In an offseason with unlimited possibilities after incredible success on the field in 2023, Luke Jones and Nestor take a deep dive into the arsenal of prospects and abundance of position players the Baltimore Orioles have in their farm system. And what that could mean for an offseason of free agency, trade possibilities and the inevitable rising payroll that the Angelos family will need to support with more money.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
orioles, year, bullpen, talking, trade, santander, players, homeruns, henderson, team, roster, offseason, point, good, pitched, arbitration, luke, kyle gibson, rodriguez, baltimore
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome back wn S T, Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore positive we are a positively get Maryland crabcake tour back out on the road. I promise new dates are brought to you by our friends at the Maryland lottery. We did a pretty good time. Drug city on Friday at the fountain had my son on also Chuck Jacobs who runs the fountain over there making some old fashions. This guy Luke Jones joined us along with George Schulman. Youโll be hearing that all week long as we talked some baseball some science, some Thunderhawks and Pennsylvania, amongst other things, all are brought to you by our friends at WIN donation. 8669 donation you by two you get two free 0% financing throughout the month of October and our friends at Jiffy Lube multi care if my old change light came on on Friday, if your oil change light comes on. Thereโs a Jiffy Lube right around the corner from you. Make sure you go find them. Weโll be talking more about them. Iโm doing some charity stuff this week. I thought I was going to be doing baseball playoff games. I thought we were going to be flying somewhere Minnesota Houston it would have been Houston. instead. Weโre watching TV here this week and getting ready for the Detroit Lions to come to town after a weekend in London. I thought itโd be good opportunity. Luke had a long conversation with Dennis that weโve run from Thursday from Dennis Dennis the show. And Dennis is away this week a little bit having a good time himself. Let me get over to coons Baltimore for to have my coons logo on here. I have not really had a chance with Luke other than in the early morning in Arlington, Texas where you and I did several hours of radio in the in the hotel after wasnโt a boarded trip down there. Although I did have some delicious Texas barbecue waiting for my wife on Sunday night. So she was very pleased with that. We havenโt had a chance to like really sort of pick up where we go from here and you and I bought most of the way home and the car and the in the flight about the offseason and baseball offseason and football offseason how itโs different. Itโs definitely different. And you know, one part of it is sitting here the next three weeks and watching the other teams play every night where in the NFL, you lick your wounds, you feel bad, you lose a playoff game, you watch some games the following Sunday, you and I will usually go to the Super Bowl for Chadโs still got involved. Baseball is different. Weโre not going to the World Series where I guess weโre gonna watch weโll watch these games all week long and see how it turns out certainly not as good for Atlanta, or LA. But the Orioles for the better seeds for how taking a week off. And the bye week affects all of this. But youโve had a little while to like marinate on it. And I know it was more difficult in the aftermath for you and I to discuss anything other than what the hell happened in Texas last night. But now that it plays out, and thereโs an offseason and the thoughts of who are we dealing for what because it really feels like to me if youโre a fan, youโre waiting for Mike Elias to do things in this offseason and this is an offseason where I think trading Austin Hays, Ryan mountcastle Some of the guys that have been around I think one of the reasons this hurts so bad, and maybe even for you as a journalist being around this team. This is a group of guys that have been together since they were puppies. I mean, one of the things Ryan Rifkin talks about is playing with all these guys. And now theyโve arrived. It feels early to break up the band. But between Westberg Couser II, even Henderson brand new and holiday coming in the pipeline, this is gonna be a different team in April do
Luke Jones 03:29
it is I think the question is how different and letโs be clear, some of the the problems that weโre going to be talking about are a product of having too many players too much organizational depth at certain spots. And then how do you marry that with the idea of getting better, not just being happy to be here because they did that this year, they had this amazing season that should always be remembered fondly. I think other than the three World Series teams, I think you can make a case for this season being as gratifying as just about any other beyond that just because of you know, relative to the expectations going into the year and where how far theyโve come in two years. But the difference is now and I wrote about this over the weekend at Baltimore positive.com is we are now in the transition phase between happy to be here and thatโs not just for fans but I think the Orioles themselves, too. How do you get over the October hump? I think the good news is I think itโs very clear what they need and itโs not as though they need half a dozen pieces necessarily. You know, I think a lot of this is going to be solved from within and a lot of this is going to be solved with Gunnar Henderson is going to be a year older Adley rutschman is going to be a year older. Jordan Westberg if heโs still here is going to be a year older. But you have all these players at triple A Norfolk right now and we saw this play out over the second half of this past season, whether youโre talking about a coltan cows or whether youโre talking about a Heston curse dad who did get his cup of more than a cup of coffee,
Nestor Aparicio 05:08
I forgot about him all the way to prospects I forget about them.
