After another strong seven-inning start in Seattle late on Tuesday night in another Orioles victory, Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the key role Tomoyuki Sugano has taken in the Birds’ rotation as so much disappointment has descended on this 2025 squad with the poor start and last-place standing.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the impact of Tomoyuki Sugano on the Orioles’ rotation, highlighting his consistent performance with 12 starts and only one game allowing more than three runs. Sugano’s ability to complete seven innings in four of his starts is notable, especially in a league where such performances are rare. The conversation also touched on the Orioles’ recent four-game winning streak, attributed to improved starting pitching. They noted the return of Colton Cowser to the lineup and the potential for trades involving players like Ryan O’Hearn to bolster the team’s future prospects.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles rotation, Tomoyuki Sugano, starting pitching, Colton Cowser, Adley Rutschman, Cal Raleigh, trade deadline, minor league prospects, injury impact, pitching performance, offensive struggles, playoff race, Mike Elias, baseball culture, Japanese baseball.
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
8
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T. Am 1570 task of Baltimore. We are Baltimore positive. We call ourselves the Oriole experts around here, bird heads. Lucas was up late on Tuesday evening to begin the West Coast parade in of all places, Sacramento. We’re gonna be I will be awake at 1005, on Friday night, Sacramento. I want to see what baseball in Sacramento looks like. My pal Tom Cousins, longtime Sacramento Bee sports editor and one time mentor to me in 1984 at the news American, we did a long form chat about Sacramento. But in the meantime, it’s Seattle and Maury Murray Brown from Forbes join me. He covers the mariners out on the West Coast. And Luke was covering the mariners late night. You know, the Sugano thing, of all the stuff we want to beat up, Elias about, you know, and Charlie Morton sort of rounding in the form here while the team’s in last place, I guess. But getting guys to the mound every five days and getting him six, seven innings and seven, I mean, that’s Jim Palmer. That’s complete game at this point, but getting a representative pitching effort, it’s so what was missing in April and May, right, like without that, that’s what put him in last place, is they needed more starts like they got from Sugano, and also some fortunate dating and Colton cows are back in the lineup, man. Well,
Luke Jones 01:21
that’s really, when you look at what this team has done over the last two weeks, it’s been their starting pitching. I mean, it’s not as though the offense has been an absolute juggernaut. I mean, they certainly had a good night to open this series in Seattle. And, you know, five runs is kind of the magic number that I’ve talked about, even going back to the off season, right? With this offense be, you know, being intended. You know, the intention was this offense to to carry them, and the pitching needed to just be just good enough, right? And that was the formula. Obviously, they missed the mark. I mean, that’s an understatement. When you’re in last place in early June and have had the start that the Orioles have had but winning Seven of Nine. You do look at the starting pitching, and it’s been guys pitching better, but in the case of Tomoyuki Sagano, it’s been the guy that we’ve come to expect. I mean, we’re talking about someone who’s made what, now 12 starts, and he’s allowed more than three runs once all year, he’s completed seven innings, which is not a benchmark that you see pitchers reach a whole lot anymore. I mean, still happens plenty, but not even as much as it did 10 years ago. He completed seven innings for the fourth time on Tuesday night. So I think it was, you know, you see what Sagano, that’s a
Nestor Aparicio 02:42
third of the starts he’s made seven. And, I mean, that’s like, how many other guys in baseball have done that?
