It’s been almost a year since Mike Elias acquired pitcher Trevor Rogers from the Miami Marlins in a young summer deal and his emergence this month has been quite a mixed bag but Luke Jones and Nestor certainly see the possibilities after a complete effort in a 6-0 win over the Texas Rangers at scorching Oriole Park at Camden Yards. And this Jackson Holliday kid can play a little, too!
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ recent performance, highlighting Trevor Rogers’ impressive eight-inning shutout against Texas in 101-degree heat. Rogers, who had a career-high velocity of 93-94 mph, has shown significant improvement since his acquisition last year. They also touched on Jackson Holiday’s promising season, with 22 home runs and a .265 batting average. Despite the team’s current 11-34 record, they emphasized the importance of developing young talent like Holiday and Rogers for future success. The conversation also included plans for upcoming events and shows, including a crab cake tour and a 27th anniversary celebration.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles win, Trevor Rogers, Jackson Holiday, pitching performance, all-star potential, trade deadline, young talent, hot weather, Camden Yards, baseball strategy, future prospects, injury concerns, team progress, fan engagement, crab cake tour.
SPEAKERS
8
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We are Baltimore, positively into a hot stretch around here. And I don’t mean for the Orioles, at this point, I have the steamy sun behind me in our YouTube online. We’re going to be on Thursday at steamy because they steam crabs there. Readers, crab house will be there on Thursday afternoon. And I have, I put together quite a crab cake tour run here the next couple of weeks, because we got great guests coming Thursday. We’re going to be a deepest squales on July 8. I’m assuming it’s going to be 104 we’re going to be down at Canton, at the Italian market. I mean, there are all sorts of rumors about this thing. I mean, Pete, karenge, Dan Rodricks, Joe Giordano, it’s going to be something. Might have cold cuts before lunchtime, if I do that the right way, probably pasta down at the squales. So we’re moving the show around. They have a crab cake there as well. It’s all brought to you by the Maryland lottery. We have the Back to the Future scratch offs. On Thursday, we’ll be up in Reisterstown. We’re going to wish everybody a great Fourth. Then we’re going to do two shows next week. After that, we’re going to be also at at 1623, in Eldersburg, and we’re going to be at Costas and Timonium on the 10th of July. And everybody’s lining up for that. They’re like, Costas Timonium, I want to be there. I’m like, don’t bring your crab mallet. They don’t have crabs at the Costa stemonium. You gotta get the Dundalk to get that. This guy and I have had beverages and food and all sorts of places, and the the Orioles are home now. I hope you’re hydrating appropriately out there at Oriole Park, at Camden Yards. It I don’t know what the hottest day I’ve ever been out there. I i can tell you this black jack McDowell pitched in black in 1993 right before the all star game. I remember because I knew Jack pretty well. That was the hottest game I remember. I mean, I remember it being like, you know, 99 a game time, whatever. I don’t know how many times it’s been triple digits or whatever. I don’t go to games anymore. Ask Greg Bader and Mark fine if you see them. Mr. Rubenstein about why you have a seat and I don’t. But on a hot night, I should ask you, how hot was it? Luke Jones, at it looked really hot. It looked it looked unpleasant. It looks like the next couple are going to be
Luke Jones 02:08
just as unpleasant. It was hot. There’s no question it was hot, but no AC
Nestor Aparicio 02:13
in the club level, in that new the No The New Jim Henneman press box, though, just like Jim tough, no AC,
8Luke Jones 02:19
right? The I assume the new press box will, which will be slightly towards the third base side, and certainly you’ll appreciate it
Nestor Aparicio 02:26
on a put air conditioning in the new press spot. I doubt that. I don’t know. I’m going to argue that. Why I think it’s
Luke Jones 02:32
going to be enclosed. If it’s going to be enclosed, it’s definitely gonna have air conditioning. I mean, come on. Well,
Nestor Aparicio 02:39
8they do have Oriole employees sitting in there, so they’re trying to take care of their own I mean, of their own. I’m just thinking, Okay, go ahead, but
Luke Jones 02:45
it was hot. And according to the Orioles, the last time it was 100 degrees at Camden Yards for a first pitch. It was September 29 2012 against Cleveland, also 100 degrees, as I just said. So it was definitely warm, but I’ll say this didn’t seem to bother Trevor Rogers too much, who turned in best start of the year for the Orioles, certainly the longest start of the year. You know, eight shutout innings career high for him. He had the really good start at Fenway, and he sandwiched those two starts with whatever that was against Tampa Bay last week. So was good to see him do what he did, the velocity he carried that well. I mean, I think that’s been the biggest thing that’s kind of stood out about him. In 2025 compared to when the Orioles acquired him at the trade deadline last year, he was around 89 last year. Not impressive. The stuff wasn’t playing very well, to the point where the Orioles sent him down after what, four starts, but he was still hitting 9394 in the seventh and eighth inning on Monday night. So that was good to see fully acknowledging the Rangers don’t exactly have a good offense. You know, this is a far cry from the production that the World Series champions of two years ago had, but he still navigated that lineup very effectively, and was nice to see him rebound from that lousy outing that he had against the rays where, you know, he gets an eight nothing lead, and, you know, Tony mancellina talked about it a little bit. Was it a case of someone who’s desperate to stay in the major leagues was pressing and nibbling and trying to be too fine with an eight nothing lead, and that really came back and bit him. Or was, you know, what was it just a matter of, you know, settling in and pitching like he’s capable of pitching. I mean, we saw this guy be an all star for the Miami Marlins four years ago. I get it. It’s four years ago. I’m not saying he’s going to be an all star pitcher now, but you’d like to think that there’s some middle ground here, that he can at least be a useful piece for the Orioles.
