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Saying “so long” to Santander as Tony Taters takes Toronto dough

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He hit a lot of home runs, was a great clubhouse presence and came through the hard times as a Baltimore Orioles rising star and now he’ll be looking to beat them with the Toronto Blue Jays. Luke Jones tells Nestor this five-year deal isn’t a shock but replacing the productivity of Anthony Santander might prove to be harder than just signing Tyler O’Neill.

Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ offseason, focusing on the departure of Anthony Santander to the Blue Jays. Jones highlighted Santander’s career high of 44 home runs but noted his declining walk rates and defensive concerns. They debated the Orioles’ pitching strategy, emphasizing the need for a top-tier starter like Corbin Burnes. Jones argued that the Orioles’ young position players, including Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, offer significant upside. They also discussed the team’s payroll strategy, noting the Orioles’ $155.8 million commitment, and the importance of winning in October to boost fan engagement and ticket sales.

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

Orioles offseason, Santander departure, Blue Jays signing, pitching concerns, young talent, Adley Rutschman, Felix Batista, bullpen depth, Corbin Burns, payroll strategy, ticket sales, playoff expectations, expanded playoffs, fan engagement, baseball season

SPEAKERS

Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones

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Nestor Aparicio  00:02

Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T, AM, 1570, tasks of Baltimore. We are Baltimore positive and for a brief moment, probably not a moment, probably for like, the next eight or nine months, uh, exhaling, all things ravens, inhaling all things Sarasota and Orioles. Luke Jones joins us now. We are going to be doing a cup of Super Bowl two weeks from now. We have been cleaning out ravens lockers and talking about Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson and Eric de Costa and draft picks and certainly Patrick mahomes and Josh Allen, but we got baseball season here, Luke, first off, I mean, I know you’ve been in the purple bat cave here through the weekend and the ice and snow, and it’s been chilly this week, and like all of that, I do think it’s a little bit of a come up for air time. I a lot of our kindred spirits who have remained Orioles and and ravens and before that, colts fans for all of these years, the minute that the seasons over, all the mark, Andrews, Lamar, buffalo, all that, it’s well, how many days the pitchers and catchers report? When’s opening day? All of that, you are certainly one of those people. So I will open the door to say, let’s not talk anymore about the football game last week. Can we do that for a couple minutes? Can we just, like, pretend it didn’t happen? Yeah, let’s

Luke Jones  01:25

just go from the team that that can’t get the job done in January to the team that can’t get the job done in October, right? I thought

Nestor Aparicio  01:33

you were the nice guy of the two of us. Why do I if we’re gonna

Luke Jones  01:37

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transition from ravens the Orioles? I mean that that’s kind of a, you know, that’s a hanging curve ball bill and about

Nestor Aparicio  01:42

my press pass while we’re on. But anyway, so nonetheless, it is baseball season, and we have plenty time for football, but this is a time where you and I’ve been assessing football and saying, all right, what are you gonna do about the guards? What are they gonna do about this? What are gonna do about that? Like we’re on to that already, and we’re gonna have eight months of, you know, whether Kyle van Noy is coming back. Meanwhile, the baseball thing, you know, we’re in the 11th hour of getting ready for spring training, and Corbin Burns is gone. And I guess this is the entree John Martin from the lottery always likes my segues. This is the segue to saying, Hmm, that Santander guy. Is he doing in Toronto,

Luke Jones  02:21

yeah. I mean, full disclosure, you did not receive the wnst Baltimore positive text on the text alert because I was in the midst of locker clean out. I actually didn’t see the Santander news till probably 20 minutes after it came out. But at the same time, we knew he wasn’t coming back. I mean, the moment they signed Tyler O’Neill, they told you where they were with Santander, and you know, we’re going to see how this plays out. I I said all along, I wasn’t opposed to bringing back Santander, but I also said I was not hot and bothered about a five year commitment to do it. You’re talking about a 30 year old coming off of a career high in home runs. He had 44 home runs his previous career high before that was 33 but he’s been a guy who’s 28 home runs two years ago. You know, the walk, the walk numbers have gotten better over the last couple years, but we’re still only talking about someone with a career three, oh, at seven on base percentage. You know, I think his defense in right field. There’s a discussion there how much longer he’s really going to be, you know, an outfielder, you know, corner outfielder, rather than a DH or a first baseman. You know, I still think that’s probably his long term position. So they’ll miss him, from a standpoint of, he was a good soldier. He’s one of their core players that helped anchor the turnaround he’s been. He’s made himself into a heck of a player when you consider where he was. I mean, this was a Rule five pick back in 2017 and got better and went through a lot health wise. You know, he’s stayed relatively healthy, although he was pretty banged up over the course of last season. So I don’t want to belittle the player. I mean, Santander. He’s been a, you know, a guy that’s been worth two or three wins above replacement the last few years. You know, he’s been a good core player for this team. But I don’t think anyone ever looked at him over the last couple years and thought, Wow, that’s a guy that you’re going to build around long term. So, you know, I think if put it this way, if Anthony Santander had been, you know, more, in the neighborhood of what they gave Tyler O’Neal, then okay, but I don’t think Mike Elias and the Orioles front office view that as being the best long term commitment you can make. So look, it’s not my money at the end of the day. So I’m not going to sit here and and pat them on the back over that. But if I’m trying to be in the mold of in the mode of thinking as them, then I can understand not wanting to go five years with someone who’s 30 and, you know, kind of has a skill set that doesn’t necessarily age all that well. I think I. He’s got two good years in him, and then we’re going to see after that, you know? I But if you’re Toronto, I mean, we talked about the Orioles and how the Orioles have been quote in on these guys, right? That’s been Toronto’s whole story the last couple years, going back to Otani last off season. So, dude, I was in

Nestor Aparicio  05:16

Toronto the night that they reported that Otani was on the plane coming to Toronto, right? I literally was there that night. Man, yeah.

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Luke Jones  05:24

So, I mean, and look the Blue Jays. And we’ve used the Blue Jays, we’ve held them up as a cautionary tale for the Orioles. I mean, the the Blue Jays about two years, two and a half years before the Orioles really started to turn the corner, you know, they were, they were perceived in a similar light, you know, with Vlad and Bucha and all these young players. And, you know, they’ve had some success, but nothing in October, right? Nothing to write about in terms of postseason or anything like that. It’s been abrupt for what for them when they’ve made it so, you know, they wanted to do something clearly, you know, they were another one of those teams that tried, I to get one Soto. But, you know, we’ve talked about this, you know, what does it mean to try? What does it mean to finish second or third for every free agent, right? I mean, doesn’t mean I’m I’m questioning your effort. But if you don’t land those guys, what does it really do for you? So they land Santander. He stays in the Al east. Certainly the Orioles need to be aware of that. I, you know, again, if it were a three year deal on those terms, I’d say, Man, I really would have liked the Orioles to have been in on that. But, you know, for a five year deal, and I think what there’s even, think there’s a vesting option that in there too. I didn’t get a chance to read all the, yeah, I just, I’m wondering what the productivity

Nestor Aparicio  06:45

level is, and that, um, in the baseball industry, we go back to Pat Gillick even saying to me, 28 years ago, you don’t want to be the person spending the most in the room, on the least. You know what I mean, like, in a general sense, it’s not, even if you have money to burn, it’s not really money to burn. Um, and they burn through some money on pitching like I’m not if I’m writing the, I don’t know, not half written book of their off season. But I’d say they’re at 75% of whatever they’re going to do at this point in their off season, to be evaluated, and it’s never the real evaluation comes the day after the season ends, right? I mean, ask Eric the cost to ask us we’ve been evaluating the Raven season. In totality, it’s always a going thing for me, even with pitching in money and young players, and let’s say rushman gets fixed this year, and beside becomes the number one prospect in the sport somehow, and that gets you Dylan cease on july 27 I don’t know. You know, that’s the way baseball plays out. So there’s nothing absolute. The world keeps spinning in baseball. So I can’t evaluate it and say, How’s the off season? I can only say, How’s the off season right now, because Corbin burns came along right about now last year, and so did arm troubles for Bradish and everything else that we were talking about. Tyler wells this time last year, right we’re talking about John means this time last year. So the things that were last year aren’t this year, and where are you on all of it? Because we have a talk. We’ve been so Baseball, baseball, baseball, bring me in on your evaluative process on it. Still need another starter, because they don’t have a one. At least they maybe they think they do with Rodriguez and Ethel and right bullpen, they’ll never have enough of that. I don’t think you’ll ever take the foot off of that. And I’ll never take the foot off of I’ll believe Batiste is a closer again, when I see him be a closer, not the one guy from two years ago, just being a guy that like, 30 saves into this and five blown saves, and they’re 64 and 41 or whatever. You know wherever they’re going to be. Believing that at the All Star break, you have a guy, a dude, you know that the dude in that spot, I don’t know. And then the Santander thing, I honestly haven’t thought much about their lineup, because all I’ve been thinking about their pitching, you know, I thought, well, you know, if Richmond stinks and if Westbrook gets hurt again, and a nine Anderson, the only guy that hits Santander couldn’t save them last year, but they’re gonna miss that bad when I saw him with a little blue jay logo, I’m like, I don’t know if I like this.

Luke Jones  09:27

Yeah, I mean, but at the same time all I heard people complain about the last couple years, if the the Orioles rely on the home run, well, go look at Anthony Santander split so, I mean, he was a 200 hitter through the first two months of the season, and over the last two months of the season, he hit 13 home runs, but he batted 209, right? So I hear everything you’re saying, but I

Nestor Aparicio  09:50

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don’t live with him departing. I just don’t think they’ve replaced the offense or the pitching in my in my mind they’re a little bit of a diminished team from where we left them when Corbin Burns was coming. And out everything. You know what I mean, like, I don’t think they’re a better team this week, late January. You have not if you’re sending me Birdland memberships and you’re killing eggs, you’re done. If you’re selling me on the off season, not just the buying tickets and David Rubenstein being a great guy. And you and I using the money that I’m going to cancel today, I still haven’t canceled my New Orleans trip to turn that into you and I going down to Sarasota for four or five days and running around and having a good time with baseball and doing our jobs professionally, and maybe hanging out in a coffee shop and talking about baseball in Sarasota. Um, like, I don’t have any of that as a host of as nasty Nestor or Baltimore positive or the guy on the internet to say things have changed, and it’s baseball season and new sheriffs in town, and look at the players that they’ve sat in the commitment that they’ve had, and look at Cal Ripken on the commercials. And I don’t, I don’t know, but it’s their time now, and I beat the hell out of them at Christmas time because they weren’t taking advantage of the Raven success. You know what I mean? Like, I beat them up saying, You need to be in front of people now they’re having some caravan. The caravan so great that they’re not even gonna tell you who’s coming. Like, what? Come on, man. Come on, man. It’s baseball season now. Then my bar raises for them, and I become a brick on the radio again, because I just don’t there’s no way to portray this as an improved team in the off season. I don’t, I can’t do that. I don’t think you can.