Luke Jones 05:13
Yeah, you have him you have someone like Kobe mayo, who was at triple A Norfolk corner, infielder who, I donโt think heโs gonna be there very long next year, you have Jackson Holliday, where the question is going to be? Is he on the opening day roster? Or is he gonna be more like rutschman. And you see him arrive, Memorial Day weekend or something along those lines, you have not as much on the pitching side. But you do have a couple pitchers who have reached the triple A level that could become interesting over the course of next season. So what I just laid out there is a good problem to have because something is going to have to give here because you do have a log jam. You do have guys at your point, Norfolk, I didnโt even mention someone like Kyle sours. Or Joey Ortiz, who had a great season at triple A Norfolk and was stuck there, you know, because the Orioles were crowded in the infield. So if youโre Mike Elias, you have the challenge this offseason of striking the right balance between, you know, understanding you have some positions you want to augment. Clearly theyโre looking for at least a top half of the rotation starting pitcher. I think at the very least youโre aiming for a number three, you know, thatโs a go along with Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, those three in any order, youโre youโre identifying that whether it comes via trade, or youโre dipping your toes into the free agent market, you clearly need to do some work with your bullpen. And a lot of thatโs going to be dependent on is Tyler Well is going to be a starter moving forward, is DL Hall going to be a starter moving forward. If theyโre not, then I think those two along with your Cano, thereโs the makings of a good foundation for a bullpen but youโre still not gonna have Felix Batista. So I think youโre targeting a high leverage reliever, whether itโs via trade, or thatโs something that you can get in free agency. And again, I think thatโs something thatโs not going to, you know, thatโs not gonna be $100 million kind of contract when weโre talking about John Angelo and the realities of what he is or isnโt going to be willing to spend. So you have that, on the offensive side of things. As I mentioned, I think a big question is, and you you brought this up, mentioning Austin Hayes or Jordan Westbrook just as examples. But I think you have a case for the Orioles where they stand right now. You have a group of veteran guys, and Iโm not talking about Gunnar Henderson and Ally Roger, and Iโm talking about basically everyone behind them that played in the major leagues this year, you have a group of guys, many of them have been here for at least a few years. And youโre talking about guys that youโre familiar with guys that have offered you a high floor, and guys that, frankly, they were contributors towards winning 101 games this year. So you donโt want to be dismissive of what they contributed. However, how many of those guys are going to be here for the long haul, understanding that weโre talking about guys that are into year two year three of arbitration. In the case of an Anthony Santander, heโs a year away from free agency, and Iโm just using that as an example. But you have guys like that. And then you have these guys that are a triple A Norfolk or guys that have gotten a cup of coffee like cursed at, like a Colton Couser Jordan Westbrook got more than that in the second half of the season. But you have guys that have less experienced, theyโre not as proven, but they certainly on paper have a much higher floor. So if youโre Mike Elias, youโre gonna have to make some moves. Iโd be shocked if this team isnโt making at least a couple notable two significant trades this offseason training guys,
Nestor Aparicio 08:37
youโve heard of that you like that? You might have their jersey, like, you know, other than rutschman and Henderson, feel in Rodriguez, I guess the rest of radish Bradish. Fair enough.
Luke Jones 08:51
I think those other than those for now, letโs be clear. Iโm not saying that those are the only four that I would say will not get trained that there are other guys that they have that I would think are very unlikely to be traded, letโs say Mullins, but yes. And the reason why is not because Cedric moments is coming off of a good season. But you look at their system right now, to me, we saw enough of Colton Couser I think heโs going to hit eventually in the major leagues, but he struggled with the bat. But the big thing was defensively he didnโt heโs not a centerfielder in the major leagues, their closest thing they have to a centerfielder in their system is the Enrique Bradfield kid that they just drafted who is at least another four year away, I think best case scenario, youโre talking about him and in 2025. So Iโm with you on that unless unless youโre trading Cedric Mullins and youโre acquiring some other team centerfielder and a different deal or something like that. Yeah. But the point is, you got to strike the right balance here of wanting to continue your upward trend as far as making the playoffs and taking the next step. And it doesnโt mean you have to win 101 games again, because weโve seen this postseason that. That is not the right Was it for playing in the ALCS? Thatโs obvious. So but you want to put yourself in position to make the playoffs take the next step. So how are you balancing? The fact that you have 16? Guys that are arbitration eligible on this roster second most in the majors behind the Yankees at 17? You know, I think a couple other teams of 16 as well, the Mets. So that takes
Nestor Aparicio 10:23
the payroll through the doing any a lot of guys.
