With the late addition of Kyle Gibson to remedy the loss of Grayson Rodriguez to the starting rotation to start the campaign, Luke Jones and Nestor ponder the Orioles’ suddenly bottom heavy pitching prospects with injuries and one-year, veteran pitchers trying to keep a contender in games while Mike Elias and the organization regroup on the road to Opening Day.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ pitching prospects, highlighting the $28 million investment for Charlie Morton, Tamayo Ki Sagano, and Kyle Gibson, who will earn $5 million. Gibson, 37, is expected to join the team in Toronto. The Orioles’ rotation is described as bottom-heavy, with Zach Eflin as a potential number three starter. Concerns were raised about the durability and effectiveness of older starters like Morton and Gibson. The conversation also touched on the team’s reliance on young position players like Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday to carry the offense.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles, pitching prospects, Kyle Gibson, Charlie Morton, Kade Povich, bullpen, Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holt, offense, rotation, durability, financial flexibility, position talent.
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio, Speaker 1
8
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S T am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We are Baltimore positive. And it is admin day week. We are headed to Toronto, Canada. I got the passport out. No Maryland crab cake tour. This week we had like one that was twice as good last week, Pete Johns, that will be holding up all week. We will be at Faith Lee’s next Wednesday. That is a game six, Game Two at home. Hopefully there’s no rain. I know there’ll be no rain in Toronto. Inside the Sky Dome, Lucas is mittens packed. I’m taking my scarf. I am looking for Getty Lee. I will not be looking for gunner Henderson, but however, might see Kyle Gibson there when we get there on Thursday, Luke, we talked a lot of baseball on Friday with Dave shining of The Washington Post. And you’ll hear all that and see it all platform here at Baltimore positive. And as we get up on the witching hour of the one plane going to Norfolk and one plane going to Toronto might be a different plane by the time we get there Thursday than it is on Monday morning. Luke,
Luke Jones 01:07
yeah. I mean the Kyle Gibson signing as I wrote at Baltimore positive.com it’s really more of the same for the Orioles. You look at what they’ve invested for the 2025 season. You’re talking $28 million for Charlie Morton and Tamayo ki Sagano, and now an extra $5 million for Kyle Gibson, who is not going to be ready to pitch. It’s going to be a while. He’s thrown some bullpens. I don’t think it’s quite the same as the first day of spring training for him, but he’s going to take a little while here. In fact, the Orioles, over the weekend, confirmed Kade povidge going to be the number five starter, and looks like he’s going to get the ball for the home opener. But Kyle Gibson clearly someone they know, clearly someone who’s been durable while, while I always provide the caveat that pitchers are durable until they aren’t anymore, but he has been durable, and it’s a known commodity. It’s someone who was very well liked in their clubhouse a couple years ago. To a man, lots of those young guys talked about Kyle Gibson, even though you look at his numbers. I mean, he won 15 games, but didn’t have a sparkling era or anything like that. We know what he is. I mean, he’s another number four, number five starter in a rotation of number four number five starters, as I coined it at Baltimore, positive.com I think I’m going to call this a bottom heavy starting rotation. I think that’s what it is. At this point in time, you have Zach Eflin, who is probably a number three starter for plenty of contenders, and then you have a bunch of four and fives. Now doesn’t mean those four and fives can’t get the job done well enough with an offense that has the kind of ceiling that the Orioles do. And obviously we’ve talked a lot about the bullpen. We’ll continue to talk about the bullpen, but it’s where they are right now, and like it or not, this is where they are starting the season, and we’ll see how it evolves over the course of the summer. But, you know, for Kyle Gibson, $5 million mean it’s not a lucrative investment.
