With the Baltimore Orioles in a prime position to make a World Series run in the fall, Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the ideology of Mike Elias and new ownership in regard to making moves for key prospects as well as veteran pitching as the MLB trading deadline looms.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
orioles, week, terms, talked, year, team, trade, win, crochet, good, bullpen, players, starter, people, prospects, rotation, game, pitchers, series, baseball
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor J. Aparicio
Nestor J. Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home we are W n s t, Towson, Baltimore, Baltimore positive or positively into the week after the all star game and that means that Luke Jones comes back it also means that we have a a wide swath of Maryland crab cake tours that are coming your way including the Maryland oyster tour all are brought to you by the Maryland lottery, our friends at Gold Rush sevens doublers installed a handful of these left. We’re gonna get back out we’re gonna be a fade these in a couple of weeks. And then I’m like doing a whole litany of things. Angela also Brooks who’s running for Senator, it’s gonna be joining us over at state fair on August 13. And then into September, we’re gonna have an oyster tour that’s going to be just phenomenal. I’ve been really working hard on that. So big thanks to our friends at Jiffy Lube multi care for also throwing us out onto the road into the fall when football will begin as well as our friends at Liberty pure solutions and you know, no offense to rural farms. I’m low on coffee this week. I’m just gonna I’m going light. I’m going with Liberty pure solutions, fresh water in my house in a non sponsor complex, not even orange for my the orange and purple goggles that I’ll need. Luke Jones joins us now. He is back from the Wild Wood. I’ve never been to Wildwood. I don’t know if we’ve ever admitted that to you after 17 years and how many years we’ve been doing this together where you go off to the beach in July or you’re with your family. All Star Game week. I don’t think you missed the damn thing last week, a couple of wins against Texas and then on Sunday, but I don’t think you missed anything. How was wild where’s your tan? By the way? You’re supposed to be in the sun all week.
Luke Jones 01:33
I’ve got a tan. I don’t know. I mean, it’s yeah, I’ve tried to cover us that SPF 30 on my face and all that but no, it was a great week and good to get away for a little while Good to see the Orioles win two out of three over the weekend as they come off the all star break as you kind of look around the rest of the Al east and even looking at Cleveland in terms of the best team in the Al Orioles in good shape even after Sunday’s loss but always good to get a little bit of a respite. Obviously this club was struggling at the end of not the end of the first half because we’ve long since passed the midway point but clearly scuffling they get the almost a miracle win against the Yankees to close out going into the all star break and then they come out and get two out of three from Texas and we’ve talked about the Rangers at different points over the last month buyer’s or seller’s are they going to get up off the mat? Houston vac can first place all that in the ALS meanwhile, the rangers have kind of were desperate to get off to a good start and they lose two out of three. So Orioles look, are they on pace to win 108 games like they were a month ago or whatever it was no, but they’re still in really good shape. We’re going to talk a lot about the trade deadline and a lot of conjecture and a lot of who knows what’s going to happen because there hasn’t been a ton of activity to this point around baseball but this is still a team that’s in really good shape. And yeah, the pitching there are question marks once you get past Corbin burns and Grayson Rodriguez but as we saw over the weekend, quoting burns and Grayson Rodriguez still a pretty good one two punch as the Orioles were able to take two out of three. All right, they’re off to
Nestor J. Aparicio 03:15
Miami in a couple of days. This trading deadline story is going to be the only story that matters for nine days. And we’re going to do a lot of trade talk I you know I’m gonna call everybody in the sport and then a lot of that last week as well and talking to people and the speculation around how many of the young players are going to be given up but before I do any trading stuff about the team on the field talk about what you saw at the end before the break the All Star Game break and then we’ll get to the uniforms I’m having Todd rad them on to if he’s not responsible for those hit he’s uniforms but um, concerns about the team’s inexperience last year’s version of experience where they are with starting pitching where the bullpen is. And we’ve been talking about that for six months. This Texas series Miami then they’ll come home this weekend. San Diego in this weekend, another team that sort of trying to figure out their way always this time of the year after spending a lot of money me sandiego is probably the worst case scenario have spent a lot of money don’t win anything. And I don’t know what Mr. Rubinstein’s philosophy is going to be on? Sure. I’ll wait to hear him on the Jerry Coleman podcast and I’ll get his philosophy at that point. But the philosophy this week is it has to be different than where John Angelos was. Philosophically they can win the World Series which there were very few years. You could ever say that philosophically they have the the the franchise that everyone looks at their farm system and says Why didn’t you win the crochet trade? Why didn’t you win trade acts or whatever because they can win the trade. But then the question is all right, how are we feeling about what we have? So if We start to talk about trading guys and we know the needs we know they’d like to improve on Dean Kramer on Sunday they’d like to have John means and Bradish back, they’d like to find Batista again. They’d like to find Ken Oh, from last year all over again while avoiding Fuji. Right? But how do you feel about what they’re putting out there right now? That is no trade happens. And they keep mayo and they keep Norby and they stockpile prospects. I don’t think that’s going to be the case. But I also think, is pretty stingy. And he’s seeing these Ortiz things going round. He knows the value of these players. And overpaying next week and still not winning the World Series. See San Diego see? Anaheim last year, Anaheim the last 1515 years, right. How do you feel about what they have? How do you feel about the current roster?