Luke Jones 02:46
8I mean, it’s good, like, it’s so funny, because, and I’ve been as guilty of this as anyone. I’ve talked a lot about him not missing a whole lot of bats, and he doesn’t. I mean, he he had five strikeouts on Tuesday night. That’s one of the Higher totals that he’s had in his start this year. He doesn’t wow you in the sense that it’s ever dominant, right? When have we ever really used the term dominant to describe to Miyuki Sagano? But he gets results. He’s got that. Pics, pitch mix. He you know, the splitter kind of leads the way, but he throws six different pitches. He commands. You know, he doesn’t walk many people, I mean, had one walk through seven innings. Think he’s had one walk in each of his last three starts, and he just gives you a chance. He competes. You can tell, despite the fact that he’s a quote, rookie in the major leagues, you can tell he’s in his mid 30s and knows how to pitch. That’s something that’s universal. And the stuff, while it doesn’t wow you. It doesn’t overwhelm you. It’s good enough, right? I mean, it’s enough of a mix. It’s enough of being able he
Nestor Aparicio 03:47
knows where the ball’s going, right? You said locate like he knows where the ball’s going. That’s half the game, right? I mean, for pitchers, like if you can place it and and you you study and you know weaknesses and follow your catcher, and just in a general sense, and I think everything about these guys that come from another culture, dude, I have been in Tokyo Station with my wife, very confused. You know what I mean? I know what it looks like to be in another culture and say, Oh my God, I don’t recognize anything or anybody or any, just it’s very difficult. And if you haven’t been dropped down someplace where you don’t speak the language and can barely read the signs and you’re 35 it’s, you know, everything can be a challenge. Doing your laundry, you know, finding things, getting basic answers to things, maybe the Internet helps and translate helps, because it did when I was in Korea a couple of years ago, believe me, but it I tip my cap to anybody. And I used to see these hockey players come over from from Russia, from what, and learn the language like aveshkin comes off the boat, doesn’t speak word English. Lemieux didn’t speak a word of a. English. When he gave you ever heard Mary Lemieux speak, he didn’t speak a word of English. I’m telling you. I met him when he was 17 years old. Like, it’s unbelievable. And these guys come over and adjust, do their jobs, do it better than maybe we even expected a lot of money and all that. But there really is something about having done something the 10,000 hour rule. You know what I mean, if you’ve done it that long over there and been successful, and scouts look at your stuff, and they have all the science to say you’ve got a fastball, it’ll play. And all of the science went into michaelias, all of his science went into being like, all right, this is a $15 million pitcher for one year. This is just as good as getting a halfway washed up St Louis Cardinal to be better than Kyle Gibson. Yeah,
Luke Jones 05:45
that’s been an understatement. But yeah, I mean, and that’s, that’s the real shame of it is, if the Orioles hadn’t gotten off to this terrible start, and they weren’t in the position that they’re in right now, which is playing, needing to play so incredibly well, just to even get semi into the back, into the mix. We’d be talking about this in much different terms, and the rest of baseball be taking notice differently. I mean, you know, well, you say
Nestor Aparicio 06:08
no, they signed the number three starter who’s pitching like a number 2
8Luke Jones 06:12
million, $13 million well, spent, you know, on a one year deal. I mean, you couldn’t ask for much better than that. I mean, they might get
Nestor Aparicio 06:19
some serious back for him at the trading deadline,
Luke Jones 06:21
or they could look to, they could look to extend them. I mean, we’ll see what happens again. He’s 35 I do think it’s, it’s going to be interesting in the same way we talk about this with young pitchers, right? You go through the league, there’s now 12 starts of Major League Baseball that that teams can look at you. So you’ve got to stay on top of pitch sequencing and the way that you set up hitters and all of that, because all these teams have advanced scouts and they have analytics and modeling that will run all those different things and figure out tendencies if you have them. So So that’s always the challenge, and that’s the challenge for anyone, right? I mean, we talk about baseball being a great game of adjustments, but he’s just done such a nice job. And you go back to that sixth inning, he gives up back to back singles to Crawford and Polanco, and you’re thinking, okay, at that point, it’s three to one. There’s they’re two on and you have Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh coming up. Strikes out Rodriguez and then gets Cal Raleigh to ground into a double play. I mean, that’s the sixth inning. You know, you’re talking about facing the heart of the order at a point where, I mean, the game is very much up in the air. And, I mean, he did the job and then went out there and toss the seventh inning. So he’s just, I mean, he’s been throwback, such a good story. And everything you mentioned about coming from from another country, another culture, all the adjustments that go into that. And think about it. I’m sure he this wasn’t just him taking any job in the major leagues. It was also, hey, I’m going to Baltimore. The Orioles have been in the playoffs the last couple years, so I’ve got a chance to pitch in the majors, and I should be playing for a good club. How disastrous this season has started out, the fact that he hasn’t gone down with the rest of the ship, so to speak. Speaks to again, to his experience Japanese. He’s
Nestor Aparicio 08:06
8quiet in his mind. He’s 35 years old. He’s taken the ball. It’s a big challenge for him all the way around. Maybe one thing about the cultural thing is, you know, you don’t lose focus. Yeah, you know what I mean, if I went over to Japan, didn’t speak the language, and all I had to do was one thing, my thing, my job, and nobody’s, you know, I not communicating as much. You know, there is a level of focus. And also, he’s waiting his whole life to come over your pitching Yankee Stadium. You know, she saw each row play in that stadium. That stadiums like Fenway Park to him, I’m sure. Because, I mean, I know those games are beamed in over there, Dodger Stadium. Same thing. If he ever walks into Dodger Stadium, it’ll be like, Oh, my God, because that’s, I mean, it’s just a huge baseball culture in Japan. One thing I hope to take you over there, when the Orioles win the World Series, to do the tour, and go over and, oh, they don’t do that anymore, right? Yeah, but the Orioles did that by then. I think Richard justice and a couple of those guys, Christian, I don’t think went on that tour, but maybe. But like talking about Japanese baseball and like all of that, and seeing it come here, I just when I see him pitch, I think about missing out on watching Bobby V manage game seven when I was in Japan 20 years ago, I had a chance. I’ve never been to a Japanese baseball game that is on my bucket list, to eat noodles out of a box with bangers at a Japanese baseball game is on my very much on my list. So when guys come over here and have that kind of success, I mean, each row is my favorite player of this century. Yeah, I don’t even know who else would be club. I mean, I got my Tony Gwynn thing and my George Brett thing, but, like, I don’t even know who my favorite other player would be. And I’m not Japanese, and I love the way he played together. Loved everything about him. And if you’re a Japanese guy who’s 35 years old coming over and pitching in that ballpark, I’m telling you, there’s something else about it, I promise you
Luke Jones 09:53
no question. And also, I mean, you you have the backdrop of each row going to the Hall of Fame this year. I mean, I know they talked about this on the telecast. Ask. But the idea that when the Ichiro came to the mariners, I mean, keep in mind, he was number 51 Randy Johnson also number dude. Let’s
Nestor Aparicio 10:07
go right now. We’ll sell sushi on the streets of Cooperstown. We’re going to make a fortune.
