As the losses suddenly stack up on the Baltimore Orioles, Luke Jones and Nestor Aparicio discuss what happens after the losing streak and when and how the pitching help will appear in a trade. And how soon?
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
year, pitching, pitchers, orioles, team, baseball, elias, starts, money, terms, october, tommy john, hard, week, win, throw, talking, corbin, rubinstein, pitch
SPEAKERS
Nestor J. Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor J. Aparicio 00:02
Welcome home we are W n s t tassel. Baltimore. Baltimore positive we’re positively into Fourth of July week at some point the Orioles might win a game. We will be back after it. We had such a good time at Pappus on Tuesday, you’ll hear it all week long. Some old friends, some new friends, some former rivals and John Patty’s WPA l joining us here, as well as the old friends like Steve Elliot from Elliott chiropractic, and some new friends as well over paps. We’re going to be a fade Lee’s on the 12th of July. That’s Friday, when the Yankees come in here. Hopefully we’re on 24 games back after the all star breaking before shooting before the all star break. But after the fourth of July, that is Friday the 12th we will be there courtesy of our friends at the Maryland lottery, we’ll have the Gold Rush sevens doublers to give away that election to market on 12. This guy’s going to watch a lot of baseball between now and then and hopefully he’ll get down to Wildwood with his family and do his Max pizza thing. But to be about that time, and I called it a June swoon. ad on Facebook, Luke Jones and um, oh, no, I mean, you know, we could sit here and go with the sky is falling and all that. I mean, you and I’ve discussed what would happen if they don’t make the pitching better. And that was before they started losing pitching. You know, they need to improve in a lot of different ways. And certainly hitting the baseball is something that’s a little disconcerting the last couple of days, not last week, but this week. I don’t want to say I’m too concerned about this, but they’re playing good teams right now. And I don’t like losing a good team, especially not at home.
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Luke Jones 01:33
Yeah, I mean, look, I’m not gonna sit here and sugarcoat a five game losing streak. It’s the first time they’ve lost five in a row since just a few days before Adley rutschman arrived in the majors. I mean, that’s how long it’s been. So it’s both a credit to them, but also a reminder of, you know, it’s baseball and you can be humbled and you can really be humbled when you’re starting to spring some leaks and in terms of your pitching now, Tuesday night, I think was such a frustrating affair because you score eight times your offense, that should be more than enough to win with even mediocre pitching, but even the offense on Tuesday night and this is what made this law so frustrating. There one for left 11 with runners in scoring position, they left runners on base, they had the bases loaded nobody out in the seventh inning and scored one run. They had two men on stranded in the in the eighth inning after the Santander homerun they had the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning. But this is why I said to you a couple days ago, this Cleveland bullpen that it gets late early because they’ve been that good. But yeah, we don’t want it we certainly aren’t going to bury the lead here, which is CO erven, which is yen, your canola and the late innings. They didn’t pitch well. I mean, that was a lousy pitching performance and McCann with an error that certainly hurt core ovens effort. But Irving was hit hard. And one of the last elements of the big win over the Yankees last week, as you and I were sitting at Costas in the Orioles jumped out to the big league. And I think you made the comment that Corbin needs to give them at least six innings today, you know, it’d be great to give him seven, he didn’t get through five. And he got knocked out of the game because he didn’t hit hard. He was crushed on Tuesday night. I mean that was as uncompetitive of non competitive as he’s looked all year. And that’s concerning when you look at the state of their current starting rotation. So well
Nestor J. Aparicio 03:33
pitching is weird, man because like your arm feels good in April feels like crowd in June because you’ve been throwing and you know, for any of these pitchers. You know, I liken it to Yoga with me yoga feels good the first time the second day to five days in a row it starts to it starts to hurt. And I think pitching is sort of one of those things and looking good in April and feeling good in April, you’re going out to spring training, you’re winding into things. It’s springtime, then it’s 100 degrees out and you’re making your 12 that your 15th your 18th your 20 is start and then it’s August and stuff starts to not be as effective as it may be it was in the same way you don’t run the 20th mile of the marathon same speed you run the fifth, right literally.