Luke Jones 10:27
Well, and thatโs part of this and that doesnโt, you know, payroll is going to be the big unknown here, right. I mean, thatโs just the reality, whether youโre on the optimistic side of things, the realistic side of things, or the pessimistic side of things, itโs somewhere itโs
Nestor Aparicio 10:43
gonna be the pessimist because I mean, Iโve seen every decision from here forward is going to involve John Angeles. I mean, John Angeloโs had nothing to do with drafting Colton, Couser, or gunner, or any of that. Johnโs now an expert because Johnโs got the money. And Iโve seen Johnโs ego involved in all of this the last year. Boy, if thereโs a way to screw it up, thatโs going to be the way to screw it up. The thing thatโs going to screw this up is going to be the Angeloโs family. I donโt I thatโs not Mr. Speaking, that should be a fair warning to anybody thatโs had their eyes open, that this is going to be at the at the pleasure of the Angeloโs family. And thatโs when things have always gotten a little weird here. You know, I mean, to me, I love the success. I love the team. I I got my jacket still out because itโs a little winter kind of jacket. I have zero confidence that when Elias goes down the hallway and explains all this to Angeloโs that oh Molins is going to be making 12 million this year. Well, letโs get rid of him. Let you know mean like that, like, what are we talking about with the 16 arbitration? Like what kind of money are we when we put a dart on these players for a salary and 2024 and trying to figure out whoโs expendable and whoโs not part of it is how much they cost? Right. I mean, the cost was part of Manzini at the end, the cost is part of any of these guys who get to the point where they plan on the rookie deal anymore.
Luke Jones 12:14
Right, right. And long, there are projections at work here. And and Iโll disagree. I donโt think John Angeles is making calls on specific players, but budget wise across the board. Thatโs where youโre talking about with Mike Elias. And itโs like, okay, we were paying these, this group of 16 players who are you know, and some of these guys are further along in arbitration than others, right? I mean, Anthony Santander and Iโm using MLB, trade rumors, their projection projections are usually pretty darn spot on, as it pertains to what guys will likely get an arbitration. Anthony Santander is the big one, heโs going to be $12.7 million in the final year of his presidency, thatโs the projection for him. So youโre talking, you know, thatโs a sizable race from where he was this past year. In the case of a Mullins or an Austin, Hays, theyโre gonna be up just north of $6 million for each of those guys. So letโs be clear, that doesnโt mean theyโre gonna clear the deck or anything crazy like that. But
Nestor Aparicio 13:13
thereโs been $25 million, you spent $25,000,000.20 $5 million. This I mean, thatโs how John Angeles is going to look at it and say, youโre taking my payroll from 40 to 70. And we havenโt even improved the team. We donโt even have a pitcher.
Luke Jones 13:32
Well, itโs not that big of an increase, because those guys werenโt making zero last year. The point is, yes, their payroll is going to go up, how much itโs going to go up? How much thatโs going to impact what they spend on on potential free agents, which they have dip their toes into it, but itโs been now itโs been Kyle Gibson, which was $10 million. Itโs been an Adam Fraser, who was $8 million, you know, itโs been, you know, it was Michael Gibbons, who was $5 million down the drain, because he was awful this year and couldnโt stay healthy. So you know, itโs not as though they havenโt spent it all. But it hasnโt been very much and theyโre going to be forced to now spend more on the arbitration side. So
Nestor Aparicio 14:13
whatโs something we havenโt talked about? Itโs something that fans havenโt discussed in the least in six years. Other than we suck her we drafting? Oh my god, weโre good. Letโs win the World Series. It kind of happened really quick, right? I mean, there wasnโt a middle phase for this. The middle phases. Well pretend they won 87 games and got bounced in a wildcard game. Yeah. Instead of winning 101 pretend they had a good year. Not a good they had a great year. But this pretend it was a good year and youโre youโre building up into this, the salary comes very, very quickly. And for all of these guys, and we havenโt talked about Henderson and we havenโt talked about rutschman extending those guys. Thatโs where the real nut is the nut isnโt whether Molins is making six up from two or Santander is making 12 up from six Itโs itโs really about, oh, Henderson Oh, we want to keep him around and 2728 29 Weโre, weโre making real commitments. Thatโs $100 million. Thatโs just $100 million straight out of the gate, youโre gonna have to pay him 30 $40 million a year and put that down on your books down the line.
Luke Jones 15:19
Well, itโs not, no, youโre not paying them 30 or $40 million a year, if you extend them now youโre extending him, youโre gonna youโre gonna pay him more than heโs making now, which is nothing wrong. Youโre going to thereโs opportunity cost involved there. I mean, youโre certainly going to pay more now. But the beauty about an extension for someone like a gunner Henderson is year 789. And look what heโs signed a nine year deal right now. I have no idea. Heโs like Scott Boras client, it is
Nestor Aparicio 15:45
a 300 million deal if you signed a nine year deal, right? It would that it would be 200 at least Right?
Luke Jones 15:51
Um, it probably 200 200 with some wouldnโt be 300. Because youโre talking about six years of, you know, five more years of club control for someone like him, that would be much more cost controlled. But itโs a lot. Itโs a lot.
Nestor Aparicio 16:05
And that is in the way of it does it. John,
Luke Jones 16:11
if youโre going to do it, that did they donโt have to do that. Um, see, thatโs, thatโs proper, responsible, long term planning, but they donโt have to do that to build their 2024 roster. Gunnar Henderson is not going anywhere.