Luke Jones 05:55
Well, I think you have to feel pretty good. I mean, you’re talking about a team that won 101 games last year, you’re talking about a team that even even with their scuffles over the last three and a half, four weeks, they’re on a 98 win pace. I’ll put it this way. If you don’t love their current roster, then I’m not sure going out and making one or two trades is putting them over the over the hump. You know, it’s not getting them over the hump, they already have a really good roster. So that’s when you’re talking about okay, what can we do to augment? I think as far as how they looked over the last three to four weeks, I think I’ll chalk up a lot of it to the ebbs and flows of a long season. I think this rock this lineup this offense while yes, people will talk about it being reliant on the home run, which that’s still something that I don’t really understand. Because at the same time, it’s not like you get more runs for manufacturing runs or anything like that, or playing small ball, things like that. I think overall, this is still a lineup you feel really good about I think the outfield we’ve talked about a lot in terms of liking this find a little more consistency beyond what Anthony Santander has done in right field. You know, we’ve talked about it with Molins. We’ve talked about it with cows, or we’ve talked about it with Hayes. We’ve talked about it with Kyle sounds coming in. talked about it with Heston curse dad. So I, as I said to you, and I think this is a talking point that we had, I can’t remember can’t remember when exactly, but it was about the last two weeks leading into the all star break. I said, you know, I’d like to see the Orioles find our next Jordan Westbrook. And what I mean by that is of all these young players that have made their debut over the last calendar year. So going back to Couser. Last July. Want to see the next guy that really firmly establishes himself. I mean, Jordan Westbrook just got back from the all star game, right? I mean, a year ago at this time, he was looking fine, but wasn’t wasn’t an established all star caliber talent. You weren’t viewing him that way as a major league player. So I’d still like to see that. And, you know, in terms of their lineup in terms of the offense, because I see some people say, well, would they would they benefit from another bat and look? Sure you can, you can come up with all these hypothetical scenarios of, you know, right handed hitting centerfielder, for example. But I still think in terms of any Spark, any extra energy, any extra oomph they’re going to get in their lineup, I think is going to come most likely to come from, as I mentioned, a little more consistency from the guys I mentioned in the outfield, but more so, Jackson holidays can be back up here. At some point, I’m still firmly convinced about that, mainly because Jorge Mateo and remote areas, neither one of them played to a level where you’re saying I want to play them every day. And that’s not a surprise. Right. That’s, it’s kind of what we expected. I still think in terms of certainly not as an outfielder, of course, but in terms of another right handed bat, I think Kobe Mayo if he’s not traded, and that’s obviously another discussion for another segment, then I think there’s a we’re gonna see him because I think that bat is too enticing and has been too good at triple A, to not at least get a look at what that looks like, at least against left handed starters. So So I still think there’s meat on the bone there. Clearly, they need to be a little more consistent than they’ve been offensively over the last month. But the numbers still speak for themselves. I think they’re still first in the Al and slightly just a slight slightly behind the Dodgers in terms of runs per game. You don’t play almost 100 games at that level without thinking that this is still pretty good offense. Is it perfect? No, of course not perfect. We’ve talked about this a lot. Offense is down around baseball. And you know, we’ve talked about some of the big picture issues and approach and all that but this is still a line up one to nine. Okay, you get to the bottom couple spots in the order. It’s not ideal necessarily. You know, we’re not seeing Cedric Mullins have his 2021 season for example. But I think you look around baseball Most teams are pretty happy if they have a one through six or one through seven that are productive, fruitful, pretty consistent. And the Orioles have had that for the most part. So, you know, the pitching side? I don’t think you need to hear me repeat what we’ve talked about over and over and over what and we’ll, we’ll get into it and certainly talk about the tariffs. Googles of the world are the Mason Miller’s of the world that may or may not be out there. I still think that’s a big part of the trade deadline as far as who exactly is really available, and going to be available for a reasonable price, because you just said it. I don’t think it has anything to do with David Rubenstein or his payroll ideals, you know, idea over what it’s going to look like over the next three to five years. I think Mike Elias is still going to view his prospects, his minor league system as assets and as value and looking at it in terms of yes, what can we do to augment right now? And then what it’ll look like in terms of the major league roster shaking out over the next few years, he’s not going to just look at this with blinders of 2024. And then oh, well, we’ll just figure it out in a couple years. I don’t think Mike Elias operates that way, I think that much is evident at this point in time. So I’d love to
Nestor J. Aparicio 11:16
