With the Ravens aiming to improve to 7-2 on their trip to Miami on Thursday night, below are a dozen thoughts and a prediction, each in 50 words or less:
1. There’s little about the Dolphins to make a strong argument for an upset, but the Ravens played 98 offensive snaps a few days ago, have 30-somethings along both lines, and frequently start slowly offensively. It’s also their first road game since October 3. Buffalo’s trip to Jacksonville didn’t go well.
2. How rookie Brandon Stephens fares replacing DeShon Elliott at safety will be critical, but it was interesting that Calais Campbell, Chuck Clark, and Marlon Humphrey all mentioned that the defense would miss Elliott’s passion and energy. That’s something to remember with that group already missing the intense Marcus Peters.
3. It will be interesting to see how the coaching staff divides the playing time at wide receiver with Sammy Watkins expected to make his return. The idea of more receiver-heavy sets sounds fun until remembering how much the pass protection struggles without tight ends and running backs on the field.
4. Few would have predicted both the Ravens and Dolphins being bottom-10 defenses, but a key difference has been Baltimore’s ability to thrive on third down and inside the red zone. Both are better against the run than the pass and have given up too many big plays through the air.
5. Reportedly targeted by Eric DeCosta at the trade deadline, Miami cornerback Xavien Howard will draw the difficult assignment of trying to slow Marquise Brown, who’s registered 80 or more receiving yards in four of five games. Much like Humphrey, the two-time Pro Bowl selection isn’t having his best season.
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6. The Dolphins offensive line is arguably the worst in the league and has surrendered 30 more pressures than any other team, according to Pro Football Focus. You’d like to see consistent pressure from a four-man rush and some plays from Odafe Oweh, who’s been quiet in recent weeks.
7. Whether Nick Boyle plays Thursday or not, how his return impacts Patrick Ricard will be interesting. The Pro Bowl fullback rarely played even 40% of the snaps before Boyle’s injury, but he’s playing close to 60% this season. It’s a good problem to have, but still something to figure out.
8. Coming off his best game of the season, Devonta Freeman quietly ranks 11th in PFF’s rushing grades and third in Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric among running backs with at least 33 carries. His workload remains a small sample, of course, but he’s run well over the last three games.
9. Watching the Tua Tagovailoa story play out reminds us just how difficult it can be finding a franchise quarterback after the Dolphins were among those #TankForTua teams. That should make Baltimore fans smile watching Lamar Jackson, knowing how blessed the Ravens were to get him at 32nd overall.
10. Speaking of that draft, it’s worth noting Ozzie Newsome’s final pick, 2018 seventh-round defensive lineman Zach Sieler out of Ferris State, has blossomed into a rock-solid player for the Dolphins. He is playing 41% of Miami’s defensive snaps and has graded sixth among qualified interior linemen, per PFF.
11. This FiveThirtyEight article only reinforces the Ravens reminding me of a battle-tested NBA team that starts slowly and picks its spots to plays its best defense. No matter how bleak it can look, you still feel that big run coming. We’ll see if that approach — intentional or not — is sustainable.
12. The last four prime-time games involving Baltimore have been decided by a single score, a trend the Ravens hope to break with a more comfortable victory. Going on the road on a short week is tough, but the away team has prevailed in four of the last eight Thursday games.
Prediction: Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki and running back Myles Gaskin will give the pass defense problems, but neither Tagovailoa nor Jacoby Brissett can do enough to win without the Ravens really beating themselves with mistakes and turnovers. It won’t be a 2019-like blowout, but Baltimore wins 31-17.
