As we march through spring on the road to Opening Day, Luke Jones and Nestor convened at Costas Inn in Dundalk to discuss the bullpen concerns of the Baltimore Orioles as pitching and innings come into focus as Andrew Kittredge goes down in Sarasota.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth and concerns about injuries to key players. They highlighted the potential of young stars like Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson, while expressing cautious optimism about the team’s wild card chances. The bullpen’s health, particularly Andrew Kittredge’s shoulder inflammation, was a major concern. They debated the effectiveness of a six-man rotation and the need for high-leverage relievers. The conversation also touched on the importance of maintaining fan interest and the potential impact of injuries on the team’s performance.
Orioles Pitching and Bullpen Concerns
- Nestor Aparicio discusses the Orioles’ pitching depth and the potential impact of injuries, mentioning Grayson Rodriguez and Andrew Kittredge.
- Luke Jones expresses cautious optimism about the team’s wild card potential, noting the improvements in the rotation compared to last year.
- Nestor and Luke debate the over/under for home runs by Gunnar Henderson, with Nestor suggesting 34-35 and Luke considering 30.
- The conversation shifts to the importance of the bullpen, with Nestor expressing concerns about the current state and potential issues with Kittredge.
Orioles Rotation and Pitching Strategy
- Nestor and Luke discuss the potential of Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and Shane Baz as key contributors to the rotation.
- Luke highlights the importance of Chris Bassitt’s leadership and analytical skills, comparing him to Rick Sutcliffe.
- Nestor and Luke debate the effectiveness of a six-man rotation versus a five-man rotation, considering the need for depth and injury management.
- The discussion includes the potential impact of Tyler Wells transitioning to the bullpen and the importance of having a reliable high-leverage arm.
Bullpen Depth and Injury Concerns
- Nestor and Luke discuss the bullpen’s depth and the potential impact of injuries on the team’s performance.
- Luke expresses concerns about the bullpen’s readiness, mentioning the importance of having a reliable closer and high-leverage arms.
- The conversation touches on the potential for young pitchers like Cade Povich and Brandon Young to step up and provide depth.
- Nestor and Luke discuss the challenges of managing innings and the importance of having a flexible approach to pitching roles.
Team Performance and Expectations
- Nestor and Luke discuss the team’s overall performance expectations, considering the potential impact of injuries and the need for strong offensive and defensive performances.
- Luke emphasizes the importance of having a balanced approach to pitching, considering both the rotation and the bullpen.
- Nestor expresses concerns about the team’s ability to stay healthy and perform consistently throughout the season.
- The conversation concludes with a focus on the need for the team to win and the potential impact of a strong start on fan engagement and excitement.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles pitching, bullpen concerns, Andrew Kittredge, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Wells, Ryan Helsley, Keegan Akin, Felix Batista, Grayson Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, World Baseball Classic.
SPEAKERS
8
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:00
It. Welcome home. We are W, N, S T. Am 15 70,000 Baltimore. We’re Baltimore positive. We are on scene, on site. The cars are playing. Luke Jones is here at C Maryland crab cake tour. It’s all brought to you by the Maryland lottery. I have the Harlem Globetrotter scratch offs. This been a lucky batch. Dude, 20 woman came up holding the $20 bill on my face fresh. She was like, it’s like a mink condition, $20 bill. Then somebody over here won $2 somebody here won $7 so we’ve had Winner, winner Costas dinner. We’re in Dundalk. My son is here. My daughter in law is here. Robbie Leonard was here. I threw Dennis O’Donovan out to go do more AI research. I am on Orange Crush number two, and Luke, I did something that I don’t know, that I’ve that I’ve done. I remember I used to be a designated driver for some like drunk Dundalk friends on New Year’s Eve at Amber jacks. So I drank a lot of old duels in my day. And you know, I’m a water you’ve only seen me drunk once or twice on the NFL when Roger pays the bill. Sometimes I have a third or fourth drink, but and then I have a third or fourth hangover the next day in Minnesota. But I told the barter I’m like, Look, man, this is my second deep Eddie Orange Crush, and I got Alan coming over, and you’re here, and I’m trying to keep a level head about all this baseball conversation we’re at to do. I said, Give me a short pour. Don’t put too much vodka in it, I said, and here’s what I want you to do. The next person looks like they need more vodka in their drink. Just give mine to them. So I don’t know how this is gonna go, but this is my second drink. Ready for the weekend. Man, and I already wrote it. Did you read my dear John Harbaugh, you’re not ready for all that. I did
Luke Jones 01:41
not full disclosure as we’re talking in real time. You only launched it this morning, and I did not get a chance
Nestor Aparicio 01:46
to read as we’re talking in real time. You came in and you’re like, Lamar tweeted, yeah, for
8Luke Jones 01:51
anyone listening to this right now, we late. We might have a Lamar extension. We might not, right, but it was, it was a meme from
Nestor Aparicio 02:01
next week, when he’s a Raider and I’m at
Luke Jones 02:05
a tab boy that hopefully it’s not that
Nestor Aparicio 02:08
8I don’t want to work when I’m exactly but it was the meeting Patrick’s Day, the meme,
Luke Jones 02:14
