With Corbin Burnes departing for Arizona, Luke Jones and Nestor wonder whether the signing of Japanese veteran right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano is all that Mike Elias plans to do on the front-end of the 2025 starting rotation for the Baltimore Orioles.
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:00
Well, the question now for sports radio is, what we have to give up to get a to replace we have to replace Corbin burns. Because if I go to the ballpark on opening day and you’re going to tell me this Japanese kid is a fourth or fifth pitcher, because they’ve given him a lot of money by fan standards, not a lot of money by baseball pitcher standards. But I brought this up, Albert Suarez, you compare it in the Albert Suarez, like, in some sort of favorable way, which is good with me, because I’m Venezuela, and I always want to compare people
Luke Jones 00:26
to Venezuela. So in the sense that it’s off the beaten path, not in the sense, you know, Albert Suarez got a minor league contract right here, right now, I’m going to read
8
Nestor Aparicio 00:33
something to because it gives me a chance to educate myself too, here in the offseason, if, um, pronounce his name as best you can. Sugano, correct, yes. Tom Tomoyuki Sagano. Tomoyuki Sugano, I’m going to work on that sugar. I’ll call him sugar. That’s it looks like sugar to me. It reminds me of Burke sugar, who was one of my favorite people. If he were to start 24 games this year, appear in 32 maybe do some cleanup, some bullpen, some bullpen, whatever. And he were to pitch to a sub four era. Let’s say three seven. Let’s just say three seven. And he were to go, what do you want? 130 innings. What do you want? 160 how many innings you want out of him? Sure. Okay, 130 innings. Let’s say he went 130 innings. Um pitched
Luke Jones 01:22
156 for in the Japanese league last year.
Nestor Aparicio 01:26
What if he threw a one three whip? 133 70 era. Let’s say he goes nine and seven. I know you’re not about record. Let’s say he were to do that nine and seven with a 370, era, 24 starts. That’s a lot of start. That’s a fourth of fifth starter, right? And it’s what you want. And a little mixy. Mixy would come out of the bullpen and help us out. 130 innings, sounds to me like a five inning guy, right? 2024, starts, five innings would be 125 innings, right? So five innings every time he goes out, give or take and hold you in some ball games that that’s a that’s a fifth starter, right? That profile I gave you for a good team, somewhere like that. I mean, Albert Suarez is line this year. Just so you know what I just gave you. I just gave you Albert’s. That’s what Albert Suarez did this year. Would that be sufficient for Sagano? And if it is, he’s not Corbin burns,
Luke Jones 02:21
8no, of course. I mean, I’ve never argued otherwise. I mean, to me, Sagano is a really good acquisition if he’s the second starting pitcher you acquired in an off season. You know, if you acquired two because is
Nestor Aparicio 02:34
effluent, the first or the second? Because, you know what I mean, like effluent or this time last year, you know what I mean. So, like, no, because he was part of my rotation. Part of my rotation last year. In your mind, you said that they replaced Bradish because of the elbow with burns, and it was me. I mean, I don’t know that for sure. I’m just me. The thing happens as a well, we gotta set, you know, we got a lot of money into him. He’ll be the one like racing.
