Watching the emergence of the Toronto Blue Jays and a World Series appearance last season was part of the offseason inspiration of the Baltimore Orioles to improve this year. As Luke Jones and Nestor discuss this four-game set with Toronto and the early struggles of the Birds, it’s getting harder to find any consistency in what we’re seeing at Camden Yards so far.

Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ recent performance, highlighting their struggles despite good pitching. They noted the Orioles’ 0-3 record in the first inning and 0-5 with runners in scoring position. Chris Bassitt pitched well but faced a disappointing loss. The team aims for a 7-3 record in their 10-game homestand to stay competitive in the AL wild card race. They evaluated the AL East, suggesting the Yankees as the best team, with the Rays and Red Sox also mentioned. The conversation also touched on the Orioles’ prospects, including Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, and the challenges faced by Trevor Rogers.

• [ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Run the Maryland Crab Cake Tour starting at Sorrento of Arbutus on June 10 and coordinate events through June into July (announce dates and manage logistics).
• [ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Bring Maryland Treasures scratch-offs to give away at upcoming events (prepare and distribute the scratch-offs at tour stops).
• [ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Get Zach back on the show (arrange and schedule Zach’s return appearance).
• [ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Put dates together for a Green Mount Station event later in the month (propose specific dates and communicate schedule).
• [ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Reach back out to all sponsors (including Coco’s, Pizza Johns, Costa’s State Fair, GBMC, Farnham and Dermer) to coordinate upcoming promotions and event support.
• [ ] Attend the Ravens mandatory mini-camps in a week and a half as the ballpark reporter and cover the events.

Maryland Crab Cake Tour and Upcoming Events

• Nestor Aparicio introduces the Maryland Crab Cake Tour, starting with Sorrento of Arbutus on June 10th.
• The tour will continue throughout June and into July, coinciding with the pennant race.
• Nestor mentions mandatory mini camps starting in a week and a half, with Luke Jones covering the event.
• Nestor highlights the importance of good pitching and the challenges faced by the Orioles when the bats go cold.

Recent Game Analysis: Orioles vs. Blue Jays

• Luke Jones discusses the first inning of the game, where the Orioles had opportunities but failed to capitalize.
• Pete Alonso’s back pick in the eighth inning is highlighted as a significant mistake.
• Luke notes the Orioles’ struggles with runners in scoring position, going 0-3 in the first inning and 0-5 for the game.
• The discussion includes the importance of winning winnable games and maintaining momentum.

Orioles’ Season-Long Homestand and Wild Card Race

• Luke Jones sets a goal of 7-3 for the 10-game homestand to stay competitive in the AL wild card race.
• The Orioles need to win at least two of the next three games to meet this goal.
• Luke praises Chris Bassett’s performance and his extra motivation against his former team, the Blue Jays.
• The conversation touches on the importance of taking advantage of starting pitching and avoiding losing winnable games.

Evaluating the AL East Division

• Nestor and Luke discuss the current state of the AL East, questioning if the Orioles are the worst team in the division.
• Luke believes the Yankees are still the best team, despite the Rays’ recent success.
• The conversation includes a comparison of the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox, noting their respective strengths and weaknesses.
• Luke highlights the challenges faced by the Blue Jays, including injuries and inconsistent offense.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

• Nestor and Luke reflect on the Orioles’ recent history, including the trade deadline deals in 2022.
• The discussion includes the impact of trading players like Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez.
• Luke emphasizes the importance of developing young players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson.
• The conversation touches on the challenges of managing expectations and the volatility of baseball prospects.

Trevor Rogers’ Performance and Team Strategy

• Nestor and Luke discuss Trevor Rogers’ struggles and the need for him to improve his performance.
• Luke explains the importance of peripheral numbers and predictive metrics in evaluating pitchers.
• The conversation includes the possibility of moving Rogers to the bullpen if he continues to struggle.
• Luke highlights the need for the Orioles to find consistency in their starting rotation.

Impact of Prospects and Trade Deadline Considerations

• Nestor and Luke discuss the impact of top draft picks like Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser.
• Luke notes the challenges faced by high draft picks and the importance of patience in their development.
• The conversation includes a comparison of the Orioles’ prospects with other teams’ prospects.
• Luke emphasizes the need for the Orioles to balance their farm system with immediate team needs.