Luke Jones 04:18
Yeah. And I don’t even know how much of it is velocity your stuff as much as his command wasn’t good. Now he didn’t walk anyone. So it wasn’t a control issue. But his command was not good. If you look at where the target was, was he hitting the target, but yes, he was still throwing strikes, but you’re catching too much of the plate. And you’re someone that I call Ervin, who is not someone that’s a high Velo high swing and miss kind of guy. You need to be precise, especially against the Yankees last week, and obviously Cleveland on Tuesday night knowing what the the guardians are capable of doing offensively. So you know, it’s one of those scenarios right now where, whatever your priors We’re in terms of how you felt about the Orioles, this five game losing streak has most likely exacerbated that in terms of the pitching. I still want to remind everyone that this team went 49 and 25 of over its first 74 games. And a five game losing streak certainly doesn’t cancel that out should not cancel that out does not cancel that out. But at the same time, when you’ve had some concerns about your pitching and your pitching, has looked like it’s looked over the last week, with what Monday being the exception, I guess, you’re going to be concerned and there’s going to be more urgency for Mike Elias to continue working the phones. And again, I’ve said to you it’s easier said than done in terms of figuring out who exactly are the buyers who exactly are the sellers right now. And you don’t want to completely give away your farm system for a pitcher that isn’t necessarily going to move the needle a ton. But at the same time, you don’t want this to snowball and as I wrote it Baltimore positive.com. And I said this when the Orioles have lost four in a row, it doesn’t change entirely because they’ve lost a fifth in a row. But the biggest thing here is not to let oh and five turn into six and 14. Right. You don’t want this to extend and become a three week period where it is really starting to impact your your record the standings. The saving grace here is the New York Yankees have suddenly forgot how to win games too. They’ve lost seven of their last night. So if someone had told you three weeks ago, the Orioles would have a five game losing streak. You’d fear maybe they’d be seven or eight games out now the way that the Yankees had been playing Yankees are scuffling as well that’s not to make everything okay it’s a reminder that it’s a long season and suddenly the two super heavyweights in the Al East are both struggling so the saving grace here is they haven’t lost a lot of ground in the Al East are two games back Oh don’t
Nestor J. Aparicio 06:58
8you second you said the two heavyweights hold on the guardians are the better team better than either one. So that’s just saying like but in the American League like the guardians are good. We treat the Yankees and and you know, look, I talked to munch the other day. I’ve had Darrell writer on my Cleveland mafia coming in here. They were thinking beaver was going to be part of a sale back in March. They were thinking Tito’s gone. This is no good. I’ve almost compared it to the 83 Orioles with Altobelli. And I always compare that because I’ve watched that game five that I was at up at the vet many many times on bus trips, and Howard Cosell was in the booth, with Earl Weaver really riding him hard to sixth and seventh inning about not being a part of it. And I think this Cleveland team had about Cheeto would feel about it if they go win the World Series this year, you know, or Hargrove or any of the rest of them to try to climb that mountain. But um, you know, I want to tip my cap to the to the Guardians because we talked about doing things the right way and how they do it the Anki spend money and the Dodgers and always, Cleveland is this case study. And I know you brought this up over the weekend, we may maybe even Thursday, we were having a beverage over at Costas just they’ve won a lot of games the last 10 years, you can look at their records a lot of 90s in there. And they don’t spend money and they let guys walk away. And look, man, I’m in love with Westberg like you are, you’re more in love with Henderson than I am because I just keep waiting for it to sort of come back to the mean, at some point. I don’t expect them to look like you know, the natural fur. Maybe he will I don’t know. I mean, you love him. And people love rutschman I don’t know where the money’s going for any of these guys. That’s the issue for both of us. I don’t even know how much money Mr. Rubenstein has. I am of the belief that he doesn’t even own the team yet that John Angelo and his family are still and I don’t have a press conference to ask those questions. But where the money will look like this summer for the obvious needs the Orioles have they had they’re gonna wind up training some of the guys in their system to get better. I don’t know what that means, for starters, relievers, who it’s going to be, whether it’s gonna be Norbi, or mayo or curse stat or whomever will be Couser this year, right? But the young guys, and they start dealing things out. This is where when I have longer conversations with people not as smart as you, by the way about baseball, I will just do this do that. Okay, now three years from now you have no Norbi and Henderson’s $48 million dollars. And all of a sudden, Corbin Burns is on the third year of his deal with the Dodgers or whoever is going to pay him and Ortiz is in his third All Star game. And you start to look around and you say, Okay, how long can we continue to grow talent like this without putting it on the field and giving it away to try to win back in 24. And that’s their dilemma. That’s not my dilemma. And if I sat here and talked to Mike Elias, I would talk to him about it reasonably. But instead we make the conjecture about all this, but I With my eyes like you will see what they do between now and the end of the year and whether they spend money and whether Mr. Rubinstein’s Mister Money pockets and you know what their limitations would be. But no matter what, seeing the ballpark empty the last couple of nights when they’re great and coming back, and like all of that, I am extremely concerned with the original sin, which is, who’s going to pay for it, who’s going to pay for a real 150 170 $5 million team, if you’re dealing away young players, and when I’m at Pappas, and people come to me and talk baseball, they’re like, We need pitching, we need pitching, we got we got young, we had the best farm and Ira and Okay, great. So go deal in three to five of those guys away, the next six weeks. And if you don’t win this year, for whatever reason, because if you win, you get five years of peace, at least they’re gonna get five years of peace from me, if they win the World Series, I don’t care what they do at 27 or 28, or who they sign or they don’t, I mean, I will. But winning winning a World Series not getting to a World Series, talk to Cleveland about that talk to other people about that, not just getting there winning the World Series, they need to do that in the next 36 months. You know, they they’re gonna get three passes at this before, it gets way more complicated. And they’re going to need more than 18,000 out there on Monday night or Tuesday night, they’re going to need money, they’re going to need to finance this somehow. Sponsorship TV revenue, your niece is going down and making you spend $300 On a Sunday afternoon, so they can run the bases. I’m just I’m seeing this for the big picture of yeah, they need pitching. And what are they going to do about it? How much money are they going to spend? But more than that? How many resources are they going to spend? Because I think we’re all have the mindset at base level where they are. And this isn’t a five game losing streak, we would have said this at the bar last Thursday, when they’re winning. They’re gonna need more pitching. And they’re gonna have to give up something substantial to get more pitching.
Luke Jones 11:55
Yeah. And again, who’s available. And that’s why there were people the last couple of seasons, looking at the pitching market, whether it was Nathan ivaldi, two winters ago, looking at some of the guys that were available this year, and look like lice did go out and get Corbin burns. Yeah, one of the best pitchers in baseball, so I’ll be on a rental. But he’s still got them.