Luke Jones 02:58
If they’re thinking that then they’re then they are completely lost. Because you need, you need another top, you know, even if it’s not Corbin burns, you need another guy that profiles as a one or a two, right? I mean, look, all we need to do is look at the last two years. I mean, did the Orioles have a true number one pitcher in 2023 No, they won 101 games well and but you could actually argue, go look at his numbers. Kyle Bradish was he had a better era than Corbin Burns did last year, two years ago. No, he’s he was hurt, and best case scenario is maybe he’s back in August this year. You know that it within the realm of good scenarios, as far as him coming back. So
Nestor Aparicio 03:44
you’re very hard to lose, sigh, young contender pitchers and just rebound from that. You know, we never experienced that as as a kid in the seven I know, at the same time, or at the same time, you know, I know, but at
8Luke Jones 03:55
the same time, the Texas Rangers had nowhere close to a cordon burns, and they won the World Series just two years ago, right? I mean, we, we. This is why I work. I operate thinking more in terms of the aggregate, right, thinking in terms of the collective. And what I’m telling you right now is they absolutely need a number one, number two type picture that you know, however you want to rank, Evelyn Grayson, Rodriguez and this unknown picture, you know, this hypothetical picture I’m talking about, you need a guy that fits very well. And I would say I’d want to fit ahead of those guys, you know, ideally. But you know, Sagano again, in a vacuum. I like the move. But if that’s, you know, if we’re going to do the literal, real, simplistic way of saying, that’s your Corbin burns replacement, then it’s a joke, right? I mean, of course it is. So my point is, they’ve got work to do. And my big picture point that I you know, that I conveyed a few minutes ago that I’ll go back to, is, if you’re not going to invest a long term contract. In a picture. Fine. How are you going to go about doing this where you’re starting rotation is going to be tenable year to year, and you’re not going to be in a position where you’re just draining your farm system over and over and over. Now, part of the answer to that, people might not like, you know what part of the answer that to that could be, which is how the A’s of opera or not, the A’s, the A’s to a point, but I you know they’re, they’re a weird, whatever they are, right now, let’s use the rays. Let’s use the brewers. Cleveland is another example of this. How have teams like that operated, uh, kind of in that universe. They’ve ended up trading some of their young players once they get closer to free agency. So I hope it’s not that. Let me be very clear. I don’t want this team to be the rays. I want them to aim higher for that. I absolutely do. And I’ve said to you over and over and over that the St Louis Cardinals, to me, are the the long term destiny. You know, the long term goal in terms of what the what the Cardinals have been the last 25 years, considering the size of their and
Nestor Aparicio 06:00
become a regional franchise, not become they always were, until the Nationals came, sure, and this is where I’ll make that argument to Mr. Angels. The only thing he ever said that was accurate was that that right, losing Washington would, long term, really affect Baltimore’s payroll. But my point is, like the Cardinals have never had the yes network, right? I mean, it’s never like as much as it’s regional. It’s not. Let’s run by Greg Bader now, so I’m sure it’ll just be great.
Luke Jones 06:24
So, but, but my point, but my point with all this is, look, I didn’t if you, you asked me at the end of the season if I expected them to resign Corbyn burns, I said no, and I even laid out to you the fact that his strikeout rate has declined four years in a row, or three years in a row, and, you know, understanding what you’re going to pay for him and understanding what he’s probably going to be, even if he stays healthy, you know, the you’re paying a premium for him to be an ace for a couple more years, and then he’s probably more of a middle of the rotation starter after that, and that’s still the best case scenario. And let me be very clear. I’m not saying that. That means I don’t do it 100% no, never over my dead body. I’m just saying you have to weigh both sides of it. But that said, if he, if you’re not resigning him, how are you pivoting? And that’s where I look at some of the deals that have been made, whether we’re talking about and I’m just using examples here. I’m not saying these were the only choices, but Nathan of Aldi got a three year, $75 million contract. Nathan of Aldi was the ACE for the Rangers two years ago. I’ll give you one that I think was an really interesting play that I’m fascinated to see how it’s going to turn out, because I have no idea if he’s going to be good, but he could be good, and the upside could be outstanding. I thought the Red Sox signing Walker Bueller to a one year deal, and I think it was 20, 21, million, something like that. I thought that was a fascinating deal. He was coming back from Tommy John this past year, had a bad regular