Orioles’ Offensive and Defensive Performance

• Nestor and Luke discuss the Orioles’ offensive performance, including the struggles of players like Taylor Ward.
• Luke highlights the importance of slugging and the need for players to hit home runs.
• The conversation includes a discussion of the Orioles’ base running mistakes and the need for better execution.
• Luke emphasizes the importance of winning series and maintaining consistency in performance.

Orioles’ Upcoming Games and Future Plans

• Nestor and Luke preview the upcoming games against the Blue Jays and the importance of winning series.
• The conversation includes a discussion of the Orioles’ mandatory mini camps and the Maryland Crab Cake Tour.
• Luke emphasizes the need for the Orioles to continue playing better baseball and winning games.
• The discussion concludes with a focus on the importance of maintaining momentum and staying competitive in the AL East.

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

Orioles, Blue Jays, AL East, Chris Bassett, Trevor Rogers, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Bradish, Pedro Severino, Taylor Ward, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, mandatory mini camps, Maryland Crab Cake Tour.

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SPEAKERS

Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio

Nestor Aparicio  00:01

Welcome home. We are W N S T A M 1570 Towson Baltimore. We are Baltimore, positive, positively trying to enjoy this better weather that we have together. And we’re gonna be doing the Maryland Crab Cake Tour, beginning the week after next, and take a little respite next week. We’ll be here, though. So, brought to you by the Maryland Lottery. I will have Maryland Treasures scratch-offs to give away. Also, our friends at GBMC, keeping me alive and well, and our friends at Farnham and Dermer, keeping my HVAC alive and well, as well as my pipes and my plumbing. You can reach him at 410 36777 We’ll get Zach back here. We begin our crab cake tour at Sorrento of Arbutus on the 10th of June, and we’re revving things up throughout the month of June and into July, hoping that the pennant race will remain. We have mandatory mini camps coming up in a week and a half, and Luke Jones will be there. He is our ballpark reporter. He’s been at Oriel Park most of the week here, kind of extended home stand. Look, they’re not going to win every night, right? But you’d like to hope that they would get pitching every night, but when the bats go cold, even when they get a good start out of a maligned veteran starter, it’s not enough. I mean, one run, how many games really going to win?

Luke Jones  01:14

Yeah, not many. And I think really, for me, you go back to the first inning, and obviously later in the game, Pete Alonso gets back picked in the eighth inning. I mean, that’s not great. To his credit, he was at his locker, waiting for everyone, all that. But for me, I really go back to the first inning, right? I mean, Ward leads off with the single, the Toronto defense boots a ball, allows a second and third situation after, you know, umpire made a bizarre, not just bad, just plain wrong call at third base, but it’s overturned. You’ve got second and third, nobody out, Ruchman, Alonzo, Kobe Mayo coming up, and you’re thinking, hey, it’s like the night before when they hung a five spot on the board in the first inning, this is your chance to jump out, and Ruchman hits a line drive, you know, to the shortstop. Nothing can’t fault them there. I mean, really, but Alonso strike out, Mayo strike out, and they don’t get anything right there. And at the time, you’re thinking, oh man, you’d like to get an early lead, especially for Chris Bassett, who, as you mentioned, they’ve been waiting to get more starts like this from him, but no, he pitched really well, but I mean, really, they were only, I think, they were oh for five with runners in scoring position for the for the game, and it was zero for three right there. I mean, so it speaks to the fact that they had a little bit of traffic on the bases, it’s not as though they had no opportunities at from that point, but that was their best opportunity, and it’s disappointing, I mean, it’s to your point, they’re not going to continue to just win every single night, even if they start playing better from here on out, but when you are trying to get back to 500 when you are trying to maintain the momentum of a three game winning streak, you give up two runs, and one of those runs was Nunez walking in a run in the eighth inning, you know, that’s disappointing. I mean, that that’s the kind of game for this team, the way they’ve been struggling to get starting pitching until very recently. You want to take advantage of those? There’s no