Luke Jones 10:12
Let’s go. But, but I just, you know that they have the, they had the banner posted, how many days until he’s inducted? I mean, the story just came out that, you know, they’re also going to recognize Randy Johnson, you know, retire, you know, retiring both their numbers, right? In the same way that number eight for the Yankees, Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey, you know, right? So, but, but Randy Johnson said, No, well, we’re gonna do that next year. This is each row. This is Summer of Ichiro. I and I just thought that was cool, because they told the story about how Ichiro, when he arrived in Seattle, he got in touch, wrote a letter to Randy Johnson, asking him if it would be okay to wear his number that he wore for so many years in Seattle. So, you know, it’s cool. I mean, you hear that. And so someone like Sugano, who drops into that environment after following each row from afar, of course, in the way that any Japanese baseball player would have of his generation, had to be special. But
8Nestor Aparicio 11:04
yeah, that’s a backdrop to that start to me, and the four game winning streak, and if they’re going to get back into this, I think you’ll look at that sixth inning and say, You know that guy? You know, that’s a guy, if you have take the ball in game one of a playoff game, get that kid the ball, you know? I mean, that’s part of it. Yeah, right. Exactly. Give that guy to ball. You know, I want a grown up, right? But, but,
Luke Jones 11:25
yeah. I mean, and again, this kind of goes back to as we’re talking about this team playing better. I mean, they’ve won seven of nine, four game winning streak for the first time all year. I mean, they, they still have so much work to do to really put themselves in any kind of position where we’re talking about it in serious terms, but they’re playing better. They’re eight and eight under Tony mancillino Now the offense on Tuesday night. I mean, it wasn’t like they hit a ton of home runs or anything like that. I mean, Colton cows are got a hold of one. It was great to see him back in the lineup, seeing him in center field rather than Jorge Mateo is, let’s talk about that for
Nestor Aparicio 11:58
a minute. Him in the lineup. What does that mean? Platoon wise, righty, Lefty him, they’re just gonna let him play. He’s gonna strike out, whatever he’s gonna play his defense that he plays, but it does shifted bats around in a in a better way than what we’ve seen since he’s been out, just in a general sense of what we’ve gotten out of those outfield positions. Yeah.