season, but we all saw how he pitched for the Dodgers in October. And you’re wondering, can he get back to being where he was three second Tommy John surgery. If he is, I’m guessing the Red Sox are going to love that deal. Right to me, like, if you’re the Orioles, you gotta and and maybe they’re, they’re telling us with what’s happening here, but you’ve got to figure out what you’re going to be identity wise. From a pitching standpoint, we know that they draft hitters. We know they draft college hitters mostly, and we know that they’ve had a lot of success with doing that. Just look at the All Stars that they said last year. That’s why they’re winning gunner, Henderson, homegrown Adley rutschman, homegrown Jordan, westburg. And Henderson and westburg were not top five overall picks either. So they’ve shown they have an aptitude for doing that. However, what are you doing on the pitching side if you’re not going to spend big money and you’ve deemed drafting pitchers early to not be the best way to go about building your organization from a player a player development standpoint and a farm system standpoint. And look, they if you remember way back when they traded Dylan Bundy, it’s one of the earlier moves that Mike Elias made. They traded Dylan Bundy and they got Kyle Bradish in that deal worked out beautifully, regardless of what’s going to happen with Kyle Bradish in the future, coming back from Tommy John. But you just look at the way that they’ve operated and you say, Is this going to be a sustainable way to either get over the hump and put yourself in a position where you can win a World Series, or even if you’re putting that part of the argument aside, are you going to be able to maintain the talent pipeline over the next 789, 10 years, doing it this way, Understanding that the plan is not going to be to be drafting in the top five like you were for, you know, 2019 2021, 20, yeah,
Nestor Aparicio 09:48
8that’s what I mean about a strategy. What does this look like in Mike Elias is perfect mind and Katie Griggs is perfect mind for the next three to five years, for what’s going to happen with the. Television Network, where the revenues gone, what the sales team is going to need to do, and what the real commitment of ownership, because this is their money. And at the end of the day, where that’s why this is, well, we didn’t really want to give it to Indian news, not my money. I’m not doing that, you know, like it’s a billionaire who bought the team, who said he was serious about winning. You see, serious about winning means you need to put more money in than the 10,000 empty seats are producing right now, and you need to be better at building to get the 10,000 seats from empty to full. And I’ve been here 40 years. Katie grades, you’re doing a really lousy job. So far. I’m just giving 90 days into this, I’m judging it and saying nothing looks like it changed. You know why? It’s not me saying that? It’s your fan base. Your fan base is saying that on my Facebook page. So continue this continues to be an issue with the Angelo’s thing, and you having a press pass and me not having one, I was their complaint department for 20 years, they just thought I was a dick. No, I opened phone calls. And your customers, the people who love the baseball team, would call me and say, Hey, nasty, why? Why? Why? Why? And then I turned to them, and there’s no one to ask that question to that. And that’s 30 years of that. And that’s the Stockholm Syndrome I talk about, where the fan base here, the expectations are so low in even just communicating, communicating, being kind, is free, and that makes me want to buy a Birdland membership and come down and be a part of things, because I feel like I’m a part of things. You want the fans to feel a part of things. Make them a part of things, pretend, lie, do what everybody else does, but be front, facing, be communicative at all times. That’s all you know. And I find that that is across the board. It’s the hardest thing in life. You know, finding people who are accountable when they lose or when they don’t win, or when they’re disappointed or when things don’t go their way. And that, that, to me, was what the organ is. It felt this weekend like we’re gonna hide. We didn’t get burned. We’re just not going to say anything, but we’ll, you know, we’ll tell them we spent more money. That’s Angela. That’s the Angelo style of kid. That’s the Greg Bader style. That’s the that. That’s the old style of communication. If that’s the way you want to continue to communicate, you’ll have 10,000 empty seats. You left pissed off fans, until such point where you do go get Dylan sees or screwball, or get somebody that looks like it’s not. Doug Drabek, yeah, you know, get somebody that Luke and I are on Monday saying, Whoa. They improve the team. I mean, we’re not that hard to please or, you know, our our bars not that high. We’re not expecting to spend $300 million I wasn’t really expecting a two ten million picture, but I don’t expect excuses when you don’t get them, either. I expect the picture. I expect the 200 innings, sub three Ra, 30 starts. That’s how you’re gonna win 98 games next year. Like, if you don’t have that, we’re baseball people. We know better than chase whatever his name was that they brought up here at the end of the year. And these guys that are quad A pitchers that aren’t good enough, and we already had a dude, you and I done 45 minutes, we haven’t talked about the bullpen. Oh, bullpen. What? Plenty of time to do that in March and April and May, because the bullpen was what you were more concerned about. They are gonna have