Nestor J. Aparicio 12:16
I saw Dallas Keitel moving around that. Well, you know, like that. Okay. I mean, I hear that. I mean, it’s we might as well go get the Lincicome in Barry. Palmer are up to I mean, right, exactly. But I mean, I’m seeing teams trying things. I don’t even know what that means. Whether you want Dallas cuckold be at the end of your bench or not. But but this is, it’s getting real. Now we’re five weeks out on this. And you know who else is going to be looking for pitching I learned this this week. This is where you’re gonna like, let’s get started. If that’s what it cost, who they want. They can’t have this guy. They can’t have that guy that can’t have all of that all of that stuff. And we don’t even know who we’re talking about here. But then I talked to the Cleveland people and they’re like, We see they’re starting pitching. We’re like, well, they would like one to you know, like, we’re not getting the only people out there bidding for a starting pitcher. Yeah,
Luke Jones 13:03
well, and that’s, you know, the point I was bringing up was That’s why I question and it’s not a mike Elias thing. And I continue to see even some media personalities, just hammering alias for where their pitching is right now. And Mike, big question was, where were the realities with the payroll, the last couple winters now, they signed Kyle Gibson, two winters ago, they signed, signed, Jordan Lyles, the year before that, and obviously Lyles was still kind of pre competitive, right? They were just becoming competitive. They
8Nestor J. Aparicio 13:36
had six, eight 10 million around that to make you feel like they had a dude, you had one guy that had been in the big leagues a couple of years. I mean, 118 losses, right, like, you know, whatever. That was an 1819 2021. But they they did put a John put a resource into that, or might put a resource into that. Yeah,
Luke Jones 13:57
but But I guess my question is, could you have done more? Two winters ago, when guys like me were clamoring for ivaldi kind of signing and it didn’t have to be him. Let’s be clear about that. But someone of that ilk. It’s not as though he got $175 million. Right. Go look at what the numbers were. You’d like to think the Orioles could afford that. Not you like they could have there’s enough national TV revenue that’s passed along the teams that that could have been done. You’re on the original sin of whether they have money and help move for Mr. Angelo? Yeah, like they’ve got money. They’ve always had money to do anything they want. Exactly, exactly. They have money. It’s just a matter. We could debate how much we could certainly debate where the payroll could potentially go. But it could certainly go higher. There’s no it couldn’t been couldn’t have been any lower the last couple of years. So that’s where I look at the conundrum that they’re in now where, look, you have the prospects to make these moves. But to your point, and you talked you talked about Just a couple minutes ago, I’m going to sit here and continue to say it because everything we’ve seen to this point in the mike Elias era, does not lead me to believe that he’s going to push all the chips in this year to the point where it is going to compromise them big time. Next year, the year after that, and the year after that, that doesn’t mean they’re not going to trade any prospects at all. They’ve traded prospects already, and they will make some moves here. But one who is available to Who are you willing to give up to get those individuals who might be available? So that’s where I look at this. And that’s where I think it’s been such a missed opportunity that, you know, you couldn’t have made an another savvy, pitching, signing. But I’m not putting that on Mike Elias by any stretch, because again, what were his realities in terms of what he could spend on payroll, the last two winters, so, you know, it’s right now we’re throwing darts as media and fans in terms of trying to determine who are buyers who are sellers? You know, we’ve all heard three weeks ago, you and I were talking about, maybe you bring back someone like Kyle Gibson, well, the Cardinals are in the wildcard thick of the wildcard race in the NFL, the Mets and Severino. That’s a name that I was listening to MLB Network on Sirius the other day, and they were talking about Severino as someone that might be attractive on the open market, while the Mets have suddenly started playing better, and are they going to sell? So? You know, it really is. There’s an obvious need. We know that there will be pitchers available. We know that. However, how many high impact pitchers are going to be available. And if you’re Mike Elias, are you going to overpay for someone that will help but isn’t necessarily going to be the guy that’s going to move the needle to the point where you’re breaking through in October.