Luke Jones 12:17
8I mean, the outfield has been so problematic. I mean, obviously, Mullins has had a good year. I mean, had a great April, and not so great May, and now he’s hurt so but, but the rest of that outfield, I mean, we’ve talked about it. I mean, O’Neill, before he got hurt, was not good. Heston kerstad hasn’t taken advantage of opportunities. I mean, we’ve seen Dylan Carlson a little bit. I mean, it kind of is what it what it is. I mean, Dylan Carlson, at best, was going to be a fourth or fifth outfielder, and he’s had to start games here recently. So, so in terms of what Colton cows are brings, I mean, you’re talking about the runner up for Al Rookie of the Year. I mean, is he a flawed player? Yes, but is he a guy that has a lot of value, if you look at the things he can do, absolutely, I mean, he can play a representative center field. You know, I not going to sit here and say that center fields necessarily his best spot. You know, I think it’s still left field, but he can play a legitimate center field and do a nice job there. And you saw, I mean, he even hit the ball hard a couple other times, didn’t get the result, and then hits the home run that I mentioned that sixth inning made it three to one at the time. So in terms of what he brings, it’s just, it’s another good player. I mean, we’ve talked about this a lot. Yes, there’s been a ton of underperformance. I mean, that’s the captain obvious statement. I’m not going to sit here and put all the Oriole struggles on injuries, but that doesn’t mean that injuries aren’t, haven’t been a significant part of it. So when you bring someone like cows are back in the mix. No, he’s not hitting lead off like he did the first four games of the season, because I think Jackson holiday has done a nice job in that spot. And it’s not as though cows are multi year established lead off hitter anyway. So you hit him. What? They hit him sixth on Tuesday night they played him in center field. I’m guessing you’re going to see him mostly in center field until Mullins is back, but it instantly makes your outfield better. It instantly makes your lineup deeper. You know, at least on paper, right? I mean, these guys have to perform, and it was nice to see them. I mean, they had 13 hits on Tuesday night. Only two of those were extra base hits. So lot of singles, a lot of opposite field approaches that we saw. I mean, Adley rutchman had three hits. I mean that that was good to see. I mean, every time you see Adley rutschman have a game like that, you’re hoping and praying and crossing your fingers and hoping maybe this is the start of him turning things around. I mean, we’ve been saying that a long time. I get it. I’ve been as concerned and critical about it as anyone, but I thought that on opening
Nestor Aparicio 14:41
day when it hurt my neck out in center field watching the balls fly, sure,
Luke Jones 14:45
sure. And especially with him being in the Pacific Northwest this week, you know, of course, him having started Oregon State. I mean, that’s a homecoming for him, yeah. And but on the other side, you have Cal Raleigh, who’s been the best catcher in baseball. And would be MVP of the American League, if not for Aaron judge. I suppose that’s still kind of in that conversation. He’s been that good so, but it’s just a matter of, we’ve said this about this team just have to play, start playing better baseball, and they have done that. Now is that going to continue to the degree that it needs to continue for a long time to to get back in it. You know, I still have my severe doubts about that, but they have pitched better, and that’s really led the way. I mean, I mentioned it about the White Sox series over the weekend. Go look at their run totals in those three games. If you just looked at the run scored, and I told you, those would be the totals two weeks ago, you wouldn’t have said they would have swept the White Sox. You would have said maybe they won two or three, maybe, maybe they lost two out of three. They pitched well, so they’re getting better pitcher. I mean, Sagano has been that all year. Charlie Morton has been better after a disastrous first six or seven weeks. Eflin has looked, you know, looked better his last time out after a rocky return with back to back starts where he got knocked around. Kramer’s been better. Cade Povich hasn’t been great, but he’s mixed in competitive starts. He’s he doesn’t have a nine era where you’re saying, Oh, they have to replace him. You know, we’ll see about Trevor Rogers. I mean, he had his big start in Boston, and now it’s like, hey, go to Norfolk and pitch like that for a month, and then we’ll see. Right? So the starting pitching not going to sit here and say that it’s good or great, or that it’s going to be good enough, or anything like that, but it has improved here of late. Can they continue that? That’s the big question. But in the meantime, they are starting to get healthier. Cows are back westburg could be back in Sacramento. It looks like Laureano and Tyler O’Neill are on the verge of going on rehab assignments. So those guys off to perform. And we’ve talked about it. It isn’t just the injuries you need guys to play to their level, and if they get more of that, then they will play better, regardless of whether that means that they’re miraculously back in the playoff race come August, or if it’s just a case of you at least have the arrow pointed in the right direction again as you get to the All Star break and and you’re playing better baseball. And you know, we’re going to see how it plays out. But the pitching, the pitching, has been driving the bus here of late. I mean, they scored five runs on Tuesday night, but we’ve been seeing even when they haven’t scored a ton of runs, as was the case in the White Sox