Luke Jones 13:29
Felix Batista back. I mean, that’s, let’s not, let’s not just version of that, though. Oh, but a version who’s had well over a year to rehab from Tommy John surgery. I mean, not, not like a 1011, months he’s had, right? He’s not. He had surgery last, last October, so, but no, I hear everything you’re saying. And look, I would even push back a little bit in the kind of communication to me, it’s not even so much that it needs to be a defeatist thing as far as why you didn’t get Corbin burns just sell your product. Because I would everything, I would say would be, regardless of what happened last October and the 10,000 empty seats that you’ve talked about it live and look, I mean, that was a bad look, no matter how you want to explain it, it’s a bad look, and it’s concerning. However, I would also look at it through the lens of you’ve won 202 games the last two years. You’ve got gunner Henderson, who is shaping up to be a top five player in the sport. I mean, that’s the kind of talent we’re talking about. You have Adley rutschman Who assuming the last three months of this past season was outlier and not like that. This guy’s washed up at age 26 and I don’t think he is or anything like that. He’s another, you know, he’s a top, top 50 player in the sport, if he’s right, you know. So the cupboard is not bare here, even with the major question mark as far as the top of their starting rotation. I mean, they still have a lot of talent here, and this. Is still a team that’s capable of being very, very good, but you’ve got to augment, you know. We, I remember talking to you about this to at this point now, two or three off seasons ago, where we were saying, okay, you’ve drafted, you’ve developed. You tanked, for lack of a better term, although, you know, again, 2018 wasn’t a tank job. They they tried to be good, you know, and the thing got burned down to the to the studs, but you get to a point where you’ve done this building, and you’ve got this farm system, and you have all these this young core at the major league level that has had success, and you’ve had success as a club, and you’ve made the playoffs two years in a row. Now it hasn’t worked out in terms of winning in the playoffs, but you’ve gotten there, and that’s a big part of this, you know, get in the tournament. But, you know, we’ve talked about that inflection point in terms of, okay, how do you start turning up the dial in terms of augmenting, whether we’re talking about free agents, trades, you know, all the other ways that you get better, other than just drafting and developing, and that’s where I still look at this thing and say, what exactly is this going to be? And again, if you asked me, on October 3, Luke, do you think Corbin Burns is going to be back, I would have said no, and I would have said that with a lot of confidence. But my issue is, if you truly were in on him, and if we’re to believe that they were, and again, as I said to you, even going back several weeks ago, you know, it was my understanding that, you know, they weren’t giving up all hope, or they weren’t even trying to get burns. But you needed if, if this is at face value, that he wanted to be in Arizona and wanted to be on the West Coast. And you know, so many people had said that even before he signed with the Diamondbacks, you need to be able to read a situation and say, Look, we love Corbin, but he doesn’t love Baltimore. And look, that happens, and that’s not exclusive to Baltimore. That’s you know, there are guys that sign with teams for a variety of reasons. However, as a as an organization, as a general manager, if you’re Mike Elias, you’ve gotta have the wherewithal to recognize that if you know, short of us giving Corbin $300 million he’s not signing with us like he’s we’re not going to win tie breakers. We’re not going to win a little bit more than than Arizona or whatever West Coast team that tickles his fancy. But you need to be able to pivot and recognize and not put all your eggs in that basket, because I just named just a couple names. You know, there are a number of guys that could have gone out and signed at this point that would have been a bigger investment than Sagano, but probably would have more upside. And would it? Would, you know, even reinvigorate your fan base a little bit more? I suppose you know, although you know, again, for a lot of people as Corbin burns or bust, and you know, I that is what it is, and I’m not going to tell anyone how to feel, but you know, you just look at this and again, three months until they play a game, and you and I could be recording a segment three days from now, talking about the fact that they traded. For Dylan cease, or they traded for Luis Castillo, or someone of that ilk, that that would absolutely slot.