Nestor Aparicio 03:09
Why was he available? That’s the first thing I’m wondering. I mean, he’s 37
Luke Jones 03:13
8and he’s a league average starter. You know what I mean? Like, I mean, it’s he acknowledged. I mean it’s something. I mean he pitched in St Louis last year. I mean, it’s home for him. He acknowledged he contemplated retirement a little bit this off season, especially when the phone’s not calling. I mean, guys like this are, you know, they’re, they’re no one’s first choice. Typically, at this point, it wasn’t the Orioles first choice. I mean, they, they’d much rather have Grayson Rodriguez healthy and Trevor Rogers at least available as an option. And
Nestor Aparicio 03:45
it’s a damning thing. No one’s first choice, right? You know what? I mean? That’s why it was, like, the availability of some of these guys who are veteran guys that if they are going to help you, having them in spring training helps a lot. Just having them hanging around, I think a little bit like that’s part of the value of the whatever you think you’re getting out of a that guy. And, you know, I was born into this with Rick Sutcliffe right in 92 and then through all of the eras, how many of these kinds of guys you want to bring in? But also a guy wants to win at the end and wants to pick a place where we talked about Coleus Campbell last week on the football side, you just want to, like be somewhere where you’re showing up in hotels and stuff this far in with $100 million in the bank, with a reason to wake up in Milwaukee in July with your arm hurt, unless you’re going to win. And Kyle Gibson, to me is, you know, he I’ll take him as a pile diver. I mean, la Far be it for me to anybody, listen to you and shine and all down on the team, that I actually can find the ray of orange sunshine in signing 37 year, but I am a little like they’re bottom fishing. I mean, I don’t even, you know. I mean, I don’t know what else to say. You. The only way to top fish is to pay guys $200 million in this sport. Well, I mean, yes
Luke Jones 05:05
and no. I mean, of course, those are the sexy moves. Those are the flashy moves. That’s the move that everyone, or not everyone, but at least a large portion of the fan base and baseball media wanted them to do. I’ve told you my reservations, going back to even last June about re signing Corbin burns at the rate that I thought it was going to require, or anyone else you know, there’s certainly a lot of risk there, as we’ve pointed out. As we talked about it at Pizza John’s late last week, the idea of investing that kind of money knowing that all these pitchers break at some point. So I think what’s become evident here. And look, I am not saying that this is optimal. I’m not saying this is the way I would do it, but I think it’s pretty apparent where the Orioles are, and I will continue to point out the kind of wishy washy approach at developing pitching when they haven’t really drafted a lot of pitchers early. But I think what we’re seeing is the Orioles clearly have a type here now, Corbin Burns has been the exception, but even that was a one year commitment, right? That was not trading premier top 15 prospects in baseball. You know, Joey Ortiz was a fringe top 100 guy. DL Hall, at one point, was considered more than that, but I think the Orioles, I think they kind of told you what they thought about DL Hall, and the Milwaukee Brewers have found out the same thing, he can’t stay healthy. So that was, you know, kind of the exception here. But even with that, that was a trade for a one year commitment, and then you see what happens after that. They they were in on burns. But we know burns clearly prioritized playing on the West Coast, and the Orioles didn’t offer enough to make him change his mind on that front. So it’s water under the bridge at this point, he’s not coming back. But everyone else, start with Jordan miles, Kyle Gibson two years ago. You know, go down the list of what they did this year in signing a 35 year old Tomoyuki Sagano, who’s has carries a different kind of intrigue, and we’re going to see what that looks like. Ultimately, Charlie Morton’s 41 years old, and now they bring back Kyle Gibson at age 37 so I think what we’re seeing here is one there’s very much a risk averse approach. But I think when you also look at the fact that these are all guys who have been innings eaters, these are guys that, for the most part, with some exceptions here and there, have been pretty durable, at least for large stretches of their career. I feel like Mike Elias is trying his best here without spending lucrative, long term money and making that kind of a commitment to build a rotation that survives. Now, in the process of trying to survive, you need to make sure you have enough to be able to thrive, right? I mean, you don’t want it’s great to have guys that are going to make 30 starts, but if they all have sub five eras, you know, that could be
Nestor Aparicio 08:03
a lot of eight to six games in the seventh inning. You know,
8Luke Jones 08:07
they’re very well could be right and but I also I can understand where they’re coming from here, because you do look at the state of baseball and look the fact that they signed Kyle Gibson, is that maybe an indicator that they don’t have confidence in Grayson Rodriguez coming back much sooner rather than later? I mean, maybe you could. I think it’s fair to at least wonder that at this point in time is he’s just starting to play catch here over the last several days, we know he’s not going to be back. You know, it’s not like he’s going to be back for the first home stand. You know, I’d be surprised if we’d see him. You know, to me, the best case scenario would maybe be the very end of April. You know, when you kind of look at how a spring training progression looks, and the fact that he’s essentially starting over. So, you know, the fact that they signed Gibson, who himself wasn’t going to be ready to be part of the rotation right away, maybe that’s a tell that to say that they’re not counting on Grayson Rodriguez. I mean, who knows again? I don’t want to speculate too much, to make it sound like the guy’s done, but you know, it’s elbow inflammation. It’s a triceps issue. I mean, these aren’t things that you know you tweak your your hamstring and you know two weeks later you’re going to be fine. These are things that have very much an unknown to it. So you bring in Gibson, you know? I mean, you’re hoping best case scenario. I mean, think about it. For the Orioles two years ago, he did make 33 starts. He had a 473 era. He won 15 games. Why? Because he gave them enough innings to be a functional, dependable starter, and they scored a lot of runs for yeah, as you say, hit the cover off the ball two years exactly, and he picked a good year to have a to be a number four starter for the Orioles, right? Like, fine. I mean, he was fine that year, you know. And some of his, some of his peripherals, actually indicate he pitched a little bit better than that. So I had no issues with Kyle Gibson two years ago. I. Yeah, it’s not that I have a major issue with it now, but I just see a they’re signing the same picture, right? I mean, it’s, you know, Sagano was one, okay, 35 coming from Japan. There’s a certain amount of unknown, some intrigue that, hey, maybe he can kind of, you catch lightning in a bottle, and he takes the league by storm, and he makes enough adjustments that he outperforms what you know, the fact that he throws 92 miles per hour, and you know, he does have five or six pitches. So I was fine with Sagano signing. But then when you sign Charlie Morton, who,