Luke Jones  11:25

Oh, see, I’ll disagree a little bit from the standpoint of, if you look at their internal talent that they have, and expecting improvements from young guys, as opposed to when you have players like Anthony Santander, who’s 30 years old, where that trajectory is not very unlikely to continue going up. Right at best, he’s going to be the same player that he’s been. I’m also finding the next version of that. So, so that. So that would be my argument to what you just said. Do I believe that wholeheartedly? No. I mean, I’d like to see them have more from us upside from their starting pitching standpoint. You know, we’ve talked about it a lot in terms of what they did with Charlie Morton, in terms of what they’ve done with tamayuki Sagano, and whatever he’s going to be, but clearly they think he’s going to be something or you don’t give him, even on a one year deal, you don’t give him the amount of money that they gave him. So, you know, the back half of the rotation has more depth than it did a few months ago. But when you’re missing Corbin burns, that’s a pretty Corbin burn sized hole at the top of your rotation is a lot to overcome, however, and this is where I’ll stick up for them a little bit while. I think all of the concerns about where they are starting pitching wise, are fair on the flip side, I do think a lot of people are vastly underrating the group of position talent that they have at this point in time, even with Anthony Santander going out the door because gunner Henderson. Does he have another level he might? I’m not saying you expect that, but what he was last year was a top four or five player in the American League, if not all of baseball, right? I mean, that’s what you have there. The Adley rutschman thing is pivotal, right? I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt that we what the player that we saw over the first two years of his career is much more the player that he is, rather than the guy that we saw struggle over the final three months of the season. I still am not convinced that he wasn’t dealing with some kind of at least nagging injury, even if they don’t want to come out and say it, for whatever reason. I think you know what you mentioned about Jordan westburg. I mean, yeah, if he gets hurt, you can say that about anyone. If Juan Soto breaks his ankle on the on opening day. Then, yeah, the Mets are going to be really they’re going to be sunk, right? I mean, they’re going to be in trouble. So you can say that about anyone. But you know, Jordan Westberg hitting another level. You know, Jackson holiday, I absolutely expect to be better in his age 21 season than he was in his age 20 season. So, you know, you go down the list of the players that they have, I think a lot of people because of the frustration on the pitching side and just the nature of this off season feeling, man, even though, as I’ve said to you, and we’ve talked about in isolation, every move they’ve made, I can understand the rationale, you know, even if it’s not necessarily the direction I would have gone in, but I think on the flip side of that, it’s led to a lot of people selling short what they have the Orioles for what it’s worth. And I just looked at four different sports books. If you look at the Orioles in terms of win, you know, win, loss total, and World Series odds, let me

Nestor Aparicio  14:37

guess, because I’m not a gambler. Hold on. Let me guess. I think the over under on them is 8889

Luke Jones  14:47

and a half. All right, all right. You know what? That’s second best in the American League. Thank you. 89

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Nestor Aparicio  14:51

and a half. Would I bet the over or the under on them right this minute? Um. I think I would bet the over. Can I make a happy case for the Orioles? Then you send this to Katie? Send this because I’m about to make a happy case for them. All right. I’m about to make the option for sure case for them. All right, a they have ascending players, and whether you think rutschman, whatever that was last year, he’s a one, one overall. I don’t know. God forbid there’s something you know, some issue I don’t know about, or we don’t know about the you know that anything is possible, right? Um, but I, but I would say pitching wise. I think they’ve gotten enough arms now to have enough number three pitchers and number four pitchers. And if you mix Dean Kramer in and say he’ll be a little better, Rodriguez will be, will take the next step, which, that’s

Luke Jones  15:47

the big one for the rotation has to happen all the way through, sure. Okay, they have to

Nestor Aparicio  15:52

get Corbin burns production out of a guy they’re not paying to be Corbin burns, because they’re paying all these other guys half of Corbin burns, or a third of Corbin burns to be a third of Corbin burns. I know what you’re getting with 41 year pitchers, Japanese kid. He’s not a kid a lot of money. Um, who knows? I mean, who knows those things are hell in a bottle, because it could, you know, I’ve seen her a decade arabo, and I’ve also seen like, guys that that are Tanaka, you know, guys that are like, you don’t know enough about Hilo younger, but guys you don’t know enough about but I would think this isn’t Sid Thrift, although I had a great Sid thrift conversation last week with Mike Balani from Buffalo. Sid thrift was the GM of the pirates when Balani was running the bisons in the 80s. So he spent a lot of time with Sid. So when I channeled my Sid, I, you know, I got some great I got cheers from Balani because it was pretty good Sid. But I’m thinking like they’ve done a lot of math, you know, on the Japanese guy, they’ve, there’s a lot of, there’s 25 years of studies on what the level of their play is, and the level of this play. And these guys think they’re geniuses, right? So they can look at tape, they can look at this, they can they can bring them over, and they can say, arm angle, speed, velocity. They poke them around. They’ve done the we do know they’ve given him a physical, pending physical. We do know that that’s a real thing in the modern era. As I see you chuckle, but my optimism for them is that West Berg’s going to become the next thing. And I, I’m trying to compare him to somebody, but I don’t know Scott Roland, you know, I don’t Okay. I’ll just throw a name out, right, Hall of Famer, you know, just a guy that is going to be a really solid, rock solid guy that you want to have on your team, and a build around guy. Maybe he build around guy in the end, because gunner may be thinking, I’m going to be a Dodger. I’m going to be wherever, wherever the wind blows me the most money. That’s where I’m going to be. And if that’s the case, you can’t marry that. You can’t, you can’t. You know, you know, I dated a Greek girl back when I was single. She was not allowed to marry me like, literally, her family would not allow it. So therefore, if your thought is your agent is going to direct you to the most money, maybe the oils get there in the end, but they can’t get there now, and we’ve seen this. So I think of that money and that, but I do think gunner Henderson. If he’s going to be that guy to get Juan Soto money, he’s gonna play like Juan Soto, and that’s gonna help you win a freaking lot of games, more than 89 and a half games, right? If you have any kind of pitching at all. And I think these guys, for as much as our guy at the fan, likes to blow hot wind on the internet about how stupid a lot, I don’t think these guys are stupid. I think they’ve worked in one organization that was really thrifty, and they came here working with these maniacs that owned the team before. The new guy might be a different kind of maniac. I don’t know. There’s no saying what they’re doing, but he’s given them money to sign these pictures, one at a time, which I can’t argue with any of them. And I can’t argue that if I’m SIG my Dell, and I worked in casinos, that I wouldn’t look at it and say, Give me $10 on black, $10 on black, $10 on black, you know, like and instead of 50 on red, let’s just play. Charlie Morton, still, you’re going to be a good leader. Going to be that Kyle Gibson kind of guy, but give you some energy, a guy you want around. Let’s give him some money, and let’s work it out, because we couldn’t figure out burns, and we can’t figure out cease, and we’re not getting scuba so let’s figure this out this way. And you know, I’m sorry I’m lingering, but I’m trying to be optimistic about it, because if you gave me $1 I guess I take the over 90 based on the last two years, just based on the fact that they’re going to figure this out, and they have an owner at least has money, and they have a minor league system that can figure out a big blockbuster deal if they need to in July. So that’s where I. You know what? I mean, yeah.

20:02

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And look, I I don’t think you’re too far off there in how they’re thinking about this. And look, when I bring up the win over, under for wins, my point with that is, Vegas still thinks this is going to be a good team, right? I mean,

Nestor Aparicio  20:16

this isn’t, yeah, yeah, exactly. It’s just something, a barometer, why to buy tickets, because they’re going to be a good baseball team. Now. Team.

Luke Jones  20:22

Now, now I will say this, and I won’t back down from this. And you know not that it played out because Corbin Burns did exactly what you thought he would, and you didn’t play deep enough into the postseason, and really even gage it. But I do think as they’re presently constructed, they are much more constructed to be successful in the regular season, but in October, I’m kind of shrugging my shoulders right now. Now the bullpen, I think, is deeper than it was at this time a year ago, and that’s fully acknowledging what you said about Felix Batista, but I think in terms of just what you have, because you brought back Sir Anthony Dominguez, closed games, did a good job for them for the most part, over the final two months of the season, you still have yen your canoe. I think Gregory Soto is such a wild card for their bullpen in terms of he was not good in August when they got him. He wasn’t good in Philly. That’s why the Phillies traded him at the trade deadline. But was better in September. He’s not, you know, he’s, I think he’ll be, I believe, 30 years old by opening day. So he’s not so old to think that his skills are diminished. If he can be the guy that was, you know, an all star caliber kind of reliever a few years ago with Detroit, then I think you have the makings of a pretty nice core of high leverage guys there. And, you know, that’s not even talking about Andrew Kittredge, who, obviously they added and and even talking about like, Where does Albert Suarez fit in? Is he going to be your fourth or fifth starter? Or is he a guy that transitions to, you know, maybe a bridge guy that pitches the sixth or seventh inning for you a lot of nights. So, so the point is, I think their bullpen, I feel better about their bullpen now than I did a year ago at this time. And that’s fully acknowledging that, yes, there could, you know, Felix Batista might not be Felix Batista, at least early on in the season, but you know, there’s also, to me, there’s also no reason to think that he can’t be effective for them, even if it’s even if that means he’s not an all star reliever, he should still be effective, right? I, you know, there’s been a long enough period of time. This isn’t a rushed Tommy John rehab for him. So, you know, I’m cautiously optimistic about Batista, so I like to bullpen more up, you know, top half of the rotation. We’ve talked about that. We’ll continue to talk about that. I still think what you just mentioned is very much in play in terms of, let it play out. See where you are in June, and see where Dylan ceases at that point, or see where any number of other number one, number two starter types, you know, another Zach Eflin type at the deadline, right? I mean, that worked out well for the Orioles last year. You know, Zach Eflin pitched at a very high level for them, you know, for all their other trade deadline deals that you kind of looked at and said, Oh, that wasn’t so good. Eflin and Sir Anthony Dominguez, you give thumbs up to in terms of what worked so, you know. So I think all of that being said, acknowledging that the pitching is not perfect, and there’s upside concern with the rotation, the bullpen, you know, but a lot of that’s hinging on what Batista looks like. But again, I think it’s deeper. I do like the bullpen more than I did a year ago at this time. But on the flip side, I do think people sell short the upside that’s there with their young core of position talent. So now that does not mean that Heston kersta is going to become an all star outfielder this year. That doesn’t mean Jackson holiday is going to be an all star at second base, you know, overnight, one of these guys may not pan out in the way that you know a few years ago, even though he was never the highly touted top 25 kind of prospect in baseball. But, you know, Kyle Stowers didn’t work out, right? I mean, you know, he and even in Miami, that’s kind of proven out, he’s probably more of a quad a player, you know. And I love Kyle Stowers, great kid, but not all of them are going to play it pan out, but you have enough of those guys, and enough of them have already become all star talents, you know, let’s make the assumption that Adley rutschman The three months was just, he was hurt, slumping, just weird, and he goes back to being Adley rutschman of 22 and 23 and the first half, you know, not even the first half of 24 because that was even a weird kind of season for him, just in its totality, if he goes back to being that the Orioles have two top 10 MVP caliber players in the American League, right off the bat there, and that’s before you get to westburg. That’s before you get to Colton cows, or that’s before you get to Heston, kerstad, and whatever he might be in an increased role. That’s, you know, Tyler. Feel better

Nestor Aparicio  24:57

about it if they had signed burns for two. 100 million dollars, of course, right? I mean, you know what? I mean, it would look a lot more like what the Yankees would do, or what the Red Sox used to do, or what the Dodgers currently do. No doubt, which, you know. Or if you want to go play with 35 year old guys from Japan who’ve never pitched it, never thrown a pitch, and a 41 year old pitcher who’s thrown too many pitches, and, you know, just down the line, it feels rag muffin to some degree, but it’s not complete. And if whomever this year’s Dylan Ceaser scuba is, whoever that guy is that’s on a contract or about to expire or would like to have Peston cursed at, and three other bags of BIS and whatever else you’re going to do to bring in that kind of picture. I mean, what if the Tigers go in the tank this year? And scuba is good, I don’t I’m making things up, right, right? But something’s going to happen. Arms are going to fall off. Guys are going to get hurt. Corbin burns might have, you know, you take a liner off the knee second week. Who knows, right? But for them, they’re in a position financially and depth in the organization, that if you already think, well, with Charlie Morton, we could be a 90 win team. We’ll worry about it when the season gets going. Let’s let some young guy, let’s let let the cake bake. You know, let Russ bank, let, let’s just let the season happen. We have a good manager. We have a good system. We have these veteran pitchers we brought in who have some semblance of a track record. We have this kid that might be Jim Palmer, like we’re thinking of, you know, think about him in those terms. We don’t have five of them, but we have five guys that might be, yeah, rich dower and Doug the senses and you know, better than Rick Dempsey, you know what I mean, you might have a you might have three Eddie Murray’s on this team by the time holiday gets here. Like, you know what I mean, like westburg, ruchman Henderson, holiday cows are, I’ll throw him in for now, because he can still be pretty good. I don’t know he’s going Hall of Fame based on what’s valuable when

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Luke Jones  27:03

you when, but when you account for his defense on top of what you know, inconsistent offensive profile acknowledged, he’s a pretty valuable player.