Nestor Aparicio 16:27
Like Elias would care about 2028 And John Angelo Sue, we should all hope that that family doesnโt own this team, five years from now. I mean, like, at the end of the day, Iโll write that all day long. Iโll screen that to the highest Hosannas, like you should hope that when the bill comes through for Henderson, rutschman, whoever they signed, Rodriguez, if he becomes that guy, that theyโre not the ones paying that bill. So to some degree, this is about John Angeloโs getting a champagne shower again, 11 months from now, while Stan Charles watches on, instead of asking questions. I would say, for John, and for Mike, their short term thought isnโt about Henderson down the line, but the fans are, I mean, the fans were already asking about it back in May, June. So where and Luke is here, by the way, and you and I got into this fight in Arlington on the way home, itโs so different than football, isnโt it? Just talking about it because arbitration in the players and where the Orioles are with this vast riches of all of these young players and how best to manage the capital, the human capital of that to say, we canโt have three shortstops? You know, we canโt have six outfielders, you know, pitching is different, we can have all the pitching we want. But some of the position players they are gonna get in the way of each other. And I think that opens up a really an unlimited amount of things they could do. I mean, they, they really have a wide, wide variety of a lot of things. And a lot of directions they can go in. And this is the first time Mike Elias and John Angeles are going to sit down and talk about where it goes from here. Because it was not fun to talk about the last five years other than get a player, get a player, get a player hat, you know, keep Brandonโs head together, get out there and play these games so we can get our next Colton Couser. So we can get our next testing curse that well, they got all of that now. And they have to your point. Anybody in the industry would say they have an embarrassment of riches, they have an incredible treasure trove and wealth of things they could do now how they manage it, the one thing they donโt have a lot of his money, although theyโll cry about, they have more money than you think they have. Letโs put it the other way.
Luke Jones 18:44
I donโt disagree with you on that. And the one thing that they donโt have as much of in their system is on the pitching side. They donโt have as much I mean, itโs itโs really the the embarrassment of riches. Is there a position player depth in their in their system? So yeah, thatโs where you look at where they stand. And let me just Iโm going to run off the names for you right now. Because, you know, sometime there, we mentioned Hayes we mentioned Marlins, yes. Cos itโs going to be part of the conversation, especially when you have Karstadt come in. You have cows are in the system. You have guys, some other guys that are infielders right now, who could eventually become outfielders. So you are going to look at that. But I think where it starts become more interesting is, you know, Jorge Mateo $2.9 million is his projection. Iโm guessing where heโd been materials, probably not going to be back. Certainly not going to be back in any kind of capacity where heโs going to be playing nearly as often Ramona Reyes is set to make $2 million. Iโd be shocked if both those guys are back. I think itโs if I had to predict right now Iโm guessing both guys are gone, but certainly would only think one is back if either or back. So you have that. I think some of these bullpen arms are interesting. Weโve forgotten about Dylan Tate he missed the entire season with four or arm and elbow issues. If the or if he if he underwent Tommy John surgery the Orioles never announced it. Yeah they announced when Felix Batista had Tommy John surgery so weโre still in tightness as he recovered. Can he pitch he was he was a pretty big part of their bullpen in 22. You know, especially late in the season, so where is he but heโs heโs owed $1.5 million projected in arbitration CNL Perez $1.3 million called Ervin 1.8 800,000. Per Keegan Aiken, Jacob Webb $1.2 million. Tyler Wells $2.3 million. Again, these are all projections from MLB trade rumors. So theyโre not official, but itโs giving you an idea of players who are becoming more, more expensive. Now, some of the guys I just named, arenโt even necessarily guys that youโre going to want back next year. You know, like Keegan Aiken, Iโm guessing thereโs a decent chance heโs gonna be nontender. Maybe heโs outrighted to Norfolk, something like that. I donโt think thereโs a place for him in this bullpen. Certainly not on the opening day roster. So, you know, you kind of go through the list. You know, Ryan McKenna, you know, heโs a, not a fourth outfielder, heโs probably you know, a fifth or a sixth outfielder, heโs gonna be projected to make 740k Which isnโt a lot, but what does he really give you relative to guys that you have coming? So the point is of those 16 guys that are arbitration eligible, thereโs a solid percentage of those guys probably arenโt going to be back this right like on the Fred or
Nestor Aparicio 21:27
roleplayers right. But thatโs like for Austin Hays or Molins and say weโre gonna trade them for a pitcher to make room for cows or make room for curse that right.
Luke Jones 21:36
Well, and thatโs and thatโs where this is challenging and itโs a good challenge again, these are good problems to have right? Weโre not talking about scarcity of talent weโre talking about an abundance of talent and
Nestor Aparicio 21:47
we have no cost other than Chris Davis whatever heโs left on their their deferred money and right donโt have they donโt have dumb money they didnโt go dumb in two Givens. Right. That was last yearโs money. So thatโs, thatโs like obj this year for the Ravens itโs dumb money, but itโs a one year dumb money thing. Itโs not the same problem. Lamar would be or Ronnie Stanley or Marlon Humphrey would be Right exactly.