know if he’s under contract with Rubinstein for the next three or four years, you know, like if he’s here long term, or is it the end of the first contract? Or is he into a contract that, and I know, they never would never tell anybody, any secret society and all that. But that would really affect the long term thought of and we always know what the Ravens mean to cost as a job for life, right? Like he is at a job for life. Bushati, from every account, as the football thing gets going, never wants to hire a head coach never wants to hire a GM. I mean, it’s country’s got to make a decision on a president a couple of weeks. We do that every couple of years here. In most franchises, in most sports, in most places, a GM that would have these kinds of assets would say, not really worried about 26 or 27, I need to get a ring now. We’re the best team now. I have the new owner. Now. I’m at the end of my deal. Now, whatever the deal is, but I think the alias thing managing 2627 and 28. And he’s paid to do that. Now there’s no, they all are they all are they’re all paid to look out for two or three years from now. I think when you go through sports with leadership, at any level, whether it’s general manager baseball side, coaching, scouting in any sport, most people are living on the edge of one year this year and to my contract. And Mike Elias has to manage this in the way that we’ve always seen the ravens, where we would say I can take that second round pick. And maybe the kid from Washington isn’t the starter in the beginning of the year. But you think about where you’re going to be two or three years from now with an inexpensive player play. And this is for all the sports, young cheap guys filling a position over and playing like a superstar playing like $100 million player for a little while. Whether it’s Connor Henderson, whether it’s Adley rutschman. And it was last week for this franchise, or whether it’s Corbin burns getting paid fair, but not crazy. And certainly you’re not into him for five or six years that they have this thing going on. But so much of it for me is where Elias his head is for am I going to be managing this and 26 and 27? Or is it someone else’s problem? I’m assuming he thinks he’s here until Gunnar Henderson’s no longer here. And he’ll manage it that way. And if he manages it that way, it’s not about money. It’s but it is about can we win right now because as some of these teams like the padres, they thought they they had made it two years ago or three years ago, or they were there and the Orioles made the playoffs last year and had the best record. I think there’s a lot of high level decisions here for the next couple of years. When I look at our T’s and C’s, the second best rookie and whatever I saw some chart this week. And St can’t give too many of those guys up. You can’t give too many of those guys up. And three years now. You’re paying Richmond 40 million and Henderson 50 million, and all of a sudden you delta catch her away this week, or you don’t Kobe Mayo way. And he’s now performing as a 35 homerun guy doing all of those things for another team, and you rented a pitcher that’s gone, that you know that that’s gone two years from now. That’s cool if you got the system and people are coming through. But there’s a lot of questions about all of this for me if I had a media pass, and I had real access to ask about the owner to ask about the executive staff to ask about this transition of ownership and to see what the real strategy is over the long term because you’d ever knew that with Angelo’s. I’d like to know the Rubenstein philosophy as I’m up on the trading deadline on a team, he owns a team that’s in first place, a team with all these prospects, I’d like to get some sort of philosophical thought and we’ll get it by August 1, it’s going to happen whether the trade happens or not. But this is a massive 10 day period for the future of the franchise in, we’re going to trade everybody away and try to win, they’re not going to do that. Or we’re going to make one strategic trade. And we’re going to go all in on Scoble. And we’re going to get rid of a couple of real prospects guys were we like or know of, and maybe even a veteran guy get three four guys up. I’m fascinated, because this is where the rubber meets the road in tough tough times for franchises to make tough, tough decisions that when you’ve arrived, the decisions of what you do with your assets, young players, and the decisions what you do with your money, let alone what happens on the field, let alone the Jordan Westberg and Adley rutschman and gunner Henderson are healthy and performing. That’s the only way they’re gonna win a World Series. But this is a really telling 10 days in oral history for me. Yeah,
Luke Jones 16:08
I mean, I think it definitely has the potential to be that I’m glad you just made the last point, though, about what’s going to happen on the field. And that’s where we, you know, when I hear someone make comments about, well, you’re all in or this is the year you’re going for it and and all and all that. And I know what people mean by that, and I understand that sentiment, I mean, my goodness, how many times have I quipped and joked with you that you just have to see the gray hair on my temples to remember how long it’s been since the Orioles have been in the World Series as I was born two weeks before the Scott McGregor pitched a shutout in game five in Philadelphia. But when you say all in
Nestor J. Aparicio 16:42
I don’t know how I don’t even look like next week in a trading day. You know, I don’t write letters, oh, my God, they traded half their system away. I don’t really want them to do that, you know? Right.