Nestor Aparicio 18:09
That was the kind of thing that the Angelo’s clan did back in 94 5678, you know, like they created this off season of gifts to the fans. Yeah, that made it feel like Oriole baseball, and it was a year long, and I had to be involved in it. This feels to me as a guy who’s been doing this, and I’m 56, years old, and fought with Angelo, still onto his deathbed, a I’m watching it holistically from the outside. I spent three hours six weeks ago going over and seeing Mr. Rubenstein give a speech I have given it. Can you know this? I am open hearted about all of this. I was open hearted on opening day when I was out there talking to Chris yelman about getting my press credential back. But not a lot has fundamentally changed. And every time I would talk to you, off the air, on the air, when I talk to people like John maroon last two weeks ago, on the air like Marty Conway and I, like you, people, have done a really poor job of thinking a couple of TV commercials in the middle of your games was going to give everybody the idea that Willy wonk is here and the things are really different, because it really doesn’t feel fundamentally different at all. And the 10,000 empty seats as the last act of the fan base. Literally, the last act of the fan base was to stay away from a playoff game. A playoff game play, playoff games here, everybody’s waiting for the Delman young moment until it’s 10 bucks in there. Well, I don’t know, you know, man, I mean, that’s what Katie Griggs has inherited, again, against my better angels and my wishes, I’ve been here every minute of every day for 30 years, trying to blow air into that Zeppelin and trying to get it to fly and fly the right way without 10,000 MP. Seats, flying the way that Corbin burns might want to be here. You know what I mean? Like flying away, where you’re like, well, he just, he like sunshine. He like people signed in Boston. It was cold. There. People signed in Toronto. People signed in all sorts of places. Like, at some point you’re gonna move the fantastic fence out. You’ve got a great lineup. It’s not like Corbin burns wouldn’t have the confidence to win here, or that he wasn’t going to have the bats around him, or that he didn’t have a good or bad experience here. Guy like him, if you really want him, love him up. Love him up, because you can’t replace him. Because we woke up today and wife left town and see business. I’ll disagree with seeing those 200 innings is tough.
Luke Jones 20:46
But that’s See, I disagree with that mindset that you can’t replace them, that you can’t have that mindset, you just can’t because what happens if he has a sore elbow the last week of February? Season? Just always a very good July, right? I mean, he was terrible in August, right? So, so believe me, I hear what you’re saying, but you know that that’s again for me, this wasn’t Corbin burns or bust. It’s you got it like either you’re gonna sign them. But if you feel like you can’t do it, and you feel like he does, he’s not really all that hot and bothered coming to Baltimore, unless you’re gonna give him 50 million extra than anyone else will, that’s fine. Then you need to pivot. You need way they
8Nestor Aparicio 21:23
would do this. They would go sell, sign Mike Dijon and whatever the other guy, right? And they would go sign three bullpen guys for 8 million a year. We made the ball pen batter. We’re just going to figure it out with Suarez.