Nestor J. Aparicio 16:49
So what the nervous was for me as as a fan, and if I were involved with this would be the Corbin burns conundrum, which is you might only have him this October. So if you think that this is your October, and you’re only going to have these guys I mean, Santander haze coming off the bench Marlins. Look man, this team stack we’ve talked about this. This is the best team we’ve we’ve seen in our lifetime. In Baltimore, based on where the young players are, how they’re performing. Even the veterans even stomped on there with his all his homeruns this month and but the pitching, we keep coming back to and saying how much is enough? How late Do you want to wait? Do you want to three or four or five? How much is it going to cost you in a trade? If you get a really good pitcher? Are you going to throw six eight $10 million? And I guess Rubinstein will do that. I mean, I don’t again, I don’t know him. I haven’t I I’ve met some of his people. They’re nice. I would assume he’s a billionaire. We just think he’s Mr. Bunny moneybags. And like all like, he’ll just go all in and he wants to win. And he’s 74 years old. That’s all fun for him. This is where a crazy owner would say to you I don’t care what we do. I just bought the team. I’m 74 I don’t care about 2028 We’re gonna win now. Because I want to be a hero now. And we got 600 million from the state. We’re going to do this and that and I want to be a hero. You see me handed hats out. You see me signing autographs? I want to be a hero. Maybe? I don’t know. I don’t know Rubinstein’s. I’ve learned enough about him in eight weeks enough to know that I probably will never meet him. And if I do, he will have his ears filled with garbage. So I mean, I’m we’re never gonna get that feedback other than like on draft day with Eric the cost of by what they do, what we’ll find out what they do, and then we’ll measure it and judge it. But I think it’s very, very hard to predict. Given the Angelo’s people running the team still, every Rubenstein hasn’t made one hire. I am of the opinion he doesn’t really own the team. I am of the opinion that the Angelo’s family still has their 60% and Mr. Rubenstein hasn’t cleared the stock because I haven’t seen a headline about that yet. And and you haven’t either and they haven’t had that press conference yet. So I don’t even know how convoluted it might be. The Angelo’s family still involved in this. Greg Vader’s running it. So money wise, money wise with Mike Elias, I cannot be predictive of how crazy this will be. But it is a strange confluence of events where this is a great team. And I’m 55 I can’t wait all night either, right? You’ve never seen them win. So when they have a chance to win, I mean, let’s just say Soto goes down for the Yankees or they have a big injury above and beyond whatever they have. Let’s say that Aaron judge takes one on the wrist and actually can’t play and the Orioles really have a strength going into October with good health good fortune Burns is fine. Rodriguez is fine, maybe even win the division by four games. That expectation on the Ravens last year for Mara and year what five now go in year six, seven for him. I think the Orioles you would say it’s getting early, late or late early however we would say that I don’t feel like they have to win the World Series this year. But I know one thing pretty sure Corbin Burns is as good as it’s gonna get standing in a game one. And they might not have that over the next five years. And they have it now. And that would be my case. If I’m writing a column today, Dear Mr. Rubenstein, please spend the fans money and bring player. This is complicated, because of the long term part of the nor B’s and the current stats and what they would cost the player the next couple years, I looked at Ortiz, I mean, the Brewers wound up getting rid of a guy they weren’t going to sign that they couldn’t afford. And they wind up getting a guy that’s going to play there for five years on the absolute cheap in a market that needs absolute cheat, not the Yankees of the Dodgers, or you’ll still need absolute cheap I’ve seen the upper deck, I’ve seen the fans, I’ve seen the mass and dispute. I know the Washington people aren’t coming back. I mean, unless they really grow the brand here with baseball they are what they are they have the fans they have who spend the money they spend, I don’t know how that gets the franchise into a better place three, four years. And now once they start buying watchmen and Henderson at market value, then you know, they’re not going to have the pictures. And unless they grow it for more Grayson Rodriguez is the burns thing for me in October makes this much, much more crucial that they win the World Series. And that’s a they have to win the World Series this year, because I wouldn’t believe in them as much. If they don’t have the kind of number one starter they have up top like they do this year. It’s the reason I believe in them right now. Is Corbin burns. I really I mean that. That’s
Luke Jones 21:46
8fair. I mean, look, I’m not going to sit here and argue with you about that. I don’t think they’re going to resign. Corbin burns. Again, that’s another one of those unknowns until we see what ownership looks like in terms of spending and all that it’s complete unknown, but I know they won’t have the money. Now whether Mr. Rubenstein wants to be generous and up, they have the money, they’d have the money to do it if they want to. But it’s just a matter of them. What does that mean, you can’t do down the line in terms of keeping other players there. You can sign any player in baseball that you want to. It’s just okay. What does that mean the salary caps the same way you know, you can sign any team in the league can sign their franchise quarterback but then what does that mean for part parts A, B, and C have your roster and players 123 and four that you’re gonna have to sign at some point over the next two to three years. So there’s always there’s always the hidden costs, not even a hidden costs. It’s just the cost of it in terms of, you know, opportunity, you know, opportunity lost or gained depending on each move, but I’m not gonna sit here and say that they shouldn’t be trying to do everything they possibly can. That’s why it’s so frustrating. I did have to chuckle when you presented the example of if, you know, Soto or Aaron judge goes down for the Yankees and the Orioles are healthy. Well, the Orioles. They’re not healthy. That’s why we’re talking about the pitching right now because they’ve had three guys undergoing season ending elbow surgeries, who would two of them definitely be in the rotation and Bradish means and Tyler Wells is going to fit in somewhere.
Nestor J. Aparicio 23:14
And if they don’t win the World Series, we’ll look back and say what what would have happened if we didn’t have Bradish and meet you like and I am concerned right now about them in a short series. I really am. I am concerned about a lot of different things the way they played last year the youth part of it the bullpen part of it right now that if they had to go out and navigate October right now, if October started right now, and they are the horsey whatever they are whoever they have to play, you know, but hey, by Monday, they can be in first place, right? I mean, the right so. But if they had to play right now and play three, four series and the next month, constructed as their construct and they’re healthy offensively. I mean, that’s the that’s the crazy thing. I go back to Marcus, you know, being injured and how that kind of screwed things up. It only takes one. I mean, if they have to play in October without Westberg without rush without any of these guys, there’ll be a diminished team and we’re talking about them playing the rest of the year now without their former Cy Young candidate from last year. And another guy that they thought was going to come back from Tommy John you know, I mean, you always say well, you never know you never know well there he goes. You’re never know because when he went under two years ago, they thought oh man All Star break at 24 He’ll be back might not be one but he might be a three we might have Corbin burns by then and Rodriguez might be up and we might not need him to be the dude. But man, this thing really smells different. Burns Rodriguez Bradish means the real John means this thing smells like that smells like smells Glavine Avery Maddox kind of formidable, really formidable in October. I don’t know that this feels formidable to me right now. The US but not not pitch,
Luke Jones 25:01
you still have Corbin burns. I still think before it’s all said and done. Okay? Would you rather Grayson Rodriguez be your three in October than your two. He’s still in that category to me, I still feel he’s going to be in that category, I should say.