Nestor Aparicio 04:52
Gives you two starts like he’s given, you forget the bad, right? When you get two good starts like this, you’re looking for that. Yeah, every time out. I mean, this is, you know, and look, I don’t think Elias is an idiot. I’m not that guy. I’m not the guy spa. That’s the guy down at 1057, that’s lost his mind. You know that Elias doesn’t know baseball, and, like, I didn’t want to hear that. But I think when it comes to pitching for guys arms falling off and guys being unavailable, signing a pitcher for money, trading for a pitcher with prospects that were very middling in the case of Stowers and Connor Norby, when they were given away, and we had other players and holidays fine, and whatever pitching can make you look really stupid, right? I mean, very, very quickly. I mean, Mike Elias has gotten really dumb, really dumb because Batista wells Bradish. I mean, he looks smart because he didn’t sign burns and his arm fell off. So like when you trade for a guy and the guy’s not right, he’s not healthy and he can’t pitch. It takes Mike Elias 10 months, 11 months to wait for a trade to point and say, you guys been calling me stupid about that guy. That guy’s capable of that. That’s all I mean. So today I’m not here to praise Elias one way or another. Sure, saying it’s really, that’s really tough business you’re going to get into be like Eric, asking Eric to cost about drafting wide receivers, you know, he would say, you know, what else goes into that the whole offensive line holding off and a quarterback that can deliver the ball and and a half back that can pick up a block and like all of that has to happen for wide receiver to be successful. So Eric to Costa got shat upon for a long time, and Ozzie before that. About the wide receiver thing, the pitching thing. In baseball, you can get it right and get it wrong. I mean, the Arizona Diamondbacks got it right. They identified an ace. They paid him, they brought him in. He’s injured that, you know. He got it right last year when he brought burns in, even if burns arm fell off. So, I mean, I think identifying guys who have stuff, talent, ability, success, that doesn’t mean anything about tomorrow morning for pitching in all of sports. Pitching,
Luke Jones 07:12
yeah, I mean, it’s certainly difficult and, and you’re right. I mean, this isn’t to suggest that the Orioles suddenly won the trade after everyone thought they lost the trade. I mean, who knows. And I’ll also say for as crazy, productive and good that Kyle Stowers was the first couple of months of the season. Look at what he’s been in June now. Look at what Connor norby’s been in June. And that doesn’t mean those guys stink now, and that the Orioles were made the better, better side of the trade here, but it just speaks to it’s a really difficult evaluation, especially on the pitching side. And in the case of Rogers, we’re going to see what he looks like his next time out. If he gets lit up this weekend and gets knocked around them by the rays again, then we’re going to be talking about him in a different context. But on Monday night, he threw strikes. I thought he the change up, establishing that early on was big for him. When you’re facing a lineup with nine right handed bats. He did that. But, I mean, I think the big thing that just stands out is the stuff’s a lot better than it was last August, when he arrived and, you know, he had okay numbers for the Marlins. Remember, he got off to a bad start, and then he had a run of before the Orioles acquired him. I think he had been pretty good statistically, anyway, over his last eight starts with the Marlins, but
8Nestor Aparicio 08:32
he feels fit and healthy when they brought him in. They brought him in to pitch in a pennant race. Yeah,
Luke Jones 08:36
right. And he just wasn’t that. I mean, the stuff was a far cry. I mean, it was a shell. He was a shell of what he had been in 2021 when, you know, he was averaging more than a strikeout per inning. You know, he was a, I think he had a two six era. I mean, that was his rookie year. He was second in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 21 so I think the Orioles said, okay, even if maybe that was a little bit of a fluke, that he was that great as a rookie. That shows there’s ability in there, that we can acquire this guy, make a couple tweaks and think that he can be, I don’t know, a back half of the rotation, starter for us, you know? I mean, not an ace or anything.