or the gift or whatever, from training day, where Denzel Washington Alonso, you know, his character does The boom. And so it’s that with a smiley face emoji. So that has by Friday afternoon that had Ravens fans in a in a frenzy about what that could mean, and comparing it to three years ago when, I think, didn’t he post a Sponge Bob thing three years ago? Yeah, before, right. So we’ll see. I mean, we we’ve talked about it. We’ve talked about it even before the season ended, so we’re on that watch, and if you’re listening right now, maybe you’ve already gotten the WNS T text about it, or maybe we’re still in a hurry up and wait as free agencies get getting underway. I was trying to
Nestor Aparicio 02:52
get a level straight when we’re at a remote so Luke Jones is here. That’s my dude. It’s all brought to you by GBMC and our newest sponsors at Farnham and Dermer, the comfort guys, I’m getting more comfortable saying the F and D and the farmer, but they do h back, they do plumbing. They’ve been so good to us, we’re appreciative. You’ll find them anywhere on the website, anywhere we are, and usually above Luke’s left, part of his heart for you with baseball right now, because I want to do baseball. We’ll do plenty of football around here as we get going and as we get up on opening day and the World Baseball Classic. I’ve been here in Dundalk for about three hours. I’ve had three or four different people engage me about baseball today my I was at my chiropractor today, Dr Steve, and I got engaged in there by one of the owners of the Orioles. Believe it or not, true story. Engage me today, of about how I felt about the Orioles, and I’m like, I was more optimistic than you a month ago, and then holiday was hurt for real. Westburg was maybe, and then it was for real. You’ve been down on the bullpen, even with kittridge and then they traded out of the bowl for a moment. Though, I don’t
Luke Jones 04:05
feel like I’ve been overly pessimistic. To say I haven’t been as optimistic as you. I’ve still said I think they’re a wild card contender. I see them as a team that’s can be in the high 80s to low 90s for wins if things go really well. So I just want to you know this, I I’m not nearly as down on them as I was a year ago at this time in terms of the opportunity cost, or
8Nestor Aparicio 04:26
opportunity over on 89 when they were fully intact a month ago, you were not bullish, and I was right this minute. And I don’t even know what the line I’m not a gambler, and if I were, I’d be working at the fan and but, but picking the over under do, I now think there are 90 win team as currently constructed with, I don’t know how many quality at bats I’m getting at a holiday westburg, certainly Richmond’s a box of chocolates to begin with, as is like Tyler O’Neal and these other guys. Yeah, I don’t think that way about Alonzo. I don’t feel that way even about Tyler Ward although that’s We’ll see about that Henderson is, you know, you’re more bullish on him than I am into him hitting 48 home runs this year, instead of 27 home runs this year, right somewhere in the middle, he’ll hit 38 we would be right or wrong, but get the betting number on his over under for home runs. I bet. If I’m gonna give him an over under on home runs, Gunner Henderson, I’m gonna say it’s 3435 right? If you’re gonna put an over under, and you’re gonna take the over, and I’m I’ll believe it when I see it. I wouldn’t bet it. I’m saying, that’s what I’m saying. If I’m going
Luke Jones 05:40
to take the over on that, I’m certainly not going to pick 48
Nestor Aparicio 05:44
but over 34 you would take that. You think he I
Luke Jones 05:48
8might be slightly under on that, like I think 30 to me 30, but we’re talking 30 as a shortstop, right? Assuming he’s still going to hit doubles, assuming he’s going to play plus defense.
Nestor Aparicio 05:59
I’m talking about him being one of the three best players in Major League Baseball or in the American League, for the American League right like then be an MVP candidate for a team that’s going to win 97 games, because Rogers is going to go 21 and six with a three, four, and Bradish is Going to go 19 and seven with a 282, wins.
Luke Jones 06:23
In this day and age, there aren’t many 20 game winners anywhere anymore.
Nestor Aparicio 06:27
I gave 19 and 12 No, but I’m just saying that’s what they’re gonna do,
8Luke Jones 06:31
not necessarily.
Nestor Aparicio 06:34
Well, you’re right. They Hunter, they
Luke Jones 06:37
to me more. So look at era strikeouts would reflect how effective they’re being, and how many innings are they pitching like. If you look at that like, that will paint a better picture for me, as far as what they are and what their value is more so than wins and losses in today’s game, just because, I mean even the top pitchers go look at what the leading guys were in terms of innings thrown. I mean, forget about 300 innings or even 250 I mean, now it’s like, how many are getting over 200 it’s a very small list, so that, in turn, while
Nestor Aparicio 07:15
8they’re paying more per inning they’ve ever played, of course, but, but that in turn paying more per inning to be at
Luke Jones 07:19
the ballpark. I mean, that’s why you don’t hear me talk about wins anymore in terms of for a pitcher, because
Nestor Aparicio 07:26
I pencil in, I understand what you’re doing. I’m trying to figure it. I would say this, for them to be to bet the over and win, that’s all, whatever the over is.
Luke Jones 07:35
And I would say this putting aside 20 wins, 2119 any of that where I am far more optimistic about this team is, no, they didn’t go out and get a top of the rotation guy. I get that However, compared to where they were a year ago at this time, where we were already talking about Grayson Rodriguez being shut down, even if we didn’t know that he was going to, wasn’t going to throw a pitch all year that was still already there. There’s way more upside for this rotation.