series, their pitching has been good enough. So it is truly amazing. And I wrote this recently, and I mean, it’s a captain obvious statement, but we need to be reminded of it when the pitching has been as bad as it’s been in 2025 the game looks so much easier when you’re not in a position where you’re trailing six to one in the fourth inning or trailing five to one in the seventh inning. I mean, they were in a position where, you know, they did grab an early lead, they tacked on some runs late in the game, and they got good pitching. I mean, Sagano and, you know, even Baker, who pitched into a jam in the eighth inning, then he got out of it, and then they added a couple runs after that to make it easier for Batista in the ninth inning. But you give up one run against the team that the mariners, haven’t been a juggernaut, but they’ve been good, you know, they’ve been at the top of the division in the Al West. You know that that’s that says a little more, I suppose, than sweeping the Chicago White Sox. So, you know, we’ll see how the next couple days play out and see if they can get a series win. Well,
Nestor Aparicio 18:29
in Luke Jones is here, by the way, he is Baltimore, Luke, Luke at W, N, S, t.net, if you want to reach him, I the bullpen part of this, and you’re like you said something that when you’re losing six to one in the fourth inning, or whatever. You’re already into your bullpen. The one thing that helps your bullpen is a seven inch start from your starter, right? Like you get that going after a day of rest, after you flew to the West Coast, you got to play two baseball games at about 12 hours on Wednesday and Thursday, right? And then, then you got to go out Sacramento play in a minor league ballpark, the whole deal, right? And this is a good team in Seattle. This is a team that might be buying your player. Might be buying Sagano at the at the deadline, because they have, they have minor league pitching talent. I have Maury brown on from Forbes, who covers the mariners. He’s out in Portland, home of Adley rushman. So there’s like all of that going on out there in the Pacific Northwest, and the mariners are a team that you better hope they stay competitive and want your pitching or want a bat one Orion O’Hearn for their lineup at first base to go along with their sexy catcher. That you can steal a couple of pictures. Because when I talk to really smart baseball people, and they watch the last place team, you and I will talk about them maybe trying to get in four game winning streak. I’ll do all the I’ll do rainbows and sunshine, especially in June. I’m happy with rainbows and sunshine in June, but I I think we’re talking about a trading deadline, and I will continue to talk about ownership. Katie Griggs, stadium fans, what are you doing? And what they’re in last place. What are you doing for the fans now, other than keeping them up late and maybe seeing a good game on Tuesday night with Sugano, but what’s happening on the field when I’m going to talk to smart baseball people, I think, and they look at Mike Elias, and they look at him saving his own ass and keeping his job and whatever trust he has built or hasn’t built, with David Rubenstein that that’ll come out in the wash, and where Cal Ripken is in all of this, where all the people that were running around last year patting themselves on the back and make the bobble heads of themselves. When, when this washes out, I think on August 1, Mike Elias is going to have a draft class. On July 13, we’re going to have what, one or two all stars, and maybe they let holiday in the side door, and O’Hare will be there, or whatever, maybe. And August 1 is going to be deals. Who’s going to be on the team and off the team. No offense to you and me staying up late in Seattle this week or so, like it’s great they can win a little bit. I mean, there were 18 games under 500 I don’t see them being a playoff team. And if they get there, because they’re getting this kind of pitching every like, we’ll be here to document it every day. And then maybe things will be different on my mother’s birthday, July 26 but I don’t think it will be. And I think the real story here is, the better Sugano is, the better you can deal them, the more home runs, O’Hearn hits the you know, Mount Cass is worthless. Like, you know, there’s there’s things that you’re not going to get anything for. But this becomes Trader Vic at this point, and because that’s the only thing that’s going to build, they need to build who’s going to be in Sarasota next March at this point, and to your point, giving it bats to cowser to get mayo, to get all the figure out what you got on your deck. But I think as we as the weather gets better here, we’re going to be talking about who’s got value and who’s hitting the ball well, and who can we deal for some Phillies prospect? You know, it’s going to be a lot of that. Whoever these prospects are, we’re not going to know who they they’re going to be some pasaio from somebody’s, you know, a ball team in Peoria. But this is, and that’s, by the way, that’s Elias strength, right? Is, is knowing minor league talent and bringing in the bradishes and like all of that. So that would play to the strength of the organization. But when I start to talk to Mari Mari Brown, it wasn’t even as much about the Orioles in the mariners, as much as it was. Well, you know, the mariners have some deep depth and pitching, and we could use Ryan O’Hearn, you know, it’s starting to become that kind of a conversation,
8Luke Jones 22:25
yeah, and the the mariners are an interesting team, from the standpoint of, we all remember the rotation was their strength last year, and they had so many issues scoring runs. I you know, they they fire their manager, they brought in Edgar Martinez.
