Instead of going through the exercise of making mindless NFL-wide predictions for the 2024 campaign, the following are only somewhat mindless predictions for the Ravens entering their 29th season in Baltimore:
1. Lamar Jackson won’t lead the Ravens in rushing, but he’ll still run to career milestones.
General manager Eric DeCosta isn’t paying Derrick Henry $9 million for his two-time MVP quarterback to lead Baltimore in rushing for a sixth straight season, but the idea isn’t to run the 30-year-old running back into the ground before January either. Wanting Jackson to run less is sort of like asking Superman not to fly, but we indeed saw fewer designed runs under Todd Monken last year, a trend that’s expected to continue. Still, Jackson’s scrambling ability may prove as important as ever with three starters gone from last year’s offensive line. Jackson is one 50-yard rushing game shy of breaking a tie with Michael Vick for most by a quarterback in league history, and he needs just 370 rushing yards to pass Cam Newton for second on the all-time rushing list for quarterbacks. Jackson also enters the season just 851 rushing yards behind Vick, the all-time leader. The days of the 27-year-old Jackson eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards may be over, but he didn’t shed that weight in the offseason to stand in the pocket.
2. There will be two new starters on the offensive line by Halloween.
This is working under the assumption that versatile veteran Patrick Mekari opens the 2024 season as the right tackle, and it’s only a matter of time before second-round rookie Roger Rosengarten is starting there after the two split first-team reps for much of the summer. I’m still not convinced Ben Cleveland isn’t one of Baltimore’s two best options at guard, but it’s evident the coaching staff doesn’t have the necessary belief or trust in him, which is why Andrew Vorhees and former tackle Daniel Faalele enter the season as the starters. Whether it’s Cleveland getting his chance at some point or even a trade before the deadline, we’ve seen plenty of examples over the years to remember the Week 1 offensive line is written in pencil — not pen. Its growth and improvement is critical to the 2024 season.
3. Kyle Hamilton will finish in the top three for NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
A safety hasn’t won this AP award since Troy Polamalu in 2010 and only five — including Ed Reed in 2004 — have won since the honor was introduced in 1971, so predicting Hamilton to win isn’t exactly a high-percentage bet. But is there a perfect-storm path to a season of five interceptions, five sacks, five forced fumbles, and 100 tackles for the dynamic and versatile Hamilton at some point over the next few years? That’s the kind of stat line that would demand serious consideration for someone who just earned first-team All-Pro honors in his second season. Hamilton, 23, may not achieve that this season, but he’s a special talent and many are taking notice.
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4. Zay Flowers will post the 15th 1,000-yard receiving season in franchise history.
There’s nothing particularly deep or bold about this prediction after the 2023 first-round pick had 77 catches and 858 receiving yards on 108 targets as a rookie, reflecting Jackson’s immediate trust in the 5-foot-9, 175-pound speedster. The presence of Isaiah Likely tamps down Mark Andrews’ 1,000-yard potential, but Flowers is the undisputed No. 1 wide receiver in this offense even as some continue hoping for a breakout from 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman.
5. Baltimore will sweep Pittsburgh for the first time since 2019.
Even understanding Jackson has sat out four of the last five meetings between these AFC North rivals, the Ravens losing seven of the last eight is still ridiculous, especially considering there were late-game heroics from ex-Steeler Kenny Pickett on multiple occasions over that stretch. I’m not buying Russell Wilson lasting the season as Mike Tomlin’s starter or Justin Fields emerging as the long-term answer at quarterback, but we know this rivalry is weird. The Ravens have to reverse that, and it starts with Jackson being on the field for both games.
6. Odafe Oweh will lead the Ravens in sacks.
There’s good news and bad news here. Of the eight Baltimore players with at least 150 pass-rush snaps last season, only Jadeveon Clowney (16.0%) had a higher pressure rate than Oweh’s 15.5% and the former had 155 more rushes to collect his 9 1/2 sacks compared to the latter’s five, per Next Gen Stats. The football analytics community will tell you pressure rate is a good predictor of future sacks, so I’ll buy Oweh setting a new career high of nine. On the flip side, the 33-year-old Kyle Van Noy — who had a strong 14.6% pressure rate — matching last year’s career-best nine feels unlikely in his 11th season, but he’ll remain a legitimate edge presence. Per the FTN Almanac, only four interior defensive linemen have posted back-to-back double-digit-sack seasons since 2000, meaning Nnamdi Madubuike matching his 13 sacks would be a very rare accomplishment. That doesn’t mean Madubuike and his 13.4% pressure rate from last year won’t remain a force, but he’ll surely receive more attention from opponents this year, meaning it’ll be critical for others to take advantage. Some combination of Travis Jones, David Ojabo, and Tavius Robinson must emerge for the Ravens to come close to last year’s 60 sacks.
7. The Ravens will finish 11-6 to edge Cincinnati for the AFC North via tiebreaker before these rivals meet for a third time in the divisional round.
Jackson and Joe Burrow are top five quarterbacks in the NFL, making it brutal that we’ve yet to experience a season where both are healthy and facing off in critical December or January games. The Ravens and Bengals both have enough questions that will keep them from securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed and will split the regular-season series that concludes in early November, meaning we’ll have to wait two months for a rubber match to determine who advances to the conference title game. I’ll let you fill in the blanks from there since I’ve sworn off predicting a full January breakthrough until I witness it with my own eyes, but a legitimate Jackson-Burrow playoff clash is what we need to fully ignite this division rivalry.