Nestor Aparicio  27:11

There’s five guys right there that’s all are going to get 100 million plus dollar contracts when their time comes, no matter what they hit. Because in the bottom end, West birds going to hit 258 and hit 21 home run and be just okay. On the best side, you might hit 290 and have an OB, you know, might might go over 400 and like you and a lot of these guys have speed you don’t think about with Henderson and these guys that are 3030, ish, just freaky. We just buried Ricky Henderson. You know, you might have two or three Ricky Anderson’s on the team, like, two years. I’ll

Luke Jones  27:47

never say that, because Henderson is one of the all time, all time greats. Yeah, you’re not that, yeah, but, but i Your point is well taken. And that’s and that’s the point I’ve been just trying to make in terms of summing up this offseason. Look, I’m not going to sit here and say that I’ve loved this off season. I haven’t Nestor. I mean, it’s been underwhelming to me, but that said I’ve followed their line of thinking with where they are, and just because you’re underwhelmed with what they’ve done to augment does not mean we should sell short what’s already here. That’s the point that I’ve been trying Well, the Dominguez

Nestor Aparicio  28:18

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and Sotos and the deal they made last year at the trade deadline for the kid that they got to figure out, like all that cakes gotta bake. I mean, sure.

Luke Jones  28:27

I mean, you know, I look, I’m glad you brought up Trevor rod, Trevor hodgers, because, look, I am not going to sit here and try to sell you on. Oh, he’s going to be their number three starter. Because, hey, I saw the same guy that everyone else saw when they acquired him and and maybe it turns out to be a complete flop, even though, at the end of the end of the day, I’m not that worried about Kyle Stowers or Connor Norby blossoming into these plus, plus Major League talents, right? And I think the rest of baseball kind of told you how they value those guys as well. That said, when you look at what this team’s done with a number of different individuals, including guys like Albert Suarez, right, who was a journeyman pitching internationally and hadn’t been in the majors in seven years, and look what they were able to find, you know, fine tune and tweak and and get him to be I’m not going to dismiss the possibility that they figure it out with Rogers, or that, you know, this Japanese pitcher who’s in his mid 30s, you know, talking about Sagano, who ends up being, like, really good, right? I’ve paid him to be pretty good. That’s my point. I mean, I, you know, I don’t think we can look here and we can, you know, and I’ve even talked about this, like Kittredge, for example, in terms of what I think he’s worth in a vacuum. I think what they paid him was probably a tad rich. But my point, and said always, is, is free agency. Yeah, right. I. Yes, it totally is, but, but my point in saying that is, I don’t think, even if you don’t, if all these signings don’t pan out, and look, Craig Kimbrell didn’t pan out last year. So it’s not like the track record’s perfect here, you know, but,

Nestor Aparicio  30:12

but Anthony Santander panned out for years and years and just got himself paid, right?

Luke Jones  30:16

So, yeah, I mean, he was a Rule five guy. I mean, credit Dan Duke for that. How many years did we bang on the on Dan Ducat as far as well, he banged on

8

Nestor Aparicio  30:24

Dan Duquette about Machado too, and Kramer still going to make 24 starts this year. Yeah? So, yeah,

Luke Jones  30:30

I mean that that deal didn’t end up, you know, that was the best, best you could do, right? And use the LD as was kind of a, you know, blame, you know,

Nestor Aparicio  30:39

dude, if they got a really good player would have turned into Trey Mancini, or some guy to be gone by now, and

Luke Jones  30:44

8

he probably would have been gone anyway, right? I mean, I I’ve already said to you spitballing, if they do acquire a Dylan cease, I wonder if Dean Kramer would be a guy that would be dangled, you know, to that team in terms of, like, an upside, back end of the Rotate, you know, not upside, high floor back end of the rotation guys. So, you know, who knows how it’s going to play out. But again, haven’t loved the off season. I’m not going to shy away from that. I’m not going to sit here and do cartwheels over it and say that they’ve improved their team dramatically, or anything like that. That said, don’t, don’t let that disappointment impact how you feel about the core of players that is in place, or their chance to win a World Series, which is legitimate, and that’s why Vegas has them at the wind total that they are, which, hey, it’s still behind. It’s a few games under the Yankees. I hear that they spend more, but at the same time, the Yankees lost one Soto and go look at the number of 30 something players the Yankees are depending on. You know, we’re talking about all these young guys popping, I will still take my chances in most cases. And again, I’m not talking about some fringe guy you bring up to the major leagues. We’re talking about legit top 100 or top 25 prospects in baseball that a lot of these guys have been. I’ll take my chances with some of those guys popping up against 30 somethings trying to fight off Father Time another year? I mean, we talked about this a lot with the Yankees, and at times it even hurt them last year, right? I mean, with some guys you know that stand healthy and all of that, so do the Yankees deserve to be ahead of the Orioles in terms of win, loss and Al East predictions right now, sure. At the same time, I’ll remind everyone that, as underwhelming as the Orioles were down the stretch last year, how many games did they lose? Lose out to the division? A couple, right? I mean, it’s not like the game.

Nestor Aparicio  32:38

Yeah. I’m trying to think, decide, just googled David Rubenstein in nursing homes to make sure that when I talk about a guy that ran nursing homes and was penny pinching dollars and stuff, I’m thinking to myself, let’s see. We can spend 120 million or 140 million and win 90 games, or we could spend 300 million to a 94 or 96 like the difference between spending all of that money, and how many more wins you’re going to have when you spreadsheet it out and say, Are we good enough, and can we build it as we go? And can we put ourselves in a position to be very competitive in April, May and June, be a plus 500 team and and hopefully stay healthy, hopefully gets him at bats for holiday. That makes him a real bait, like, see all that, everything I just said as to why they’re going to be better this year, which is, they have all of these. You know, players that are ascending position, players that are ascending. You hope that? Could you hope stay healthy? They appear to be ascending. They sure. I agree, right. They have to pedigree to be the horse you look at in February and say that horse can win the derby in May. And I would agree with all of this. So therefore, the FANBOY in me says, load your ass up on the pitching and spend a lot of money like you said you were going to do, because that’s what you know, Mr. Angelos thing was always well, when they get here, we’ll we’ll spend, we’ll buy, throw the arms by the bat, whatever the philosophy is, we’re good enough to win. Let’s go all in. Doesn’t feel all inish yet in that way for this year. But to your point, that’s baseball. Nobody ever goes all in because unless you’re a dying owner of the San Diego Padres and just throwing money around, I don’t, maybe you’re 74 year old millionaire, or you’re the max, right? Or the Dodger, well, the Dodgers, dodgers, right? Whatever. These are billionaires. So like, again, I’m going to play the world’s smallest, you know, violin for all of them, in a general sense. But when it comes to being competitive in all of this, I do see the validity of not giving all the money to Corbin burns for all these years for his arm to fall off, or Santander being the opposite of all these young players, which is, let’s say, a diminishing player. I’ve watched a lot of baseball, he’s going to be a diminishing player

Luke Jones  34:54

well and again, hit a career high 44 home runs. Is he going to do that again? You know? Is he so? We have Brady Anderson to hit 50, yeah, and look, I I love Anthony Santander, the person you know. I think for me, I would almost venture to say, you know, you might miss that presence a little bit more than you do, even trying to make up for the offense and the aggregate, you know, expecting each you know, four different young guys to be a little bit better than they were last year, and trying to make up for that. And assuming Tyler O’Neill, who you signed to this contract, you clearly like he’s got to stay healthy. You know, he’s been a very productive player when he’s been healthy, but that’s been a question so but now I’ve lost my train of thought. But I think when, when you just look at this team as it’s presently constructed, I think even if you went into the season now, I think you’d feel I think Mike Elias, let’s say maybe fans wouldn’t feel this way, because again, I get it. It’s been an underwhelming off season from an esthetic standpoint, from a standpoint of Santander and burns walk out the door and what have

Nestor Aparicio  36:04

you well, the headline here is patched up the pitching, and we hope the young guys are even better this year. Yeah, that’s kind of, that’s the story. Kind

8

Luke Jones  36:11

of, sort of is. But I will also throw out in the process of the moves that they’ve made. And again, you can sit here and say whether you liked them or not. They’re 15. They’re projected to be 15th in payroll. Now they’re at $155.8 million is there projected

Nestor Aparicio  36:26

121, 4155, okay, yeah, yeah. So I got a guy, I gotta say it right? Because I don’t want to, you know, I don’t want to be stupid. I want to

Luke Jones  36:34

be accurate. And this is, and again, my big question is, are you spending that in the wisest way you can, I think that’s certainly debatable. But I think where we need to remember, we’re still, you know, a little under a month out until spring training. And remember, at this time a year ago, Corbin Burns was not an Oriole. They acquired Corbin burns. What? A few days after the the Ravens lost to the chiefs in the title game. So we’re we’re still another week out from there. I’m not saying the Dylan cease move is coming. I’m not saying a move for Luis Castillo is coming. But that doesn’t mean that that move isn’t coming, whether we’re talking about next week, or two weeks from now, or a month from now, or to your point, and I think this might be the one that I would put the most money on right now, if I were a betting man, then it could be in June or July, right? I mean, I you let it take stock. But everything you just laid out about payroll, you talked about payroll and how much I’m going to spend to win this number of games compared to this number of games. This is why people who bring up the expanded postseason field. They they bring it up in a skeptical way for as much as everyone thinks about it at face value and saying, Oh, more teams make the playoffs, more owners are going to try. I think it’s the exact opposite. I think you have smart front offices, and the Orioles could be lumped in there if you want to have at it. I don’t care if you whether you agree with it or not, but there are absolutely own of general managers out there who would say, so what’s the baseline for us? You know, if we want to get in as the third wild card, hey, let’s aim higher the first wild card, because then you get to play the wild card series at home, like the Orioles did, right? You know, the first round by we’ve seen how that’s played out for a number of teams these, these last few years, in terms of whether it’s actually, you know, actually that much of an advantage, or the lions aren’t happy with it. Yeah. I mean, we say to the NFL sometimes even, so all that being said, what’s our you know, what’s our number? What do we need to how many wins do we need to hit to be the first or the second wild card, understanding that if the stars align, we can be better than that and win the division, and understanding, if we’re ravaged but completely gutted by injuries, it probably won’t matter that we spend that much more money those same injuries are going to sink us either way, right? If we if we have that kind of a year where we lose that many pitchers or that many middle of the order bats, we’re probably going to be screwed either way.

Nestor Aparicio  39:04

8

That many pitchers would be last year. They better never have another year.