Nestor Aparicio 22:38
Well, the Edgar Martinez piece for Mari Brown was a very interesting thing. It’s been fascinating. You like, you’re talking about Randy Johnson and each row and all that’s going on out in Seattle. They brought Cal Ripken back to be the batting coach, like, literally. I mean, that’s what they did there,
Luke Jones 22:53
yeah, yeah. And it’s and their offense has been way better. I mean, it’s not this unbelievable juggernaut top to bottom, but, I mean, it helps when Cal Raleigh is playing at an MVP level. I mean, he’s been phenomenal for them. It reminds you of what Adley rutschman is supposed to be, and had been, maybe not to that degree, but had been an all star catcher for two years. I mean, Cal Raleigh has been phenomenal for them, but their offense has been what’s they’ve been at a top 10 caliber offense, whereas their pitching has been little below average. Now, great example on Tuesday night George Kirby, who, I mean, he’s, he’s, he was hurt. He hasn’t looked very good coming back. You know, it’s only been a few starts, but he struggled. But, yeah, I mean, the mariners are a team that certainly is going to be, at this point, looking like a team that’s going to buy. I mean, I mean that that Al West is interesting in the sense that, you know, you don’t have the Astros looking like juggernauts, but they’re still there, and they’ve played better of late, and they actually moved ahead of Seattle based on Tuesday night’s results, but Seattle’s right there. I mean, the Rangers. I mean, I think a lot of people thought they’d spring back to where they were two years ago, but that hasn’t happened at this point. And then you have the angels and the A’s, which, you know, the A’s had been playing okay for a while, and they’ve been woeful here over the last couple of weeks. So, so you know, if you’re Seattle, you’re looking at this thing and saying, Okay, we’re not going to be a number one seed. I mean, the Yankees and the Tigers are, you know, especially the Tigers can be duking, duking it out for home field in the Al, but got a heck of a chance here to be a playoff team. So, yeah, team like the Orioles, I mean, and I’m with you, right? I mean, it’s, it’s fun to talk about the Orioles, at least playing better,
Nestor Aparicio 24:41
8but realistically speaking, we know where the math is. At this point in time, you just you can’t bury yourself to the degree that the Orioles did, and expect that you’re going to over correct. Then you know, on the flip side, play that much more over your heads of what your true talent level might. Be right. I mean, I think people that were optimistic about this club, even with their pitching concerns, kind of thought they’d be, you know, 89 wins, 90 wins. You know, maybe, maybe things went incredibly well, a couple more wins than that. You know, even playing at that pace the rest of the year, it’s not going to get them. I mean, they need to play like a juggernaut the rest of the year. So also, for all the kids out there that the the wacky 100 win year, two years ago, there were some weird math involved in one run victories and come from behind, and they party act. I mean, they they did stuff that they won 10 games that were in the balance, that if Batista wasn’t there to save their ass. They would, if he had blown four more of those, they would have been not what they were or perceived to have been. They weren’t. They weren’t blowing teams out and winning, like the 96 Yankees. You know what? I mean, like, it wasn’t like that.
Luke Jones 25:53
Yeah. I mean, they take nothing away. I mean, they won 101 games. But if you looked at and I’ve thrown this out to you based on run differential, their Pythagorean win loss was 94 a 94 win team, right? I mean that, you know,
Nestor Aparicio 26:08
Saber matricio seven wins was the number, okay, they would kind of say that that was maybe their
Luke Jones 26:13
true talent level, which, hey, that’s still, still a great year, like so. But for them to to be in a position where we’re having a different conversation about the trade deadline. I mean, they have to go nuts over these next what 4950 games between now and the trade deadline. So, I mean, if they do it, then, to your point, we’ll have a heck of a lot of fun talking about the, you know, the previous night’s game and and having a different tone to our conversations, but
8Nestor Aparicio 26:39
when they’ve won 12 of 15, and Rodriguez is back in the in the rotation before the all star game. And, you know, like now they’re three under 507 back way different, four and a half back out of the wild card, and we’re getting up on the All Star break. But that’s five weeks of that, you know, if, if they’re, I don’t know, 18 and nine this month. You know what I mean, in this calendar month, if they have that kind of a month, okay, I’ll, I’ll start to hear it. I’ll start to hear it a little bit at the end of the month that they’re not sellers. But right now, it’s, what pieces do they have to sell? How crafty can they be? Mike Elias is still running the team, so he’s in charge. This is what he’s supposed to be good at, Trevor Rogers aside, Jack Flaherty aside and all that, but dealing off the top of the deck to get farm hands. And that feels like, you know, that’s a strength for him. That’s what he’ll be doing when he gets fired here, working for the next organization. Yeah.