Nestor Aparicio 10:36
you know,
Luke Jones 10:38
loved the guy for a long time. You know, guy that’s been a all star, fringe kind of guy that, at his best, drew some Cy Young votes here and there, but he’s 41 years old. I love Joe Palmer. I don’t want to see him pitch right, right, you know? And obviously you say that I love Ben McDonald, yeah. So I just look at it and again, it’s like I said, each of these guys in isolation. It’s not like I think they stink or anything like that, but you just kind of look at it collectively, and you say, Okay, I see they’re going for durability. They’re clearly minimizing their long term commitment here. They’re maintaining payroll and financial flexibility, which, as you and I have talked about, Mike Elias likes that anyway, let alone considering what the organization the the transition they’re in with TV and ballpark renovations and all that. So there, there’s a compelling argument for that. At the same time, you have this young core of players, and you’ve been in the playoffs back to back years, and you look at this rotation right now, and you say all right, in terms of navigating a season, fine, I’ll check off on that in terms of thriving and the pitching being good enough. And we’ll get to gunner Henderson in a moment, knowing he’s not going to be ready for the start of start of the season. But all of that that goes into it, I feel like you’re just once again. You’re putting a lot on the on the shoulders of your young position talent, which, let’s face it, and we said this last year at the trade deadline. We said this all last year. We said this two years ago. Ultimately, if the Orioles are going to break through and not just make the playoffs, but make a run their young stars need to be young stars. They weren’t against Kansas City, and that’s why they got swept, even though they only gave up, what, three runs in two games. I mean, it wasn’t the pitching. So it continues to default back to putting everything on the shoulders of these young guys. And look, I love their young Cora position players, and I do expect them to score a lot of runs and hit the ball. That said the last thing you want to be doing, especially early in the season, when you really want to be making some hay, and not being in a position where you’ve dug yourself a hole or anything like that, where you know you don’t want to be scoring a bunch of runs and having starters not able to get into the fifth or sixth inning. And then on the flip side of that, having guys in the bullpen not being able to protect a two or three run lead in the late innings. And when you look at what this pitching staff looks like on paper, kind of what it looked like at the beginning, but especially now, with no Grayson Rodriguez and his upside no Andrew Kittredge, and even though Brandon Hyde said Sunday that yes, Felix Bautista is going to be on the opening day roster, there’s at least been enough expressed concern there to wonder what you’re going to get. You know, doesn’t mean he won’t pitch. Doesn’t mean he’s not healthy, but how effective is he going to be? And then Sir Anthony Dominguez and the unknown of some of the other guys in there.
Nestor Aparicio 13:44
8You know, just do what do you feel good about the position talent. I
Luke Jones 13:47
mean, I love the position talent. I mean, even, you know, Gunner, he’s going to be on the IL he’s going to miss a week, he’s going to miss 10 days, maybe he misses two weeks tops, right? I mean, we’re not talking, and it’s not as though it’s a one man offense, right? I love the position talent, and don’t get me wrong, I’m not sitting here saying that they’re going to have the roast the worst rotation in baseball. I’m not sitting here saying that they’re going to be 30th and bull bullpen era. But expectations have changed around here, right? I mean, they’ve been to the playoffs twice, you know, two years in a row. I mean, well, think about it, Nestor, off the top of your head, when was the last time the Orioles made the postseason three straight years. Um, 7170 71 Yeah, yeah. I mean, 6970 I just
Nestor Aparicio 14:33
had to do it. 7370 470-983-8096, 97 4050, yeah. I’m doing it. Okay. Then of course. And of course, you know, obviously you have three questions opening Dave, no, but I’m thinking of getting Lee right now navigate my passport. But the point I’m
Luke Jones 14:49
making here is that the bar has been raised yet. You look at where the state of their pitching staff right now and looks like alias couldn’t foresee everything that’s happened. Since the start of spring training. But again, this goes back to, did you do enough? Do you ever defend
8Nestor Aparicio 15:05
him and even say, did he do enough? Like, you didn’t like what he did last year, but like means Bradish, I mean the injuries that they’ve sustained at the top of the rotation. Yeah. Hey, you don’t just go out and replace Cy Young candidates. And he did it last year with Corbin burns, of course, and they and they gave away prospects and or a prospect. In that case, I like they went all in last year on a one, couldn’t sign him. And now the wheels are coming off the car because the young Jim Palmer’s storm Davis, right now. You know what I mean? I don’t. I don’t. I can use any of the vernacular you want. Rocky Coppinger, I don’t know the guy that has got to get there. He’s got to be the horse, and they can’t get into the hill on opening day. So you’re already atrophying starts. I mean, what are you going to get at him? 24 starts. 20 starts. I don’t know. I mean, it’s thinking about Bradish last year and babying Tyler wells and dude in a perfect world means Bradish wells were at the top of their rotation. Rodriguez is trying to break in as a three. They never have Elaine. You know, they’ve had to deal and deal and spend money and spend more money on Japanese guys and Charlie Morton and now Kyle Gibson, because their guys arms are falling off. Yeah,
Luke Jones 16:24
look. And to be clear, when I was critical last year, it was much more on the bullpen side their rotation. I mean, my goodness, you acquired Corbin burns, right? And the one thing that I said at that point in time, as we kind of learned what the timeline was for Bradish, I did wonder if there was a thought or an expectation or a very strong possibility, that they knew that Bradish, I mean, they knew his UCL was damaged in late January, early February, that was right around when they, you know, they acquired Corbin burns, I believe on February 1. That was the only point I made. At that point, I had no issues with their rotation, or what he did with the rotation last year. For me, it was much more. There was a five year track record of Craig Kimbrel not being very reliable and being very up and down. And I thought they didn’t do enough with their bullpen. That’s that’s what it was, more so
Nestor Aparicio 17:15
they liked it more than you did. They did sure and looked it.
