With the Ravens eyeing a fourth straight victory and welcoming close neighbor and upstart Washington to town on Sunday afternoon, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Jayden Daniels obviously has a long way to go to catch two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, but the Rookie of the Week — for the fourth time in five games — meeting the AFC Offensive Player of the Week? Two former Heisman winners leading the top two scoring offenses? This should be fun.
2. I have no problem with Dean Pees returning, but truthfully, it raised my concern level for the defense. Adding the former defensive coordinator as an advisor over the summer barely garners a mention, but it’s tough not to view this as a bit of a panic move five games in.
3. That doesn’t mean Zach Orr is solely to blame for the 26th-ranked scoring defense. Hardly. Like Kyle Hamilton said, “We have to tackle, we have to get off blocks, we have to communicate, and we’ve been saying this for five weeks now, so it’s time to start actually doing it.”
4. At least Baltimore stops the run. Washington ranks 31st — ahead of only Buffalo — in yards per carry allowed (5.1). The Commanders are good at linebacker with Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, but that isn’t a front built to stop a rushing attack featuring Derrick Henry and Jackson. Good luck.
5. Meanwhile, Washington running back Brian Robinson missed the entire practice week and is officially questionable with a knee injury. Prior to his limited Week 5, Robinson ranked second in the NFL in yards after contact per carry, per PFF. His presence would be sorely missed against Baltimore’s stingy run defense.
Stanley, Humphrey officially questionable for Ravens’ Week 6 tilt with Washington: https://t.co/v5F1JKrLjd
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6. Andrew Vorhees is off the injury report after missing two games with a high-ankle sprain, but I’m expecting Patrick Mekari to remain at left guard and Roger Rosengarten at right tackle for the time being. I’m sure Vorhees will be back in the starting mix at some point.
7. Though Marlon Humphrey is dealing with an ankle injury, the spotlight will be on Brandon Stephens with how frequently Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin lines up on his side of the field. That matchup becomes even more critical if Washington struggles to stay on schedule with its running game.
8. On the flip side, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are coming off their best games of the season and will face a below-average group of Commanders cornerbacks. It may not matter much if Washington doesn’t stop the run, but the potential is there for another big passing day for Jackson.
9. Washington has converted a league-best 38% of its third-and-long situations, per Sharp Football. That’s notable with how much Daniels has leaned on a ground game that will find tough sledding this week. Of course, Baltimore’s defense was quite charitable on third downs against Cincinnati last week.
10. The Commanders have been aggressive using no-huddle offense and going for fourth downs in addition to Daniels’ ability to take off out of structure and wreck defenses with his legs. The Ravens must find ways to pressure the rookie without letting him escape the pocket. Easier said than done.
11. Since going a disappointing 1-for-4 inside the red zone against Kansas City, the Ravens have scored touchdowns on 14 of their last 16 trips inside the 20-yard line. The problem has been the defense surrendering touchdowns on nine of 12 red-zone possessions since that Chiefs game.
12. There’s little hope for a meaningful rivalry when you’re guaranteed just one meeting every four years, and Washington has been too irrelevant to dislike — Daniel Snyder aside — for most of the Ravens’ existence. However, Daniels definitely has a chance to change the landscape for local bragging rights. He’s really good.
Prediction: This has the potential to be the best Ravens-Washington game we’ve seen in an underwhelming series history, but Baltimore is 21-1 in games started by Jackson against NFC opponents. That lack of familiarity coupled with the Commanders’ reliance on the ground game and the Ravens’ ability to shut down the run could lead to scenarios where this one really gets out of hand in favor of the home team, especially if Daniels’ lack of experience shows up in his biggest NFL test to date. But even when the Ravens were dominating Dallas through three quarters in Week 3, we saw how a shoddy pass defense can facilitate a comeback in a short period of time. Daniels throws a beautiful deep ball even on the run, and this defense has surrendered as many big plays as anyone so far this season. However, I keep coming back to the Ravens’ dynamic rushing attack being the deciding factor that will not only lead to plenty of yards and points, but it will limit Washington’s possessions, putting more pressure on a rookie quarterback to capitalize on scoring opportunities. New head coach Dan Quinn has the Commanders playing aggressive and confident football and the Baltimore defense remains untrustworthy, but the Ravens will win their fourth straight game in a 31-23 final.