Nestor J. Aparicio 25:17
But if I choose not Kyle Gibson, a two’s not George shore a to is somebody that was competing for the Saigon last year, you know what I mean? Like I, I don’t know where that’s coming from without raping the system. And then, without a real belief, and whether this is John Angelo’s and Mama Angelo’s owning 60% of the stock, or whether this is Mr. Rubinstein saying, I’m the I’m the primary primary primary, and it’s my money and my future and all that. I I’m really interested in the poker cards for this this year. And whether last year I felt like we had plenty of time. Hmm, I don’t know, you know, I mean, I it doesn’t feel that way when you start losing pitchers for real that aren’t coming back. And when you start looking at the system and holiday spend time down, you know, the last couple of weeks and saying where’s the team gonna be in September and it needs to look like a different team than what we envisioned in April, because it’s not going to be that team. And as good as they were in April in May, as bad as they’ve been this week in various ways. And I’m not judging them on five losses. I’m just saying this is a real wake up call for their deficiencies as comprised right now not a month ago when they had more pitching and they had they’re having press conferences about a six man rotation and and four of them what you’d be happy to start in game two of the of the World Series if you had to that’s seeing or even see it seeing the the bottom of this thing right now. Where are you on Povich by the way? You’re not even to discuss him on Tuesday so much. Where are you? Having seen him a couple of times? interested?
8Luke Jones 26:53
Not ready to call him an answer, but put it this way. I have more hope on him then Albert Suarez, who I still think is best suited for a relief role. He’s got more upside than Corbin look cool. corofin Until the last couple times out. Corbin was one of the unsung heroes of this roster. So I hear everything you’re saying and don’t get me wrong. I’ve been talking about them needing more bullpen arms since spring training. Right. So
Nestor J. Aparicio 27:21
that now starters.
Luke Jones 27:25
But the bullpen is still a major issue. I do want to remind you though, the Texas Rangers did not have this amazing starting rotation on paper. They were where the Orioles were a year ago, right around this time last year is when Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery. You know, they’re Corbin burns. You know, they’re Corbin Burns, who was signed long term. You know, they obviously ivaldi and Jordan Montgomery were so big for them. But who was their number three starter until Scherzer. Came back later in October. Point is so much of what we’re talking about here. And yes, they need more pitching. And I agree with that. And they’re going to add more pitching, who’s going to be we’re going to see, you know, everyone who’s going to be available, there are going to be question marks about even someone like Garrett Cruz crochet who is the big name being talked about because of how amazing and impressive he’s been for the White Sox. And he’s young. The peripherals look amazing. All of that. Go look at how many innings he threw last year, how many innings he has already thrown this year. And tell me how you’re going to navigate that to try to keep a young pitcher fresh to have bullets for October. Now don’t get me wrong. I think if you could acquire a pitcher of that ilk for the next few years, my goodness, great. But he’s already thrown so many innings and you still have a season to go. And you know, I guess the point I’m making here is this isn’t about July, August and September. Yes, you need to navigate August, July and September. But this team is going to be in the playoffs. They’re not going to completely fall apart. I’m not going to sit here and and let me be clear. I’m not suggesting that that’s what you were implying whatsoever. But I’m not going to sit here and judge them off the last week, compared to a team that was 24 games over 500 Less than a week ago over their first 74 games. The body of work still suggests that they’re going to be fine now fine, doesn’t equate to optimizing, you know, having the optimal chance to win the World Series. But they still have so much talent. They still have so much going for them. They have so many resources in their farm system that they could trade
Nestor J. Aparicio 29:41
8130 strikeouts in 90 innings Wow.
Luke Jones 29:43
That’s what I’m saying. He’s been amazing but go look at how many innings that he tossed last year and then you say okay, how do you keep him fresh? How do you not run them into the ground workload wise and keep him healthy for We’re having that in October. And look, I know that innings restrictions and limits and pitch count limits and all the things that all these teams do is still more guesswork than anything definitive. But at the same time, I think if you look at a pitchers workload, we talked about this a lot last year, Nestor look at what has happened since then. We talked about this, that Kyle Bradish through a career high, Grayson Rodriguez through a career high, Dean Kramer through a career high, Tyler
Nestor J. Aparicio 30:27
wells got shut down and then got hurt, right. Yeah. And look, I’m not at all impedance got shut down and got hurt. Radish got shut down and got hurt. So they all got shut down. They all had timeouts they all had, and they’re all getting cut off. Right?