Luke Jones 16:53
And that doesn’t guarantee you anything. We a lot of times, and I understand what people mean by this. But we have to remember, when you look at how baseball, the postseason is structured, especially now, where you’re talking about these best the three wildcard series best of five, division D LDS even every advantage
Nestor J. Aparicio 17:15
to the 88
Luke Jones 17:15
when t it is right, so So how do you navigate that as a team that won 101 games last year? Or the Orioles who are still as we’re going into this Miami series, best team in the Al still on track to be the number one seed or at least a top two seed? How do you navigate that? So from from the standpoint of all right, looking at it, and look, I’m not saying that this is gospel in terms of how the odds and playoffs and World Series odds and chances go but looking at baseball reference, you know, as of Monday morning after this taken two out of three from Texas, they have the Orioles at 99.1% to make the postseason. They don’t have to do anything at the trade deadline to make the playoffs at this point. That’s I feel confident in saying that. Yeah, I get it. They haven’t played as well over the last month as they played prior to that. But it’s not as though they’ve been in a freefall in the way that you might describe the Yankees a little bit more, you know, and the Yankees having their issue with issues with the rays over the weekend. But I still with a high high high degree highest degree of confidence. Even if they do nothing over the next week, they’re gonna be in the playoffs. So you started that? Right. That’s that’s your jumping off point. And you look at them, okay. They’re there percent their odds to win the World Series. And again, this is according to baseball reference. I’m not saying I’m just using one example for this exercise. It has them at 11.8% to win the World Series. Now, I would probably say compared to what you’re seeing on sports books and other sites. That’s probably on the high side, quite frankly, when you just understand how postseason works. And specifically baseball postseason works. It’s probably on the high side. So let’s just use 10%. As just like a real easy way of looking at this. So have
Nestor J. Aparicio 19:07
to be this good. 10 years in a row to win one time? Wow. Yeah,
Luke Jones 19:11
sure. That’s where it’s tough, right? And look, I’ve said this about trades, you know, forever
Nestor J. Aparicio 19:16
mentioned every year that they stunk and had 0% chance of winning, you know, in the 33 years, I’ve been on the air, they’ve had a 0% chance of winning the World Series in 28 of those years. Like literally, they could not win the World Series in most of those years. This is the first time since I’ve owned this radio station, maybe 14. You could say they can win the four series. Okay, fair enough. That’s one time and 26 years that you felt like I have a 1% Did I have a chance that I have a throw? And now you’re this good? And you’re saying well, you have to be this good? 10 times don’t win at once. Wow. I mean, it’s math, but
Luke Jones 19:52
it just it speaks to how difficult it is. And look, we can go back and look at the some of the best trades of the last 30 years and to come In the mind for me the Astros getting Randy Johnson and I think back to CC Sabathia going to the brewers and how incredible he was for that stretch. These are those teams even won the World Series even with those guys being so great. So it still speaks to this not being a proposition where Oh, they traded a bunch of prospects out there going to win the World Series now like that’s not how it works. Now that doesn’t
Nestor J. Aparicio 20:22
mean you don’t ever got the Randy Johnson pitch produced and by the way, I have to look that up. But
Luke Jones 20:26
he was really good to write it but they didn’t win the World Series that year. You know that for all for as great as he was. You still are dependent of nine guys in your in your lineup for guys in your postseason rotation. At least four or five stud relievers, not stud but really good relievers that you can count on. I talked about this with you recently about the bullpen and, you know, you need a big four in your bullpen for the postseason. And who are the Orioles? Big for right now? I mean, that’s the big question there, you know, without even, you know, we focus so much on the tech schools and the garret crochets of the world that that you look at the bullpen. But no, it’s just what can you do in terms of making trades? It’s not going to deplete your farm system with the understanding with the reminder that sometime there’s a free agent after this year. Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays have one more year club control? And do you really view them as everyday starting players anymore in the outfield with the way they performed? You know, this year? Those
Nestor J. Aparicio 21:27
guys in club control? Were there $10 million players? What does the team do with them in the offseason?
