With the Ravens traveling to Kansas City to meet the defending Super Bowl champions in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game on Thursday night, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. The pass rush and wide receiver are annual preseason topics, but the offensive line is the biggest question Baltimore has had in a long time. The group could prove fine with room to grow, or this could be a weakness that threatens to derail Super Bowl aspirations. Lots of unknown.
2. Having blitzed 43.5% of the time against a much more experienced offensive line in last year’s AFC title game, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is surely ready to throw the kitchen sink at this group. Todd Monken needs to have more answers for pressure than he did last January.
3. All summer signs pointed to Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele as the guards, but right tackle remains the unknown. It’s easier to pivot from the veteran to the rookie than the opposite, so my prediction is Patrick Mekari getting the Week 1 nod with Roger Rosengarten possibly rotating in some.
4. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were the best players on the field in January, but Kyle Hamilton was the top Raven and remains critical to containing Kansas City. Despite being banged up some this spring and summer, Hamilton seems poised to jump into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.
5. Hamilton’s versatility coupled with the inexperienced Trenton Simpson replacing Patrick Queen could prompt more dime looks after Baltimore ranked last in snap percentage using six-plus defensive backs last season, per the FTN Almanac. Andy Reid will likely try to isolate Simpson in coverage as he targeted Queen as a rookie.
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6. The excitement about a backfield including Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is obvious, but between the offensive line and Henry’s running style not exactly meshing with how Baltimore operated in recent seasons, a choppy start wouldn’t shock me. Then again, I remember Mark Ingram’s first carry as a Raven.
7. The Ravens had an excellent offense last year, which included the NFL’s ninth-highest first-half dropback rate and the seventh-highest game-neutral early-down passing rate. Even with Henry, the last thing I’d want to see is regressing philosophically trying to overcorrect for the AFC title game. Jackson the passer showed marked growth.
8. Having covered him as an undrafted linebacker a decade ago, I’m confident Zach Orr will be a successful defensive coordinator, but facing Reid, Mahomes, and Kelce is an extremely tough opening draw. Mike Macdonald had some growing pains a couple years ago, so some patience is definitely warranted.
9. The Ravens weren’t the only defense to experience offseason attrition as Kansas City traded top cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who had the goal-line strip of Zay Flowers. It’ll be interesting seeing how Trent McDuffie — an outstanding slot corner — fares playing outside more often, especially if isolated on Flowers Thursday night.
10. The rebranded Nnamdi Madubuike received little attention this summer after signing a $98 million extension, but I’m fascinated to see what he does for an encore to his 13-sack breakout. Matching that total won’t be easy, but Madubuike needs to remain dynamic inside for this pass rush not to slip.
11. Speaking of near-nine-figure deals, Ronnie Stanley is entering a contract year after taking a pay cut that voided his 2025 salary and Marlon Humphrey is coming off an injury-plagued season and carrying cap numbers exceeding $22 million through 2026. This is a critical year for two former Pro Bowl talents.
812. Nate Wiggins may not play much Thursday, but keeping him off the field will be difficult as Humphrey enters a pivotal campaign and Brandon Stephens is a pending free agent. The 2024 rookie class probably won’t make a major impact early, but Rosengarten has the clearest path to playing time.
Prediction: The hype and excitement of this being the NFL’s season-opening matchup aside, you can’t place too much importance on this game because of what happened in January. The Ravens — and certainly their fans — would feel great about a win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, but that amounts to little more than a 1-0 start and an early-season confidence boost when a potential postseason rematch would still be more than four months away. At the same time, a loss to the Super Bowl champions is hardly the end of the world despite the “Here we go again” vibes and reaction such a result would surely spawn. The Ravens are more than capable of beating the defending Super Bowl champions just as Detroit did in the NFL opener a year ago, and we shouldn’t forget just how dominant the 2023 team truly was before that bitter ending. However, the offensive line is such an unpredictable variable debuting in a hostile environment against a front that gave Baltimore plenty of problems the last time around. Kansas City also has the edge in both quarterback play and coaching, which is something you hardly ever say about the Ravens. Simply put, I’m not picking against Mahomes and Reid again, and regardless of Thursday’s outcome, I probably wouldn’t bet against them if these teams were to meet again in the playoffs. The Ravens will score more points than they did last January, but their defense will also surrender more. The Chiefs win 24-20 to begin the 2024 season.