8Nestor Aparicio 08:00
Angels on the TV. Here is he pitching today. What’s going on with Grayson?
Luke Jones 08:03
He He’s pitched twice. It sounds looks like his Velo has been good. I mean, statistically, it’s he’s not broken. Yeah. I mean,
Nestor Aparicio 08:10
yeah, he’s gonna, we’ll see. Yeah, he’s a pitch for the angels in three weeks. Apparently, sure. We’ll see. Right? So, for what that’s worth.
Luke Jones 08:16
8Oh, and that’s why you heard me not be enamored with that trade. Not so much in terms of like that you were going to trade them, but you only got one year of Taylor ward. Year of Taylor Ward out of it. So but to go back to what we were talking about, where I am more optimistic, and we’ll get into Andrew Kittredge and the bullpen. Because you’ve heard me talking about the bullpen even before. Kittredge, with the shoulders starting to bark now, but this rotation does have more upside compared to a year ago. It’s, it’s not even close. I mean, Kyle Bradish, I don’t know how many innings he’s going to throw this year. You know what? What’s the cap going to be? Is it 151, 6165 is it quite that many? Is it more than that? Do they take the governors off and say, like, Look, we’re not going to baby these guys because they end up getting hurt anyway, right? Which is some of the arguments you hear around baseball with these arbitrary innings and pitch limits and all that, but in terms of just his pure ability, his pure stuff, his what he’s shown, not just when he was fourth in Cy Young voting three years ago, but how well he pitched before he was shut down again in 24 and how well he pitched, albeit In a small sample, but coming back last year, go look at his numbers. He was missing bats. He was throwing hard. He was getting getting guys out. He was dominant.
Nestor Aparicio 09:28
That’s where spring’s important for the next couple right? That’s pub when you’re if hit him ready to go five innings on the 20 p is, right?
Luke Jones 09:35
He might be better moving forward than any of the big three that the Orioles did not sign this winter. Now that’s not me sitting here making an argument for why you absolutely didn’t do that, but if you’re trying to lay out a path of where to be optimistic and where to look at the upside, Kyle Bradish absolutely has a stuff. Trevor Rogers did what he did last year, which was a sub two era, and it was most. Yes, I get it in a year where the Orioles were not good, but was still most valuable Oriole and pitched his butt off for three and a half months. And you’ve added Shane Boz, who I will continue to say to me, is kind of like Grayson Rodriguez, except the difference is he’s been healthy the last 18 months after going through his period of arm trouble and Tommy John surgery a few years ago. So those three alone, and then you add Chris Bassett, who, I’m guessing you didn’t get it get a chance to hear Friday’s game televised on mass, and they actually talked to Bassett after his outing. Man, from a cerebral standpoint, from a leadership standpoint, just from an analytical standpoint, that guy’s impressive,
Nestor Aparicio 10:41
and that’s also player rep. He is, he is, that’s, he’s gonna be a big, big figure, certainly. Well, I mean, maybe not one issue, because he’s only on their one, sure, sure, but, but, but you heard homestead homie next year, but, but Ben McDonald,
8Luke Jones 10:55
who was doing the game on Friday and had just been in camp as a guest coach, he drew a comparison to someone that you’ll be very familiar with. He compared Bassett a little bit that he gets some Rick Sutcliffe vibes for him, in the sense that he can be that kind of positive presence on the young guys that the Orioles had once upon a time, which were Ben McDonald and Mike Messina at that point. Arthur Rhodes,
Nestor Aparicio 11:18
well, Sutcliffe brought Bill Murray into the clubhouse,
Luke Jones 11:23
but, but the point is, I mean, you talk to Ben McDonald who, and I get it, Ben never became the guy that he everyone envisioned when he was one one Andy Bennett’s pub that said, go look. You know, I think because Ben didn’t live up to those expectations, you also forget he was pretty darn good for a few years. Like never. Like he didn’t become Jim Palmer, but he was still pretty good. But you look at him, you look at what, what Sutcliffe meant for Messina early in his career. And that’s where I look at this thing and say, okay, even if bass, it’s not going to be a guy that’s going to be on the all star team, like he was, what, four or five years ago, but he’ll give you innings. He gets ground balls, which plays well at Camden Yards almost always, assuming your defense is decent. And I think there’s also that element of what can he offer guys like Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers and Shane Boz, beyond what the coaching staff’s doing and analytics and all the different things that that they’re doing. I mean, just hearing him talk, I mean, he’s talking about working with Adley rutsman in terms of making sure their setups right, making sure their readings, well, that’s what the battery leagues, it doesn’t yours. Don’t Exactly, exactly, but, but when you have someone who can do that, on top of everything that your coaching staff and your analytics department and everything is doing, but can apply it and apply it. And it’s like, Hey, I’ve done this for a decade. Here’s how you do it. I mean, I think that’s something where you look at Bradish and those guys and say, Man, if you’re not paying attention to someone like him, shame on you. Because I guarantee, regardless of how he pitches as an individual, he can help them in a way that you know, like we talked about it with Kyle