Luke Jones 17:19
8Hey, the Phillies paid Craig Kimbrell the year before that, right? So it’s not as though, you know, I mean, you’re talking about a guy who probably is going to be in the Hall of Fame at some point in time. So anyway, bringing it back to the present, you know, this isn’t me saying that Mike Elias is terrible at his job. This isn’t me saying that, you know that there aren’t some challenges here. There are. But at the same time, I just look at this right now, and it just feels like we’re they’re already talking about counting on a lot of ifs and maybes, and they haven’t even thrown a pitch yet. I mean, the season hasn’t even started yet. So, you know, again, maybe this, this approach of investing depth. You know, investing in depth and you have a bottom heavy rotation, maybe it works out. And as I wrote at Baltimore positive.com Let’s, let’s call a spade a spade, the Orioles team that won 101 games two years ago. It’s not as though they resembled the 1971 Orioles that, Orioles team in 2014 it’s not as though they had bonafide ace, bonafide number two number right? I mean, Chris Tillman was the ace of that team. Chris Tillman was what Zach Effen is a decade later, right? I mean, Chris Tillman at his best, let’s say, you know, before the shoulder issues and everything. So, you know, I just look at it and yeah, I’d be lying to you if I said I didn’t have some concern. I’d be lying to you if I said I was as optimistic now as I was on February 5. That said I’m not sitting here saying that the season’s doomed. And if I were being paid to cover the New York Yankees right now, I’d be talking about their rotation issues and injuries they’ve had and some of the health concerns. The difference is, however they’re dealing or they’re very much counting on a bunch of old guys to hold on and to try to hold on to their diminishing skills and to stay healthy and bounce back in some cases, whereas with the Orioles position talent, yeah, there’s always going to be some unknown. And that’s not to say that developments line perfectly linear, and you’re always going to be ascending, but, boy, I still feel like there’s a lot of meat on the bone in terms of this young position group to get better, and if they take the steps forward, assuming gunner comes back, and by April 15, he’s in the lineup, and he’s fine, and there’s no lingering effects. And Adley rutschman Looks like the Adley rutschman We saw from the first two calendar years of him in the big leagues, which he’s had a really good spring. And you go down the list, and Colton cowser takes the next step. Jordan westburg takes the next step. And we see about Jackson holidays. Had a really nice spring. We see about Heston kerstad. You know, I just rattled off six, seven names there, and that’s, that’s not even counting Cedric Mullins, that’s not even counting mount castle. That’s not even counting Ryan O’Hearn, right? I mean, there’s a lot of Tyler O’Neill, who was their big off season signing. So there’s still a lot to like on the position side, not that it’s perfect, but there’s a lot to like. So my concern is, boy, you’re really counting a whole lot on that. And I just feel like that’s, you know, did it, does it have to be this way, that that’s my question? Or, you know, could you have a better pitching pitching staff? And look, you know, I mean, some of this is also, you know, especially with Batista. And you and I talked about this at length. So I don’t want to rehash it too much, because we talked about it at length when we were out at Pizza John’s. But you know, he’s 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery. There’s the John means thing, you know, and how that played out does not
Nestor Aparicio 21:01
Batista is going to eat up all of an inning every three days at this point. Like I’m worried about their innings, and that’s what I’m worried about with all of these chunky starters who are 100 years old getting into trouble in the fourth inning, because none of them are ever getting to the sixth, they’re going to be in trouble by the second or the third. There’s no no hit stuff there. There’s going to be wood on the ball. I mean, like I saw gip, you know what? I mean, like a five era is a five era is a five era. And guys that are going to give you 120 to 140 innings, no matter what you pay them, and Sugano might be different. You might get more out of him, you know. I mean, there might be more on that. But Morton is, you know, Morton and Gibson, to me, I look at those guys and say, you try to win a pennant with those guys. I mean, really well, when your ball pen sucks and it’s thin,
Luke Jones 21:57
well, it comes down to this, if they’re going to give you a five era, then, yeah, it’s probably not going to go very well if they can give you a four two era, which Kyle Gibson gave you a four
Nestor Aparicio 22:08
point subtle. That’s a subtle difference, but it’s defense. That’s a walk. That’s, you know, right? It’s a little bit everything,
8Luke Jones 22:16
right? No doubt that’s being able to command your pitches. I mean, that’s, you know, that’s one other thing. When you look at Zach Eflin Sagano, go look at their career walk rates. I mean, effin in the Major League Sagano, albeit in Japan, but for a long, long time, he’s been a command guy. So I’ll say this, they certainly are operating from a smaller margin per air, and that’s not even acknowledging that’s before you even acknowledge the left field being moved
Nestor Aparicio 22:41
back. They’re inviting the other team to swing the bat, so they really are sure. I mean, look, and they’ve moved defense in. This may work out. This may work out fine. This can work out fine, but let’s just going to work out fine, as if they deal for something really good in July, and that’s where I’ll kiss their asses to get my press pass back. Well, they better be in this position too. If so,
