So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.
After once fearing I was being too optimistic predicting Brandon Hyde’s would simply avoid 100 losses for the first time over a full season since 2017, the Orioles have been one of the best stories in baseball with a 46-46 record that left them just 3 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot over the All-Star break.
While the focus remains on the big picture for an organization that’s undergone a dramatic rebuild over these last several years, it’s fun to note that Baseball Reference gives the Orioles an 11.8% chance to make the postseason, ESPN sees them with a 9% chance, and FanGraphs puts their odds at a less optimistic 1.4%. Those long-shot odds even being a talking point shows how far the Orioles have come since three 108-plus-loss seasons and a 7-14 April that included the loss of ace starter John Means to Tommy John surgery.
Whether the Orioles can become serious wild-card contenders or are merely in position to continue showing growth with the chance to serve as a significant spoiler down the stretch, this sure beats the last several years of miserable baseball.
Below are five story lines for the second half of the 2022 season:
1. The trade deadline
We won’t have to wait long with the Aug. 2 deadline less than two weeks away, but how will general manager Mike Elias proceed as the Orioles have played their most inspiring baseball since he arrived?
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The future of slugger Trey Mancini has been debated for years with the courageous cancer survivor set to become a free agent this fall, but what can Baltimore expect for a two-month rental of a bat-first veteran having a solid but unspectacular season? Mancini has been a great ambassador and leader for the club, but the 30-year-old has never experienced the postseason beyond a 2016 cup of coffee and could be looking to boost his free-agent profile as an everyday first baseman for a contender after a first half at an Oriole Park at Camden Yards that’s no longer terribly friendly to right-handed bats. Would trading Mancini really be worth potentially deflating a young clubhouse, or do you just let it ride for the year?
Veteran starter Jordan Lyles is also a pending free agent, but the Orioles have an $11 million club option for 2023 and his season ERA had dipped to a solid 4.37 before last Sunday’s poor outing elevated it to 4.76, making it plausible that he draws modest interest. But there’s also the question of whether Baltimore can afford to deal the workhorse Lyles for what would figure to be an underwhelming return when you remember why he was signed in the first place.
Having two more years of club control, corner outfielder Anthony Santander and All-Star closer Jorge Lopez could fetch more attractive trade returns, and the presence of Kyle Stowers at Triple-A Norfolk and the overall volatility of relievers would make dealing these players easier to justify for the proper return. Still, dealing off your home run leader and best reliever wouldn’t be an easy sell when the major league club is finally becoming relevant.
On the flip side, a team with such a small payroll should also be open to the right deal to add talent for 2023 that might also make them better down this year’s stretch.
Elias isn’t one to be moved by a small sample size, but a post-break homestand of 5-2 or better immediately followed by nine games against sub-.500 teams would make it difficult to sell the likes of Mancini and Lyles with the return unlikely to move the big-picture needle. The focus remains on the future, but the improving Orioles should be moving out of the business of shedding payroll to collect lottery tickets if they truly want fans to believe they’re building something special.
2. The future
The Orioles have gone 30-22 since top prospect Adley Rutschman arrived two months ago, but it’s difficult not to see what pitching prospect DL Hall, infield prospects Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson, and Stowers — who did make a two-game cameo in Toronto last month — are doing at Triple-A Norfolk and wonder when we’ll see them in Baltimore.
8Fair questions persist about Hall’s walk rate, but one earned run and 40 strikeouts with eight walks over his last four starts covering 20 2/3 innings for the Tides make it difficult to justify keeping him in the minors any longer. And with the lefty having only so many innings left to throw this season after an injury-shortened 2021, getting his feet wet in anticipation of Hall being a member of Baltimore’s 2023 rotation seems like a no-brainer.
The Orioles may not want to push top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez coming back from a lat muscle strain just to debut in the majors in September — if that’s even an option by then. Elias may even be able to justify slow-playing Westburg and Henderson — who both began the season at Double-A Bowie — if Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias continue providing solid value on the left side of the Orioles infield. But not getting Hall and Stowers to the majors for August and September would be too much of a missed opportunity.
3. The AL East
Even with their 16-game improvement from this point last season, the Orioles remain in last place in a division sporting four teams at least three games over .500 at the All-Star break, a reminder of what they face even while making progress with the rebuild. And though Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Boston are all dealing with their share of adversity while the 64-28 New York Yankees leave the rest of the division in the dust, it won’t be easy for the Orioles to overtake these clubs that are more talented and experienced at this point in time.
After going 16-21 against the AL East before the break, the Orioles have 39 division games to play and will need to elevate their performance against their rivals to reinforce they have turned the corner and can hang in the wild-card race. Next season will introduce a more balanced schedule that features just 14 games against each division opponent rather than 19, but the road to contention will remain a daunting one in the East.
Whether you’re believing in these Orioles’ wild-card chances or bracing for the other shoe to drop after such a surprising stretch, these first seven games out of the break hosting the Yankees and Rays could tell us a lot.
4. The starting rotation
8In the wake of the Means injury, Tyler Wells emerged as Baltimore’s best starter and will take the bump to open the second half, but the Orioles have maintained all year that the 27-year-old will be on an innings limit after logging just 57 as a Rule 5 rookie reliever last season. With the right-hander already at 85 1/3 innings, how many bullets does he have left for the season’s final 10 weeks and how much strain might that innings limit put on the rest of the staff?
Even if Lyles stays puts at the deadline and continues to eat innings for the rotation, can the Orioles expect Dean Kremer, Spenser Watkins, and Austin Voth to sustain their respective 2.59, 3.93, and 3.42 ERAs or post numbers even close to that? Will Kyle Bradish and Bruce Zimmermann get themselves back in position to regain rotation spots after their substantial first-half struggles? And how might Hall fit into the overall picture?
If the Orioles want their standout bullpen to continue thriving down the stretch, the rotation needs to provide competitive starts and enough innings to keep Hyde from going to the relief well too early and often.
5. The coming offseason
If a club that’s gone 39-32 since the start of May has taught us anything, it’s that the Orioles should soon begin prioritizing major league wins over long-term development with this offseason looking like the right time to turn that dial.
Regardless of what happens at the trade deadline, Elias and the Orioles should be evaluating everyone and everything through the lens of how to contend for a playoff spot in 2023 and beyond. That’s why it would serve Baltimore well to call up its Norfolk prospects to get them acclimated and ready to hit the ground running next year rather than being too methodical and worrying about service time, which could hinder the start of 2023.
This doesn’t mean adding $100 million to the payroll over a single winter or trading all of their top 100 prospects for established talent, but the days of the offseason being headlined by a bargain-basement major league signing or two, waiver claims, and minor-league deals won’t cut it for a fan base that’s witnessed Rutschman’s arrival and enjoyed better baseball over the last couple months. The strengths and weaknesses observed over the second half of 2022 should drive what Elias and the Orioles do this winter.
With baseball operations and the farm system in a much better spot than the organization has enjoyed in many years, will ownership now step up from a financial standpoint?