Gibson three or four years ago, right? I mean, you Charlie Morton, exactly, right. And it certainly there’s more clout when they can still perform, as I talk about a lot. You know, team leadership still needs to come from guys that can play. But assuming he can still be a back half of the rotation guy for them, which is what he’s penciled in to be right now, then I think that can pay some dividends and help make Bradish and Rogers and Boz even better. And look, I’m not saying it’s all going to go perfectly, right? I mean, we’ve already seen it now with, you know, in the infield, with health, and now with Kittredge, with the bullpen. So I’m not going to sit here and say that Kyle, Bradish, Trevor Rogers and Shane Boz are all going to the All Star game. But if you have two of those guys that pop, and let’s say, you know, Bradish looks like he was, you know, the path he was on three years ago, pre elbow injury. And I don’t think Trevor Rogers is going to have a sub two era again. But let’s say it’s a three era, or three two, something like that. And if Shane Boz can, you know now that he’s away from playing at Steinbrenner field, where you kind of look at his home road splits
Nestor Aparicio 14:04
8last year. Well, if you have a big three in any way, and you got something like then you then you’ve got a team that absolutely is right in gives you a chance to win the three out of five days, more than that, because the fourth and fifth and sixth aren’t. They’re not. They’re not like I’ve said about coming from Norfolk off the boat, Dean Kramer’s average starter, that’s still valuable three innings and six runs out of them. Yeah, Luke Jones is here. We’re CASAS and Dundalk. I’m on my second Orange Crush. Saw brought to you by the Maryland lottery. Are friends at GBMC far in the Dermer. We’re doing sports around here, which we do better than anybody, as always. All right, dude, you mentioned pitching. You mentioned pitching, you will anything was about the kittridge in the bullpen? Yes, I do want to get into the pitch system, because we were going to do a whole pitching thing. Yeah, here at the bar. Yeah. And I know you want to do deep dive, but losing kittridge, where the bullpen innings are, where’s canoe and all this? Where’s Craig Kim? Oh, it’s right. He’s not here. But. But, well, you know, but Housley and we’re a couple weeks out on this. It doesn’t have to be perfect on opening day. It doesn’t even have to be perfect on May 10. But you can’t be 12 and 26 you know, either, right? Like at some I said 17, yeah, B 20 did just play me 525, ball for a quarter of the season.
Luke Jones 15:26
Like, don’t be in a position where the seasons over in mid May, like it was last
Nestor Aparicio 15:30
Yeah, I’m not asking for miracles here. I just want to feel out yeah, that I wasn’t a dodo bird for Bettany over a month ago, and I really the offense let you down so much last year. And there’s such like, Oh, this guy’s gonna hit 30 we’ve already had an argument whether gunner’s gonna hit 29 or 34 or 48 or whatever. Pete Alonso, same thing like Frank Robinson, well, he better hit 42 home runs that he better if This better not be the year. It’s 27 it only plays 102 games, right? Like, and we’ve already got West Berg at already got holiday out. I already think rushman is a box of chocolates and, and the arms haven’t fallen off yet. I just, I’m not vibing good right now. Yeah, I’m not. I mean, it’s not St Patrick’s Day, and I’m not vibing good right now, like, I’m betting under right now because, like, I know some stuff’s gonna go wrong, sure. And, and I’m willing to buy into Rogers and braddish and buy all the everything you just said. I want to buy into all that somebody’s gonna get hurt, yeah. And then the handmade bone, and then the rotchman. I don’t know what that is, right, so I’m willing to say cows are moves in. Mayo hits well enough. Pisay. Oh, all right. Rotchman doesn’t need to look like, like, you know, Johnny Bench, but like better than he’s looked at last year and a half. Like Chris hoyles, yeah, right, one of the most underrated. Orioles. Okay, so taking a case for all of this, I’ll throw it to you, because you’re going to start with the bullpen. I know you all, yeah.
Luke Jones 17:14
I mean, yeah. You know, I was concerned about the bullpen even before what’s happened with Kittredge. Look, I also want to not be an alarmist. Here. Guys have shoulder inflammation. Yes, sometimes it can end up being the worst case scenario, and sometimes it can be, hey, you’re halfway through spring training. You know, the arm’s feeling a little and you back off of it, he’s going to miss the first couple weeks of spring of the season, and then he’s fine, because that happens. We tend to. We remember the worst case scenarios, while acknowledging that not every time someone has shoulder inflammation, it means that they have a torn labrum or a torn rotator cuff, like like Felix Batista, who, by the way, actually started throwing but every time there’s sore, oh, it makes you nervous, it makes you well. And that’s where we go, where you know that going into spring training, and you know, even the first couple days when obviously they signed Bassett, and that put them in a position where they have six now we’re going to see about efflin. Efflin, it made a spring start the other day. Looks pretty good based on the numbers, based on people that were there watching it, but is he going to be ready for opening day? If he is, then what do they do? And that might be part of this equation, as far as what this bullpen looks like, in terms of they might go six man rotation with a seven man bullpen, because you either have five with eight out there.