Luke Jones 22:09
Itโs kind of the old the old school of thought is thereโs no such thing as the bad one your contract even though yes, there are. You know, you mentioned Beckham making 15 million now the old
Nestor Aparicio 22:19
man. Yeah, thatโs another
Luke Jones 22:24
Yeah, yeah. But but Right. And on the free agent side. They have five free agents right now. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, Shintaro Fujinami, Aaron Hicks and Jack Flaherty. Iโm guessing none of those guys are gonna be back. You know, I like Kyle Gibson, but you gotta aim higher than that, you know, in the same way that Kyle Gibson was the attempt to aim higher from Jordan Lyles the year before so
Nestor Aparicio 22:44
Gibson they couldnโt even give him the ball with the season on the line. I mean, literally they give him the ball.
Luke Jones 22:51
I mean, he is what he is. Heโs a on a playoff club and we even saw this for the court by the Orioles standards by the end of the year on a playoff club. Heโs at best a fourth but in most cases a fifth starter or a long man out of the bullpen and I think where the Orioles stand going into the offseason with their starting rotation Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez at the top Mike Elias said the other day John means they his elbows fine like they think it was you know he had a little bit of a tired arm in the way that guys sometimes late in spring training get a little bit of a tired arm and then theyโre fine a week or two later that no concerns there. So John means and Dean Kramer who I think ideally Dean Kramer would be my fifth starter and ideally just because of the unknown of the health and and the fact that he hasnโt really pitched in nearly two full years other than a handful of starts yeah Iโd like John means to maybe be my number four starter so Iโm targeting whether itโs free agency or and I think this is a much bigger Avenue the more likely Avenue trade because you have all these pieces whether youโre talking about some veterans or whether youโre talking about trading a Colton Couser or trading a joey Ortiz whoโs a top 100 prospect or trading some other combination of guys. What Iโd really like to see them to do is acquire a at worst a number three legitimate number three starter acquire a legitimate top half of the rotation guy like Nathan ivaldi would have been like Jordan Montgomery would have been for them. You know, we saw this firsthand what the Rangers did. Rangers game watch what am I covered look how we pitched against the Astros yeah they won the opener the ALCS you know with a pitcher like that so I Thatโs Mike Elias priority number one for me is add someone that you project to be no worse than your number three starter if you do that. And then you have John means is your number four and your dean Kramer is your number five and then we can talk about someone like a Cade Povich you know whether heโs dealt or whether he You still in triple A to B to begin next year. You know we can talk about that. Because if you do that, Nesta, then that clears up Tyler wells to me to be in your bullpen moving forward and youโre going to need that because you donโt have Felix Batista. That, to me clears the deck for DL Hall to just become a late inning reliever which a lot of talent evaluators the last year or two kind of thought that might be the his best role anyway, maybe he becomes your Josh hater. You know, one of the bright spots, we didnโt talk about it too much because there werenโt many bright spots and there was so much disappointment do whole pitched his butt off in that division series. He pitched really well missed a lot of bats and did a nice job for them. So you know, you have those two with Cano add, add another bullpen piece, you know, whether itโs be a trade or via free agency, you know, go out there and certainly signed someone better than Michael Gibbons, which they attempt, you know, they made that attempt and it didnโt work out. happens, youโre gonna whip sometimes. But you know, if you do that on the pitching side, I think you have a pitching staff on paper. Now, health is always the great determining factor here. And spring training next year. Low key is going to be an anxious time because Grayson Rodriguez coming off of a career high in innings. Kyle, Brad is coming off a career high in headings, Dean Kramer coming off a career high in innings. That right there. A lot of times when pitchers have injury concerns for overuse and workload issues and things like that. A lot of times it doesnโt show up until the following spring. Now, I am not predicting that. Letโs be clear, this is not
Nestor Aparicio 26:32
the problems with that this year. Between means between Givens between tait I mean, there are other thereโs somebody else Iโm missing two, right. Somebody else was supposed to pitch a bunch this year and didnโt try I mean, they shut they shut wells down for for incentives. I mean, but they just get injured. If he mentioned 15 pitchers, five of them are going to be injured next year.
Luke Jones 26:55
Right. Right. Right. So but my point is just what I laid out, which was not my priorities there are acquiring a number three starter or better. And getting another high leverage bullpen arm, you know, to add to what I would plan wells and DL haul to be in your bullpen with Cano you know, and we can talk about whether you bring back CNL Perez, we can talk about Danny coulomb we can talk about Jacob Webb, you know, but but the point is, they theyโve got some work to do to their bullpen because Felix Batista is not coming through that bullpen door in 2024. Thatโs a spring of 25 reality for the Orioles at this point. So
Nestor Aparicio 27:34
you need to Fuji by the way.