Luke Jones 21:33
That’s why I’m not so quick to want to trade the other young outfielders because that’s where you look at this and say, you know, is Austin Hays in the final year of arbitration going to be a proper value for what he’s giving you? Now, same with Cedric Mullins, it doesn’t mean I hate those players. But we’ve definitely seen those players take a step back in terms of being everyday kind of talents. So that’s
Nestor J. Aparicio 21:53
taking a step back in terms of players, I
Luke Jones 21:56
want to give money to put them in the lineup, just right, I don’t want to pay them 10 million, they’re not $10 million players, right? And it’s not your money. And you’re even you’re saying that. So that’s where you look at this and say, Okay, and again, they’re gonna make a couple of trades. I’m fully confident in that. But I’ll continue to be skeptical that it’s going to be these monster additions. First of all, I just don’t know if that many monster additions are even out there to make right. You know, we’ve talked about crochet, I’ve said it to you. And we’ve seen We’ve heard a little bit of buzz about the Orioles and the Dodgers and Tarik scoobo. You know, to me, he’s the big fish, as it pertains to starting pitchers that maybe will be out there for the right deal. But you know, are the are the tiger is going to move them, or the tiger is going to be reasonable about trying to move him. I don’t think Mike Elias is going to trade three of his top five prospects for him. I think you’ll get one of those guys. And the question then is, okay, who are pieces two, three, and maybe four in that deal? You know, do they involve some other major league talent swapping? I mean, you know, again, you get into all those issues that there’s there’s just a lot of moving parts to how this works. And that’s why to going back to your point about Rubinstein not knowing what the payroll flexibility is not knowing what the vision is, from his perspective, in terms of telling Mike Elias, hey, you know, we can Trey Connor Norby type prospects who are still gonna be really attractive, even if they’re not like the Orioles, elite of elite prospects, they’re still really good prospects to other teams. We can trade some guys like that, because you’re gonna be able to spend a little bit more. And that’s not to say that, you know, we’re not going to spend $300 million a year but we’ll have a much more competitive, higher payroll than we’ve had over the last five years. If you are working from that understanding Nesta, then yeah, you do have the confidence and the, you know, the conviction to say, we can move some of these pieces for deals that make sense for us. So I still think it’s probably going to be no, not probably they’re definitely going to add at least one bullpen arm I’ve said for probably since spring training, or at least since Tyler Wells was out of the picture and certainly not going to be in the bullpen that I’d like to see to bullpen arms added because I I still don’t know who I trust beyond Craig Kimbrel last last outing against the Yankees aside has been really good since mid May. I’ve said it a lot. Jacob Webb has probably been the guy I’ve trusted the most which is a compliment to him. Yes. But also an indictment on you know Cano not being quite as good and CNL Perez having issues you know, Perez had issues over the weekend in Texas and just not having Danny cool mouth out there. So you know, they’ve got out a couple bullpen arms that’s obvious. Rotation look scruples the guy that I am trying my hardest to get but I just I’m still not convinced the Tigers are gonna move on and if they Are Are they expecting Kobe Mayo Samuel besides do and Heston? couristan? You know, are they going to be to that degree where you say, I don’t know if my clients will do that? I think we’ll trade one of those number one stars to number one starters. Right? Sure, sure. But but at the same time in the same way, to a lesser extent than Kara crochet, but no tech school, we’ll go look at his history, he’s got some injury history as well. So that doesn’t mean you don’t do it. That doesn’t mean that that disqualifies it from happening, you know, if you’re the Orioles. But, you know, I guess the prevailing point that I keep trying to come back here to is, there is no short thing. And for everyone who wants the Orioles to go out and get all these pieces. I just don’t know if that’s going to happen to that degree. And that’s where, you know, what is the vision? What is, you know, where is Rubenstein, where’s Mike Elias in terms of what Rubinstein has told him in terms of payroll and what that means. And even if you have carte blanche, even if you have every flexibility every every dollar at your disposal in terms of realistic options that are going to be out there to add to add an existing contract from a veteran player to know who exactly is out there that’s moving the needle. We talked about this at fade Lee’s just a couple of weeks ago. I went through and looked at a lot of rosters as far as teams that I thought were going to be sellers, and trying to project that out. And it’s still tricky, because you still have some teams that are in that in between right now that over the next week still don’t know exactly how they’re going to proceed. But not just there’s not a ton of guys out there that necessarily going to move the needle from 10% to suddenly, oh, you bumped up to 