Luke Jones 21:37
Well, that’s kind of what the kind of did that with Craig Kimbrel this past year, right? I mean, guys like me were kind of telling you, and I don’t, you know, I said all along, you didn’t buy that. I I bought it. But I told you all along I didn’t love it, thinking that you’re going to, you know, I wasn’t expecting that they were going to get the Craig Kimball of 2016 was my point. And that proved to be correct. And you know, anyone who, anyone who followed him the last five, six years, knew that so, so there’s a situation where they threw money at a problem and it didn’t work, right? I mean, gave him good money. So one thing I do want to point out, and again, this is where, for me, so much of what you’re talking about here, as far as selling, what you have in terms of being more visible, bring back Fan Fest. You know, all the different ideas that you could think about, right? Hypothetically, good ideas or bad ideas the past. You know, the Ravens rolling the city right now. I mean, they’re gonna, but they’re gonna own the city. I mean, every NFL team that’s in the playoffs, right? Real Estate, though, get, get yourself a headline. I understand that, but, but, you know, it’s the NFL. We need to. We also need to recognize reality here of the NFL versus every other sport. But that Sarah
Nestor Aparicio 22:45
that back in the day, I was never going to compete with Bal or too. So I mean, I the big and little, there’s room, there’s plenty of room. Oh, there’s have all the oxygen they want. I just don’t want the oxygen. But my point is, even if the Orioles
Luke Jones 22:56
8sign wants Soto, everyone would still be talking about the Ravens right now, because the NFL is king. It’s just the truth that said that doesn’t mean you don’t try. Let me, let me be clear.
Nestor Aparicio 23:04
Doesn’t mean one so does not add on the field waving to people in the middle of the game. Yeah.
Luke Jones 23:09
Okay, that’s a very that’s a $700 million wave. But no, the point, one point I wanted to push back on a little bit. You know, not that I disagree with your point, but were the Orioles at our an advantage here compared to where they were, 9495 96 not payroll wise, obviously. And market, you know, they had a much bigger regional, you know, not even a footprint. I mean, it was a the Mid Atlantic they owned. But one thing that that team, that era had to do, they had to go out and buy players. Why? Because they didn’t have anyone in their farm system. I mean, they had nothing homegrown. They were still holding on to Cal Ripken and and Mike Messina at that point, who were already vet long, long term veterans at that point in time. Let me tell you, Luke, so Alex Ochoa, Yeah, Alex Ochoa and Damon Buford and rocky Coppinger and Mike oquist and
Nestor Aparicio 24:00
Al rocky Coppinger throw the ball. Yeah, buoy, he’s throwing the ball well.
8Luke Jones 24:05
And let me be clear, I don’t mean that in saying that you don’t go out and augment. I absolutely want to see this team go out and augment. My point is in terms of what they’re selling, in terms of what you’re mentioning, much more so with Katie Griggs and ownership and marketing and all of that is, they’ve got a lot to sell as it is, and it doesn’t feel like they’re taking full advantage of that, right? You’re
Nestor Aparicio 24:30
hired. You’re a new master broadcaster. I’m losing you. Just keep talking like that. They do have a lot to sell. I, they do, they but they should sell it. I, but again, so much
Luke Jones 24:39
at some point. And we’ve talked about this, we’ve talked about this. We’ve talked about this for two or three winters now, and they’ve done it some, but not nearly enough, in my opinion. But where do you graduate from heralding your farm system and the next prospect to come? I mean, all these guys are here now, other than Kobe mayo and and Sam beso. And that’s not to say. They don’t have other guys on the way, but the top, you know, the best prospect in baseball guys, you know, rutschman, Gunner, Henderson, Jackson holiday. They’re here, right? And in the case of rutsman and Henderson, they’re all stars already. In the case of Henderson, he was an MVP candidate this year. So you have a whole lot to go off of. And now for me, and this is where it’s disappointing. This brings it back full circle to what you’re talking about with David Rubenstein and the new ownership group. You know, this feels like this should be a heck of a jumping off point to go resign Corbin burns or go sign Blake Snell or go sign Max freed, or go sign Nathan of Aldi and a legit, you know,
Nestor Aparicio 25:40
8middle of the order bat,
Luke Jones 25:43