Luke Jones 27:36
Heโs gone. I mean, you canโt. Heโs a free agent. I think if I had seen progress, like if he had started out shaky, really shaky, but then got better. But it was just this up and down. I mean, it was
Nestor Aparicio 27:52
on the postseason roster, and you canโt exactly itโs yet yeah, I mean, letโs face
Luke Jones 27:56
Nestor, Letโs call a spade a spade here. They put Brian Baker on their postseason roster, over Fujinami. Baker had pitched in the major leagues once since late July now, I think you could disagree with that call it personally I would rather see Cole Irvin than Brian Baker on the postseason roster, at least least he would have given you some length in game two, when you were down nine to two and, you know, had no real, pragmatic, practical chance of coming back. But the point is that they showed how little they told you exactly how they felt about him when he didnโt even make the postseason roster, because they had other guys at the back end of that bullpen. They didnโt trust that they took over him. So, you know, theyโve got some work to do. Itโs not this incredible mountain of work to do, but they have some work to do on that front. And then on the flip side, you know, with the offense, outfield and infield, you know, who are you holding on to who are the veterans that you value? You know, sometimes thereโs weโve talked about him for two or three offseasons now in terms of whether heโd be dealt, you know, that was a different conversation two years ago, of course, and we have
Nestor Aparicio 29:02
mountcastle is a year he talks about him to write about Yeah, yeah, but But
Luke Jones 29:07
you know, and Sandtown sometimes thereโs case youโre talking about a $12 million player this coming year, last year before free agency. Most teams even even like teams like the raise, you know, teams that hadnโt have been in that category. Theyโve looked at to do guys like that. But if youโre the Orioles if youโre me looking at the Orioles, if thereโs one area they need to get better with with their offense. They were middle of the pack and home runs last year. And if you look at this postseason, Phillyโs near the top and home runs, Astros near the top and home runs Texas near the top and home runs now Arizona is the weird, Cinderella outlier, right but look at the rest of the teams in the Division Series who didnโt make it through Atlanta near the top and homeruns. The Dodgers near the top and homeruns the Orioles they could stand to add had some home run pop now. Some of thatโs going to just come from improvement. I think Gunnar Henderson is going to hit over 30 home runs next year. But the left field cost them 20. home runs this year as a team on the right hand side. Yeah. And that well, and thatโs why you look at most of what theyโve drafted has been left handed.
Nestor Aparicio 30:16
And by the way, save their pitchers. 22 Sure, exactly. Thereโs right right, but the point, but theyโre not going to get a lot of homeruns because they play anyone games in a bar. Well,
Luke Jones 30:26
unless youโre unless youโre lefty, you know it left handed hitters hit homeruns at Camden Yards. Itโs still very Homer friendly for left handed hitting. Thatโs why look at most of the Orioles, young dads, you know, in their system, theyโre lefties for the most part, but that is something that I think they need to add. So thatโs where I am very reluctant to look at dealing Anthony Santander even if he might have he not might he definitely has more value than trying to trade Austin Hays for example. You know, heโs does have one more year club control. But Austin Hayes has also been a guy who is excellent in the first half of the season, and heโs worn down the last two years, you know, in the second half, also like him in left field. You do. But I guess my point is Iโm, as Iโve thought about it more if you would ask me this question in June, and I think I probably brought it up in passing a couple times. I probably said from a long term standpoint, theyโre probably the theyโd probably look to deal Santander. But can you subtract 30 home runs from this lineup right now as I just laid out? That that was where are they coming from deficiency for them? I mean, Gunnar. You tell me, Gunther is going to hit more. Great. Iโll sign off on that. If Westberg is there everyday third baseman or everyday second baseman depending on how they want to align their infield? Fine, Iโll sign up for him hitting more than he had, which he only had a couple but he did hit a lot of doubles this year. Jackson Holliday will be here at some point next year that will be more power than Adam Frazier. Letโs say well, they
Nestor Aparicio 31:51
look a curse that is a power hitter.
Luke Jones 31:53
Yeah, curse that. Iโm glad you brought him up. Because I, he should have been the first name I mentioned, because heโs the guy if heโs playing right field, or if heโs your pseudo regular DH, heโs probably going to be a guy that youโre going to be projecting a lot of power from. So itโs not as though they donโt have young guys that can do that. But do you want to subtract Santander from that formula? When when you know that recent history tells you especially in October, when youโre going up against elite pitching, you want to have some long ball ability? Because that is how thatโs the way that you quick, instantly change the game.