Nestor Aparicio 09:16
Talked about club control when he got him Sure. I mean, that was something that he would would pitch in 2025 26
Luke Jones 09:22
8right? Oh, no question. I mean, that’s that was obviously a big part of it. I mean, the one thing that we talked about, whether you like the trade deadline moves or not, was they acquired Zach Eflin with the idea that it wasn’t just for last August and September. They had them for 2025 Well, the rental was burns. Burns was the rental exactly, but, but their deadline moves last year again, whether you like them or not, and clearly, there was plenty to dislike about what they did at the trade deadline last year, when it was Eflin Dominguez, Gregory Soto, there was also an eye toward 2025 with those moves. So
Nestor Aparicio 09:58
for better and worse, right? Exactly, all the. These cases, but exactly it replenished their pitching at the deadline with current major league pitchers, which is something that we have beaten the snot out of them, because they haven’t drafted any of them. So they have to get them from other places, and they have to give up to get that and what they gave up was something they couldn’t use for a pitcher that they believe would be a contributor. I don’t think anybody thought he’s going to be their number two starter, and that they’re going to have to give him $80,000,000.02 years from now to pitch for three more years. But that’ll be a good problem to have if he pitches that Well, if he’s capable of what he did in Miami a couple of years ago, and certainly based on Monday night and 101 degree night, if you can do it there, you know, I guess. I mean, I, you know. And what else? What do they got to lose their last place team at this point. Everybody else is banged up and injured. He’s going out and taking the hill now two and a third with nine hits and 75 pitches, you know, walking everybody, like all of that, that’s not going to play, but we’ll see that again, I’m sure, right? I mean, I, you know, I think maybe one of the things with this, dudes like a Baldo Jimenez, they’ll just be inconsistent,
Luke Jones 11:10
yeah. I mean, a lot of pitchers are like that, right? So, so we’re going to see how he fares and his next time out. And, you know, again, I thought Tony mancellino had a pretty interesting perspective in kind of sizing up what Trevor Rogers did at Fenway back in May, right? I mean, that that kind of jump started the Orioles being on this stretch that they’re on where you know that they’ve been better over the last month, right? I mean, it kind of started with a Trevor Rogers pitching the way he did in the night cap of that double header at Fenway. He goes back down, comes back up. Last week, he’s he’s staked to an eight nothing lead. And mancellino, I thought he it was a very honest assessment of what you kind of want from a pitcher. When your team jumps out to an eight nothing lead, you want that guy to go six innings, even if he ends up giving up four runs in the process. He gives you six innings. He maintains a lead. He turns it over to the bullpen late, and you still have a four run lead like you’ll take that. You’ll take that 10 times out of 10, especially with an unproven pitcher. But instead, Trevor Rogers being the guy that, at this point, is fighting for his major league life in terms of not that he’s going to be released tomorrow or anything like that, but in terms of trying to stay in the majors. So he was staked to an eight nothing lead. And tried to be way too fine, tried to be way too perfect, tried to be excellent, to the point where he’s thinking, Oh, the Orioles, you know, I need to stay right. I don’t want to be optioned back to Norfolk. And sometimes that can be good, sometimes that can blow up in your face, and it blew up in his face, and the Orioles ended up losing as a result, you know, obviously a disastrous loss on the road trip. But, you know, he came out on Monday night. Like I said, I think getting some change up, you know, getting a little he did get a lot of swing and miss with the change up, but I think that was a pitch that was effective enough for him. When you’re a lefty facing a lineup full of right handed bats, you’ve got to have something that’s going to play that you can then, you know, you mix in both your fastballs and your sweeper. And he did that. It wasn’t, it wasn’t this dominant performance in terms of, like, blowing hitters away all night, but it was very, you know, it was efficient, obviously, when you go eight innings and he kept them off balanced. There was not a whole lot of hard contact. You know, a couple balls squared up here and there, but, you know, he, I mean three hits over eight innings, right? I mean four strikeouts, that’s that’s not a lot, but he got enough swing and miss. And I think he really Mitch mixed his pitches. I thought the sequencing was good. He was very complimentary of Chadwick Trump behind the plate. You know, for whatever that’s worth, you know, it’s nice to see that you have a battery that you know isn’t necessarily overly familiar with each other, in the sense that they’ve played together three years or anything like that. But it worked. And like I said, it also helps that the rangers have one of the worst offenses in baseball. I mean, they’re they’ve been more disappointing offensively than the Orioles, even quick to
Nestor Aparicio 14:06
swing too. By the way, you get a game over two hours and seven minutes, it
8Luke Jones 14:10
happens, right? And you and everyone who’s there in person is glad when it’s two hours eight minutes, with how hot it was. But again, good performance for him. Great to see it for the Orioles. You know what it what it means is, it’s another option, right until he goes out and struggles his next time out, right? I mean, you just, you’re, you’re always, you’re, yeah, you’re only as good as your next time out. So that’s going to be the challenge for him. But hey, eight shut out innings for anyone you know, anyone in this rotation, you’ll, you’ll gladly take that. And, you know, I haven’t had a chance to talk to him a whole lot, because, I mean, he hasn’t been on the major league roster much, right? Remember, four starts last year and then optioned. He was hurt during spring training and got up, you know, had a late start to the season. So it’s not as though we’ve seen him in. Baltimore a whole lot, but he seems like a guy that really wants to do well. Seems like a guy that has acknowledged that what happened to him last year and over the off season and all that he acknowledged it shook his confidence. So it’s good to see him back in a place where he seems he’s in a much better place physically, because the stuff looks way better, and now he’s getting an opportunity. And you know, it’s been two really good starts and a bad start. But you know, you kind of look at the net result, it’s a one, six era over three starts, and the two games he pitched, well, the Orioles won, so you’ll gladly take that, even if, yeah, he might still be prone to a clunker here and there.
