With the Ravens looking to earn a second straight win to remain in control of its postseason path against New England on Sunday night, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Are the Ravens finally figuring things out after the shutout in Cincinnati? Are the Patriots anywhere near as great as an 11-3 record indicates? The postseason ramifications are a given, but this is a measuring-stick game as each team owns just one win against an opponent currently above .500.
2. M&T Bank Stadium has long carried a reputation of providing a strong home-field advantage, but Baltimore is trying to avoid finishing with the worst home record in franchise history and has one last chance to win a prime-time home game. Meanwhile, New England’s a perfect 6-0 on the road.
3. The red zone is a talking point pundits can cite any given week, but the Ravens are 31st in red-zone offense while the Patriots are 32nd in red-zone defense. The unit that shows less ineptitude in this department likely wins what most anticipate being a very close game.
4. “Before we talk about the physical tools, I think it’s the ‘mental.’ They put everything on this dude’s plate. This is a new system for him this year. He has full control.” Zach Orr didn’t mince words complimenting Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. The defense will have its hands full.
5. Kyle Hamilton compared New England’s ground game to what the Ravens saw against Detroit in Week 3, which didn’t end well. The difference is Maye’s mobility as Hamilton noted that it’s been a while since Baltimore has faced someone like him. Disciplined rush lanes will be a must Sunday night.
6. The Patriots’ propensity for running the ball makes the timing of Teddye Buchanan’s knee injury less than ideal. Trenton Simpson’s previous starting stints didn’t go well and were also detrimental to Roquan Smith’s performance at times. Of course, Hamilton playing close to the line of scrimmage should help.
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7. Speaking of the ground game, New England has struggled to stop the run over the last four games, which coincides with an ankle injury to star defensive tackle Milton Williams. The absence of inside linebacker Robert Spillane won’t help the Patriots’ cause in that department either.
8. Considering the Ravens’ difficulties creating pressure, it’s worth pointing out Maye is the best in the NFL against the blitz, according to DVOA. He’s also first in DVOA on deep passes of 16-plus air yards, which is significant after the way Aaron Rodgers threw deep against Baltimore two weeks ago.
9. Lamar Jackson is certainly looking healthier, so the next step for the two-time MVP is to improve on third down. After a 102.5 passer rating on third down two years ago and an incredible 118.9 mark last season, Jackson’s passer rating on third down is just 75.3 in 2025.
10. Reporters don’t get to watch much of note during regular-season practices, but there was a heavy focus on stripping the football during Wednesday’s open portion. Baltimore is fully aware of Rhamondre Stevenson’s 17 career fumbles despite rookie TreVeyon Henderson becoming the primary back in recent weeks.
11. According to Next Gen Stats, Keaton Mitchell has reached 20 miles per hour on six carries, which equals Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs for the most in the NFL. Of course, Mitchell has 161 fewer carries than Gibbs and 233 fewer than Taylor. He’s a home run waiting to happen.
12. With Pittsburgh playing in Detroit Sunday afternoon, the Ravens will either have a chance to move into a first-place tie or face the danger of a two-game deficit and a Week 17 elimination scenario. A Steelers loss and a Baltimore win would guarantee a Week 18 AFC North championship game.
Prediction: Last Sunday’s win over Joe Burrow and Cincinnati was the kind of complete performance observers have been waiting to see from John Harbaugh’s team for months, but the Bengals are also 4-10 and out of the playoffs for the third straight season. In other words, the Ravens still have much work to do to earn real trust as a legitimate contender in the AFC. The Steelers disposing of Miami last Monday reiterated that Baltimore will need to earn its postseason spot, which is a good thing since this organization’s goals are greater than simply being happy to sneak in after a 1-5 start. How New England responds to blowing a 21-point lead last week and suffering its first loss in nearly three months will be interesting, and Mike Vrabel-led teams have certainly had their share of success against the Ravens in the past. That said, Baltimore remains the more desperate team of the two and has the experience edge in these types of games compared to this iteration of the Patriots. This one feels close to a coin flip, but a strong rushing performance against a banged-up New England defense will send the Ravens to a 23-20 victory.