12% Yeah, there’s no one out there that suddenly the Orioles become a 5050 proposition. The winter World Series like that doesn’t exist, right. So that’s where you’re looking at this in terms of what are you willing to give up? And then what are you actually capable of bringing back that’s going to really move the needle? Of course, they need another starting pitcher. That’s evident. You know, even though Sunday, Dean Kramer gives up a three run homer? Well, they only score two. So yeah, the offense was more of the issue on Sunday. But I think we all everyone sees a dean Kramer’s not the ideal number three starter, you can be a dean Kramer guy and acknowledge that but, you know, again, who’s out there that’s going to be closer to cut what Kyle Bradish could be. And not just a marginal upgrade over Dean Kramer. And that’s where, you know, I look at that and say, you know, I’m not sure that you’re going to get, you know, unless you land school. I’m not sure you’re going to get that guy that’s going to be dramatically better than that. And that’s where I’ve kept coming back to add bullpen add bullpen add bullpen. But even on that front, you know, I’ve heard Mason Miller’s name talked about, that’s fine. But what exactly is Oakland slash Las Vegas slash Sacramento going to be willing to accept to part with someone who has a lot of club control left? So you know, you’re not talking about a rental there. So it’s just it’s a lot right now. But I’ll continue to come back to my overall point in terms of where the Orioles are right now. If we’re talking about them playing in late October, and we’re talking about them in the LCS, we’re talking about them going to the World Series, for the first time in 41 years, I still will say it’s going to be way, way way more about the guys that they already have. And that’s where keep in mind, that’s a good thing. That means they have a really good team already. So I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out. I still err on the side of tempering expectations. Because again, I just, you know,
Nestor J. Aparicio 28:45
we’re not expecting blockbusters, we’re
Luke Jones 28:47
all really is right. I mean, I just think it really is a seller’s market. I think at
Nestor J. Aparicio 28:52
the end of the week, I’m not expecting Scoble and crochet and Mason Miller to walk no. Not happening. You know, like,
Luke Jones 29:00
if one of those guys happens, I’m still pretty surprised just based on you know, I don’t mean to Elias gave up a lot. Yeah, but because we talked I mean, the White Sox This is the same team that held on to Delancey set the trade deadline last year. Right. And I mean with crochet, I mean, you know, I mentioned schools injury history, at least Google has been a starter for multiple years. I mean, crochet, there’s just so much on how do you navigate that? I mean, I feel crochet, and I’m not the only one who said this. Lots of people have said this crochet acquiring him. That’s almost a move for the future more so than how, what exactly is his role going to be come September in October, knowing that he’s already blown so far past his career innings and I mean, yeah, you’ll use them and yeah, you’ll pitch them but is he going to be a guy that you’re just penciling in every fifth day the rest of the year? I don’t think so. So, there’s that. Because if you’re if you’re, you know, the whole point is if you’re saying you’re all in that’s the kind of talent you’re looking Forehand. Look, he’s an incredible talent. But how do you navigate that? And what does that mean for the rest of the season for you? And what does that mean, in terms of trying to keep them healthy? So and what are you giving up to give yourself that problem? Right? So that’s where I’ve said, if you’re going for a big fish, you know, it’s Google. But I mean, again, I don’t know if Detroit’s going to be willing to do it. And what are they willing to accept as so much of this, to me
Nestor J. Aparicio 30:29
is about burns. And about like the fact that they’re not going to sign him and give him money, that if you’re gonna go giving away real farm pieces, you better get to me they started for next year. And it may be Grayson Rodriguez is that guy, but you know what I’m saying the top of the rotation guy that enters went burns exits, because you’re not going to get burns $300 million. Right,
Luke Jones 30:50
right. But at the same time, I would say you can’t, if you can do that in the process of what happens over the next week, then great. But keep in mind, you also don’t pitch games in November, December, January, February or March or until the end of March. So
Nestor J. Aparicio 31:05
it’s the guy you want to see here for five years. Is he a guy that you really want to see them get a lot of money to? Because so much of this trading deadline, it’s the jigsaw puzzle of yeah, this doesn’t have anything to do bro Burgess could start game one of every day. Yeah. And then he’s going to be gone and Halloween, and and you’re not going to have them anymore. If you get your feelings hurt losing game six of the LCS, whatever that would be that this next 10 days is about fortifying the rotation for next year, especially if you’re giving away key key pieces, the the nor B’s in the Mayo’s and not holiday but giving away any of the key pieces, you better get a starting you better get a starter for next year’s rotation. Because I’m already looking at that.