Nestor Aparicio 15:43
Well, we’ll say, remember the night he blew the eighth to nothing later, remember the night that he pitched eight innings on 101 degree night? So Luke Jones is here, and by the way, I did look up the date, because the internet gives, not just AI, but it gives the date was July 11, 1993 and this is the hottest game I remember attending a Camden Yards, the Orioles lost 11 to five the Chicago White Sox. What a lineup, though. Like I’m looking at this. It was 95 at game time, by the way. So it was only 95 it was on July. It was right before the all star game. Was the day before Juan Gonzalez and Ken Griffey were hitting the warehouse and hitting the second deck, and Greg B Genie was throwing juice baseballs at those guys back in the day. But that particular day, I looked at the lineup and I’m like, I thought was like a nothing game. And I do remember I was sitting on a bunch of tickets in the outfield for that game. I was I’ve been on the radio a year and a half, and David cope was the Orioles marketing guy, and he given me some tickets to give away in contest during the course of the year. And I had tickets for that day because it was a big thing before the it was All Star Weekend. You could come down and go to Fan Fest. I’m sure you did that with your father at some point that weekend, because everybody did I did it with my kid. But how about this lineup for the White Sox? You ready for this? You’ll remember the Oriole lineup easily. Steve Sachs, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas, Ellis Burks, Robin, Ventura, Bo Jackson. Was gonna say Bo Jackson was on that. Bo Jackson was a lance Johnson, Ron karka Weiss, Ozzy Guillen, and I told you, Jack McDowell started that game. I remember that. And Roberto Hernandez, who later elbowed Cal Ripken in the nose at the All Star game in Chicago. Right? Two years later, three years later, Carol Baines was in that game. Harold Reynolds, Mark McLemore, Mike Devereaux, Harold Baines, Cal Ripken, Chris hoyles, my dear friend, David Segui Brady Anderson and Tim Hewlett, one of the real good dudes, Jamie Moyer made the start there, the first of many. Jim Poole Todd fro, worth the late great Jim Poole and Todd fro, if you lost both of them. Brad Pennington, my pal and otter. Greg Olsen, came in. So there’s your that was the hottest day I remember. And I’m telling you, the White Sox were wearing those black jerseys. Yeah, it made me feel hotter just watching them wear those black jerseys at that time.
Luke Jones 17:59
No question about it, no question. But the heat’s the story this week. I mean, it’s
Nestor Aparicio 18:03
8going to be, it’s going to be just as bad on Tuesday, just as bad on Wednesday. We sort of knew this going in last week. I didn’t think that would play faster baseball. I thought that would make for more ball going over the fence, kind of thing. It clearly didn’t on on Monday night so far. But I don’t know that we see the ballpark play hot like this, or how it plays, because it’s not 100 degrees very often around here, it isn’t, even though Bucha Walter made some allegations on Sunday about how soupy Baltimore could be.
Luke Jones 18:31
I mean, it’s it’s there’s hot there, there’s Baltimore hot, and then there’s this, right? I mean, as I was driving, driving home on the JFX, my car thermo, and this was 10 o’clock on Monday night, you know, 945, whatever it was. But it was on the JFX, my car thermometer still said like 93 at that point, right? I mean, you’re talking about late at night, and you’re still in the mid 90s, so it was definitely hot. And when it’s that hot, and what, I guess, the dew point, and, you know, the humidity, all of that combined, it can get to a point where it’s the air is so hot that the ball might not travel quite as well as, like when it’s, I don’t know, 95 you know, conventional hot. 93 conventional hot. But I’ll say this. I mean, Jackson holiday got, got into well, and, you know, we saw him have a big night, a three run homer drove in another run. I mean, four RBIs for him. And I thought that my other takeaway, and tis the season all star voting, right? I mean, Ryan o’hearns leading a D, H, and Jackson holiday is right there at second base, but Tony Mancell, know, was asked about the potential for Jackson holiday to be an all star. And I thought he gave a really interesting answer. He was not dismissive of it, but not as worried about the all star element. And let me pull up his quote, because, I mean, this was verbatim. This was not him, you know, alluding to this, this was literally what he said. When asked about Jackson holiday potentially going to the All Star game, he says, quote, when I look at Jackson, I’m not concerned about the all star thing right now, it’s like, how do we get this kid to be one of the top five players in the game by 2027 that’s how I look at Jackson. Now you can look at that one of two ways. You can say, Wow, thanks for not putting too much pressure on the kid or anything. Or you can look at it through the lens of that’s how much they think of this guy, and that’s how excited they are about the improvement he’s made from his age 20 season, which Let’s all call a spade a spade. He was, he wasn’t ready. Certainly wasn’t ready. In April, management was in Oregon State at that point in his life, right? Of course. I mean, I mean, Gunner Henderson at age 20, he would have been what at buoy at that point in time. I mean, you know, and gunner, did you know? Gunner did make his debut at 21 so well,