Luke Jones 30:42
Well, John means a little bit different there because it had nothing to do with workload. He, he came back from Tommy John and, and I would assume it just, it didn’t take right. I mean, he made four starts in September last year and four starts this year. I mean, that’s not overuse or anything like that. He just wasn’t healthy. But
8Nestor J. Aparicio 31:00
the point amazing thing, we talked about this as my knee hurts as a 55 year old guy from being caught on 20 years ago, that we’re like, oh, Tommy, John, he comes back from it. He made four starts and I’m like, Yeah, heartless to throw the ball 92 miles an hour. And to get back to that level and say that it didn’t take or it didn’t. I mean, just the fact that they ever get back on the hill and can do it once ever again. Because there’s things with my knee that, you know, just trying to go out hit a tennis ball, when you get older. It’s amazing that these guys can come back and recover to the point where they can do this at that level. And then it falls apart again. And that’s that’s the, the really sad part for the for the kids for the people that are doing this. But they put Humpty Dumpty back together again. And they promised this, maybe we’ll try it had that guy did it, that guy did it, that guy did it. And for means I think that you and I over the last few years have been optimistic that he will come back. I’m getting less optimistic on this Tommy John thing, as far as all Batista will be here next October, will he really throw in 102? Really? We’ll see. I
Luke Jones 32:09
mean, let’s also be clear, and I’ve talked about this a lot when people were so eager to cut on Kyle Bradish. Back in February and March, the return rate for Tommy John is very good, let relative to where it was 20 or 30 years ago, certainly where it was when the original Tommy John had the surgery. But it’s not 100%. So that’s where you do look at this offseason. And this is where again, I don’t know how much of this is Mike Elias and how much of this was just the state of where ownership was. And you know, John Angelos hadn’t spent any money other than the token, one one year contract for a starting pitcher, the last couple offseason that and I guess this year, it was Craig Kimbrel. Because, you know, David Rubin’s he was signed before David Rubenstein came into the picture. So that, but that’s where you look at it and say, you know, and we and we even talked about it, they could have used another starting pitcher even without knowing what was going to happen here. It’s not as though they couldn’t have used that because there were some questions. Not Not that anyone knew about Bradish until January. But it’s like I just said, and I remember vividly saying this to you. When we were talking we and we had this conversation on a regular basis last summer, about the starting rotation and the number of pitchers that had exceeded career highs. And I said to you and I know this not because of my own experience, but just listening to other really smart people, like will Carroll who’ve talked about sports injuries for years, they’ve often said, the key for a pitcher when you’re talking about his workload exceeding a career high, or setting a new career high is the following spring. And unfortunately, that’s when it showed up with Kyle radish. Tyler Wells was April, John means, you know, was slow played throughout the offseason because of how he felt early October last year. Now four starts and suddenly it’s bothering him. So that’s
Nestor J. Aparicio 33:59
my point is once you get back to the third, second third star, third star fourth star, you’re like, Okay, he’s gonna be okay. And he’s not and it’s not always that way. Right? Yeah. And I think that that’s, you know, like, that’s the hardest part for the means thing is that he did make it back. He was effective. He was doing it at the highest level. And then he’s not anymore. And I don’t know, man, that’s like trying to hug a ghost. You know what I mean? You’re trying to capture something you can’t capture. And I don’t know enough about the arm. I just know, I watch these guys do this and think it’s kind of ungodly that they go out there. And it’s amazing that Jim Palmer could do it for 20 years at the lead still be 75 and make fun of these young guys that can’t get the 212 innings. But it’s a max effort issue. Right when I got Dave Johnson, David I and I talked about this last week and he’s been our constant companion the last couple of days since Jim Palmer got COVID last week. You know, Dave, I ran into him at Jamie Costello’s party and we were just talking and it was the weekend. that everything went down with Bradish and all those guys. And he was just talking about like, yeah, you know, I topped out at 89 miles an hour, my fastball, but I didn’t throw 89 every pitcher or to blow my arm out, even at 89 He He can’t fathom this max effort max effort max effort max effort that everybody’s throwing every pitch as hard as they can. That really is the difference not just in Jim Palmer’s era, but in Dave Johnson’s era, and how they view it, and how they’re burning these guys out and burning them to the ground and everybody’s getting cut on when it wasn’t this way in the 70s and 80s. I mean, some guys got wrecked, but I got baseball cards with Whitey Ford and Don Drysdale and Bob getting you know, all of these people that that did things that we they wouldn’t allow pitchers to do now. And those guys last 40 years satchel page are still striking guys and 50. I like they’re clearly doing something wrong with this eye, with all the science they have you think they’d be getting better at this. And the better is to your point, shut them down, slowing down, pitch, count, pitch count all of these things. And none of its successful, really across the grain of the last 60 years of baseball. It’s worse than it’s ever been. And they’re pitching less than they’ve ever pitched and making more than they’ve ever made and putting more tax not just on a roster with 13 pitchers and all that the state of pitching is crazy in baseball. And it’s crazy. We’re here because we’ve got three guys hurt the last month, and we’ve lost five in a row. So we’re talking about it now. But it’s probably good. We’re talking about because they won three of the last five, we wouldn’t be talking about the pitching. And maybe they wouldn’t think they need more. But the headline is Orioles need pitching that really is the headline.
Luke Jones 36:43
8I mean, I I don’t think that this has changed Mike Elias his view on I think he knew he needed pitching. You know, I think this is again, a lot of this has to do with everyone’s priors, you know, even when their pitching statistics were excellent, even as of as of a week ago, and I’ve been saying that over and over now. And I’m not gonna change my tune to that, because I’m gonna look at data and stats, you know, but they needed knew they needed pitching it. Something interesting. You said, you said pitching is worse than it’s ever been from a durability and longevity standpoint. Yes, performance wise, guys are throwing harder with more breakage and more swing and miss than ever. So it’s better.