Luke Jones 23:02
if two games under Go ahead, sorry, but no, but
Nestor Aparicio 23:07
8there’s they’re not going to be 12 games up at the All Star break with this team, not with this pitching. I mean some really miracles. Charlie Moore would have to find the fountain the 10 years ago, and like, some really crazy stuff would have to happen. Hovidge would have to step up and be way in. Chan like there a lot would have to happen for them to be really good, including hit the ball. They get the cover off the ball, unless you’re scoring 13 runs a night. This pitching, dude, I’ve been around the block longer than you’ve been around the block, and you’re smarter than me, but I know a lot not looking at this pitching, and you’re you’re trying to make points where bottom heavy and a bunch of fours and fives are already 100 years old, who on their best they’re gonna get you to the fifth inning, and then somebody’s got to pitch the fifth to sixth to seventh to eighth to ninth, like
Luke Jones 23:53
no kids, that’s all baseball though. I mean, you know whether it’s dominant or whether it’s just okay, I mean that that’s baseball
Nestor Aparicio 24:02
now, but when you top of your rotations, the bottom of your rotation, and your bullpen squad, a and Brian Baker’s your option, and, like, I don’t know. I mean, it might be fun. I mean, you know, it’s, it’s not going to not be interesting. I mean, they have, like, a Big Red Machine when it comes to the offense, and really do. I mean, like, they have an offense that could be historically crazy 23 to 26 like the cubs were 10 years ago. We’re just everybody, and they got better guys than Schwarber and Rizzo and some of them, to me, they got better prospects. I mean, Jackson holidays, going to the Hall of Fame. So is Henderson. You, you’re, you’re thinking westburg might be a contract guy now, like rushman, we all still want to believe he’s rich man, even though he didn’t look that way for four months. Um, if it all comes together, maybe they’ll win a bunch of games, 10 to six and 11 to five and but, I mean, they’re not going to win three to two. I mean, they’re just not. I mean, they’re not going to beat how many. Nights in April, they’re going to give up less than four or five runs with this pitching. Right here, right now, right here, right now, cold weather, the whole deal.
Luke Jones 25:06
And again, let’s pump the brakes a little bit. This conversation is not suggesting they’re going to have the worst in baseball, right? I mean, I don’t think it’s that, but they have death. They’ve guys would have done it, but if their offense perform, and I think this is where michaelias and sigma Adele, if we’re looking behind closed doors, they’re not necessarily going to say this, right? They’re not, they’re not going to say this when they’re asked on the record.
8Nestor Aparicio 25:32
But, well, they know it’s not top shelf right now, sure, of course.
Luke Jones 25:36
I mean, they’re, they’re not idiots, you know? I mean, even the biggest critic, they know, right? I mean, they know whether, whether it’s they don’t want, they think the money’s spending the money on long term deals is just a plain bad investment, or whether they’re cheap or or whether ownership, they’re not
Nestor Aparicio 25:52
trying to talk themselves into Kyle Gibson being better than he is. Yeah. I
Luke Jones 25:55
8mean, Kate COVID, I’m guessing if, if Grayson Rodriguez were healthy, right now, I’m guessing Kyle Gibson would still be sitting at home, right? I mean, or he’d be signing with someone else right now. So by
Nestor Aparicio 26:05
the way, there’s $5.5 million that Mr. Rubenstein has invested in your baseball experience this year there. Yeah. So, well, I started adding this up last week. You want him to spend seven or eight on Roberts? I mean, like, well, that’s up. It’s gonna start to add
Luke Jones 26:19
up. And that’s where, you know, kind of, one of the points that I would make would be, to me, I felt like the bullpen was a bigger need right now than adding another depth starter. Because, you know, I mean, right now, she might be coming
Nestor Aparicio 26:32
into the fourth inning every third day to pitch. You know, 460
8Luke Jones 26:35
pitches well. And here, here’s the thing, Kate povidge is going to be the number five starter, Kate povidge, I’m not saying he has ace upside, let’s be very clear, not saying that whatsoever, but he’s young. He had a good spring. He had a really good September. This is a guy that you know, when you kind of hear the term pitch ability, right? He doesn’t, doesn’t blow you away with a 98 mile per hour fastball, whether that gives him an edge and hopefully staying healthy compared to guys that do throw 98 who knows, right? I mean, again, maybe there’s something here the Orioles are trying to do in terms of trying to just value durability more so than upside. But you know, I think in a best case scenario, Kade povidge pitched as well enough, and there are other four guys that were projected to be in the rotation pitch well enough that Kyle Gibson’s ready by April 15. Maybe he has to slide in as the long man in the bullpen, right? I mean, maybe that’s how this plays out. Or someone else will be hurt, or someone’s getting knocked around, whatever. But to go back to what I was saying about Elias and SIG, here’s the truth. And you can even go back look at the 1996 Orioles. Go look at the issues they had pitching. You know, I mean Mike Messina and league adjusted numbers. I mean, there was a way different run scoring environment in 1996 than it is in 2050 or 2025 but the point is, their pitching staff and their rotation was not good that year, their bullpen, I mean, they had Randy Meyers at the back end, but they had some other guys kind