Nestor Aparicio 32:24
Castle into that if you get rid of mountcastle and Santander and the offseason. Yeah. And where where? Where is the power coming from? Unless youโre projecting gunner to hit 42 Next year, you know, right,
Luke Jones 32:36
right, exactly. So you know, and again, these are all good problems to have. They donโt have to trade these guys, but youโre trying to figure out, okay, who can we move on from that a little bit older, more expensive, might not have as high of a ceiling long term, to create an opportunity for this guy to come in? who is younger? Yeah, heโs cheaper. But more importantly, to the big picture of the baseball team and its quest to play October play deep in October is guys that have more upside long term? So you want to create that? I mean, in the same way that the Orioles? Yeah, theyโre not gonna go into into the spring with any ideas of Jorge Mateo playing at all for them. I mean, probably not gonna be on the roster. Why? Because, well, Jackson holiday, even if itโs not opening days, at some point going to be there. Itโs just gonna be a question of when and where is he going to play? Is he going to be there shortstop with Gunner playing third? Or is he going to be their second baseman with Gunner plan short? I mean, well, if
Nestor Aparicio 33:36
you take opening day, just opening day of this year, which wasnโt that long ago, letโs add the names into this right Couser Westberg curse that. Henderson was up and Iโm missing somebody. Thatโs
Luke Jones 33:51
all your Tโs was there for five minutes, and then they didnโt have luck. But like
Nestor Aparicio 33:55
so youโre saying, Okay, I love those guys. Their first round picks their core Orioles. Theyโre not platoon players anymore. Weโre gonna play them. Well, then youโre pretty much saying that mountcastle Santander and Matteo or you know what, theyโre gone. Theyโre Frasier, theyโre gone. Oh, all those guys would be gone. That makes all the sense in the world. I mean, these guys, and but and now Castle was the guy weโre always trying to get rid of. I donโt know. I tend to like him more. Some of these guys are like furniture for me now that theyโve become piled divers. Hayes mountcastle were Mullins were sitting around when these guys are losing 120 games with them. I think they smell different. Santander, two, I think they rule five. I think they smell different. Once theyโve marinated a couple of years here, where youโd be like, What do you know donโt get rid of donโt get rid of mountcastle Donโt get rid of Austin Aโs. Well, you want Couser to play you want Karstadt to play you want Westberg to play. Thereโs only nine spots in the lineup.
Luke Jones 35:00
Well, and this is where and for anyone listening, I am not saying that theyโre going to trade all their veterans. Iโm not saying that at all. Iโm saying youโve got to figure out who you want to keep, and who you want to trade from that entire pool. Now, thereโs, thereโs something to be said because of how they handled Joey Ortiz this year, that he, despite the fact that heโs a top 100 prospect, and he might have great value in the eyes of other teams. The Orioles might not love him as a player. And that might be the reason why he was stuck at triple A. And look, he put up great numbers at triple A, and he still has presumably, good value to other teams, that might be a guy you look to trade. In the case of Colton Couser. Look, I think heโs eventually going to hit I donโt think you should judge anyone on their first 65 plate appearances in the major leagues, or whatever it was, but he struggled right. And he certainly did not show an ability that he could play centerfield. So to me, that changes, you know how you might use Cedric Mullins, at least for the next 12 months, or 16 months or whatever it might be two years. So you might you can catch, there might be someone that you say, You know what, we love this guy, weโve developed them into this player who is ready to play in the Major Leagues. He is the former, you know, a former top five overall pick in the Major League draft. But you know what, he can be the centerpiece for us to go out and get that, that two years of club control top half of the rotation starting pitcher from another team, who is not at the same place in, you know, trying to win and contend and things of that nature.
Nestor Aparicio 36:34
He was the target back in July. I mean, I donโt know that changed anything last week, but maybe a year from next week, that if you I mean, you bring him in? Now youโre talking about you said you want to
Luke Jones 36:45
three? Worst I want to three,
Nestor Aparicio 36:49
thatโs an argument for him and Rodriguez and Bradish to say, well, you know, now that sounds like something that deal with next October for Houston or Texas or whoever you see. Sure. And
Luke Jones 37:02
and CCE is just an example weโre using, right? I mean, everyone understands that but but thatโs where you might look at it and say, Okay, Iโm not going to trade a veteran, but Colton Couser might be the guy I trade in that spot. And he might be the guy along with a couple other lesser prospects, that goes out and gets me a legitimate number two or number three starter that I can put in the top three with with Rodriguez and Bradish. And then then Iโve got a rotation that looks more legitimate with the understanding that Bradish and Rodriguez, while it certainly didnโt go well for Grayson, but they have a postseason start under their belt now, they now know what itโs like to pitch with that crowd noise and to go up against the league competition and know that the lights are bright. I mean, thatโs part of it. Now, when this team gets back to October, presumably, whether itโs next October, the year after that, whenever I mean, you never know there are no guarantees. These are all guys who have some experience now. Now it was failure. But you learn from failure, right? I mean, I made mention before this whole thing even started that, you know, the Braves, the Astros, the Dodgers, all these teams in recent years, none of them want on their first try. So thatโs where the Orioles are trying to learn. You know, theyโre theyโre ticked off, little embarrassed. But now itโs a case of how do you take the next step and what we just laid out, which is, oh, my goodness, itโs a huge pool of players, whether youโre talking about that, and guys that are in the majors or prospects. And you