lots of different ways to do it right, right? And that’s where I look at this and say, Look, I like Tyler O’Neill, if he stays healthy, that’s a big if I like the Sagano signing, from the standpoint of if that’s the second starting picture you’re bringing in to augment what you already have, which, you know, it’s not like the cupboards bear, you know, I like Zach Eflin a lot. I like, I still like Grayson Rodriguez’s potential a lot. Dean Kramer has more than proven himself as at least a solid back half of the rotation guy. I don’t like him as a number three, as he’s presently slated to be. But, you know, I even some of the other guys they have, you know, I mean, Kate povidge finished the year. Well, I’m fine with him competing as the number five starter, potentially, but I don’t want to just hand jobs to three guys where you say, well, maybe they’ll do it. Maybe Albert Suarez will be good again. You know, that’s not how you want to operate. You want to have enough. And, my goodness, if 2024 didn’t teach the Orioles the lesson that you need so much pitching, because that team on paper when they got burns, think about it. It was Corbin burns, Kyle Bradish, Grayson, Rodriguez, John means and Dean Kramer. I mean, that was your five on paper from the day that they acquired burns. Now, two weeks later, we found out that bradishes elbow was not great, and we knew that John means was having issues coming back from Tommy John, and ultimately ended up having to get it together Tyler wells in there. And Tyler, well, well, Tyler Wells was healthy at that point in time, but the point is,
Nestor Aparicio 27:18
well, they had a lot of arms, and now they don’t. And nine months later, smart people like you and me look at it and
Luke Jones 27:23
say, you need a lot of arms, and right now you don’t have that. You have, you know, look again, I really like, I love the effluent move. You know, I was talking about effluent a month before the trade deadline. I thought that was the kind of move that made sense for the Orioles. And to their credit, you know, they they bought someone, you know, with, you know, some prospects, and they got someone who was under team control for another year. You know, they couldn’t have, even if the Bradish thing did prompt them to get Corbin burns, as I’ve speculated about, again, I don’t know that. That’s just conjecture for me. Just looking at the timing of those two moves, getting a
8Nestor Aparicio 27:56
number one star, even change for a shortstop you were never going to use is, yeah,
Luke Jones 28:01
that was a that was a great move, 10 out of 10, regardless of burns walking after a year, that was, I have zero issue ever with that. That was a good move. Gordon burns gave them exactly what they asked for, but going into the season, they could have never expected and anticipated the degree of injuries that they had. And that’s where I will stick up for them a little bit, and how they ultimately finished, right? I mean, they were decimated by injuries, and by the end of the year, you did look at their ceiling and kind of say, it’s not, it’s not going to result in a deep October run. I didn’t think they’re going to get swept. But you know, if they had gone past Kansas City, I pitching was fine. It turned out to be the hitting, sure, sure. And there’s another lesson there, like, have they done enough offensively, when you look at it through that lens? I mean, is Tyler O’Neill replacing Anthony Santander? I mean, you know, they do have a bunch of young position players who it’s reasonable to expect those guys to get better, or most of those guys to get better. So, so there’s meat on the bone. You know. Again, the cupboards not bare here, you know, Jackson holiday to go to the Hall of Fame. He’s, I mean, I don’t know about the Hall of Fame, but I expect him to be an above average player this year, whereas he was, you know, below replacement level for a lot of he was 20, you know, I I understand that, you know. I mean, for every 20 year old that looks like Juan Soto, you have guys that look like that, but a year or two later, they’re everything you thought they were going to be. So you know, so it’s not, and this is part of their problem, to your point, talking about the messaging and just selling their product in general, even with the disappointment of burns, there’s still a lot to be excited about with this team, when you look at just how what’s already in place, but you gotta take that next step to get to the next level. And it looked like they had done that with burns, and that’s great. It didn’t work out, because everyone you know, Bradish got hurt, and Tyler wells got hurt, and Grayson Rodriguez missed the last two months of the season. All that you know, we all know what happened. So it