Luke Jones 31:49
Well, then you’re kind of making an argument against Mike Elias going all in at the deadline, then I mean, I hear what you’re saying. And look if you can do that. And that makes sense, then great. But you can also get your opening opening day starter on February 1, like like the Orioles did this past year, right? I mean, it’s not like these prospects suddenly disappear once the season’s over
Nestor J. Aparicio 32:10
or you deal for crochet in the offseason. Right. Exactly. Right. Right. Right.
Luke Jones 32:14
I mean, so. So I hear you on that. And look, I’ve I’ve expressed that sentiment at different times. I mean, if that’s something that makes sense, but I don’t think you can force that. I think that’s where you run into trouble there. Where if you’re, again, you’re trying to thread the needle here in terms of maximizing your chances to win right now. But also understanding that you do have the future. And look, if you’re if you’re talking in those terms, if you’re thinking about your opening day starter and your potential replacement for Corbin burns don’t work under an artificial deadline because Corbin Burns will be here through the end of the year, assuming he’s healthy, of course. So your deadline for your opening day starter next year is the end of the offseason. Right? So, so So I hear that. And of course, if you can land Terex Google and great, right, I mean, he’s got club control, he’s got a little bit more of a track record in terms of as a starter than crochet, although, you know, he’s got some injury history as well. Most pitchers do at this point in time. So at this point, it’s kind of tough to even try to use that as you know, deciding factor necessarily all the time. But you know, that that’s where it’s just, it’s tough because again, I I go through and I saw a report you know, Jon morosi was talking about how the the Orioles having some interest in some reds pitchers and go look at him their league average pitchers, you know, I mean, could that help fortify the next two and a half months in terms of what they do and the rotation and, you know, adding another piece to the bullpen? Well, sure, but those aren’t guys that are moving the needle,
Nestor J. Aparicio 33:50
you know, average bullpen still better than some of the guys we’ve had.