Nestor Aparicio 20:53
we all wanted to give ruchman the money when it was John Angelos is and then when money bags bought the team, we’re like, want to give the money to gunner Henderson, because he’s gonna hit 35 home runs. You think cows are going to hit the ball? I think Westberg is going to hit the ball holiday might be the best. Is going to be the guy that’s going to get 400 million maybe, maybe the guy that they, that they get into, I don’t know. They’re all one ones. They’re all one somethings. They’re all and Henderson’s not even one of those guys. He was the next version of that. He, I mean, he wasn’t cursed at her cows or on draft day, at least, right? Because of his age, and we have lost sight of all of this quality talent in regard to the last place, nature of this ball club over the last three months, because we were kissing all of their asses in Sarasota on March 15. You and I are up Toronto. I’m bleeding from the leg, eating egg sandwiches, freezing our ass off up there. We had no thought that. We had thought that holiday might make it, might not make it. We didn’t know the team wasn’t going to make it this year. The team hasn’t made it this year to post, really,
Luke Jones 21:54
yeah. I mean, there’s still 10 games under 500 right? I mean, they’re in a spot now. And I wrote about this at Baltimore positive.com I mean, this is they have six series, including this series against the Rangers. They have six series to go into the all star break. They entered Monday night, 11 games under 500 I view it through the lens of, if you want to have have any discussion or nuance about the trade deadline, to me, you need to go 12 and six and be at worst. At worst, five games under 500 at the All Star break, right then it’s like, okay, you’ve got third, I think they have 14 games after
8Nestor Aparicio 22:32
that, and they’re showing progress. Then you’re 13 over since the bottom where
Luke Jones 22:36
exactly, exactly. So, so that’s where we are right now. Essentially, you need to win each of these six series until they point
Nestor Aparicio 22:43
to cows, or you’re going to point to Westberg, you’re going to point to Trevor Rogers. You’re going to point to the guys that weren’t around in April and say, how are they performing now? And that’s where you know, F Lynn’s a concern right now? Sure. I mean, they have some concerns here every other day, not the Trevor Rogers is a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination. It feels like Kramer takes the ball every fifth day. That’s good, much more than Grayson Rodriguez could say. But I’m with you. I mean this, you and I get at this every single morning. We come at it. I get a cup of Zeke’s coffee, and we sit here and go at it for half an hour, 45 minutes, and they’ve really not, you know, the winning streak aside, they haven’t really shown any signs of real life that there’s momentum for any of this. And momentum comes when you get pitching. I mean that, I’ll just say that out loud. Momentum doesn’t come when you’re winning 11 to nine every night, like they dream this up back in March. Momentum comes when you get quality pitching.
Luke Jones 23:42
8Well, it’s quality pitching, but, but they also need to swing the bats the way that they were designed to. And look how much of that is Mike Elias, how much of that is the young players, how much of that is coaching, yes, yes to all of it, right? I mean, it, it can be more than one thing, but yeah, you kind of look at first of all, they are 18 and 10 since they started 16 and 34 that’s a good record, right? I mean, we all would acknowledge they played better over the last month. There’s no question about that. But when you start to break it down, they had the six game winning streak since the six game winning streak, I think they’re nine and eight. I believe that kind of speaks to you were hoping that the six game winning streak would be the what would really catapult them to really go on an extended tear, and it’s been okay since then, right? I mean, nine and eight is nothing to to nothing to panic over, or nothing to say you’re terrible, but it also isn’t suggesting that you’re this juggernaut that’s ready to explode. And I think that’s where we, most of us, are at this point, when I’m still talking in terms of what they need to do by the all star break. Does that mean I am I’m expecting that. Does that mean I’m predicting that’s going to happen? No, I’m trying to present what the pathway is for them to not be a seller at the trade deadline. Do I think they’re going to be a seller at the trade deadline? Yeah. But. I’m guessing they’re probably not going to go 12 and six over or I guess at this point now 11 and six.