of sliding in and out. And finally, they got to a point, you know, late in the year, when there was a little more stability, and they made their run, but they had nine guys in the lineup by come September, who had all hit 20 home runs. So my point is this pitching staff, if it can be middle of the pack, you know, somewhere in that neighborhood, we talked about this with the Ravens last fall, with their past defense. The issues that their past defense had, we said, if their past defense can shore things up enough to be middle of the pack or better, then you’ve got a Super Bowl contender on your hands. And lo and behold, they were able to do that. And okay, they lost in Buffalo. But it wasn’t because of their past defense. You know, their past defense, the last six, seven weeks of the season went from a major weakness to something that actually profiled. Is kind of a strength, even so. Point is, with the pitching, it doesn’t need to be the 1971 Orioles. They don’t need their bullpen to even necessarily be what it was in 2014 when you had Zach Britton and Andrew Miller coming over, and Darren O’Day at his best, and Brad Brock and Kevin Gosman coming out of you know, from going from the rotation into the bullpen, but rotation wise, middle of the pack, you know, maybe you could endure it being a little worse than that bullpen. That’s, you know, that’s where, again, I have a little more, at least early season concern. You know, if Batista, by May is really trending in the right direction in terms of looking like something close to what he was two years ago. And Sir Anthony Dominguez is at his best, let’s say, and canoes doing what Cano has done the last two years. And Gregory Soto, who I. I’ve said to you as a wild card, to me, if he can look kind of be what he was in Detroit a few years I mean, he’s not. It’s not like he’s 39 he’s 30 years old. And, you know, kind of go down the list. You have enough of those guys. And then Kittredge comes back in mid June, late June, something like that. Then you might feel a lot differently about the bullpen. I mean, a month ago, I like their bullpen, but there’s just been, you know, with Kittredge and Batista’s spring kind of being Rocky. It’s, you know, it’s, it’s enough to make you a little more nervous. So, you know, the path here does not need to be a number, you know, a top five starting rotation in baseball and a top three bullpen for this team to one get into October, and then two make a run. But it has to be good enough, you know, as but again, that all of that is contingent on their offense being as advertised. And you know, even with their offense struggling more so in the second half than it did in the first half. Go look at their numbers. They still finished very highly overall in 2024 it’s not like this is a bottom 10 offense, even with some of their issues in the second half of the season. So you know their their path is going to be the offense leading the way. And the question is going to be, can their rotation be functional enough, give them enough length, be competitive enough, get them to the fifth or sixth inning most nights, and then is your bullpen to be able to protect the lead. So, you know, when I say that, this isn’t me saying I think that this is going to be a 70 win team. You know, I’m still optimistic, still quite optimistic compared to most of my years covering the Orioles over the last 1516, years. But, you know, I got pitching also
Nestor Aparicio 31:44
Texas defense, right? And they played defense differently when things got chunky last year for them, you know, into June and July, like defense is going to be a big, big part of these five tool players. You know what I mean? Like Jackson holiday is supposed to be really good with the glove too, and that was part of what he’s hitting 210 but he’s going to turn double play. He’s going to do those things so they just have so much. They’ve never been more loaded with talent. I had done the senses on this week, and we were talking about Baylor, gritch, Coggins, Bumbry, you know what he came up into? And he was a very good major league baseball player, played 15 years, made a lot of money, but he was not Brooks Robinson. But, you know, I mean, I think about that era, in this era, how stacked they are, and honestly, I’ll say this out loud to beat him up. This will cost me my press pass. It’s kind of a shame that they don’t have better pitching. You know what? I mean? Like, I agree. It’s a shame. It’s a shame. And I think that’s how I feel, and you feel and and Dave shining felt on Friday sort of like you could have done more with the pitching, especially if you’re going to spend, what you’re going to spend and where you are, because, like, it’s not good enough. They’re not going to win a World Series with this. I mean, they’re not. They’re going to have to do more. Can they do more? Yes. Do they have the talent at the minor league level to make deals? Yes. Do they have the money? Appears to be so, so far so good, sure. And
Luke Jones 33:15
