Fifty-four weeks ago, you could argue that the Ravens set in motion the end of a dynasty.
New England was 8-0 and still atop the football world before Baltimore’s convincing 37-20 victory in eventual league MVP Lamar Jackson’s Sunday Night Football debut. As the Ravens went on to a franchise-best 14-2 record and remain a top-shelf contender with a 6-2 start this season, the Patriots have gone a combined 7-10 over the last calendar year, which includes their first-round playoff loss in what was Tom Brady’s final game with New England.
Suffice to say, this prime-time meeting is lacking the same buzz with two teams going in opposite directions. The Patriots’ 3-5 start is their worst record through the first half of a season since 2000, Bill Belichick’s first season as their head coach.
It’s time to go on the record as these teams meet for the second straight year and the 11th time overall in the regular season with the Patriots enjoying an 8-2 mark. The Ravens are 0-5 at New England in the regular season, but they own a respectable 2-2 postseason mark in Foxborough. Counting the playoffs, Baltimore is 4-6 against the Patriots in the John Harbaugh era.
Below are five predictions for Sunday night:
1. The Ravens will crack 200 rushing yards for the third time this season. After another flop last week, I’m out of the business of trying to predict the carry distribution, but a rainy, windy forecast and New England’s 25th-ranked run defense should make the game plan pretty clear. The Ravens exposed the Patriots’ vulnerability against the run in last year’s meeting, and their defense is a far cry from what it was in 2019. Regardless of Mark Ingram’s questionable status for Sunday night, Baltimore should be able to move the ball on the ground consistently.
2. Jakobi Meyers will catch a touchdown as a bright spot for an otherwise toothless New England passing game. Cam Newton doesn’t have a touchdown pass in the last four games, but he’s thrown the ball better the last two weeks with Meyers being a big reason why. The second-year slot receiver went from being a healthy scratch in October to registering 22 catches for 287 yards over the last three games. With Jimmy Smith doubtful, does Wink Martindale keep Marlon Humphrey inside to cover Meyers or does he trust Terrell Bonds or the just-signed Tramon Williams to play inside at the nickel? Outside cornerback options are sparse right now.
8
3. Yannick Ngakoue will register a strip-sack for his first splash play as a Raven. Last week was a good example why you don’t evaluate strictly by conventional stats as Ngakoue disrupted Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers on multiple occasions despite not registering as much as a tackle in the box score. Strong coverage on the back end should give Ngakoue a better chance to get home for a big play since Newton doesn’t get the ball out nearly as quickly as Rivers or Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger.
4. J.K. Dobbins will become the first Baltimore tailback to catch a touchdown pass this season. The Patriots are giving up an NFL-worst 8.8 yards per pass attempt, but their struggles have been more on the outside and opposing tight ends haven’t put up big numbers against them to this point. With All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore possibly returning for New England and the weather also being a factor, Greg Roman getting the running backs more involved would seem to be a good change of pace for the passing game. Dobbins shows too much potential to not become more of a factor as a receiver out of the backfield at some point.
5. The Ravens will remain in control and limit mistakes for a 26-13 win. Aside from turnovers and penalties that have been a problem in recent weeks, the potential pitfall for Baltimore is the absence of five-time Pro Bowl defensive end Calais Campbell against the league’s fourth-ranked rushing attack. That’s not to suggest the Patriots will run all over the Ravens, but their formula for an upset is doing enough on the ground to control the clock and hoping Baltimore makes a couple critical mistakes in wet conditions. That said, Jackson is just too much of a nightmare for an underwhelming front seven to be able to contain for 60 minutes. For the second straight year, Belichick won’t have any magic to stop the 23-year-old quarterback. With important games coming up against Tennessee and Pittsburgh, the Ravens will use a no-nonsense effort for a victory in what will be a strange prime-time environment in an empty Gillette Stadium.