Nestor Aparicio 25:05
Well, that’s your point. If they’re eight under 500 or six under 500 or whatever, at the All Star breaker four, I mean, whatever it is, and they become a seller, expect it to get worse, right as a season, as a season for wherever it is. If you start getting rid of Sugano, getting rid of Ethel, and because they things around. I mean, that’s where this is a really weirdly complex season for them, because they’ve, I’ve been on the air 35 years. They haven’t had a lot of years like this, because, you know what, in 35 years of doing this, their talent has always been dog shit. I mean, like, literally, they’ve never had young talent to look at. How’s next year going to be held. I mean, when they had Ripken and Alomar and Paul mayor, that’s a different animal when you stink at the All Star break. But they haven’t had upside like this. You know, you could talk about Machado, maybe, or that yes for a minute. That era, that
Luke Jones 25:54
era, yes, because you had Machado. You had Jonathan scope, Matt weeders was supposed to be the next Johnny Bench. You had Nick marques established at that point, you had Adam Jones. So they had it was it as long of a window as you would have liked? No, of course not. But they had that. What? Even from about 2009 we started talking in those terms, they had the cavalry, whether it panned out or not. But I don’t
Nestor Aparicio 26:15
know man in watchmen and in Anderson and in holiday, it feels like the fame kind of talent. I don’t know that they that anybody ever looked at Adam Jones that way. I think we looked at leaders that way for a minute and a half. I know looked at Mark ACUs that way. I think that we thought marques could be a nice player, but I don’t think any of them showed this top five player in the game. Mike Trout
8Luke Jones 26:40
did. Machado definitely did. And again, it’s because of the age, right? I mean, you’re talking about when someone comes up at age 20 or 21 which is why Jackson holiday and, to a lesser extent, but still, because he’s still only 23 gunner Henderson. I mean, we think about gunner Henderson in these terms that that he’s this established guy now, and has been here three years. He’s still, you know, he’s getting ready to turn 24 right? I mean, he’s still young. He’s still, uh, I don’t want to say ascending in terms of like that. He’s going to be better than he was the first half of last year, when he was at his best. But he’s still a player who is still trying to get better against left handed pitching, still trying to play a more, a steadier shortstop, right? Trying to determine if he’s going to stay at shortstop long term, you know, in terms of, say, five years from.
Nestor Aparicio 27:28
That’s the weird part about holidays, making it look easy all of a sudden, right? I mean, yeah, the game looks easier for Jackson holiday right now.
Luke Jones 27:34
I mean, he’s, he’s having a really solid and it’s not as though he has these unbelievable numbers where you say, oh my gosh, this, but he’s playing really well, right? I mean, he’s been steady. I mean, man, Selena, the other thing that he had to say in the post game was he just kind of said, look, I think I’m still, I’m leaving Jackson holiday in the lead off spot, you know, I just want him. I think he’s going to profile to be that kind of player, and we don’t want to mess with him, and we want him to hit lead off. He, He made mention how, what? Recently, I guess they dropped him down to sixth. I guess it was when they it was when they faced Max, freed right or No, maybe it was scuba. He might have still hit lead off against Max. My dominant lefties are running together here, as I’m trying to assess this. But the point is, he even said that, you know, even against lefties, he just, he feels compelled to just leave them in the leadoff spot. So
Nestor Aparicio 28:23
8how do we project on him? He’s going to hit 22 home runs, right? I mean, holiday he’s going to hit 22 room runs. He’s hitting 265 right? Now, let’s just, I think he’ll be a 280 hitter. I think he’ll be a 300 hitter. I mean, you know, 2027 right? What is that projection? Then, I don’t know, you project and hit more than 20 home runs, but, man, he’s got torque on, you know, I got Fred Lynn coming on this week, and, you know, he’s, he this, this guy’s got a Joe Morgan kind of movement about him, with quick twitch and and being able to hit the ball, because he’s not a big guy, Jackson holiday, right?
Luke Jones 29:00
I mean, he certainly has put muscle on. But, yeah, I mean, he’s not this six foot four, you know, he’s not Cal Ripken, he’s not Kobe mayo, in terms of just being like a really huge guy. But I think, you know, for me, a couple things really stand out, I mean, and obviously the power is on the come and you know he’s going to hit home runs. Is he going to become a 40 home run guy? I don’t really see that necessarily. Home runs, doubles, a couple of triples. I think that’s what you look at. It could be a 2025, home run guy with 40 or 45 doubles. I mean, I mean, that’s, that’s a serious profile right there, especially for a second baseman,
Nestor Aparicio 29:36
probably going to steal 20 base. But I think you know the stole he has stolen
Luke Jones 29:40
some bases, but he doesn’t have a very good percentage. You know, when you look at his percentage, it’s right around 50% you want to be up at 80% if you’re going to be a regular base stealer, because if it’s anything less than that, then it’s a losing proposition. You’re actually hurting your team.