Nestor J. Aparicio 37:23
Doctors real busy too. Sure, sure.
Luke Jones 37:26
I mean, the thing we need to understand and remember. And you know, we there are examples people will remember over the years in Baltimore, even pitchers have always gotten hurt 80 years ago, when a pitcher got hurt, you know, had a UCL injury even though they wouldn’t have called it that back then, because they didn’t have the imaging and the sophisticated test to be able to determine all that. They just went away. I mean, a pitcher would be in the league a few years and then suddenly they disappear. Or maybe they show up in some low level minor leagues four years later, trying to make a complaint. If you
Nestor J. Aparicio 38:01
go back and you’re looking at all star game boxes, you’ll see a bunch of pitchers names that got there one time, right. What happened to that guy, you know, and in some cases to Lamar heights, you know, the author of The Denny McLean’s, the author of yield issues, alcoholism being primary over baseball over the last 60 years if you read the Steve Dahl kowski started any booze and baseball and all of that eight pitchers up but I I would really again if I knew these people and I had a press pass like you do, I would ask Mike Elias um feel like he could have managed this differently and I don’t think they could have right you think there’s anything different you could have done what Batista did not get him hurt you think is anything different? We could have done with Brad as your means even on the other end of this or even Wells who you were a little nervous about last June July you pulled them up when you’re in the middle of a pennant race and so um I don’t think that I think all they’re scientists and doctors and trainers I saw Brian evil out there attending the Metalia the other night whom I love love Brian evil tell him I said hello if you see him by the way I thought of him and I thought there’s one good dude Brian evil. I don’t think they would manage it any differently. I think they’re, they’re managing it by the by the book, the modern book and the modern books put four guys under. I don’t know dude, I’m an Oracle fan of my life. I don’t remember. Four pitchers get knifed in six months around here. And I know when Harbaugh was getting players hurt out there the last couple years. The Goofy trainer that came down in Philadelphia that gave him all COVID and shut the building down and and all the players ripping that guy in the aftermath after injuries happen. The Oriole side of this I’m not blaming I’m saying this is baseball that that’s just the way it goes. You got four guys down. Every team has four guys down. Well maybe y’all are doing something wrong. I you know, like I keep thinking about it that way that we’re sitting here four weeks ago with six man rotation And today we’re like, oh my god, we don’t have pitching. Yeah, I it’s just certainly the game has changed. That’s all I’m gonna say the game has changed in that way. And we now need pitching in a way that they shouldn’t have needed this much pitching they had pitching a couple of weeks ago. Well,
8Luke Jones 40:17
and that’s where I looked at this and looked at, I just said 10 minutes ago that yeah, they probably could have stood to, you know, would have been to their benefit to add another starter, you know, it didn’t have to be another number one or number two, like Corbin Burns, who they did acquire but someone else to whether it was resigning Kyle Gibson, or someone of that ilk, let’s let’s bring him up. And and I mean, he’s just an example of or more than the individual himself. Yeah. So, but I mean, what you just said, look, a big as much as everyone here in Baltimore is pumping puffing out their chest because the Orioles won 101 games and overtook the rays go look at why the rays couldn’t keep up the pace that they had over the first three months. Last year. They lost McClanahan they lost. I mean, you mentioned four guys in the last six months. Paper. I mean, it’s look, I mean, but the but the rays have been through it. I mean, there been other teams that have been through it, where you just get hammered with pitching injury. So in one year, I mean, we talked about this with the with the Ravens do that as a 21. And, you know, they had all the ACLS and Achilles injuries. I mean, it’s our teams collectively doing something wrong. Well, through the lens of the human arm, and the ulnar collateral ligament, and, you know, just the elbow and the shoulder in general, are not meant to throw baseballs 100 miles per hour, and really weren’t meant to throw them 95 miles per hour. But because of the high injury rate, just over the history of the game, again, injuries have always been there. But when everyone else is doing that, when it’s such an arms race, when individuals and so what we think about this with the teams, these guys, these pitchers, as individuals had been doing this for years. And we’ve seen this with Dr. Klein and all the different specialized training facilities. You know, it very much is an individualized thing. It’s not as though these teams have mandated pitchers to throw as hard as they can. It’s a collective culture. It’s a systemic issue that goes all the way down to the youth level. I mean, we’ve talked about it in the past. Well, I
Nestor J. Aparicio 42:30
mean, the old Ray Miller work fast change speeds throw strikes, right? Like, I mean, that still applies, but but and you still more deception in pitching back then than just blowing you away. Curt Schilling could blow your way. Randy Jones, some of those guys could do that. But it was and Palmer click Joe, you know, but Palmer, Palmer worked on deception. Palmer worked on the edges, Palmer worked on speeds. This is 9896 98 190 and you like, and that’s when talking to the guys like Dave Johnson about it, who had a kid that pitched you know, and studied pitching, and it’s all he’s ever done all his whole life. This is a new phenomenon. This, everybody’s gonna throw the ball as hard as they can every single time they have the ball, because that wasn’t the way they were trained for 100 years in baseball.