Luke Jones  39:08

I mean, if they have another year like that, then, yeah, they’re going to be in trouble, right? And most teams are. I mean, the Dodgers, for as much money as they spend, still look at how their season played out last year. They still, I mean, you talk about a rotation that was held together by duct tape at the end of the year. But the Dodgers spend what they spend, and they have the talent that they have, and they made it work, but, but in most cases, when you’re looking at, you know, trying to run your models, your prediction, predictive models, and you know what your players are going to look like, what your team is going to be, you’re kind of trying to stack it up and say, you know, a lot of these teams, especially these mid market teams, let alone talking about small market teams in terms of payroll, they look at it and say, Hey, with a third wild card, you know that that’s less money that I have to spend to to get into the playoffs. And we know that the playoffs. Are kind of a crapshoot anyway, so just get in. I’m not saying I like that. I wish more teams would try for as much hand wringing as there is about the system being broken because of what the Dodgers and the Mets do. I

Nestor Aparicio  40:13

get in and beat him in a two game series, three game series, right? But I also hold

Luke Jones  40:17

the and I might be generous with this number, the 10 owners in baseball, if not more, that aren’t trying really at all in any given year, you know, but, but when you have an expanded playoff field, to me, it’s the exact opposite of what Rob Manfred sells it as you know, yeah, they get more TV money to split among the 30 clubs, but it also makes it easier to get into the playoffs. So why would I try? Why would I spend quite as much when I’m not going to necessarily be rewarded for that, anymore than just get in, just get in lower the floor, baby. That’s that’s the game. I mean that. That’s what I really think it is. And and do I think some of that is at work with Mike Elias, maybe to a degree to an extent, he’s done the

8

Nestor Aparicio  41:01

math on it, yeah. So they have all their probabilities and statistics and analytics on all that too. Right now, all that being said to

Luke Jones  41:10

bring it back full circle, because you said this at the beginning of our discussion, is that methodology going to inspire people to buy into your brand and and buy 13 game packages and 26 game packages, and they

Nestor Aparicio  41:24

send me emails every day, just so you know, every day they’ve done this off season, has it

Luke Jones  41:29

8

done enough to really, truly recruit people? Oh, that said, I also said at the beginning of the off season to you, I think the Orioles need to do a better job of selling the young stars that they do have on their roster right now, and doing more than just the caravan right for example. So, but I I also think a lot of this, you know, we’ve been over the territory of they botched their season ticket holder handling back in August. I think that had a negative impact on postseason ticket sales the way that the team played over the last couple months of the season did not help the ridiculous scheduling process that Major League Baseball has for those wild card round games that can be what at one, four or eight o’clock, depending on what TV time slot they want to put them in. I think it was a perfect, you know, not perfect, imperfect storm of events that led to the 1000s of empty seats we saw for for those couple games, and not to mention the 30 years of scar tissue that you have pointed out over and over. I’m glad you’re

Nestor Aparicio  42:33

there, bringing all this up, because when I bring it up, it just, you know, it’s me being me. I said, No, it’s fair. He’d be the only one pointing out facts about like, you have a business and a reputation and a brand that’s damaged, and remember, and if you don’t acknowledge that your brand is damaged, it, you know, we all do. I mean, we all do. I mean, literally, anybody that’s been here knows this, if they’re going to come in from Seattle and come in from Atlanta and pretend that that there hasn’t been like, damage done here that needs to be undone, not just with little Nestor and Dundalk, the loud mouth, Hispanic guy, that it’s, you know, it it’s a lacrosse community, too. That’s another issue that we’re going into lacrosse season, not for you or me, but for the rest of the world. It’s lacrosse season for kids, parents, like all of that, I just always think like they need to be much more top of mind than you and I now spending 42 minutes of our valuable air time here talking about them, when we could be shoveling dirt on Lamar and Mark Andrews and you know, like, how long will they do that at the fan? I don’t know, B, A, L is their partner, both, whatever. But like getting people okay, football’s over. Band Aid. Here’s a hanky. That’s good. Baseball starts, let’s go. Let’s we have hope again. Let me hope again, right? Yeah, like, and we really do have hope. We haven’t had that. I’ve been over here 33 years. Three years, there have been maybe five years where I could sit here on January something and say, they might be a playoff team. They should be a playoff team this year. They should be,

Luke Jones  44:05

I don’t know. I mean, I, you know, I don’t know, not be. I look at the full landscape of the American League and who, who do you say definitively is better than the Orioles right now? I’d say the Yankees. Now, I don’t think that’s 12 games in the division. Run away with it. The the division race is over in late July, better, but

Nestor Aparicio  44:24

I don’t mean $200 million better, but 150 in terms of, but in terms of the rest of the American League, you know? I mean, I think Houston, Houston’s taking a step back. It very much feels like Right? I mean, when you look at, well, I have John McClane on this week, and he his last text to me was that he’s pissed about the Astros. Yeah, we’re interested in Santander to replace Tucker. And he wrote here, I’m pissed. And you know, he’s I’m pissed. So when I got to get John on, I’ll get that this week from Right, right. So, so

8

Luke Jones  44:55

again, my point with all that is, you know, they’re still in a. Good spot? Is it as good as you’d like it to be based on the off season? No, and I’ll agree with that, and I’ll do they need to as an organization, as a from a business standpoint, need to work harder to recruit people, absolutely. But I also said to you, going back two or three years ago, this was never going to be a light switch, it’s a dial. So you need to have a good feel for how to turn that dial right and how to pick it up in terms of recruiting and your ticket sales, your promotion schedule. You know, I look at their promotion schedule, I haven’t, you know, and I apologize because as I’m bringing this up, I should have done this, but it feels like it’s a little more robust than it’s been in previous years. I’ve said that to you, go look at the promotion and giveaway schedule for even teams that you would consider to be higher market teams, they all have giveaways. They do those things pretty regularly, even during the week. You’ll see some of them because, you know, other than the Dodgers and a couple other teams and you know the Phillies, you know, you’ll find that even some of these, you know, some, some of these teams that spend way more than the Orioles on payroll, they’re not drawing an amazing crowd on a Tuesday night in May, right? I mean, there’s, there are games where there’s a look

Nestor Aparicio  46:14

the Orioles were the place to be here for your daddy’s time. Your mommy me, you know, by the time you came along, you saw a little bit of in your childhood. It hasn’t been the place to be in since the Ravens got here, really, since Cal Roca, like hasn’t been the place to be, maybe even a playoff game in 2014 with Machado. But it wasn’t the place to be last October, on two afternoons in October with the bunting hanging and all the things that visions of sugar plums that you and I have dreamed of, of having players like, you know, rushman and holiday and headers, how bad you had to be to get those players moving the wall back, moving the wall in, dealing with the creepy owner for 30 years, like, yeah, you know, I’m past all of that. Let’s go. Don give me a call. Katie, give me a call. Let’s sell some tickets. That’s some fun down at the ballpark, you know,

Luke Jones  46:58

but, but that’s, you know, we’ve talked about this on the Raven side. And again, I don’t want to get too much into too much into it as we’re as our conversations run as long as it has already, but you get to the point where you have to recognize you’ve got to work harder to recruit people. You’ve got to work harder to sell tickets. You know, the Orioles are certainly in a way more advantageous position to do that now than they were five years ago, when you were selling, oh, hey, Adley rutschman will be here in three years, right? I mean, they’re in a better spot than they were then, but a lot of damage was done over the years, and there’s a lot more competing in just in general. You know, the NFL is the only thing that’s, you know, I know you’re not an NBA guy. Go hear the discourse about the NBA. And, you know, the quality of play, the how long the regular season is, ratings, all these different things, right? I mean, every sport deals with this, other than the NFL. The NFL is the one thing that’s kind of just, you know, and they can do anything. Yeah, exactly. They can do whatever they want. I mean, look at the commanders this

Nestor Aparicio  47:59

8

week. So how quickly that’s deodorized all of it, right? I mean, it’s just been deodorized by winning by this kid. And the Orioles have this new owner, Money Bags GM, that knows what he’s doing clearly enough to be competitive, enough for me to give him the benefit of the doubt whether he speaks to me or not. And you know, and a track record of two years of of navigating really tough stuff. I mean, radish wells means, like all the injuries, Batista navigating that, you know, ravens couldn’t navigate that when Humphrey and Jackson, these guys got hurt, Stanley, all these guys got hurt a couple years ago. They didn’t navigate it. They lost the Bengals with Snoop bond Lee, running around.

Luke Jones  48:41

But if they’ve, if they can learn a lesson from the Ravens at this point in time now, and the Ravens deal with this too, we see what the ticket market is for regular season games for the ravens, right? It’s not what it was 1520, years ago, that’s for sure, right? I mean, not even getting into that, it’s just, it’s the truth.

Nestor Aparicio  48:57

Go, Look, I know two people they’ve thrown out of their seats, so I can’t point that out, but

Luke Jones  49:00

I think when you look at that, what’s the key? And this is where we kind of come full circle and say, we’ll see, and we’ll see what happens between now and the trade deadline. Let’s say they’ve got to win in October. I mean, that’s they’re at a point now, much like the Ravens now, where it’s just like, wake me up in January, right? And I don’t, and I say that facetiously, it’s still fun. They win a lot. Lamar wins, MVP. The guys make Pro Bowls. They’ve been great in the regular season. But legacy wise, what you want to define you It’s January, and the Orioles now, having been to the playoffs two years in a row and having not won a game, get just getting there is not going to be good enough. So that’s where they do face a little bit of a challenge from a recruiting standpoint, from a growing your brand standpoint, because they do need to get there and win some games. Doesn’t mean they need to win the World Series this year, but if they get to the playoffs again and they’re bounced in the wild card round, or if they’re swept in the Division Series. You know, after they win the wild card round, no bueno, right? I mean, it’s

8

Nestor Aparicio  50:03

nobody. Nothing tastes good here. It didn’t taste good in Buffalo. So if Andrew’s caught the ball and Tucker kicks a game winner, it just it tastes bad when you don’t win. And we’re feeling that this week, and that’s why I’m trying to breathe air into the baseball side and say, All right, the next, our next best hope is, used to be the draft for the Ravens. Now it’s well, baseball teams, you know, on schedule to be a playoff team. Let’s hold them to that. Let’s hold them to that, right? Yeah,

Luke Jones  50:33

so we’ll see what happens between now and the start of the season. And again, to your point, and I, if you’re going to ask me, the most likely outcome. I do think it’s something that might wait and drag into the regular season, because, again, they need to take the next step in October, this rotation as it’s presently constructed, that’s where I do have some skepticism about, about where they’re, where they whether they have enough upside to do that, so see how it plays out. But hey, Vegas still likes this team as it pertains to looking at it in the context of 30 teams in Major League Baseball. So let’s keep that in mind and and not lose sight of the optimism about the young talent that they already have that’s established and more on the way to see what it can become here in 2025

Nestor Aparicio  51:19

I’m doing a lot of football around here this week. Got Greg cosell on. I got John McLean, Hall of Fame voter in football, but a crazed Houston Astro and baseball historian and fan as well. So I’m sure he and I will be talking about, you know, Jose Cruz and Nolan Ryan and JR Richard, amongst other people. And I’ll wear my pastor Renee jersey, probably where my Derrick Henry Jersey did to get it, to get his juices flowing a little bit. So we’ll be doing a lot of football, but also some baseball. Barry Bloom’s been hitting me up. I want to hit him up because he’s out in the desert in Arizona with Corbin burns, amongst others. And it is baseball season here, I guess. I mean, it’s not football season anymore, unless you’re watching on Sunday night, unless you’re a commander’s fan or a Eagles fan. Oh, what a weekend. Maybe I should make dinner plans. No wonder I’m talking about baseball. I’m Nestor. We are wnst. Am 1570 tassel, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore positive.








































































































































































































































































































































































