8Nestor Aparicio 18:31
Well, this is really wells and some of these, yeah. I mean,
Luke Jones 18:34
Wells is gonna be right. Wells is gonna be in the pen. I mean, they’ve confirmed that. Now that was obvious, especially went from the time they signed
Nestor Aparicio 18:40
the Norfolk guys that were starters, the poetry these other guys that might be a little more pliable at this point, you really don’t believe in a lot of these guys is starters, right, right. Don’t really believe that guy is going to be good enough to replace Shane Boz in the rotation unless his arm falls. Are and then that you are, you’re back to wherever you were, you know, but that transition of you’re not good enough to be a starter, but dude, you might have 18 pitches in you in the sixth inning. That’s really going to be important for us, yeah.
Luke Jones 19:11
8And that’s where I think it’s kind of interesting right now. I mean, I don’t know who that is exactly. I mean, speaks to your max effort, because Tyler, because Tyler, wells, is going to be in the pen. They’ve already confirmed that. I think that was evident from the moment that they signed Bassett. It’s like, all right, they’re not even going to mess around with stretching him out. He’s just going to, he’s going to be in a bullpen routine. And we’ve seen that, and, you know, we’ll see about that. I’ve, I’ve liked that profile for a few years now, but he’s got to stay healthy. I mean, you’re talking about someone who’s had multiple elbow
Nestor Aparicio 19:39
surgery about that. And I haven’t been around baseball in a long time, and I don’t know how they’re trained anymore. That’s for you to you know, you’re the one press pass. I’m the one drinking from the other water fountain. But in the old days, and I, I always use Mark Williamson, because he was my guy. You know, in that era, you talk about Sutcliffe, yeah, Todd fro worth, and they, I really knew the. Players, like, really knew that, drank with them, went out, and they would all say, Talk to Willie about that. Talk to Willie about that. And they would say his arm was like, like, he was, like, double jointed in a way where he could throw 38 pitches and come back the next night and give you 20. And then on Sunday, if you were in the 12th inning, he could just take the ball and throw 60 pitches if he needed to, just like because he had an arm like that, and he can make a spot start and give you 72 pitches if you needed to. So and this is 35 years ago. I don’t when I talked to the Dave Johnson’s in the people of that era, not even the Palmer’s, the people the next era. And when I hear Ben McDonald, who was of that era, talk about it. It’s all Russian geography to them, because, like, they didn’t think about the game that way. I don’t think about the game that way. You’re a little more younger and more on the analytics side, but the notion that, first off, think of Orlando Brown in football, I’m gonna make more money being a left tackle than a right tackle, even a shitty left tackle, I’m gonna make a lot more money. The pitching side of this is the bullpen versus starting. There’s ego, there’s It’s what I’ve always done and all of that blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It really is. It is the ability to warm up quickly, yeah, to be pliable, all of these things that are, physiology, psychology coming into a game where Frank Robinson handed the ball to Curt Schilling. He said, Who’s up? Yeah, because he wasn’t used to being a relief pitcher. So I’m just this is my baseball the way I see it. I hope Tyler Wells is okay with being in a bullpen or doesn’t think it’s a pathway to being a starter. And I talked to Greg Olsen, I’ll get I’ll get otter on Yeah, he had to make that transition because he was going to be a 300 game winner. Yeah? And then they said, kid, go ahead, take the ball every day, six days a week. Different job. Yeah, different job. It’d be saying to you, Luke, you’re good at baseball, football, you’re gonna cover NASCAR lacrosse for me this year. It’s, it’s a different China,
Luke Jones 22:15
I mean, and I think it’s, it’s not quite that extreme, but they’re certainly a different mindset. There’s certainly an adjustment to it. I think from, you know, general thinking on it, the general consensus, you know, conventional wisdom on it, is it’s easier to go from starter who stretched out to bullpen during a season, whereas the opposite of if you’re shortened up and suddenly you’re someone that, hey, this guy’s got the kind of stuff to be a starter. Generally, that’s not something a transition you’re going to make in season. Now, is it easy? Either way? No, and that’s why I think generally. And you know, you asked me about guys at triple A, you know, so I assume you’re talking about the Cade poviches, the Brandon Young’s right guys that were taking the ball every fifth or sixth day last year because they didn’t have anyone else, and now look like they’re on the outside looking in. See the difference is you’re still trying to stretch those guys out right now because you want them to be in a position if something happens to one or two of your starters, rather than if you just transition them right to the bullpen, but, well, they’re
Nestor Aparicio 23:22
also smarter about this in the monitors, I think about they have more Tyler wells pitches on opening day and throws 18 pitches in the sixth inning or seventh inning. He’s not going to pitch the next they don’t play the next day. But, yeah, but, but they’re going to, I would say, baby, these guys, we already talked about, there’s no 300 there’s pictures. Yeah, like they’re going to max effort. These guys, like a horse running six furlongs and then rest them. So they don’t want to bring another horses. So there is a different regimen. There is, but I don’t know that there’s success in that. To say that Tyler Wells is going to be first 35 innings into the season pitching to a 242, era out of the bullpen, because he’ll be more effective there than he would be if he gave him the ball every fifth day as a fifth starter, and he threw 84 pitches, yeah, and gave up six runs in the fifth inning, right? So I like but at the same time, think about there’s also, because if you felt like he could give you six innings at three era. You wouldn’t put him
8Luke Jones 24:23
in a bowl, sure, no question about it. But at the same time as a bullpen arm, you’re rarely facing hitters more than once, you can shorten up and give net. And yes, your point is well taken, because you’ve heard me say it a lot, but yeah, there is a different there’s a different level of max effort, knowing that you’re going to throw 20 or 25 pitches, as opposed to opposed to 90, right? So you have that, in some cases,
Nestor Aparicio 24:47
recovery, that’s going to be normal in the modern question about Billy Martin, no question. Okay, no question.