Luke Jones 27:39
I mean, it’s and we’re going to see how it plays out. I mean, I do think there’s more nuance than talking about, you know, their trade deadline three years ago or four years ago, but because you do have a team that you’re envisioning competing next year, so I don’t think you’re just giving guys away. You’re not giving guys away for, you know, lottery tickets. You’re, you’re hoping, if you’re, you’re trading, that you’re going to get something that you think has some real value and can help your club. I think there’s also the the nuance of anyone that you would be interested in resigning. There’s the qualifying offer, and what that means, you know, if you offer, you know you make a qualifying offer, and the individual rejects it, then you get a draft pick. So you kind of look in terms of, okay, if you go down that road, what’s the value of that draft pick compared to the value of minor league prospects A and B that you’re going to get for Ryan o’hern. And look, Ryan o’hern is not going to get you at you’re not going to get a top 20 prospect in baseball, or anything crazy, right? I mean, but you might get a bullpen piece for next year, or some, right? I mean, something that could, you know someone that might be a guy that you profile as a number four starter for you in 2026, and 2027 right? So, so there’s, there’s nuance to this. I don’t think this is just a full blown burn it to the ground. I mean, they’re not going into a full blown rebuilding phase again. I certainly hope not. I mean, if they’re going to do that, then, yeah, you fire everybody, right and and you go back to where you were in 2018 I you know, I wouldn’t do that with this young core, but you need to see enough signs of things moving in the right direction. And that’s where you kind of look at it through the lens of where they were in 2022 where they played way better. And there was a lot of hurt feelings, and a lot of people that were ticked off that they traded Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez. But you know what? Those were the right decisions. Go back and look Trey Mancini. I mean, he hasn’t been anything close to what he was in Baltimore. And I say that with no disrespect to Trey, and you know, he’s one of my favorite people I’ve covered in the game, but the last time that he was an above average major league player was with the Orioles Jorge Lopez, who they traded. And I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t love the return at the time, but. Yeah, look at what they got. I mean, yen, your Cano alone, recent struggles aside, made that deal worth it. But you also throw in Cade Povich, who still maybe, maybe could be something, right? I’m not saying he’s going to be, but he’s at least interesting. So, I mean, and Jorge Lopez just think he was just DF aid from a third different team since that trade three years ago. So, but we
Nestor Aparicio 30:24
also beat up uh Elias about not drafting pitchers when he’s traded for pitchers and groomed them. We got to give him a credit
Luke Jones 30:30
8for that. Well, sure and well, and you, you said it. I mean as much as we beat up the Charlie Morton signing, he did sign Sagano, right? And, and, and this isn’t me giving Elias a pass, right? I I was there with everyone else, underwhelmed with the off season, but at the same time, I’m going to credit what he what he did well, or what he’s done well, right? It hasn’t been all bad. You know, the last few years, even speaking as someone who hasn’t loved necessarily, what Elias has done when the proverbial switch was flipped and suddenly you’re talking about a team that’s contending. So you know, the Sagano move has worked out great. Morton has not worked out well. The last three weeks have offered a glimpse, I’m sure, of what Mike Elias thought he was going to be. We’ll see what he is the rest of the year. I mean, if Charlie Morton pitches his butt off for the next six weeks, is there a scenario where you could trade him, pay off a little bit of the salary that you’re giving to another team and and you get a couple lottery ticket prospects, right? I mean, you know that that’s certainly a scenario that, well, isn’t necessarily likely. It’s possible. So you know you’re just gonna have to see how this plays out. But in the meantime, they are playing better. It’s refreshing to see them playing better. They’ve got a long way to go, and they’ve got a you know, Seven of Nine is one thing. Win 14 of 18. Then we’re starting to talk about a team that’s slowly but surely creeping its way back towards 500 right? I mean, you just have to keep doing it. And it sounds like you’re moving the goal post, but it’s just reality. When you were 18 games under 500 at your low watermark,
Nestor Aparicio 32:05
win some games, or otherwise, I’m talking about you guys as an Erector. You know that we’re going to be selling off pieces here, that that is the only thing as a fan I’m interested in is, when are you going to win again next? And who, to quote, Buck Showalter, who are going to be the pile divers? Yeah, yeah. Colton cowser goes out and hits 311 the rest of the year. And August 1 comes, and you can deal him for the next Garrett crochet, or the next pitcher or the next you get an opening day starter next year out of it, because you get an effling kind of guy with money and deals. Hey, man, you know they’re just, they’re just pieces at this point,
Luke Jones 32:43