8Nestor Aparicio 29:54
Well, stealing bases includes getting walks and singles to get the first, I think, in a walk a lot. Well And see,
Luke Jones 30:01
that’s what’s interesting for me. That’s the next step for him. He is known for having a great eye. I think you would find that he doesn’t chase a whole lot, like you look at his profile, and you would say, oh, okay, well, he’s hitting 265 but his own base percentage is only 313, so it tells you, right there, without looking at the raw numbers that he’s not walking a whole lot, but I think you would also look and say, but he doesn’t chase a ton, right? He’s He’s not necessarily, he’s swung at the first pitch a lot, but generally speaking, he’s been very effective doing that. It’s not as though he’s chasing and swinging at pitches out of the strike zone on the first pitch. So I think what you’re seeing here, and this is what happens with young players you have, you will find so many different minor league hitters have great on base percentage, even guys that don’t really profile as serious prospects because they have they do have a good eye, and they’re facing pitching in the minor leagues that doesn’t have the command that major league pitching has. You get to the major leagues, and if you don’t hit the ball with authority, and you don’t have a profile, that’s going to translate to being a bona fide Major League hitter, they’re not going to respect you. They’re going to come right at you. They’re going to eat you alive. I mean, and I don’t want to pick on this guy, because there’s no reason to I don’t. I don’t have an ax to grind here, but Taryn Barbara is an example of this. Go, look at his early minor league numbers. I mean, he had a huge on base percentage problem is, doesn’t have any thump in his bat. So he gets to the major leagues, or even, you know, gets to triple A, let’s say, but especially the majors, when he’s been here, albeit in a limited sample, pitchers just come right at him. They don’t, there’s no fear so that on base skill that you have. I mean, they’re, just coming right after you, you know. And you can, you can try to work the count and all you want, but then you’re, you’re down. Oh, one, you’re, you’re down. One, two, a whole lot so, and I think that was Jackson holiday last year. Now that you’re seeing him establish himself as someone who has a bona fide, serious hit tool, that I think you’re going to see pitchers slowly but surely, start to be a little more careful with him, especially knowing how apt he is to swing at the first pitch with it. When it’s a good strike to do some damage on you’re going to see them start to be more careful against him. It’s going to be more one oh counts those one oh counts turn into two, oh or two, one. And he starts working the count a little bit more. And you’re, I think you’re going to start to see the walks start to come up here. I think that’s that’s going to be when you look at his profile now and look, he’s been a very valuable player. As he hits the ball, they’re going to shoot around him. They will get to a point where, where pitchers are, and of course, it’s going to depend who’s hitting behind him. All of that, right? I mean, that all of that applies for any hitter, but I think the next step for him is you’ll see that start to become a bigger part of his profile. And when he does that right now, he has, you know, he’s like, he’s a 737 40, you know, you know, a couple weeks ago, his ops was probably like, 750 that’s when you’ll see his ops start to jump to, you know, he’s, he’s an 800 ops kind of guy, an 820 ops kind of guy, if he can do that, you know, as a second baseman, and still, you know, 21 years old man. You’re talking about someone who profiles to be, you know, maybe not a top five player in baseball, as Tony mancellino suggested. But that’s a perennial All Star kind of profile at second base, so they’re clearly excited about where Jackson holiday is. And let’s face it, Nestor Monday night is not necessarily a signal that they’re going to go on the kind of run that is required of them to be in the race and not be sellers at the trade deadline and all that. But if you’re looking at this through the lens of what I’ve been saying from the moment that you know they started in this disastrous fashion, if you’re looking at it through the lens of trying to get your young core right, you know when, when Jackson holiday hits a home run and has four RBIs. And even though Trevor Rogers isn’t part of the young core, per se, but he’s still a 27 year old pitcher who they acquired last year, who they clearly liked and thought they could do some tweaking with when he pitches the way that he did on Monday night. You know, Monday night was a good night if you’re the Orioles and you’re an Orioles fan, not just in terms of, you know, the the Hail Mary, of getting back into the race here, but in terms of what it can mean for next year, right? So, you know, with Jackson holiday doing what he’s doing and Trevor Rogers DOING what He did on Monday night, I mean, that was good to see that. You know, regardless of whether it’s going to mean that they’re going to go on the kind of run they need to to save 2025 in any meaningful way, nights like Monday night. You want to see the rest of the year, right? You want to see that. You want to see Kobe Mayo break out and and, you know, I got to see him just play. I mean, one of my pet peeves that I want to see him hit more than 196 I should no question. You know what? I’ll also say, and I wrote about this, I was a little peeved about the road trip Kobe mayo, last, last, last. Homestead against the angels. He had a multi hit game that Saturday, and he had an RBI double that Sunday. You know, he arguably his two best days as a pro at the plate, as a major leaguer at the plate. He started one game in Tampa, then Friday night he plays, had two more hits. Did not start Saturday or Sunday. Only played Saturday when Jordan Westberg exited the game. And don’t get me wrong, this isn’t me saying that Kobe Mayo needs to play every day, even if he’s over his last 40 with 25 strikeouts. It’s not what I’m saying. But when he does have a good performance, can we play him the next day? Right? Is that too much to ask? I mean, this guy is supposed to be your the second best prospect in your system. He’s young. He’s still very young. You stink now. Castles hurt, right? I mean, it’s just like when he plays