Nestor Aparicio  03:14

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winnable,

Luke Jones  03:15

yeah, of course, of course. And no team likes to lose a winnable game, and it’s baseball, I mean, two to one, right? I mean, Toronto just as easily could have lost that game, right? I mean, it could have been it’s the razor’s edge as far as how thin your margin for error is there, but you know you’re trying to get back to 500 and then you fall back to five under, so not the end of the world if you get back on the horse and you take care of business the rest of the weekend, as I said to you at the start of this homestand, and you mentioned it, it’s a season long, 10 game homestand. I’ve said it from the beginning of it, seven and three was was my mark, where I looked at this and say, okay, you do that, you come out of the month of May, you’re four games under 500 it’s not ideal, but you very much have a pulse, and you’re fine, especially in this American League wild card race, where you need to keep playing better baseball, but you’re in good position, so they’re still on track to be able to do that, if they can win at least two of the next three to get to seven and three for this homestand, but again, a winnable game on Thursday night, and Basset pitched well. I said to you, he’s slowly but surely trending in the right direction. It really, I mean, if you look at his numbers since about the third week of April, you can live with what he’s given, given you. I mean, it hasn’t been great, but he’s given them a chance to win more often than not, after his first couple starts, where, if you remember, it was kind of giving you Charlie Morton vibes, so he’s been better. He was really good, though, on Thursday night, and I think he had a little extra juice going up against his old team after everything the Blue Jays accomplished last year, so he pitched well, so that. A positive that that was good to see, but yeah, disappointing to not come away with a win there, and like I said, I mean, you know, Pete Alonso kind of in the middle of it, right? I mean, he had a golden opportunity in the first inning, and you know, he gets back picked in the eighth inning, I mean, that’s just bad baseball, and he was the first one to say it, I mean, like I said, guy who played in New York, he knows the drill, you know, when you’re front and center of messing up, and look, I didn’t have a high degree of confidence that Weston Wilson was going to come through there, but you’d like to give them a shot anyway, especially when you had someone in scoring position, so bad play there, and those were the kind of things that first inning, and then that fundamentally, you know, of a fundamental failure, quite frankly, those are the kind of things that got the Orioles to the point where they were eight games below 500 So to see those things pop up after they’ve been playing so well, it’s, it’s disappointing, but it is baseball, and, like I said, they need to get back on track, and you know, Trevor Rogers, what, what do you got right? The rest of this rotation is pitching better? It’s your turn if you want to continue to be in this rotation, so they need that. But yeah, a disappointing way to start the series, and you know, Toronto’s kind of in the same position as the Orioles. I mean, they’ve, they’ve been under 500 since I think the first few days of April, and now they’re in a position where they’re just a game below 500 and trying to write their own season.

Nestor Aparicio  06:23

What also coming off sort of a miraculous year last year as well. I was going to say evaluate the division a little bit. Now we’ve seen all of it at Toronto. Here, I’m not sure that the Orioles aren’t the worst team in the division. We had sort of urinated upon Tampa before the season began, Boston, did they do enough, and they got off to the Rocky Star, and whatever, we’re better than them, got to be better than them. Who are the Orioles really better than in division? I guess that’s my, you know, that’s, yeah, if not this team, right.

Luke Jones  06:54

Well, I mean, I

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Nestor Aparicio  06:55

think

Nestor Aparicio  06:55

he was best in the whole world last year for a little while, right?

Luke Jones  06:57

Right? Right. I mean, and remember, Toronto was kind of the model we talked about in the off season, in terms of Toronto was in last place in 24 and then suddenly they’re in the World Series in 25 so it’s a reminder that when you’re talking about success and development in all those various, you know, buzzwords that you talk about in terms of teams that are good or teams that are young or teams that are ascending, it’s not quite in fact most of the time it’s not linear, right? You’re going to see ups and downs, but I think when you look at this division, look, we’ve talked so much about the Yankees and the Rays, I think I still think probably when you’re looking at these teams across the board, I’d still be inclined to kind of revert to the Yankees as the best team in the division, I mean, the Rays still have a better record, but I think we saw firsthand in this series against the Orioles, which give the Orioles credit, I mean, they, they swept them, but you saw that Tampa Bay, at least, has that flaw of, they’re not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, now they still pitch well, but that’s something that you kind of point to, whereas the Yankees, I mean, they have a plus 89 run differential, Tampa’s at plus 24 that’s usually something you can look at as a predictive number as far as how a team’s going to be over time, so I probably still default to the Yankees, but the Rays are really good. I’m not going to dismiss them, but I think the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox, I mean Toronto, like you look at them, their offense hasn’t been great. It’s not horrendous, but I mean, even guys that they count on to have great years aren’t necessarily having this amazing year. I mean, you know, even Vlad Vlad Guerrero Jr. I mean, he’s slugging 371 you know. Yeah, he has a 761 OPS. I mean, that’s it’s not what you’re looking at. You’re not, that’s not what you’re looking for from your big bopper. I mean, it’s kind of what I’ve, how I’ve talked about Pete Alonso to this point in the season. So, they’ve had a lot of injuries on the pitching front, so that, that’s been a big part of it. I mean, they are just, you know, have just gotten your Savage back, who obviously was such a big star in October as a young guy coming on to the scene, but, but you know, I, Toronto, again, like I said, they’ve been very Oriole-like, you know, I mean, like, they, they haven’t been great, they’ve played better of late, and that’s why they’re, they’re in third place and occupying the final wild card spot right now, which, for whatever that’s worth, in late May, which is not much, so, and then Boston, I think, I mean, for me, like, their offense, you know, okay, they, they can pitch, but their offense, I mean, you look at the five teams in the division, I mean, they’re, they’re in last place scoring runs, and it’s by a pretty substantial margin, so you know, I mean, you look at their pitching and you say, okay, but you look at that offense and you think about everything they’ve done. Or they haven’t done the last couple years, I mean, trading off Devers, what you know, whether that was the right move or not, you want to replace a bat like that, and you know they, they had Alex Bregman, and you thought, okay, well, they’re going to keep Bregman, well, they let Bregman go, well, they’re still trying to