Luke Jones 24:52
But, but also, you’re talking about starter repertoire, where you might be throwing four or five pitches, but if suddenly you’re moved to relief, they might say, well, you’re. Going to throw two fastball, slider, let’s say, and your split might be a show me or something like that, right? Whereas, you know, because Tyler wells he might, and I’m using him just as an example, he’s, he’s the kind of guy that you know, his worst pitch, you might not see him throw very much anymore, whereas, when he was a starter, he’s still throwing that 12 times an outing, right? So, so there’s different ways of looking at it, and I think it’s going to be fascinating to see what they do, because I was just watching MLB Network the other day, they were talking about the Dodgers, of course, right? And, you know, like, Chip and they’re already in a you know, there’s been questions about Blake snow and, you know, yamamoto’s healthy, but, like, everyone’s wondering, like, what he did in the postseason last year, is he going to bounce back and be effective and give them 180 innings again and all that? And you go and look at what their rotation was in September and October, it was nothing like what it was early in the year. Guys were hurt, and the mindset is really it’s what’s really become the mindset. And this is why you need six legitimate starters and two or three other guys that are viable depth. In your mind, you know, which you know, and the cut off line there might be someone like Kade Povich. Let’s say, I mean, Kate Povich wasn’t a disaster last year. He was below average, but he wasn’t the worst starting pitcher in baseball, or anything like that. But the difference is now he’s going to be option eight, you know, compared to being one of your top four or five last year, but, but I think you have to look at it in terms of you have 162 games, ideally in Major League Baseball. Now, the bet even the best starting rotations, they’re averaging maybe six innings, right? I mean, somewhere around there, give or take, a couple tenths of an inning on average. So 162 times
Nestor Aparicio 26:51
8six, they never go to the eighth, and so they get knocked out in the fourth. And you are six inning pitcher knocks you even, like, you know, sure, like, it just takes one bad out, yeah, and all your top outings are six and third.
Luke Jones 27:03
But think so you play 162 and six innings on average, that’s 972 innings. So you’re five of thinking, Well, but, but, you know, it’s not going to be five, so it’s really okay. Three or four can take, hopefully, a lion’s share of 30 ish starts. You know, 2800 8531 you know, I mean, 185 is still very much on the high end in this day and age. But the point is, you’re gonna have to fill those innings in some shape or form. So what are you going to do? Is it going to be a five man rotation? Are you going to use a six man rotation at times? And we’ve talked about that because of, hold on
Nestor Aparicio 27:39
a minute, man. Dude, if they’re gonna be any good, two of their guys better make 28 to 32, of the real guys, the real guy. I hear you. Two of their three real guys.
Luke Jones 27:48
I hear you unless you’re the Dodgers and you have, you go 10 deep, and
8Nestor Aparicio 27:53
we’re talking about this team, I understand, but you’re talking league average. I got you right.
Luke Jones 27:58
But I’m just saying, like, for me, it’s, you almost have to look at it more as a puzzle now, where it’s like, all right, how are we going to get to 970 how are we going to get to 1000 innings out of our rotation? Knowing that Kyle Bradish is, you know, still coming off of, like, the first full season back from Tommy John, I expect, you know, I mean, 160 innings, yeah, probably I, you know. And I think they’re gonna be, for me, it’s more so I expect him to be very high level, 160 but what does that look like? But he’s not stiff and he’s not sore. You’re gonna give the ball everything, and that’s where, but that, and that’s where I struggle, right? Because, yeah, conventional wisdom, skip him well, if you’re but if you’re trying to manage and keep them healthy, is there the occasional time where you might try to skip them at maybe not skip them completely, but, you know, and the all star breaks, a perfect example of this. Do you, you know, if he was the next to last guy to pitch before the all star break? Do you wait and put him at the bottom of the next turn just because you say, hey, that’s kind of like,
Nestor Aparicio 28:59
if you’re going to go 27 starts in a healthy season, right? That’s how you’re thinking, sure, once a month you’re going to move around it, right?
