With the Ravens facing Kansas City in the first AFC championship game played in Baltimore in 53 years on Sunday afternoon, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Though the Ravens are favored for the first time in their five AFC title game appearances in franchise history, Marlon Humphrey compared Kansas City to the University of Alabama, saying the Chiefs are “still the team to beat.” Baltimore has remained respectful but confident discussing the defending champions this week.
2. Lamar Jackson owns the spotlight, but Mike Macdonald’s defense can seal its legacy against Patrick Mahomes after looking like Baltimore’s best group since the days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed all season. Taking down Kansas City and its championship pedigree would leave no doubt about this defense’s greatness.
3. The last quarterback and offense to play anything resembling a complete game against the Ravens was Matthew Stafford and the Rams, who scored 31 points in Week 14. Considering Baltimore’s advantages everywhere else, you get the feeling that Mahomes will need to play near-flawless football to win.
4. That said, Todd Monken’s offense needs to start faster than it did last week. A returning Mark Andrews should provide a lift even if he’s on a pitch count in his first action since his ankle injury suffered in mid-November, but I’m anticipating Isaiah Likely receiving the bulk of snaps.
Ravens OC Todd Monken on making in-game adjustments: “Like my wife says, ‘I don’t know why you don’t just call the plays that work. It just seems that simple. Why would you call anything but the plays that work?’
“I said, ‘You’re right, honey. As usual, you’re right.’” pic.twitter.com/UrML7AN7xQ
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5. Kansas City has a strong interior line, but the absence of All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney will make it very difficult to slow Justin Madubuike, whom Pro Football Focus credited with seven pressures against Houston. Madubuike wasn’t playing at this elite level when these teams last met in 2021.
6. The great value of Kyle Hamilton is now a weekly talking point, but how effectively he covers Travis Kelce and plays the Kansas City run could be one of the deciding factors in this game. Of course, Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen will also be major players in this department.
7. Why is Hamilton so significant? The Chiefs use more heavy personnel with multiple tight ends than in past years, but playing base defense could compromise Baltimore’s pass coverage against the surgical Mahomes. Hamilton’s size and physicality to play like a linebacker affords Macdonald the ability to remain in the nickel.
8. Kansas City’s pass defense is good and gets stronger as the game progresses, which is more reason to start fast. Steve Spagnuolo has taken wrinkles from Baltimore’s defense like the tendency to blitz defensive backs. Sending them and getting home before Jackson scrambles or checks down are obviously different stories.
9. The Chiefs haven’t been good against the run, ranking 24th in yards per carry allowed and 27th in DVOA. Jackson had to be licking his chops seeing the space Josh Allen found last week. If the Ravens start fast, they should be able to lean hard into the run quickly.
10. How often have two teams met in a conference championship with rookies leading each offense’s wide receiver group like Zay Flowers and Rashee Rice? Chiefs wide receivers were a punch line most of the year, but Rice played like a legitimate No. 1 option down the stretch.
811. Kansas City advanced to a sixth straight AFC title game despite finishing tied for 27th in takeaways and tied for 23rd in giveaways. A minus-11 turnover ratio isn’t what you’re used to seeing from an NFL final four team, but the Chiefs weren’t great in that department last year either.
12. Lewis, Reed, and Jonathan Ogden will be in attendance along with the likes of Terrell Suggs, Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, Matt Stover, and Todd Heap. As you’d expect for the biggest home game in franchise history, the Ravens are bringing out the big guns. What a special day for Baltimore.
Prediction: It doesn’t get any better than the two best quarterbacks on the planet — Jackson this season and Mahomes over the last five years — squaring off for the chance to go to the Super Bowl. Seeing this matchup in January is long overdue, but plenty of others will play big parts in determining which team represents the AFC in Las Vegas in two weeks — including the head coaches with Super Bowl rings. The Chiefs have a clear edge in experience with only a handful of players on Baltimore’s roster having played in a game of this magnitude before, but the Ravens are at home and have been the better team on both sides of the ball all season. Beyond the brilliance of Mahomes that seemingly finds another level in the playoffs, the Chiefs do have a physical ground game that should pose more of a challenge than Houston’s if running back Isiah Pacheco isn’t bothered too much by a toe injury. The Kansas City offense is coming off one of its best performances of the season averaging a whopping 7.7 yards per play at Buffalo, so maybe it is as simple as flipping the switch for the reigning Super Bowl champions. Still, Macdonald’s defense is much better and healthier than the Bills were last week. Mahomes and the Chiefs will give the Ravens their toughest game since early December, but the time has finally come for Jackson to finish his story in Super Bowl LVIII. Baltimore wins 24-20 for one of the top moments in local sports history.