Luke Jones 33:54
Ah, see, I don’t know about that. I mean, I think they need swing and miss. I’d be more inclined instead of you know, from that standpoint, if you look at the era and you’re looking at different guys who you know, maybe they’re striking out eight, maybe nine guys per nine innings. I think they need more upside in the bullpen in terms of swing and miss. That’s why you know, we talked about Copic from the White Sox just a couple of weeks ago and I’m just using him more as an example. But you know, swing and miss stuff. Era doesn’t look good. But you know that that those are the types of arms and I think you’re you’re not targeting as your primary targets as your first choice. But I think philosophically what the Orioles tried to do with Fuji last year, I think that’s something that you’re still looking for because you meet guys swing and miss right you need guys that can miss bats. kynos An example of this and look Cano struck has struck out you know, his strikeout rates gone up a touch, you know, at least last I looked at it a touch from where it was a year ago. But he’s still not that guy that is striking people out like Batista, for example. And when you come in the game with an error, inherited runners, which Cano has had issues with, you gotta be able to strike some people out and they just don’t have a lot of that in their bullpen right now. So is there a bullpen arm or two out there that you know that the more traditional conventional stats don’t look, you know, the era might look a little shaky, might be a little higher than you’d like. But you look at the swing and miss and you look at the strikeouts and you say, Oh, is there a simple tweak there? Or is this a guy that’s pitched really well, the last five or six weeks that we can land for a little bit less in terms of prospects, and we think we can cobble together two awesome months from that guy. You know, I think that’s something that looks attractive. And that’s certainly something that’s way cheaper than giving up the farm for Mason Miller, for example. So I’m not saying that that’s the only thing they’ll do. But I think those are the kind of moves that are kind of the under the radar moves, because we’ve talked about it Nestor, I mean, bullpen, bullpen arms are so difficult to predict. And I think especially when you acquire someone in the middle of the season, and you change, you know, their pitching coach and the guys that are around them and their workload and the way their manager uses them, I think sometimes you’ll get something thinking that’s going to be something that’s really, really good. And then that doesn’t work out so well. And there have been other examples of a guy that maybe doesn’t have the best year and maybe isn’t looking so hot, statistically speaking, and you go acquire them and you tweak one thing and you say, Hey, throw this pitch a little bit more why? Why don’t you throw that pitch a little more. And that other pitch that’s gotten you into trouble? Throw that a little bit less? I mean, that’s where I think it’s always interesting when you make these trades in the middle of the season, as opposed to the offseason where there’s that easy transition time. So you know, it’s another factor. I don’t know how this is going to shake out exactly. As I’ve said over and over. If you’re going to ask me, whether I’m going to be overwhelmed or underwhelmed. I’m probably going to lean towards the underwhelm side because I just think Mike Elias is not going to deal too much in terms of future value to incrementally improve his World Series chances for 2024 but I think there’s very clearly some needs here you know that this is a really good baseball team. I’ll continue to say that and it’s still about more so about the guys that are already on this roster, but yeah, how can you not look at the rotation say they need another arm? I mean, just look at this Miami series, Albert’s Flores and then TBA TBA right. I mean, because Povich is down in the minors after be an option right before the break and didn’t wasn’t pitching all that well, anyway. Yeah. Who’s it gonna be? I don’t know. Or they have an off day. So are they just going to skip their fifth starter spot for this turn through the rotation? So when you’re talking in those terms? Yeah, you need to make a move. So he, Mike Elias knows that but you know, the irony is, again, you kind of look at some of the names that are out there. And I don’t think they’re gonna acquire Jack Flaherty again. For example, you know, like,
Nestor J. Aparicio 38:09
that’s a cautionary tale that I was gonna bring that up, we can wrap with that because we’re going to talk more about this Luke Jones series Baltimore loop, we’re getting the Maryland crabcake tour back out on the road. We’ll be at state fair on the 13th of August. I’m also doing a whole bunch of dates with Costas and we have a new sponsor pizza John’s they have a crab cake as well. We’re gonna have a crab cake store. Stop that in Essex in September so big thanks everybody down there. Make sure you get over pizza John’s and take advantage of that ice cream bar. Take advantage of my favorite pizza, which I’m glad to say pineapple, pepperoni and ham imported ham. Make sure you get the point they imported from outside Essex at Pizza John’s Luke’s gonna be around all week. He’s out on the front of Baltimore positive this week. We’re revving the engines back up for the trading deadline. The ravens are back out on the field knowings Mills, you’ll be hearing a variety of ravens voices or in almost selling a sports radio station here. Don’t tell the people over one to five, seven but but we’re new to business around here. It’s only our 33rd year doing this. So we’ll be in for a real trading deadline discussion of going around major league baseball this week. Luke’s gonna be out knowings Mills this week. The Orioles get home this weekend against San Diego. I am Nestor we are wn st am 1570 Towson Baltimore and we never stop talking Baltimore positive
How will Orioles approach this MLB trading deadline?
Baltimore Positive
Baltimore Positive is the vision and the creative extension of four decades of sharing the love of local sports for this Dundalk native and University of Baltimore grad, who began his career as a sportswriter and music critic at The News American and The Baltimore Sun in the mid 1980s. Launched radio career in December 1991 with Kenny Albert after covering the AHL Skipjacks. Bought WNST-AM 1570 in July 1998, created WNST.net in 2007 and began diversifying conversations on radio, podcast and social media as Baltimore Positive in 2016. nes@baltimorepositive.com
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