 Luke Jones and Nestor give Jan…Santander
heading to Blue Jays
Wed, Jan 22,
2025 5:27AM • 52:17
SUMMARY KEYWORDSOrioles
offseason, Santander departure, Blue Jays signing, pitching concerns, young
talent, Adley Rutschman, Felix Batista, bullpen depth, Corbin Burns, payroll
strategy, ticket sales, playoff expectations, expanded playoffs, fan
engagement, baseball season
SPEAKERSNestor
Aparicio, Luke Jones
 Nestor Aparicio 
00:02Welcome
home. We are W, N, S, T, AM, 1570, tasks of Baltimore. We are Baltimore
positive and for a brief moment, probably not a moment, probably for like, the
next eight or nine months, uh, exhaling, all things ravens, inhaling all things
Sarasota and Orioles. Luke Jones joins us now. We are going to be doing a cup
of Super Bowl two weeks from now. We have been cleaning out ravens lockers and
talking about Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson and Eric de Costa and draft picks
and certainly Patrick mahomes and Josh Allen, but we got baseball season here,
Luke, first off, I mean, I know you’ve been in the purple bat cave here through
the weekend and the ice and snow, and it’s been chilly this week, and like all
of that, I do think it’s a little bit of a come up for air time. I a lot of our
kindred spirits who have remained Orioles and and ravens and before that, colts
fans for all of these years, the minute that the seasons over, all the mark,
Andrews, Lamar, buffalo, all that, it’s well, how many days the pitchers and
catchers report? When’s opening day? All of that, you are certainly one of
those people. So I will open the door to say, let’s not talk anymore about the
football game last week. Can we do that for a couple minutes? Can we just,
like, pretend it didn’t happen? Yeah, let’s
 Luke Jones 
01:25just go
from the team that that can’t get the job done in January to the team that
can’t get the job done in October, right? I thought
 Nestor Aparicio 
01:33you were
the nice guy of the two of us. Why do I if we’re gonna
 Luke Jones 
01:37transition
from ravens the Orioles? I mean that that’s kind of a, you know, that’s a
hanging curve ball bill and about
 Nestor Aparicio 
01:42my press
pass while we’re on. But anyway, so nonetheless, it is baseball season, and we
have plenty time for football, but this is a time where you and I’ve been
assessing football and saying, all right, what are you gonna do about the
guards? What are they gonna do about this? What are gonna do about that? Like
we’re on to that already, and we’re gonna have eight months of, you know,
whether Kyle van Noy is coming back. Meanwhile, the baseball thing, you know,
we’re in the 11th hour of getting ready for spring training, and Corbin Burns
is gone. And I guess this is the entree John Martin from the lottery always
likes my segues. This is the segue to saying, Hmm, that Santander guy. Is he
doing in Toronto,
 Luke Jones 
02:21yeah. I
mean, full disclosure, you did not receive the wnst Baltimore positive text on
the text alert because I was in the midst of locker clean out. I actually
didn’t see the Santander news till probably 20 minutes after it came out. But
at the same time, we knew he wasn’t coming back. I mean, the moment they signed
Tyler O’Neill, they told you where they were with Santander, and you know,
we’re going to see how this plays out. I I said all along, I wasn’t opposed to
bringing back Santander, but I also said I was not hot and bothered about a
five year commitment to do it. You’re talking about a 30 year old coming off of
a career high in home runs. He had 44 home runs his previous career high before
that was 33 but he’s been a guy who’s 28 home runs two years ago. You know, the
walk, the walk numbers have gotten better over the last couple years, but we’re
still only talking about someone with a career three, oh, at seven on base
percentage. You know, I think his defense in right field. There’s a discussion
there how much longer he’s really going to be, you know, an outfielder, you
know, corner outfielder, rather than a DH or a first baseman. You know, I still
think that’s probably his long term position. So they’ll miss him, from a
standpoint of, he was a good soldier. He’s one of their core players that
helped anchor the turnaround he’s been. He’s made himself into a heck of a
player when you consider where he was. I mean, this was a Rule five pick back
in 2017 and got better and went through a lot health wise. You know, he’s
stayed relatively healthy, although he was pretty banged up over the course of
last season. So I don’t want to belittle the player. I mean, Santander. He’s
been a, you know, a guy that’s been worth two or three wins above replacement
the last few years. You know, he’s been a good core player for this team. But I
don’t think anyone ever looked at him over the last couple years and thought,
Wow, that’s a guy that you’re going to build around long term. So, you know, I
think if put it this way, if Anthony Santander had been, you know, more, in the
neighborhood of what they gave Tyler O’Neal, then okay, but I don’t think Mike
Elias and the Orioles front office view that as being the best long term
commitment you can make. So look, it’s not my money at the end of the day. So
I’m not going to sit here and and pat them on the back over that. But if I’m
trying to be in the mold of in the mode of thinking as them, then I can
understand not wanting to go five years with someone who’s 30 and, you know,
kind of has a skill set that doesn’t necessarily age all that well. I think I.
He’s got two good years in him, and then we’re going to see after that, you
know? I But if you’re Toronto, I mean, we talked about the Orioles and how the
Orioles have been quote in on these guys, right? That’s been Toronto’s whole
story the last couple years, going back to Otani last off season. So, dude, I
was in
 Nestor Aparicio 
05:16Toronto
the night that they reported that Otani was on the plane coming to Toronto,
right? I literally was there that night. Man, yeah.
 Luke Jones 
05:24So, I
mean, and look the Blue Jays. And we’ve used the Blue Jays, we’ve held them up
as a cautionary tale for the Orioles. I mean, the the Blue Jays about two
years, two and a half years before the Orioles really started to turn the
corner, you know, they were, they were perceived in a similar light, you know,
with Vlad and Bucha and all these young players. And, you know, they’ve had
some success, but nothing in October, right? Nothing to write about in terms of
postseason or anything like that. It’s been abrupt for what for them when
they’ve made it so, you know, they wanted to do something clearly, you know,
they were another one of those teams that tried, I to get one Soto. But, you
know, we’ve talked about this, you know, what does it mean to try? What does it
mean to finish second or third for every free agent, right? I mean, doesn’t
mean I’m I’m questioning your effort. But if you don’t land those guys, what
does it really do for you? So they land Santander. He stays in the Al east.
Certainly the Orioles need to be aware of that. I, you know, again, if it were
a three year deal on those terms, I’d say, Man, I really would have liked the
Orioles to have been in on that. But, you know, for a five year deal, and I
think what there’s even, think there’s a vesting option that in there too. I
didn’t get a chance to read all the, yeah, I just, I’m wondering what the
productivity
 Nestor Aparicio 
06:45level
is, and that, um, in the baseball industry, we go back to Pat Gillick even
saying to me, 28 years ago, you don’t want to be the person spending the most
in the room, on the least. You know what I mean, like, in a general sense, it’s
not, even if you have money to burn, it’s not really money to burn. Um, and
they burn through some money on pitching like I’m not if I’m writing the, I
don’t know, not half written book of their off season. But I’d say they’re at
75% of whatever they’re going to do at this point in their off season, to be
evaluated, and it’s never the real evaluation comes the day after the season
ends, right? I mean, ask Eric the cost to ask us we’ve been evaluating the
Raven season. In totality, it’s always a going thing for me, even with pitching
in money and young players, and let’s say rushman gets fixed this year, and
beside becomes the number one prospect in the sport somehow, and that gets you
Dylan cease on july 27 I don’t know. You know, that’s the way baseball plays
out. So there’s nothing absolute. The world keeps spinning in baseball. So I
can’t evaluate it and say, How’s the off season? I can only say, How’s the off
season right now, because Corbin burns came along right about now last year,
and so did arm troubles for Bradish and everything else that we were talking
about. Tyler wells this time last year, right we’re talking about John means
this time last year. So the things that were last year aren’t this year, and
where are you on all of it? Because we have a talk. We’ve been so Baseball,
baseball, baseball, bring me in on your evaluative process on it. Still need
another starter, because they don’t have a one. At least they maybe they think
they do with Rodriguez and Ethel and right bullpen, they’ll never have enough
of that. I don’t think you’ll ever take the foot off of that. And I’ll never
take the foot off of I’ll believe Batiste is a closer again, when I see him be
a closer, not the one guy from two years ago, just being a guy that like, 30
saves into this and five blown saves, and they’re 64 and 41 or whatever. You
know wherever they’re going to be. Believing that at the All Star break, you
have a guy, a dude, you know that the dude in that spot, I don’t know. And then
the Santander thing, I honestly haven’t thought much about their lineup,
because all I’ve been thinking about their pitching, you know, I thought, well,
you know, if Richmond stinks and if Westbrook gets hurt again, and a nine
Anderson, the only guy that hits Santander couldn’t save them last year, but they’re
gonna miss that bad when I saw him with a little blue jay logo, I’m like, I
don’t know if I like this.
 Luke Jones 
09:27Yeah, I
mean, but at the same time all I heard people complain about the last couple
years, if the the Orioles rely on the home run, well, go look at Anthony
Santander split so, I mean, he was a 200 hitter through the first two months of
the season, and over the last two months of the season, he hit 13 home runs,
but he batted 209, right? So I hear everything you’re saying, but I
 Nestor Aparicio 
09:50don’t
live with him departing. I just don’t think they’ve replaced the offense or the
pitching in my in my mind they’re a little bit of a diminished team from where
we left them when Corbin Burns was coming. And out everything. You know what I
mean, like, I don’t think they’re a better team this week, late January. You
have not if you’re sending me Birdland memberships and you’re killing eggs,
you’re done. If you’re selling me on the off season, not just the buying
tickets and David Rubenstein being a great guy. And you and I using the money
that I’m going to cancel today, I still haven’t canceled my New Orleans trip to
turn that into you and I going down to Sarasota for four or five days and
running around and having a good time with baseball and doing our jobs
professionally, and maybe hanging out in a coffee shop and talking about
baseball in Sarasota. Um, like, I don’t have any of that as a host of as nasty
Nestor or Baltimore positive or the guy on the internet to say things have
changed, and it’s baseball season and new sheriffs in town, and look at the
players that they’ve sat in the commitment that they’ve had, and look at Cal
Ripken on the commercials. And I don’t, I don’t know, but it’s their time now,
and I beat the hell out of them at Christmas time because they weren’t taking
advantage of the Raven success. You know what I mean? Like, I beat them up
saying, You need to be in front of people now they’re having some caravan. The
caravan so great that they’re not even gonna tell you who’s coming. Like, what?
Come on, man. Come on, man. It’s baseball season now. Then my bar raises for
them, and I become a brick on the radio again, because I just don’t there’s no
way to portray this as an improved team in the off season. I don’t, I can’t do
that. I don’t think you can.
 Luke Jones 
11:25Oh, see,
I’ll disagree a little bit from the standpoint of, if you look at their
internal talent that they have, and expecting improvements from young guys, as
opposed to when you have players like Anthony Santander, who’s 30 years old,
where that trajectory is not very unlikely to continue going up. Right at best,
he’s going to be the same player that he’s been. I’m also finding the next
version of that. So, so that. So that would be my argument to what you just
said. Do I believe that wholeheartedly? No. I mean, I’d like to see them have
more from us upside from their starting pitching standpoint. You know, we’ve
talked about it a lot in terms of what they did with Charlie Morton, in terms
of what they’ve done with tamayuki Sagano, and whatever he’s going to be, but
clearly they think he’s going to be something or you don’t give him, even on a
one year deal, you don’t give him the amount of money that they gave him. So,
you know, the back half of the rotation has more depth than it did a few months
ago. But when you’re missing Corbin burns, that’s a pretty Corbin burn sized
hole at the top of your rotation is a lot to overcome, however, and this is
where I’ll stick up for them a little bit while. I think all of the concerns
about where they are starting pitching wise, are fair on the flip side, I do
think a lot of people are vastly underrating the group of position talent that
they have at this point in time, even with Anthony Santander going out the door
because gunner Henderson. Does he have another level he might? I’m not saying