well reward him by playing him the next day, right? And that’s again, this isn’t me saying that Ramona Rhea should never play, or Dylan Carlson should never play. No, I’m not saying that. But when Kobe Mayo finally looks like he’s starting to gain some traction, and the at bats are starting to look a little bit better. He’s not striking out quite as much. Then I am a few days in a row, right? I mean, so that was something that that bugged me on the road trip. And, you know, I understand that sounds more like a development thing, but let’s face it, it’s not like this lineup has been murderers row this year. So when you have a young player who you’re is trying to gain confidence and try to trying to establish himself when he has a good game or two in a row, then let it ride for a few days, right? Let, let him see if he can get on a roll instead. Instead, he started one game against the rays in that four game set, and one getting two starts on a seven game road trip on the heels of him looking better than he had looked, you know, certainly I was disappointed by that. So, you know, and I get it, you know, it’s he had a hit on Monday night, but it was, it was a bloop. I’m not saying it was anything overly impressive, but you’ve got this runway now. I mean, Mount Castle, they just put on the 60 day. Io, he’s not gonna be back till August, you know, at best. But, you know, play the kid. You know, play him five days a week, right? I mean, he doesn’t have to start every single game, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be playing at least four out of
Nestor Aparicio 37:15
five. Just to me, they look at pitching matchups in these series and they just, there’s certain times they like Urias, or certain times they really like loriano and Mariano has been a guy that, I mean, look their last place, great and whatever, but we beat Elias up. I mean, they needed him on this team. No, loriano has been a great for $4 million he’s been a great sign. They didn’t need Tyler O’Neill on this team, but
Luke Jones 37:39
8they they needed, they needed the version of Tyler O’Neill that he has not been, right. I mean, he’s starting his rehab assignment again, and we’ll see what happens there. And by the way, Tyler O’Neill year one, it’s been a total disaster, right? I mean, we all know that. Does that mean Tyler O’Neill year two is going to be a disaster? I mean, we’ll see, right? I mean, just like we were talking about Trevor Rogers in way different terms. Suddenly, they
Nestor Aparicio 38:01
got $20 million a year. You think you plug them in, you’re going to get 25 home runs. I mean, like, but he has an
Luke Jones 38:08
injury history. I mean, this, this was as much as, look, I’m not saying he was the right guy to do this with, and I’m not going to sit here and defend the move and say that I loved when they signed Tyler O’Neill. I understood what they were looking for when they signed Tyler O’Neill, but we, also, many of us, that have been critics of Mike Elias at different times. And I’m talking nuance criticism here, not not just always stinks. He’s dumb. He doesn’t know what he’s doing, right? You know, there, there’s middle ground here. We can acknowledge michaelias has done some really good things, and we can acknowledge some things that haven’t been very good, quite frankly, especially the last couple years. But in the case of Tyler O’Neill, we’ve heard a lot of people say that, Oh, Elias is risk averse, and he needs to take a few more chances. He took a chance with Tyler O’Neill. Problem is that was the wrong guy to take the chance with, because he he has had the extensive injury history. History, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not going to get back at some point. And I’m, you know, whether it’s this year or, you know, next year, because he’s not going to opt out. I mean, I think we all understand that now. So can he still be a productive player for the Orioles the next couple of years? Many can be, but he’s got to get healthy, right? Just like all these pitchers, right? I mean, Kyle Bradish, maybe the ace of the staff next year. You can’t plan on that, but he could, he could be. He’s certainly capable. We’ve seen it. We’ve seen that guy be absolutely dominant. What
Nestor Aparicio 39:30
you’d like to see is ruchman, Mayo cowser, westburg, all of these guys on the field at the same time, all in the lineup as promised two three years ago, and having commensurate pitching, whatever that is, whatever money bags needs to come up with in the off season, whatever they need to deal Samba off, to get the next Corbin burn, whatever they’re going to do, they have to have pitching to do what they did two years ago. And I that that’s where I am. On that. And to me, that’s an everyday job. And based on seeing Cal Ripken and his Iron Man, the bobble head, he did an inning in the in the mass and booth last night, they asked him about ownership, and he gave, he gave three sentences about it, um, at some point there’s going to be accountability for all these people. That’s all I’m saying. And I’ll break it off at that because you got another 101 degree night tonight. Degree night tonight. You got 101 degree night tomorrow. Luke’s at the ballpark all week long, because I like to make him suffer through last place baseball and 100 degree nights. I’m going to be over at readers crab House on Thursday. That will be happening with our friends at the Maryland lottery, in conjunction with our friends at COVID State and liberty, pure solutions, a curio wellness. I’ll be giving away the scratch offs from the Maryland lottery. We got a big week around here. Just in general. Fourth of July is next week. We’re doing crab cake tours and doing a 27th anniversary. I’m working on the 27th logo. I have the 26 oyster here. We’re gonna have a 27 Up beginning August 3. We’re going to be dining in our 27 favorite places to eat, and our 27 favorite things to eat, because people have asked me, Hey, where’s the best crab cake? So I got places I’ve never mentioned on social media, places I’ve never mentioned online places. I’ve never mentioned here on the air that I go and I munch and I eat. I’m going to be sharing that in August for fun, because the Orioles are in last place and ravens don’t play until buffalo, September 7. He’s Luke, I’m Nestor. We are W, N, S, T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking. Baltimore. Positive. You.