sometimes it’s not going to. Work out. But now you the last thing you want to do is say, Okay, well, that was our example of quote, going for it, you know, getting Corbin burns and and now we’re just going to try to, you know, piecemeal, this thing, you know, piece work, this thing together. And it’s, that’s where you look at it and say, it’s not enough right now. And I don’t think anyone even, even the biggest orange colored glasses, you know, optimist right now looks at their rotation and says that it’s nearly good enough. And I would hope that’s the case for Mike Elias and sigma Dell right now too. But, yeah, you gotta go get someone. And you know, we’re about six and a half, you know, 666, and a half weeks out from the start of spring training. You certainly don’t want to be in a position like, you know, like what happened last year with Jordan Montgomery with the Diamondbacks, who it was terrible. And you know, you don’t want to be signing someone late or acquiring someone the third week of March. You know, whoever it is. You want to have them in camp. You want to have them in Sarasota on day one so that they can, you know, you can work with them, and you can tweak whatever you want to tweak, because they tweak all pitchers, you know, because they do things a certain way. And that’s why they are able to get Albert Suarez to pitch the way that he did this past year. You know, they, they’ve got the special sauce, so to speak for for these various guys, but you still have to have something to work with. And again, Sagano, I mean, I don’t mind that move. I think it’s got the potential to think about it. I think back a decade ago, you know, I guess now it’s 12 years ago, you know, the Orioles signed Wei Yin, Chen, Taiwanese pitcher who pitch, was pitching in Japan, and he was a terrific signing. You know, you can, you can make signings like that that are kind of off the beaten path. I mentioned Albert Suarez just as an example of a minor league deal, but you can’t put all your eggs in that basket. You know that that those aren’t guys that you’re going to pencil in for 175 innings. You know? I mean million dollars, if you do that, then, oh my gosh, great. But you can, well, I went
Nestor Aparicio 31:59
through this with Suarez, and we’ll take a break on this and end our year come back and argue later. But 130 innings, 370 Ra, you know, one three whip that? Do we think he’s? Do
Luke Jones 32:10
8we think he’s going to do that again at his age? Oh, I don’t know. I bet. I would bet No, though Japanese Fisher
Nestor Aparicio 32:17
year older than him,
Luke Jones 32:19
and that’s fair. That’s fine, too. Look again, and that’s why I said, even for me again, I’m looking within the realm of good outcomes, the range of good outcomes, right? Any pitcher can get hurt and never pitch for you, or, you know, anyone could be a Cinderella all star, right? I suppose you know, in the case of Sagano, to me, the best case scenario is he ends up becoming a really dependable number four number five starter. And look, you need that. You absolutely need that, Albert. That’s why Albert Suarez was so wildly valuable for them last year, because he filled that need for them. I mean, at times he was better than their number four, number five. But, you know, at the same time, I can’t look at at that signing objectively talking about someone who’s 35 years old and has never pitched in the majors, even if he does have a heck of a track record and success pitching in Japan. You know that that’s not your Corbin burns replacement, that that’s your replacement for what you thought John means was going to weigh in for starters. So, yeah, so, so, you know, so, so we’re going to see. But again, Corbin burns are no, no. Corbin burns like, what’s, what’s the pivot, what’s next? You missed out on them. Hey, some other teams did too. You know, there were other teams trying to sign Corbin burns, but you can’t sit there licking your wounds and saying, Well, we tried, gotta go. You gotta go make your next move. So they’ve got three months to do that, and really, they’ve got a month and a half to do that, because you want to have them ready for spring training, whoever you get. So I don’t know exactly who it’s going to be, but yeah, the clock is ticking, and in the meantime, yeah, you’ve got a frustrated and disappointed fan base, and I can’t blame the fan base for that, even if, even if, myself, personally, I never viewed it through the lens of Corbin burns or bust, but gotta replace him at the very least. And well, Tomoyuki Sagano is not sufficient in doing that. I think that’s stating the obvious. All right,
Nestor Aparicio 34:17
Happy New Year, everybody. We just crushed an hour of Orioles