you expect that, but what he was last year was a top four or five player in the
American League, if not all of baseball, right? I mean, that’s what you have
there. The Adley rutschman thing is pivotal, right? I’m going to give the
benefit of the doubt that we what the player that we saw over the first two
years of his career is much more the player that he is, rather than the guy
that we saw struggle over the final three months of the season. I still am not
convinced that he wasn’t dealing with some kind of at least nagging injury,
even if they don’t want to come out and say it, for whatever reason. I think
you know what you mentioned about Jordan westburg. I mean, yeah, if he gets
hurt, you can say that about anyone. If Juan Soto breaks his ankle on the on
opening day. Then, yeah, the Mets are going to be really they’re going to be
sunk, right? I mean, they’re going to be in trouble. So you can say that about
anyone. But you know, Jordan Westberg hitting another level. You know, Jackson
holiday, I absolutely expect to be better in his age 21 season than he was in
his age 20 season. So, you know, you go down the list of the players that they
have, I think a lot of people because of the frustration on the pitching side
and just the nature of this off season feeling, man, even though, as I’ve said
to you, and we’ve talked about in isolation, every move they’ve made, I can
understand the rationale, you know, even if it’s not necessarily the direction
I would have gone in, but I think on the flip side of that, it’s led to a lot
of people selling short what they have the Orioles for what it’s worth. And I
just looked at four different sports books. If you look at the Orioles in terms
of win, you know, win, loss total, and World Series odds, let me
 Nestor Aparicio 
14:37guess,
because I’m not a gambler. Hold on. Let me guess. I think the over under on
them is 8889
 Luke Jones 
14:47and a
half. All right, all right. You know what? That’s second best in the American
League. Thank you. 89
 Nestor Aparicio 
14:51and a
half. Would I bet the over or the under on them right this minute? Um. I think
I would bet the over. Can I make a happy case for the Orioles? Then you send
this to Katie? Send this because I’m about to make a happy case for them. All
right. I’m about to make the option for sure case for them. All right, a they
have ascending players, and whether you think rutschman, whatever that was last
year, he’s a one, one overall. I don’t know. God forbid there’s something you
know, some issue I don’t know about, or we don’t know about the you know that
anything is possible, right? Um, but I, but I would say pitching wise. I think
they’ve gotten enough arms now to have enough number three pitchers and number
four pitchers. And if you mix Dean Kramer in and say he’ll be a little better,
Rodriguez will be, will take the next step, which, that’s
 Luke Jones 
15:47the big
one for the rotation has to happen all the way through, sure. Okay, they have
to
 Nestor Aparicio 
15:52get
Corbin burns production out of a guy they’re not paying to be Corbin burns,
because they’re paying all these other guys half of Corbin burns, or a third of
Corbin burns to be a third of Corbin burns. I know what you’re getting with 41
year pitchers, Japanese kid. He’s not a kid a lot of money. Um, who knows? I
mean, who knows those things are hell in a bottle, because it could, you know,
I’ve seen her a decade arabo, and I’ve also seen like, guys that that are
Tanaka, you know, guys that are like, you don’t know enough about Hilo younger,
but guys you don’t know enough about but I would think this isn’t Sid Thrift,
although I had a great Sid thrift conversation last week with Mike Balani from
Buffalo. Sid thrift was the GM of the pirates when Balani was running the
bisons in the 80s. So he spent a lot of time with Sid. So when I channeled my
Sid, I, you know, I got some great I got cheers from Balani because it was
pretty good Sid. But I’m thinking like they’ve done a lot of math, you know, on
the Japanese guy, they’ve, there’s a lot of, there’s 25 years of studies on
what the level of their play is, and the level of this play. And these guys
think they’re geniuses, right? So they can look at tape, they can look at this,
they can they can bring them over, and they can say, arm angle, speed,
velocity. They poke them around. They’ve done the we do know they’ve given him
a physical, pending physical. We do know that that’s a real thing in the modern
era. As I see you chuckle, but my optimism for them is that West Berg’s going
to become the next thing. And I, I’m trying to compare him to somebody, but I
don’t know Scott Roland, you know, I don’t Okay. I’ll just throw a name out,
right, Hall of Famer, you know, just a guy that is going to be a really solid,
rock solid guy that you want to have on your team, and a build around guy.
Maybe he build around guy in the end, because gunner may be thinking, I’m going
to be a Dodger. I’m going to be wherever, wherever the wind blows me the most
money. That’s where I’m going to be. And if that’s the case, you can’t marry
that. You can’t, you can’t. You know, you know, I dated a Greek girl back when
I was single. She was not allowed to marry me like, literally, her family would
not allow it. So therefore, if your thought is your agent is going to direct
you to the most money, maybe the oils get there in the end, but they can’t get
there now, and we’ve seen this. So I think of that money and that, but I do
think gunner Henderson. If he’s going to be that guy to get Juan Soto money,
he’s gonna play like Juan Soto, and that’s gonna help you win a freaking lot of
games, more than 89 and a half games, right? If you have any kind of pitching
at all. And I think these guys, for as much as our guy at the fan, likes to
blow hot wind on the internet about how stupid a lot, I don’t think these guys
are stupid. I think they’ve worked in one organization that was really thrifty,
and they came here working with these maniacs that owned the team before. The
new guy might be a different kind of maniac. I don’t know. There’s no saying
what they’re doing, but he’s given them money to sign these pictures, one at a
time, which I can’t argue with any of them. And I can’t argue that if I’m SIG
my Dell, and I worked in casinos, that I wouldn’t look at it and say, Give me
$10 on black, $10 on black, $10 on black, you know, like and instead of 50 on
red, let’s just play. Charlie Morton, still, you’re going to be a good leader.
Going to be that Kyle Gibson kind of guy, but give you some energy, a guy you want
around. Let’s give him some money, and let’s work it out, because we couldn’t
figure out burns, and we can’t figure out cease, and we’re not getting scuba so
let’s figure this out this way. And you know, I’m sorry I’m lingering, but I’m
trying to be optimistic about it, because if you gave me $1 I guess I take the
over 90 based on the last two years, just based on the fact that they’re going
to figure this out, and they have an owner at least has money, and they have a
minor league system that can figure out a big blockbuster deal if they need to
in July. So that’s where I. You know what? I mean, yeah.
 20:02And
look, I I don’t think you’re too far off there in how they’re thinking about
this. And look, when I bring up the win over, under for wins, my point with
that is, Vegas still thinks this is going to be a good team, right? I mean,
 Nestor Aparicio 
20:16this
isn’t, yeah, yeah, exactly. It’s just something, a barometer, why to buy
tickets, because they’re going to be a good baseball team. Now. Team.
 Luke Jones 
20:22Now, now
I will say this, and I won’t back down from this. And you know not that it
played out because Corbin Burns did exactly what you thought he would, and you
didn’t play deep enough into the postseason, and really even gage it. But I do
think as they’re presently constructed, they are much more constructed to be
successful in the regular season, but in October, I’m kind of shrugging my
shoulders right now. Now the bullpen, I think, is deeper than it was at this
time a year ago, and that’s fully acknowledging what you said about Felix
Batista, but I think in terms of just what you have, because you brought back
Sir Anthony Dominguez, closed games, did a good job for them for the most part,
over the final two months of the season, you still have yen your canoe. I think
Gregory Soto is such a wild card for their bullpen in terms of he was not good
in August when they got him. He wasn’t good in Philly. That’s why the Phillies
traded him at the trade deadline. But was better in September. He’s not, you know,
he’s, I think he’ll be, I believe, 30 years old by opening day. So he’s not so
old to think that his skills are diminished. If he can be the guy that was, you
know, an all star caliber kind of reliever a few years ago with Detroit, then I
think you have the makings of a pretty nice core of high leverage guys there.
And, you know, that’s not even talking about Andrew Kittredge, who, obviously
they added and and even talking about like, Where does Albert Suarez fit in? Is
he going to be your fourth or fifth starter? Or is he a guy that transitions
to, you know, maybe a bridge guy that pitches the sixth or seventh inning for
you a lot of nights. So, so the point is, I think their bullpen, I feel better
about their bullpen now than I did a year ago at this time. And that’s fully
acknowledging that, yes, there could, you know, Felix Batista might not be
Felix Batista, at least early on in the season, but you know, there’s also, to
me, there’s also no reason to think that he can’t be effective for them, even
if it’s even if that means he’s not an all star reliever, he should still be
effective, right? I, you know, there’s been a long enough period of time. This
isn’t a rushed Tommy John rehab for him. So, you know, I’m cautiously
optimistic about Batista, so I like to bullpen more up, you know, top half of
the rotation. We’ve talked about that. We’ll continue to talk about that. I
still think what you just mentioned is very much in play in terms of, let it
play out. See where you are in June, and see where Dylan ceases at that point,
or see where any number of other number one, number two starter types, you
know, another Zach Eflin type at the deadline, right? I mean, that worked out
well for the Orioles last year. You know, Zach Eflin pitched at a very high
level for them, you know, for all their other trade deadline deals that you
kind of looked at and said, Oh, that wasn’t so good. Eflin and Sir Anthony
Dominguez, you give thumbs up to in terms of what worked so, you know. So I
think all of that being said, acknowledging that the pitching is not perfect,
and there’s upside concern with the rotation, the bullpen, you know, but a lot
of that’s hinging on what Batista looks like. But again, I think it’s deeper. I
do like the bullpen more than I did a year ago at this time. But on the flip
side, I do think people sell short the upside that’s there with their young
core of position talent. So now that does not mean that Heston kersta is going
to become an all star outfielder this year. That doesn’t mean Jackson holiday
is going to be an all star at second base, you know, overnight, one of these
guys may not pan out in the way that you know a few years ago, even though he
was never the highly touted top 25 kind of prospect in baseball. But, you know,
Kyle Stowers didn’t work out, right? I mean, you know, he and even in Miami,
that’s kind of proven out, he’s probably more of a quad a player, you know. And
I love Kyle Stowers, great kid, but not all of them are going to play it pan
out, but you have enough of those guys, and enough of them have already become
all star talents, you know, let’s make the assumption that Adley rutschman The
three months was just, he was hurt, slumping, just weird, and he goes back to
being Adley rutschman of 22 and 23 and the first half, you know, not even the
first half of 24 because that was even a weird kind of season for him, just in
its totality, if he goes back to being that the Orioles have two top 10 MVP
caliber players in the American League, right off the bat there, and that’s
before you get to westburg. That’s before you get to Colton cows, or that’s
before you get to Heston, kerstad, and whatever he might be in an increased
role. That’s, you know, Tyler. Feel better
 Nestor Aparicio 
24:57about it
if they had signed burns for two. 100 million dollars, of course, right? I
mean, you know what? I mean, it would look a lot more like what the Yankees
would do, or what the Red Sox used to do, or what the Dodgers currently do. No
doubt, which, you know. Or if you want to go play with 35 year old guys from
Japan who’ve never pitched it, never thrown a pitch, and a 41 year old pitcher
who’s thrown too many pitches, and, you know, just down the line, it feels rag
muffin to some degree, but it’s not complete. And if whomever this year’s Dylan
Ceaser scuba is, whoever that guy is that’s on a contract or about to expire or
would like to have Peston cursed at, and three other bags of BIS and whatever
else you’re going to do to bring in that kind of picture. I mean, what if the
Tigers go in the tank this year? And scuba is good, I don’t I’m making things
up, right, right? But something’s going to happen. Arms are going to fall off.
Guys are going to get hurt. Corbin burns might have, you know, you take a liner
off the knee second week. Who knows, right? But for them, they’re in a position
financially and depth in the organization, that if you already think, well,
with Charlie Morton, we could be a 90 win team. We’ll worry about it when the
season gets going. Let’s let some young guy, let’s let let the cake bake. You
know, let Russ bank, let, let’s just let the season happen. We have a good
manager. We have a good system. We have these veteran pitchers we brought in