and that’s not to say you aren’t going to have a couple surprises along the way. Look at three years or two years ago. At this time, no one was thinking Kyle Bradish was going to finish. What did he finish? Fourth in Cy Young voting in 2023 no one thought that at that point in time, Kyle Bradish was maybe, you know, and he had had a good, good second half, you know, good finish to 2022 with the Orioles. So he was more highly regarded than Cade povidge At this point in time. But my point is, he was much more considered a number three, four or five two years ago, and then we saw what he became over the course of 2024 so using that same exact, you know, application, can Kate povidge Take the kind of step and maybe by July or August, you view him as maybe not, you know, not an ace, not a number two, but maybe he looks like a really legit number three, right? I mean, I’m, it’s not impossible. I’m not, I’m not betting on it necessarily, but that’s why I do. I like at least having him in the rotation to kind of see what that looks like, right? I mean, these, these older back end starters, you know what you’re going to get, at least at best, right? I mean, I don’t think Charlie Morton’s going to suddenly look like he did with the Astros in 2017 I’d be great if he did, but I’m not expecting that. You know, Kyle Gibson is Kyle Gibson at this point? Sagano, there’s some intrigue there, right? Effin, my goodness, you pray stays healthy. I mean, you know, keep in mind he was on the shelf for a couple weeks, even for the Orioles last summer. I mean, briefly, but. But you know, I think when you talk about a Cade Povich, when you talk about, you know, certainly Felix Bautista coming back, you know, not, not, not talking about him pitching back to back days or multiple innings, but you know, starting to look like himself again by May. And you trend, get that trending. And I think if he does, guess what? Everyone else in the bullpen can then kind of settle into what would be their most appropriate role. And you’re not feeling like, Oh my gosh. Do we have to put Dominguez out there for the ninth inning or Cano out there for the ninth inning? No, you can put them in the seventh or eighth inning, where they’re better equipped to be there. So, you know, there’s, it’s not as though there’s a there isn’t a path for this to all be good enough on the pitching side. It’s just it feels like they’re unnecessarily operating from a smaller margin of error, and in turn, that’s putting a lot on your young position talent. But hey, the whole plan, you know, when Mike Elias arrived, from the moment, he took Adley rutschman with one one in 2019 in that draft going on. You know, almost six years ago, at this point in time, they’ve signaled that they were going to be a team that prioritized development of hitters, and for the most part, Jackson holiday aside college hitters. So they should be counting on that. That should be their biggest strength. So it really comes down to, are they going to do it? Do I wish they had a little more backup in terms of, you know, pitching, and a little more of a safety net in that regard? Yeah, sure. They had that last year with Corbin burns and, yeah, they came up short. So, you know, I mean, it’s, I don’t say this to think, to say that I think they’re doomed, far from it. But at the same time, it’s like you just said, you see this potential juggernaut when you look at just the position now, if you just covered up the pitching with a piece of paper, and you just looked at the position player talent, and you’d say, All right, it’s young. But my gosh, you’ve got Rookie of the years. You’ve got all young, all stars. You’ve got an MVP candidate and gunner Henderson, Ali rutman has been a fringe at MVP candidate at his best Jackson holiday, the best prospect in baseball, you know, less than a year removed from that. I mean, man, that sign me up for that. That’s where you look at the pitching and say, really, that’s That’s all you’ve got on the pitching side. And that’s where the disappointment comes from, right? I mean, I think it’s important to separate the underwhelming nature of the off season as it pertained to the pitching for me, but also still having excitement and optimism about this, this young group of position talent now. They need Tyler O’Neill to stay healthy, right? They need guys to be themselves in terms of what we saw last year and in Jackson holidays case, take the next step, which you know I was, I was actually watching Orioles Braves on Sunday. It was on MLB Network. It was the Braves broadcast, and all they were doing was talking about, man, that Jackson holiday kid. We talked to people all around baseball. They’re all convinced he’s going to be really, really good. You know, whether that’s an all star this year or at some point in the near future, that’s what they still think about this kid. Well, it’s got to go do it right in the same way that Adley did in the same way that gunner Henderson did in West Berg and cows are last year. So, you know, it’s you asked me right now, like my prediction on the Orioles, like, you know, win loss, you know, to go on the record. You know, I still think, even with some of the questions with the pitching, I still think it’s a team that, you know, to me, looks like a team that can win 90 games. And, you know, I think the Yankees are very similar. You know, I’ll give the Yankees. I the nod because one, they’re the defending al champs, and I they certainly have more five financial wherewithal to go out and make a big move. Potentials are
Nestor Aparicio 38:58
887 and a half or 88 in most cases we sit here.
Speaker 1 39:02
I think I’d take a slight over on that still. And that’s, believe me, you’ve heard how critical I am about their pitching, so that tells you how much I think about their offense right now. But you know, I think the Yankees are right there, Toronto. Yankees, by
Nestor Aparicio 39:18
the way, are 88 to 89 and a half, depending on, you know where you’re betting,
Luke Jones 39:23
depend and depending on your projection system. Some like the Yankees, more and some, even with everything that’s happened to this point, some still, like the Orioles over
8Nestor Aparicio 39:31
the way, only five better choices in all of baseball, right? Dodgers, Braves, Phillies at 90 and a half, pretty consistently. Braves at 93 Dodgers at 103
Luke Jones 39:42
right? That’s the most insane juggernaut on paper that baseball’s probably ever seen. You know, go assuming there’s
Nestor Aparicio 39:50
a 10 game difference in the over on three for the Braves and 103 for the Dodger. Yeah.