Luke Jones 43:16
And it’s really I’m not even sure how much of it is the fastball velocity itself? I think it’s also they’re throwing breaking balls harder than ever to I think those are probably where you’re finding the most of the biggest problems. I mean, the Texas Texas Rangers team doctor, what is it? Kevin Meister? I think I think it seems Kevin Meister it’s Meister he’s talked about this where he really wonders, you know, the the sweepers kind of become the new phenomenon, right, that slider that has a little more left or right or right to left rather than downward break. He’s really wondered if that’s the pitch, that’s kind of been the silver bullet that’s caused this uptick in. And look, this has been on the rise for years. This is why I kind of laugh when I see the that NFL MLB you know, the players union, just point to the pitch clock now. I think the pitch clock is absolutely a variable. But it’s one of many variables that that have been kind of mounting over the last 10 to 15 years, but I really do think it’s not just throwing fast balls harder. I think it’s really the spin. And you know, one thing that came to came to the spotlight recently, Edwin Diaz the closer for the Mets the other night, foreign substance 10 game suspension, that is absolutely a variable and when I say foreign substance, I’m not talking about guys that were necessarily doctoring the ball in the way that Gaylord Perry made a Hall of Fame career out of doing it and everyone just kind of smiled and winked and did that whole song and dance, but with these guys with the spin they put on the ball, and Tyler glass now famously talked about this a few years ago when he hurt his elbow. Right after that. and came into effect basically, that to get the spin and the same effect on the ball, you had to grip the ball that much harder and tense up that much harder. And when you’re going through that violent motion of throwing the ball, you know, those substances, whether it was rosin, sunscreen, all kinds of different stuff, it wasn’t necessarily that you are getting this crazy, unnatural. It’s funny to say on natural, because all of this is a natural, natural movement, but you can’t grip the ball to try to try to still get that same spin, but you’re gripping it so much harder. And you’re that much more tense that, you know, think about when your body really tenses up, one of the things they talk about in a car accident, you know, people that tend to not become quite as injured or, you know, fatal situation, they say their bodies more relaxed. Whereas if you really tense up to a crazy degree, that tends to be when more injuries occur. Now, easier said than done, if you’ve ever heaven forbid, if you’re ever in that moment, but it’s kind of the same principle here that when they started policing that stuff, and I’m not talking about spider tack, right, which what Trevor Bauer I guess, was using that, and, and that’s where you kind of looked at and said, Okay, that’s over the line. You know, we’re not talking about a little bit of sunscreen here, or, you know, rosin, whatever. That that was to the extreme. We’re talking about the guys, which Danny coulomb recently did a podcast. He estimated before they made that change that probably 80% of pitchers in baseball, were using something just to have a better grip on the ball. And look, that’s yes, that that impacts performance. But that’s also a safety thing, too. You want pitchers to be able to command the ball the way they they can best that they can command it, so they’re not hitting guys in the head either. So that’s been a variable. So there’s so many different moving parts of this. And I’ve used the example with you bringing up NASCAR years ago after the tragic death of Dale Earnhardt and restrictor plates on engines and they don’t go as fast as they can. There’s no restrictor plate for these arms in terms of max effort and trying to do this, because if they don’t do it, if you’re that pitcher, like you’re Kyle Bradish, today getting cut on and you know, having Tommy John surgery, but five years ago, you were a prospect in the angel system, or you were being drafted by the angels, and you were trying to get there. If you didn’t do all these things, someone else is going to do it. Right. So steroids. Yeah, that was its argument. And look, I mean, that was, you know, steroids was a different thing from an ethical standpoint, because you’re talking about substances that were illegal. This was just tactics in terms of how pitchers are throwing, and I’m not even talking just about the, you know, the substances on the ball or on their fingers to just have a grip, but that was part of it. So, boy, you and I’ve sat here and talked about this for 45 minutes. No one has an answer. There’s the next Tommy John surgery, or the next training tactic or the next piece of technology that can be the red flag that can prevent this and say, Hey, this is this is where you need to be if you if you redline this so to speak, this is when you’re going to have a problem. If someone can have some kind of breakthrough that can, it’s never going to eliminate, but can curtail, boy that there’s the $25 million dollar idea right there that someone in sports science or sports medicine or whatever it is, you know, internal brace is the kind of the new thing with Tommy John surgery that they think expedites the healing a little bit. So you know, but at the same time, guys are still missing seasons, still altering careers. pitchers are now undergoing Tommy John multiple times with higher frequency. It’s, it’s it’s not sustainable to this degree. And this is why we’re seeing more and more pictures and I guess, to bring it back full circle. This is why the Orioles are any team right now. You need to have as many pictures as you possibly can. Because some of them at the very least, and all of them probably are close to all of them over a long enough timeline are going to break. three
Nestor J. Aparicio 49:02
more months left before we even get to think about postseason baseball. Still got a month left before the trading deadline looks at the ballpark all week the Indians in town for another minute. The Rangers will be in all week and we’ve had a great conversation about pitching so if you hear this on Thursday, just you know, take it for what it’s worth. We’re having long form chats around her had a great week Maryland crab cakes or whatever the papists on Tuesday we’re back out on the road, giving away the Gold Rush sevens doublers at fade Lee’s on the 12th of July. It’s gonna be a great holiday week ran here next week. We got all sorts of great conversations for you. Rock Stars Greg hawks from the cars came on and Mark Brian from hooting the blowfish and then we’re going to see them Friday night up in Hershey as well. We will not be fate these on Friday but would encourage you to stop down before the Rangers get to town this weekend. And before Joan Jett comes in rocks and Crimson and Clover for me, Danna Merriweather, this weekend. He is Luke I am Nestor we are wn St. am 1570, Towson Baltimore and we never stop talking Baltimore positive