who have some semblance of a track record. We have this kid that might be Jim
Palmer, like we’re thinking of, you know, think about him in those terms. We
don’t have five of them, but we have five guys that might be, yeah, rich dower
and Doug the senses and you know, better than Rick Dempsey, you know what I
mean, you might have a you might have three Eddie Murray’s on this team by the
time holiday gets here. Like, you know what I mean, like westburg, ruchman
Henderson, holiday cows are, I’ll throw him in for now, because he can still be
pretty good. I don’t know he’s going Hall of Fame based on what’s valuable when
 Luke Jones 
27:03you
when, but when you account for his defense on top of what you know,
inconsistent offensive profile acknowledged, he’s a pretty valuable player.
 Nestor Aparicio 
27:11There’s
five guys right there that’s all are going to get 100 million plus dollar
contracts when their time comes, no matter what they hit. Because in the bottom
end, West birds going to hit 258 and hit 21 home run and be just okay. On the
best side, you might hit 290 and have an OB, you know, might might go over 400
and like you and a lot of these guys have speed you don’t think about with
Henderson and these guys that are 3030, ish, just freaky. We just buried Ricky
Henderson. You know, you might have two or three Ricky Anderson’s on the team,
like, two years. I’ll
 Luke Jones 
27:47never
say that, because Henderson is one of the all time, all time greats. Yeah,
you’re not that, yeah, but, but i Your point is well taken. And that’s and
that’s the point I’ve been just trying to make in terms of summing up this
offseason. Look, I’m not going to sit here and say that I’ve loved this off
season. I haven’t Nestor. I mean, it’s been underwhelming to me, but that said
I’ve followed their line of thinking with where they are, and just because
you’re underwhelmed with what they’ve done to augment does not mean we should
sell short what’s already here. That’s the point that I’ve been trying Well,
the Dominguez
 Nestor Aparicio 
28:18and
Sotos and the deal they made last year at the trade deadline for the kid that
they got to figure out, like all that cakes gotta bake. I mean, sure.
 Luke Jones 
28:27I mean,
you know, I look, I’m glad you brought up Trevor rod, Trevor hodgers, because,
look, I am not going to sit here and try to sell you on. Oh, he’s going to be
their number three starter. Because, hey, I saw the same guy that everyone else
saw when they acquired him and and maybe it turns out to be a complete flop,
even though, at the end of the end of the day, I’m not that worried about Kyle
Stowers or Connor Norby blossoming into these plus, plus Major League talents,
right? And I think the rest of baseball kind of told you how they value those
guys as well. That said, when you look at what this team’s done with a number
of different individuals, including guys like Albert Suarez, right, who was a
journeyman pitching internationally and hadn’t been in the majors in seven
years, and look what they were able to find, you know, fine tune and tweak and
and get him to be I’m not going to dismiss the possibility that they figure it
out with Rogers, or that, you know, this Japanese pitcher who’s in his mid 30s,
you know, talking about Sagano, who ends up being, like, really good, right?
I’ve paid him to be pretty good. That’s my point. I mean, I, you know, I don’t
think we can look here and we can, you know, and I’ve even talked about this,
like Kittredge, for example, in terms of what I think he’s worth in a vacuum. I
think what they paid him was probably a tad rich. But my point, and said
always, is, is free agency. Yeah, right. I. Yes, it totally is, but, but my
point in saying that is, I don’t think, even if you don’t, if all these
signings don’t pan out, and look, Craig Kimbrell didn’t pan out last year. So
it’s not like the track record’s perfect here, you know, but,
 Nestor Aparicio 
30:12but
Anthony Santander panned out for years and years and just got himself paid,
right?
 Luke Jones 
30:16So,
yeah, I mean, he was a Rule five guy. I mean, credit Dan Duke for that. How
many years did we bang on the on Dan Ducat as far as well, he banged on
 Nestor Aparicio 
30:24Dan
Duquette about Machado too, and Kramer still going to make 24 starts this year.
Yeah? So, yeah,
 Luke Jones 
30:30I mean
that that deal didn’t end up, you know, that was the best, best you could do,
right? And use the LD as was kind of a, you know, blame, you know,
 Nestor Aparicio 
30:39dude, if
they got a really good player would have turned into Trey Mancini, or some guy
to be gone by now, and
 Luke Jones 
30:44he
probably would have been gone anyway, right? I mean, I I’ve already said to you
spitballing, if they do acquire a Dylan cease, I wonder if Dean Kramer would be
a guy that would be dangled, you know, to that team in terms of, like, an
upside, back end of the Rotate, you know, not upside, high floor back end of
the rotation guys. So, you know, who knows how it’s going to play out. But
again, haven’t loved the off season. I’m not going to shy away from that. I’m
not going to sit here and do cartwheels over it and say that they’ve improved
their team dramatically, or anything like that. That said, don’t, don’t let
that disappointment impact how you feel about the core of players that is in
place, or their chance to win a World Series, which is legitimate, and that’s
why Vegas has them at the wind total that they are, which, hey, it’s still
behind. It’s a few games under the Yankees. I hear that they spend more, but at
the same time, the Yankees lost one Soto and go look at the number of 30
something players the Yankees are depending on. You know, we’re talking about
all these young guys popping, I will still take my chances in most cases. And
again, I’m not talking about some fringe guy you bring up to the major leagues.
We’re talking about legit top 100 or top 25 prospects in baseball that a lot of
these guys have been. I’ll take my chances with some of those guys popping up
against 30 somethings trying to fight off Father Time another year? I mean, we
talked about this a lot with the Yankees, and at times it even hurt them last
year, right? I mean, with some guys you know that stand healthy and all of
that, so do the Yankees deserve to be ahead of the Orioles in terms of win,
loss and Al East predictions right now, sure. At the same time, I’ll remind
everyone that, as underwhelming as the Orioles were down the stretch last year,
how many games did they lose? Lose out to the division? A couple, right? I mean,
it’s not like the game.
 Nestor Aparicio 
32:38Yeah.
I’m trying to think, decide, just googled David Rubenstein in nursing homes to
make sure that when I talk about a guy that ran nursing homes and was penny
pinching dollars and stuff, I’m thinking to myself, let’s see. We can spend 120
million or 140 million and win 90 games, or we could spend 300 million to a 94
or 96 like the difference between spending all of that money, and how many more
wins you’re going to have when you spreadsheet it out and say, Are we good
enough, and can we build it as we go? And can we put ourselves in a position to
be very competitive in April, May and June, be a plus 500 team and and
hopefully stay healthy, hopefully gets him at bats for holiday. That makes him
a real bait, like, see all that, everything I just said as to why they’re going
to be better this year, which is, they have all of these. You know, players
that are ascending position, players that are ascending. You hope that? Could
you hope stay healthy? They appear to be ascending. They sure. I agree, right.
They have to pedigree to be the horse you look at in February and say that
horse can win the derby in May. And I would agree with all of this. So
therefore, the FANBOY in me says, load your ass up on the pitching and spend a
lot of money like you said you were going to do, because that’s what you know,
Mr. Angelos thing was always well, when they get here, we’ll we’ll spend, we’ll
buy, throw the arms by the bat, whatever the philosophy is, we’re good enough
to win. Let’s go all in. Doesn’t feel all inish yet in that way for this year.
But to your point, that’s baseball. Nobody ever goes all in because unless
you’re a dying owner of the San Diego Padres and just throwing money around, I
don’t, maybe you’re 74 year old millionaire, or you’re the max, right? Or the
Dodger, well, the Dodgers, dodgers, right? Whatever. These are billionaires. So
like, again, I’m going to play the world’s smallest, you know, violin for all
of them, in a general sense. But when it comes to being competitive in all of
this, I do see the validity of not giving all the money to Corbin burns for all
these years for his arm to fall off, or Santander being the opposite of all
these young players, which is, let’s say, a diminishing player. I’ve watched a
lot of baseball, he’s going to be a diminishing player
 Luke Jones 
34:54well and
again, hit a career high 44 home runs. Is he going to do that again? You know?
Is he so? We have Brady Anderson to hit 50, yeah, and look, I I love Anthony
Santander, the person you know. I think for me, I would almost venture to say,
you know, you might miss that presence a little bit more than you do, even
trying to make up for the offense and the aggregate, you know, expecting each
you know, four different young guys to be a little bit better than they were
last year, and trying to make up for that. And assuming Tyler O’Neill, who you
signed to this contract, you clearly like he’s got to stay healthy. You know,
he’s been a very productive player when he’s been healthy, but that’s been a
question so but now I’ve lost my train of thought. But I think when, when you
just look at this team as it’s presently constructed, I think even if you went
into the season now, I think you’d feel I think Mike Elias, let’s say maybe
fans wouldn’t feel this way, because again, I get it. It’s been an underwhelming
off season from an esthetic standpoint, from a standpoint of Santander and
burns walk out the door and what have
 Nestor Aparicio 
36:04you
well, the headline here is patched up the pitching, and we hope the young guys
are even better this year. Yeah, that’s kind of, that’s the story. Kind
 Luke Jones 
36:11of, sort
of is. But I will also throw out in the process of the moves that they’ve made.
And again, you can sit here and say whether you liked them or not. They’re 15.
They’re projected to be 15th in payroll. Now they’re at $155.8 million is there
projected
 Nestor Aparicio 
36:26121,
4155, okay, yeah, yeah. So I got a guy, I gotta say it right? Because I don’t
want to, you know, I don’t want to be stupid. I want to
 Luke Jones 
36:34be
accurate. And this is, and again, my big question is, are you spending that in
the wisest way you can, I think that’s certainly debatable. But I think where
we need to remember, we’re still, you know, a little under a month out until
spring training. And remember, at this time a year ago, Corbin Burns was not an
Oriole. They acquired Corbin burns. What? A few days after the the Ravens lost
to the chiefs in the title game. So we’re we’re still another week out from
there. I’m not saying the Dylan cease move is coming. I’m not saying a move for
Luis Castillo is coming. But that doesn’t mean that that move isn’t coming,
whether we’re talking about next week, or two weeks from now, or a month from
now, or to your point, and I think this might be the one that I would put the
most money on right now, if I were a betting man, then it could be in June or
July, right? I mean, I you let it take stock. But everything you just laid out
about payroll, you talked about payroll and how much I’m going to spend to win this
number of games compared to this number of games. This is why people who bring
up the expanded postseason field. They they bring it up in a skeptical way for
as much as everyone thinks about it at face value and saying, Oh, more teams
make the playoffs, more owners are going to try. I think it’s the exact
opposite. I think you have smart front offices, and the Orioles could be lumped
in there if you want to have at it. I don’t care if you whether you agree with
it or not, but there are absolutely own of general managers out there who would
say, so what’s the baseline for us? You know, if we want to get in as the third
wild card, hey, let’s aim higher the first wild card, because then you get to
play the wild card series at home, like the Orioles did, right? You know, the
first round by we’ve seen how that’s played out for a number of teams these,
these last few years, in terms of whether it’s actually, you know, actually
that much of an advantage, or the lions aren’t happy with it. Yeah. I mean, we
say to the NFL sometimes even, so all that being said, what’s our you know,
what’s our number? What do we need to how many wins do we need to hit to be the
first or the second wild card, understanding that if the stars align, we can be
better than that and win the division, and understanding, if we’re ravaged but
completely gutted by injuries, it probably won’t matter that we spend that much
more money those same injuries are going to sink us either way, right? If we if
we have that kind of a year where we lose that many pitchers or that many
middle of the order bats, we’re probably going to be screwed either way.
 Nestor Aparicio 
39:04That
many pitchers would be last year. They better never have another year.
 Luke Jones 
39:08I mean,
if they have another year like that, then, yeah, they’re going to be in
trouble, right? And most teams are. I mean, the Dodgers, for as much money as
they spend, still look at how their season played out last year. They still, I
mean, you talk about a rotation that was held together by duct tape at the end
of the year. But the Dodgers spend what they spend, and they have the talent