Luke Jones 39:54
8So, so, you know, put the Dodgers aside from everyone at the moment. Minute, and their payroll and everything you know, defending champions,
Nestor Aparicio 40:02
the Red Sox, 86 and a half. I mean, people that bullish on the Red Sox, by the way, I want to
Luke Jones 40:08
make this clear everything we’re talking about, because we’re, we’re obviously hyper focused on the Orioles, because they’re Baltimore’s team, and that’s what we talk about, and that’s what we cover here. But they’re having the same conversations in every other city in the American League right now. I mean, they are the Yankees, my goodness, Garrett Cole and heels out, and we’re guardians. At 81 and a half. You know the guard, the Guardians, have had some attrition. I mean, you know that the twins? I mean, look at what happened to them last, last September.
Nestor Aparicio 40:36
I want the tigers to fall apart. Deal for school. That’s what I want. Hey, that’d be great. That’d be great. I mean, screwball is looking at all incredible, but Padres can have a little sell off too, because, you know, you know, they begin the year 19 games behind the Dodgers. As far as Vegas is concerned. That’s crazy, crazy, crazy, but, but,
8Luke Jones 40:56
you know, go to everyone in the American League, and specifically everyone in the American League East, is they’re having these issues. Hey, I mentioned to you late last week, don’t, don’t sneak don’t sleep on the rays. Shane McClanahan is coming back. Well, he just left with an injury over the weekend. Now the early indications are that it sounds like it’s not another like that. His elbow broke again. But this is just, this is it, and this is why I said maybe the Orioles are, maybe there’s something to this idea of trying to build a rotation that survives right, trying to survive attrition, I don’t know. But at the same time, even acknowledging, acknowledging that you still need to have enough ability to be able to thrive and win enough games and navigate the season and not be you don’t want to be in a position where you’re eight games out and, you know, you’re really climbing uphill. So you know, they’ve got a hit. That’s the obvious. And the guys that are healthy and guys that are mainstays in their bullpen and in the rotation, known commodities. I mean, Dean Kramer is a great example of someone they need to be a little steadier than he’s been in the past, which, you know, at his best, he’s been, you know, a three slash four. We always said his name and we haven’t. And I saw, I saw him, you know, he pitched a bit against Atlanta on Sunday, and he actually, he ran into a little bit of trouble in the fifth inning, but he struck out 10 guys in five and a third innings. So, you know, he had a really nice outing after a not so great spring for him. Statistically, again, who knows? I mean spring training stats, but it’s guys like him, guys like yen your canoe and the bullpen and CNL Perez, guys who’ve been around, guys that you they’re known commodities. They’ve got to do what they can do. They at least be the best version of themselves. And then, you know, like I said, they got to hit the ball. They do that. They’ll win a lot of games. They’ll be right there in contention for the division and and then it gets back to what you mentioned several minutes ago. Then, yeah, we get to June, we get to July and then the arms race, right? Who gets the ace? Who gets, if it’s not an ace, who gets the number two starter, or even a number three starter, you know, where’s Grayson Rodriguez at that point in time? You know, Where’s where’s Batista, physically and performance wise, at that point in time, I
Nestor Aparicio 43:16
remember back at Memorial Stadium, they go to the bullpen, and they would cue the Beatles song, help. I need somebody help, you know. So you know, not just anybody you know, they they’re gonna need help. They are, yeah, yeah,
Luke Jones 43:31
that’s fair. But you know what? I’d say that about just about any team in the American League right now. So all right, Bucha, passport out. You’re not gonna get me thrown out of Canada. Are you? I was going to ask you the same thing, please. Don’t, you know, keep in mind, I’m a deacon, so, you know, I can’t. Keep in mind, you want to be seen with me at
Nestor Aparicio 43:47
the border. You know, I don’t know. Luke Jones can be found at Baltimore, Luke, I’m actually American, but I feel my Venezuelan more and more as baseball season begins here, by the way, Luis Aparicio the the oldest living Hall of Famer as we begin, and he will turn 91 in May. So I’m into it. I just, I just found a really cool old Aparicio card. I’m ready for baseball season. I got major compliments on my Tony Gwynn gear at Pizza John’s on Friday. Dave shining. Stopped by lovely visit from Kelly. True acts from GBMC, talking about some very, very important issues with young children and sextortion and online nonsense going on in chat rooms. Make sure you’re checking that out. Support them also. Todd Schuler, as well as former Attorney General the state of Maryland, Brian frosh, two of my favorite people, two attorneys to come on to talk about checks and balances in the United States of America. And they both said that they would come to the Peace Bridge in Buffalo or Niagara Falls and get me into the country. They would drag me across the water, if that’s what it takes to get me back into New York. I’ve never wanted to get to New York so badly. Luke and I are headed into what Toronto. On Wednesday. Will be there. Thursday, we there. Friday, coming back. Friday, Saturday. A get ready for Monday. March Madness is going on. If the Ravens do anything, we’ll be the first to tell you out on the W n s t, Baltimore, positive tech service brought to you by our friends at cole roofing. I am Nestor happy opening day. It is baseball season here. Pray for the pitching and wait for that home run riches thing to happen. We are W, N, S, D, AM, 1570 Towson, Baltimore, we never stop talking democracy and Baltimore positive. You.