Luke Jones 29:05
8And and that’s also, that’s where you kind of come in with the six man rotation. Look, teams have thought about this stuff a lot, right? In terms of, in this day and age, how to manage innings for young guys, how to manage innings for guys coming off of major injuries, how to manage innings, just because you know that most guys aren’t going that deep into games. Well, then you get the bullpen day too. Sure you have all that. So they’ve talked about six man rotations. They’ve talked about five man rotations. I remember I wrote about this briefly, and it was a complete spitball. Orioles were on the West Coast, kind of, you know, think tank piece where I thought, What about a team that would go, even go back to the days of a four man rotation, but you cap the pitch pitch count at like 75 right? I mean, like just, I mean, we’ve seen piggyback in the miners, where you basically have two starters and the first guy goes four, and the other guy goes for. Five, right? That sounds great until someone gets knocked out in the second inning, right? And same thing with these six man rotations, it sounds great until the ace of your staff isn’t getting regular enough work, or your bullpens getting short, because guys still aren’t going that deep in the games, even by design, when you start looking at analytics and third time through the order and all that. So all these teams are trying to spit ball. But yeah, there is, there is something to the idea of, you know, I look at Kyle Bradish, and part of the, part of the angst is he only threw 32 innings last year when he came back. Now he threw in the minors. But what’s his what’s a realistic best case scenario where you’re going to be mindful, realistic, though, like, I always say best case scenario, but like, not pie in the sky, where he’s going to lead the league in inning 185 you know, like 180 right? 175 something like that. He threw 168 and two thirds in his 2023 season, which, you know what that was, his first full season in the majors. So I kind of look at that many starts. Did you make every start? 30 starts? Well, maybe at every start. He he missed every start. He was on the i l early in the year, because what he got, I was the he got hit on the foot right, Grayson, you guys ended up making the day his debut unexpectedly. But the point is, that’s where I kind of look at that and say, okay, yeah,
Nestor Aparicio 31:19
we were worried he was really going to miss serious time, and he did. Yeah, that was nasty. I think he
Luke Jones 31:24
was back after the 15 day minimum season. Yeah, so, but you kind of look at it and but you’re trying to piece this all together, so that’s where you do look at it and say, All right, well, yeah, maybe if you knew that all your starters are going to stay healthy, maybe you’d convert Cade Povich to reliever. But then what happens a month from now, when two guys are on the i l and suddenly you need a starter, and Kate Povich has been pitching out of the bullpen, right? So, so it is kind of tough in that way, but you know, to go back to the overall point about the concerns about the bullpen, I just kind of look at it right now, like, what are the sure things? Okay, you hope Ryan Helsley is a sure thing, right? Because you just gave him a two year, 28 million. You hope that you know the issue he had with
Nestor Aparicio 32:08
them, better not need Ryan mount castle. They better not shoot him. Sure, right? Like, literally, we that that Job’s got to be filled. Yeah, yeah. I mean, helsley’s got to be the close so wrong for him, troublesome? Yeah? I mean, it’s already troublesome for me to keep rich.
8Luke Jones 32:24
It is. I like, even, you know, just because it’s a reminder of, like, who’s your life
Nestor Aparicio 32:28
high leverage, right? Where there’s 73 innings coming from, that’s what I’m asking, right? Yeah, yeah.
Luke Jones 32:33
But you look at the pen right now, okay, Helsley, we’re just gonna make the assumption he’s gonna be great. They clearly paid him thinking he’s going to be great. And that his six weeks that he had with the Mets last summer was way more aberration. They he was tipping his pitches. I saw a breakdown recently. You could tell the way he was. But also,
Nestor Aparicio 32:51
8how many days a week are they going to have a five, three leading eighth? And that’s the other.
Luke Jones 32:55
That’s the other. Well, this is why I said you need another high leverage arm, because he’ll can’t pitch every day. And even if Kittredge is healthy, he can’t pitch every day. So you kind of look at it right now their pen and
Nestor Aparicio 33:08
he’s untested. Is that what you would say?
Luke Jones 33:10
Yeah, heck yeah, it is. I mean, so you have Helsley.
8Nestor Aparicio 33:14
Look, yeah, being nice, Katie. Give me my press pass. Untested.
Luke Jones 33:17
Helsley. He’s been a former All Star closer, fine, great. You know, I think I’m optimistic about him. I like the signing, right? But now you’re looking at okay, Keegan Aiken, to his credit, he pitched more high leverage after the trade deadline last year, and he handled himself pretty well. I think Cape I think Keegan akin is it is a legitimate arm, okay, do I want him pitching the eighth inning? Though? You know, I to me it’s more like I want him coming in in the sixth or seventh inning of a close game, right? Because you want something better than him for the eighth Yeah. And I had said, even before, there may be a better version. You heard me say this. I mean, even before the kittridge injury, I was looking, you know, can Is there a high leverage arm to be had. And you know, Michael Koco’s still out there. Look, I get it, he has an injury history and including last year, but he’s got a great arm, and the upside is beats anyone else in that bullpen right now, other than Helsley. I mean, he would be one in one a potentially as far as your closing situation, that’s how capable he is just in terms of an upside. If he’s healthy now, he’s still unsigned, maybe teams are completely scared off by his
Nestor Aparicio 34:27
medicals, right? He pitching is expensive too, and so,
Luke Jones 34:31