that they have, and they made it work, but, but in most cases, when you’re
looking at, you know, trying to run your models, your prediction, predictive
models, and you know what your players are going to look like, what your team
is going to be, you’re kind of trying to stack it up and say, you know, a lot
of these teams, especially these mid market teams, let alone talking about
small market teams in terms of payroll, they look at it and say, Hey, with a
third wild card, you know that that’s less money that I have to spend to to get
into the playoffs. And we know that the playoffs. Are kind of a crapshoot
anyway, so just get in. I’m not saying I like that. I wish more teams would try
for as much hand wringing as there is about the system being broken because of
what the Dodgers and the Mets do. I
 Nestor Aparicio 
40:13get in
and beat him in a two game series, three game series, right? But I also hold
 Luke Jones 
40:17the and
I might be generous with this number, the 10 owners in baseball, if not more,
that aren’t trying really at all in any given year, you know, but, but when you
have an expanded playoff field, to me, it’s the exact opposite of what Rob
Manfred sells it as you know, yeah, they get more TV money to split among the
30 clubs, but it also makes it easier to get into the playoffs. So why would I
try? Why would I spend quite as much when I’m not going to necessarily be
rewarded for that, anymore than just get in, just get in lower the floor, baby.
That’s that’s the game. I mean that. That’s what I really think it is. And and
do I think some of that is at work with Mike Elias, maybe to a degree to an
extent, he’s done the
 Nestor Aparicio 
41:01math on
it, yeah. So they have all their probabilities and statistics and analytics on
all that too. Right now, all that being said to
 Luke Jones 
41:10bring it
back full circle, because you said this at the beginning of our discussion, is
that methodology going to inspire people to buy into your brand and and buy 13
game packages and 26 game packages, and they
 Nestor Aparicio 
41:24send me
emails every day, just so you know, every day they’ve done this off season, has
it
 Luke Jones 
41:29done
enough to really, truly recruit people? Oh, that said, I also said at the
beginning of the off season to you, I think the Orioles need to do a better job
of selling the young stars that they do have on their roster right now, and
doing more than just the caravan right for example. So, but I I also think a
lot of this, you know, we’ve been over the territory of they botched their
season ticket holder handling back in August. I think that had a negative
impact on postseason ticket sales the way that the team played over the last
couple months of the season did not help the ridiculous scheduling process that
Major League Baseball has for those wild card round games that can be what at
one, four or eight o’clock, depending on what TV time slot they want to put
them in. I think it was a perfect, you know, not perfect, imperfect storm of
events that led to the 1000s of empty seats we saw for for those couple games,
and not to mention the 30 years of scar tissue that you have pointed out over
and over. I’m glad you’re
 Nestor Aparicio 
42:33there,
bringing all this up, because when I bring it up, it just, you know, it’s me
being me. I said, No, it’s fair. He’d be the only one pointing out facts about
like, you have a business and a reputation and a brand that’s damaged, and
remember, and if you don’t acknowledge that your brand is damaged, it, you
know, we all do. I mean, we all do. I mean, literally, anybody that’s been here
knows this, if they’re going to come in from Seattle and come in from Atlanta
and pretend that that there hasn’t been like, damage done here that needs to be
undone, not just with little Nestor and Dundalk, the loud mouth, Hispanic guy,
that it’s, you know, it it’s a lacrosse community, too. That’s another issue
that we’re going into lacrosse season, not for you or me, but for the rest of
the world. It’s lacrosse season for kids, parents, like all of that, I just
always think like they need to be much more top of mind than you and I now
spending 42 minutes of our valuable air time here talking about them, when we
could be shoveling dirt on Lamar and Mark Andrews and you know, like, how long
will they do that at the fan? I don’t know, B, A, L is their partner, both,
whatever. But like getting people okay, football’s over. Band Aid. Here’s a
hanky. That’s good. Baseball starts, let’s go. Let’s we have hope again. Let me
hope again, right? Yeah, like, and we really do have hope. We haven’t had that.
I’ve been over here 33 years. Three years, there have been maybe five years
where I could sit here on January something and say, they might be a playoff
team. They should be a playoff team this year. They should be,
 Luke Jones 
44:05I don’t
know. I mean, I, you know, I don’t know, not be. I look at the full landscape
of the American League and who, who do you say definitively is better than the
Orioles right now? I’d say the Yankees. Now, I don’t think that’s 12 games in
the division. Run away with it. The the division race is over in late July,
better, but
 Nestor Aparicio 
44:24I don’t
mean $200 million better, but 150 in terms of, but in terms of the rest of the
American League, you know? I mean, I think Houston, Houston’s taking a step
back. It very much feels like Right? I mean, when you look at, well, I have
John McClane on this week, and he his last text to me was that he’s pissed
about the Astros. Yeah, we’re interested in Santander to replace Tucker. And he
wrote here, I’m pissed. And you know, he’s I’m pissed. So when I got to get
John on, I’ll get that this week from Right, right. So, so
 Luke Jones 
44:55again,
my point with all that is, you know, they’re still in a. Good spot? Is it as
good as you’d like it to be based on the off season? No, and I’ll agree with
that, and I’ll do they need to as an organization, as a from a business
standpoint, need to work harder to recruit people, absolutely. But I also said
to you, going back two or three years ago, this was never going to be a light
switch, it’s a dial. So you need to have a good feel for how to turn that dial
right and how to pick it up in terms of recruiting and your ticket sales, your
promotion schedule. You know, I look at their promotion schedule, I haven’t,
you know, and I apologize because as I’m bringing this up, I should have done
this, but it feels like it’s a little more robust than it’s been in previous
years. I’ve said that to you, go look at the promotion and giveaway schedule
for even teams that you would consider to be higher market teams, they all have
giveaways. They do those things pretty regularly, even during the week. You’ll
see some of them because, you know, other than the Dodgers and a couple other
teams and you know the Phillies, you know, you’ll find that even some of these,
you know, some, some of these teams that spend way more than the Orioles on
payroll, they’re not drawing an amazing crowd on a Tuesday night in May, right?
I mean, there’s, there are games where there’s a look
 Nestor Aparicio 
46:14the
Orioles were the place to be here for your daddy’s time. Your mommy me, you
know, by the time you came along, you saw a little bit of in your childhood. It
hasn’t been the place to be in since the Ravens got here, really, since Cal
Roca, like hasn’t been the place to be, maybe even a playoff game in 2014 with
Machado. But it wasn’t the place to be last October, on two afternoons in
October with the bunting hanging and all the things that visions of sugar plums
that you and I have dreamed of, of having players like, you know, rushman and
holiday and headers, how bad you had to be to get those players moving the wall
back, moving the wall in, dealing with the creepy owner for 30 years, like,
yeah, you know, I’m past all of that. Let’s go. Don give me a call. Katie, give
me a call. Let’s sell some tickets. That’s some fun down at the ballpark, you
know,
 Luke Jones 
46:58but, but
that’s, you know, we’ve talked about this on the Raven side. And again, I don’t
want to get too much into too much into it as we’re as our conversations run as
long as it has already, but you get to the point where you have to recognize
you’ve got to work harder to recruit people. You’ve got to work harder to sell
tickets. You know, the Orioles are certainly in a way more advantageous
position to do that now than they were five years ago, when you were selling,
oh, hey, Adley rutschman will be here in three years, right? I mean, they’re in
a better spot than they were then, but a lot of damage was done over the years,
and there’s a lot more competing in just in general. You know, the NFL is the
only thing that’s, you know, I know you’re not an NBA guy. Go hear the
discourse about the NBA. And, you know, the quality of play, the how long the
regular season is, ratings, all these different things, right? I mean, every
sport deals with this, other than the NFL. The NFL is the one thing that’s kind
of just, you know, and they can do anything. Yeah, exactly. They can do
whatever they want. I mean, look at the commanders this
 Nestor Aparicio 
47:59week. So
how quickly that’s deodorized all of it, right? I mean, it’s just been
deodorized by winning by this kid. And the Orioles have this new owner, Money
Bags GM, that knows what he’s doing clearly enough to be competitive, enough
for me to give him the benefit of the doubt whether he speaks to me or not. And
you know, and a track record of two years of of navigating really tough stuff.
I mean, radish wells means, like all the injuries, Batista navigating that, you
know, ravens couldn’t navigate that when Humphrey and Jackson, these guys got
hurt, Stanley, all these guys got hurt a couple years ago. They didn’t navigate
it. They lost the Bengals with Snoop bond Lee, running around.
 Luke Jones 
48:41But if
they’ve, if they can learn a lesson from the Ravens at this point in time now,
and the Ravens deal with this too, we see what the ticket market is for regular
season games for the ravens, right? It’s not what it was 1520, years ago,
that’s for sure, right? I mean, not even getting into that, it’s just, it’s the
truth.
 Nestor Aparicio 
48:57Go,
Look, I know two people they’ve thrown out of their seats, so I can’t point
that out, but
 Luke Jones 
49:00I think
when you look at that, what’s the key? And this is where we kind of come full
circle and say, we’ll see, and we’ll see what happens between now and the trade
deadline. Let’s say they’ve got to win in October. I mean, that’s they’re at a
point now, much like the Ravens now, where it’s just like, wake me up in
January, right? And I don’t, and I say that facetiously, it’s still fun. They
win a lot. Lamar wins, MVP. The guys make Pro Bowls. They’ve been great in the
regular season. But legacy wise, what you want to define you It’s January, and
the Orioles now, having been to the playoffs two years in a row and having not
won a game, get just getting there is not going to be good enough. So that’s
where they do face a little bit of a challenge from a recruiting standpoint,
from a growing your brand standpoint, because they do need to get there and win
some games. Doesn’t mean they need to win the World Series this year, but if
they get to the playoffs again and they’re bounced in the wild card round, or
if they’re swept in the Division Series. You know, after they win the wild card
round, no bueno, right? I mean, it’s
 Nestor Aparicio 
50:03nobody.
Nothing tastes good here. It didn’t taste good in Buffalo. So if Andrew’s
caught the ball and Tucker kicks a game winner, it just it tastes bad when you
don’t win. And we’re feeling that this week, and that’s why I’m trying to
breathe air into the baseball side and say, All right, the next, our next best
hope is, used to be the draft for the Ravens. Now it’s well, baseball teams,
you know, on schedule to be a playoff team. Let’s hold them to that. Let’s hold
them to that, right? Yeah,
 Luke Jones 
50:33so we’ll
see what happens between now and the start of the season. And again, to your
point, and I, if you’re going to ask me, the most likely outcome. I do think
it’s something that might wait and drag into the regular season, because,
again, they need to take the next step in October, this rotation as it’s
presently constructed, that’s where I do have some skepticism about, about
where they’re, where they whether they have enough upside to do that, so see
how it plays out. But hey, Vegas still likes this team as it pertains to
looking at it in the context of 30 teams in Major League Baseball. So let’s
keep that in mind and and not lose sight of the optimism about the young talent
that they already have that’s established and more on the way to see what it
can become here in 2025
 Nestor Aparicio 
51:19I’m
doing a lot of football around here this week. Got Greg cosell on. I got John
McLean, Hall of Fame voter in football, but a crazed Houston Astro and baseball
historian and fan as well. So I’m sure he and I will be talking about, you
know, Jose Cruz and Nolan Ryan and JR Richard, amongst other people. And I’ll
wear my pastor Renee jersey, probably where my Derrick Henry Jersey did to get
it, to get his juices flowing a little bit. So we’ll be doing a lot of
football, but also some baseball. Barry Bloom’s been hitting me up. I want to
hit him up because he’s out in the desert in Arizona with Corbin burns, amongst
others. And it is baseball season here, I guess. I mean, it’s not football
season anymore, unless you’re watching on Sunday night, unless you’re a
commander’s fan or a Eagles fan. Oh, what a weekend. Maybe I should make dinner
plans. No wonder I’m talking about baseball. I’m Nestor. We are wnst. Am 1570
tassel, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore positive.

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