really. And I mean, I certainly don’t expect him to be someone that’s in that category. But for these young guys, hey, Heston kerstad, you might be, you might be sent down here in the coming days, but hey, you had a good game on Tuesday night. That was good to see. Kobe mayo, we don’t know how long Ryan mountcastle is going to be on the IL it’s go time. You’ve got to start figuring this out. I get it. You’ve had these stop start opportunities where you haven’t necessarily played a whole lot, but at some point it’s the, it’s the old adage that buck Showalter used to say, Yeah, young guys will tell me, you know, I’ll play better if I get to play more. And what would Buck say? Well, I’d play you more if you played better, right? I mean, it’s that, that conundrum there where you’re just like, hey, we want to play you, but you’ve got to show some signs that that it’s moving in the right direction, because we’re trying to win games here. I mean, this team, at this point here in early June, regardless of how we feel about them, they’re still of the mindset that they’re going to try to get back in this thing. I mean, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be buyers and they’re going to start trading for for rentals that are going to help them in 2025 but until Mike Elias sells off some of these guys, yeah, they’re going to try to win. And you know, at the very least, you want to see the young core start playing better. That’s why it’s great to see cows are back. I mean, Westberg is going to be back this weekend, most likely so you you have a more representative lineup, you hope to score some more runs. We’ve talked about the pitching. Is the pitching going to continue to be play perform at this level that it has over the last 10 days? I don’t know. I mean, that’s it’s been really, really good the last week and a half. But can it stabilize and be a little more consistent, right? Can you not be last in the majors or last in the Al? Can you? Can you get back to where I don’t know your 23rd you know? I mean, we’re not talking about a high bar here at this point when it’s been this bad. So, but you can’t think in those terms. You have to compartmentalize. You think about the next day, the next night, you know, I mean, you see what Cade povid does in the second game, and then you have effluent going in the matinee on Thursday, trying to, you know, at the very least, winning a series, or having a chance to sweep, you know, depending on how Wednesday night goes. So, you know, it’s, you know, this team at we’ve talked. About it, they dug such an immense hole to try to climb out of. And I’m not sitting here saying with any level of meaningful confidence that they’re going to be able to do it, because I don’t believe that they’re going to be able to do that, but I certainly think they can play better. I mean, can’t play much worse than they did through the first two months. So let’s Well,
Nestor Aparicio 35:19
you had better players, you play better, right? Yeah, yeah.
8Luke Jones 35:21
I mean, and that’s why, that’s why I keep saying, like, I don’t mean this to sound like the injuries are an excuse. They’re not, because they’ve had plenty of guys underperform on top of that, but it doesn’t mean the injuries haven’t made an impact here. I mean, it’d be crazy to completely dismiss it, as I say to you all the time when we’re talking about the Ravens. When you get to a certain level with with the injuries, next man UPS nothing more than a t shirt slogan, I mean, you truly get to a point where there’s a threshold where you just say, No, you’re you’re not going to be very good when Jorge Mateo is having to play center field because Mullins cows are and Laureano, who are all guys that can play center field or out of the picture and on the IL then, yeah, you’re probably, at that point, you’re sunk. So, you know, we’re going to see how it plays out. And it was good to see cows are back. It was good to see them have the night at the plate that they did. And certainly what Sugano did, which he’s been doing all year. I mean, he’s, as I said, he doesn’t wow you in the in the way that, oh my gosh, he blows hitters away. But Miguel Gonzalez kind of Wow. Just navigate. You know, he’s just professional, like, it’s such a professional showing that you get from him to start in and start out, and it’s just, it’s been fun to watch, because you do remind yourself that I get it. He’s 35 he’s not a rookie in the way that we think about a traditional rookie of the year candidate, but he he is also pitching at the highest level in the world for the first time in his career. And that’s not a knock on Japanese baseball. It’s a high level, but it’s not the major leagues. He’s showing that what he does plays, and I think that’s that that’s been really fun to watch, even if this team overall hasn’t been a very enjoyable product, to say the least. We’re
Nestor Aparicio 37:03
trying to make it enjoyable. He is Luke Jones. I am Nestor. We’re going to be together all week. I’m going to be a green mount station on Thursday afternoon. I kind of did it in advance of the Orioles afternoon game against the mariners. Got some great guests coming out. We’re going to learn about Lincoln LinkedIn, local. There’s a big Carroll County Youth program going on that I’m going to learn about as well my friends at the OTB there. Terry Crowley’s usually hanging around Greenmount station because he loves the ponies. He’s had a little issue with his wife. I wish them well, and him well, I was hoping to get him out, but not this time around. But my buddy Howard share is going to come out. We’re going to talk some hockey. Speaking of hockey, Stanley Cup Finals going on. The great Barry Trotz, future Hall of Famer, spent lunchtime with me this week. So you hear that, find that out of Baltimore positive and really doing a lot of baseball, I don’t, I don’t know why. I just know, like, while it’s still going on here. So I’ve gone around. John Eisenberg’s going to join us here this week. John Miller, it’s also a Father’s Day. So like, I’m getting some authors on Joel poily joined me from Tampa, who wrote the book on Tom Matty, who watches the Orioles every single night, and is a real Oriole historian. We got into a we got into a argument about Jesse Jefferson and bullet Bob Reynolds and and grant Jackson in the 74 relief pitching. So it was compelling, trust me, it doesn’t sound exciting, but it was, I am Nestor. We are wnst. Am 1570 towns of Baltimore, we never stopped talking a lot of baseball this week. You know, my name is Aparicio, so indulge me. Stay with us. You.