know, for Mike Elias, heโs got to, heโs got to strike the right balance here. You donโt want to trade too many veterans to the point where you take a step back, because development is not linear. But at the same time, you donโt want to be in a position where youโre just hurting guys, a triple A and Kyle sours is a great example of this this Kyle sours have as much trade value now as he would have had 18 months ago. No, because, you know, he, he failed in some small sample sizes for the Orioles. And, you know, heโs kind of just Waller to triple A and he hasnโt been bad at triple A. But you know, heโs a guy that if you traded him a year ago, would have had a little more value than he has now. Most likely. So the point is, you know that theyโve got some challenging decisions to make. And I donโt say that in a doom and gloom way. Itโs just the reality of what can you do to shape this roster, improve it and maximize the value of the players that you have? Weโve talked in these terms for years with Eric Acosta, that every player is an asset, right? Every player is a chip, every player has value attached to him. The Orioles are the same way with the 26 guys that played in the postseason and everyone else in their organization. So Mike Elias is challenged this offseason is trying to balance taking the next step and not wanting you know, you donโt want to trade veterans and take a step back with young guys, but at the same time understanding that you want to do what you can to take the steps forward. And that might involve trading a veteran or two. And it might involve trading a couple prospects here and there to go out and land a number three starting pitcher or number two starting pitcher to go out and land, a guy that you can pencil went into the eighth or ninth inning of your bullpen and feel great about him to maybe even go out and land another bat that weโre not even talking about now, because he recognizes what I did in saying, You know what, we might need a little more homerun power, and maybe weโre gonna trade Anthony Santander, but you know what, weโre gonna go get this guy from this team as part of another trade, who has 35 homerun potential to add to the number four number five spot in our lineup. So there are many ways to roster build. And in the case of Mike Elias, heโs been in this build and ad phase for the better part of five years now. But heโs now much more in the phase of how are we augmenting? How are we tweaking? How are we changing things with the idea of getting better in the long term? And itโs gonna be interesting to see how he does with this because this is, you know, we talked about this at the trade deadline a little bit. We talked about it a little bit last winter, but he is in a much different phase now as a general manager, and heโs learning just like everyone else, you know, coaches and players learn executives learn as well. And heโs at a point now where, okay, you had a 101 win ballclub that maybe played a little bit over its head, but they were regardless, they were darn good. You know, I mean, donโt take that away from them just because of what happened in the Division Series. But now the question is, how do you tweak how do you augment How do you manage 16 guys, who are arbitration eligible? How do you go out and approach free agency to go see if you can land, you know, maybe not a big fish, but letโs say a medium sized fish after landing small fish the last few years in free agency. So you know, thatโs thatโs part of it. And itโs gonna be interesting. It you know, a lot of this happens behind closed doors because the Orioles are so tight lipped on the baseball operation side. And baseballโs offseason, as you laid out is different inherently than the NFL where everything isnโt a big event. But itโs going to be fascinating. Oh, yeah, Iโd be remiss if I didnโt mention at least in passing that over the weekend, you know, the Orioles also dealt with what up and coming organizations deal with they lost Brad selek, their director of draft operations, heโs heading to the nationals. I donโt think it crushes them. But certainly a good person, you know, someone that had been one of the, you know, one of the rare holdovers from the do cat era who had actually stuck around and, you know, was integral with their drafts over the last four or five years. So, you know, there are other good people that I donโt think theyโre going to miss a beat but that right there is also a reminder of part of this when you get good when you build something like the Oreos are building. Other teams take notice and the Nationals took notice and they they hire away Bradโs see like over the weekend. So yeah, thatโs just something else to keep in the back of your mind as the Orioles move forward in this quest to get better and to play deeper in October next year.
Nestor Aparicio 43:04
He is Luke Jones. Heโs Baltimore Luke you can find him in Owings Mills. He will not be talking baseball except when I make him talk baseball or tennis makes me talk baseball. Heโs heโs giving it up. For for October here. Detroit Lions coming to town weโre taking the Maryland crabcake tour back out on the road, presented by our friends at the Maryland lottery get some ravens scratch off winners up at a Hollywood casino on Sunday, as well as on Friday over at the fountain and drug city. Luke joined us along with my longtime science companion at Dundalk, high and Sparrows Point George Shula and as well as my son, I stopped by to talk about old fashions and proper cocktails and milkshakes at the fountain that drug said youโll hear that all week long. We are rallying our crabcake tour as well as our 25th anniversary here. I promise Iโll get back to the countdown from 23 down. Itโs all brought to you by our friends at curio wellness and Farr and daughter. Important to be on the WNS D tech service brought to you by Coons, Baltimore for Dennisโs on respite this week. Heโll be back next week. But you can still get over security Boulevard make that happen anytime get on the tech service to get breaking news and if that trade happens with that Mike allies moment happens in November or December youโll be the first to get it. In the meantime, we pine away and watch the Houston Astros take on the Texas Rangers and await the Detroit Lions I am Nestor. He is Luke we are wn st am 1570, Towson Baltimore, celebrating 25 years of madness and we never stop talking Baltimore positive