8but you just kind of look right now after Helsley assuming Kittredge, you know, Albernaz already said he’s unlikely to be ready opening day, maybe he’s ready the second week. But even with him, you’re looking at Keegan Aiken yen your canoe, who’s been on the decline the last two years. I mean, I’m fine with saying, all right, he’ll make the club. He’s got an option year left. Just keep that in mind. Well, he was any guy what I need him like that guy again, but then he hasn’t looked that way 18 months. That’s what I’m saying. It’s been a while. So look, Dietrich Enz and Rico Garcia both pitch very well in August and September last year, but it was August. Who precisely they pitch well in the same way I talked about Cade
Nestor Aparicio 35:14
Strauss, they got to come get Aaron judge out in the eighth inning with two on. I have no idea how that’s
Luke Jones 35:19
going to go. It might be okay, but I don’t know how that’s going to go, because you’re looking at August and September after they played out the string for a last place club, right? That’s not the same thing as being in a wild card race, and you’re pitching the eighth inning on a given night against the Yankees or the Red Sox, or whoever. So, yeah, you kind of look at that picture. Okay? Tyler wells, Grant Wolfram is a good arm that, you know, they’ve got some other Nunes is a guy that they got in at the trade deadline last year from the Mets. He’s an interesting he might be part of their bullpen, and he’s got a good arm. But I don’t like anyone sitting here with any level of conviction to say, Yes, oh, me and Jack, guy is going to be good pub Memorial Day. We have no idea. So while yes, previous day, if the managers, they do, right? Jesus, I don’t think we’ll have to worry about that this year. But yeah, I just, I kind of look at the names and say, Okay, I’ll hear Anthony Nunez potentially. I’ll hear Cameron foster potentially. Oh, here Chase McDermott, one of those former starters who now looks like he’s going to be in the pen all the time. I think those guys are most likely to start at Norfolk. But out of those three, maybe one of those guys does pop in the way that Cano did three years ago and the way that Felix Batista did four years ago. But until you know that man, that’s a heck of a leap of faith for a team that’s supposed to be a contender, right? There’s just not a whole lot of proven in that bullpen right now, especially now with with the Kittredge situation.
Nestor Aparicio 36:47
So there’s no salary cap. Mike, yeah. I mean,
8Luke Jones 36:52
Danny, cool, I’m still out there well, and he worked out pretty well for them a few years. I’ll break this down
Nestor Aparicio 36:56
for you, because Alan just walked in. We’re gonna do some radio with alberna to bring it. We’re talking about, we never did talk about the strikes. You about, you know, Mike, my thought on the money side and where they are on opening day ahead. Marty Conway on at length this week, talking about the business and the way the teams constructed in April is not going to be the way the teams constructed in August. What we’re talking about now, about kings and all this, it’s great. March conversation once April, we’re day to day, we’re minute to minute, we’re injury to injury. We’re start to start. We’re decision to decision in the seventh and eighth inning. And that’s what makes baseball so beautiful. Sure thing for all of us, right? But there is this point where, like the strike pending the need of the team, the team needs to do what thing? Well, what do they need to win? They need to win. That’s your charge, that it’s not my charge, but it’s everybody else. I’m gonna watch them whether they win or lose. That’s just the way it is. Oh, well, yeah, I’m gonna watch it, right? But they are, they need to win. They aren’t. They need to win. They’ll be holding the bar here at Koco’s whether they win or lose, all their good if they
Luke Jones 37:59
don’t win this year, all that goodwill and all that excitement of a couple years ago, even before
Nestor Aparicio 38:03
8they lost a half a million fans and finished in last place, it’ll be, this cannot be a turd. Yeah, they can’t be 17 and 29 with Bradish on ice and yeah, just and Lonzo hurts crazy stuff, right? And I don’t think they will, but Well, holiday westburger already hurt. Kittridge is already hurt. We’re sitting here and it’s not even
Luke Jones 38:23
St Patrick’s Day. Holiday is not going to be out long. I’m just saying westburg. Who the
Nestor Aparicio 38:28
heck knows? I don’t kittridge. Who knows? I thought they were 1000 to 1200 really amazing prime of their career, at bats that were going to power this team to 91 or 92 or 93 wins, and power this team to a better offense, a better defense than what is currently on the field in Sarasota. Allen is here. Luke is here. We used to do the handoff back in the day. Instead, we’re going to do the crush off where it cost us in it’s all brought to you by the Maryland lottery. And our friends, we have the Harlem Globetrotters. So anyway, they’re coming to town, and we have winners. Somebody kept me $20 bill. They were holding it up, waving it at me like, oh, I gave you they won. They said, We have winners here at Costa city, Dundalk. All are brought to you by our friends at GBMC as well. Keep me alive and well. And I do have a doctor’s appointment next month, which I ain’t been to the doctors in a while. I hope I’m healthy, but I’m gonna find out, because I’m going to GBMC, also our friends at Farnham Dermer for putting us together with our HVAC and our plumbing needs, sponsoring Luke sports reports and everything we’re doing out of Owings Mills and from Camden Yards, but not from Sarasota. Luke, last week, I wanted to take you down to Florida, the great fruit League, oranges everywhere. And the best I can do is a fresh Orange Crush here. That’s not a bad alternative. Hey, I’m okay. We’re done, dog, we’re in my homeland. Luke is here. Alan is here. We are talking baseball. My son’s at the bar. He disappeared. My son’s at the bar somewhere here too. He’s the one in the pink hair back, by the way. My daughter in law has orange hair, and it’s not even opening day yet. She’s ready. She’s ready for something magic happens back for more Alan’s going to join us. You.
