duvernay saw against the Broncos, which matched his season high. With Jackson out of the lineup and this offense managing 13 or fewer points in two of the last three games, it’s time for Roman to open the vault and find more ways to get Duvernay involved as a receiver and as a runner.

3. Pat Freiermuth will catch a touchdown and lead Pittsburgh in receiving yards. Even in limiting the hapless Broncos to nine points last week, the Ravens continued having difficulty covering tight ends as Denver rookie Greg Dulcich caught six passes for 85 yards. Freiermuth leads Pittsburgh with 597 receiving yards despite catching only one touchdown this season, and he’s been a reliable target for Pickett, who’s shown some improvement as a passer and better ball security since the Steelers’ Week 9 bye. Inside linebacker Patrick Queen being at less than 100% from last week’s thigh bruise makes this matchup even more notable. 

4. Baltimore tailbacks will set season highs for receptions and receiving yards. OK, this isn’t exactly a high bar as the best the Ravens have done this year was six catches for 34 yards against Buffalo in Week 4, but Huntley’s 13-yard completion to Kenyan Drake was the key play of last week’s game-winning touchdown. The Ravens also had success throwing to backs in Pittsburgh last year with Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray combining for seven catches for 79 yards. Per Football Outsiders, the Steelers rank 26th in pass coverage efficiency against running backs this season, which should be good news for Drake, Justice Hill, and potentially even J.K. Dobbins. 

5. A late turnover will prove costly as the Steelers edge the Ravens in a 16-13 final. Huntley is a good backup quarterback and has earned the confidence of his teammates and coaches, but Pittsburgh saw him last year and Sharp Football noted this week that the Ravens scored a touchdown on just 17.1% of their drives without Jackson on the field last season, which would have ranked 28th for the entire season. The current offense has less talent at wide receiver and hadn’t been playing particularly well even with Jackson at quarterback before managing a single touchdown last week. That doesn’t inspire confidence going to Pittsburgh to take on Mike Tomlin’s improving Steelers, a team eager to knock off its rival and hold on to what little playoff hope it still has. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams and 22 of the last 28 have been decided by a single score, a trend that won’t change despite Roethlisberger’s retirement and Jackson’s absence. But home-field advantage will give the Steelers the ultimate edge in an old-school defensive struggle that feels much more like a coin flip than it did a few weeks ago.