Nestor Aparicio  10:14

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figure out Mookie Betts, yeah, well, sure, sure, trying to figure out Machado, kind of, yeah, well,

Luke Jones  10:19

yeah, I mean, and obviously with the Orioles, I mean, you know, you go back and it was eight years ago, you kind of, the writing had been on the wall for a while that Machado wasn’t going to be around long term, whether, whether they tried, whether they were going to be able, any of that, I mean, we know, but for Boston, yeah, I mean, you kind of look at them winning the World Series in 2018 and you kind of wonder, like, what have they been since then, right? I mean, it’s just odd. I mean, in terms of payroll, and you know, not spending money like

Nestor Aparicio  10:50

they feel like

Luke Jones  10:51

we’ll be representative, but we’re not literally going to compete. Yeah, it does feel, you know, just feel like if we win, we win, but we’re not going to, you know, don’t expect us to go all in. Yeah, it does feel like that. And obviously, you know, they fire Cora earlier in the year. I mean, has that done anything to spark them? It’d be hard to say that, that it has. You know, in contrast to say the Phillies with Don Mattingly taking over for Rob Thompson. So, you know, I look, the Orioles and the Red Sox, I think, are the two teams that you kind of look at at the bottom right now, but really it’s the bottom three, right? I mean, the Razor in first place, the Yankees, I think, are the team that profile the best across the board, but the other three are, or severely,

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Nestor Aparicio  11:35

last

Nestor Aparicio  11:36

year’s not this year, just because they were good last year doesn’t mean that’s where they are this year, but it is interesting to measure them right now as we measure the Orioles at the third pole, or whatever this would be, and say, you know, last year was that outlier, and it’s not linear, and they’re not going to be better this year because they were good last year, that, and maybe my case in point is this, the year you get it together, the year you win 101 games, and take advantage, Arlington, you better win,

Luke Jones  12:04

take advantage. You don’t know, yeah,

Nestor Aparicio  12:06

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yeah.

Luke Jones  12:07

Well, we talked about this a lot a week ago, when obviously we had a much different tone than what we’ve, than what it’s been over the last week, with them playing much better baseball, but I think even go back to the trade deadline of 22 right? Where they remember they went nuts in July. It’s not as though they were on at this time back in 2022 We were taught, you know, Ruchman had arrived at this point, but they weren’t playing good baseball at this point in the season then. But they went nuts in the month of July. They had, I think, they had what, a 10 game winning streak, I think it was, and suddenly you’re looking at them mathematically. Hey, they’re right in the mix for the wild card, yet Elias still traded off Mancini, still traded off Jorge Lopez. At the time, the thought was we’re not going to do anything hasty here in terms of understanding the window, opening all that, and to be clear, in hindsight, I still think it was something you could defend, right? You could rationalize it, however, in the moment you thought, okay, well, they’re going to have a wide open competitive window in 20 320-425-2627, right? Go, go down the list, right. We thought heck fans are hoping to be a decade, right, but now four years later, you look at how the last two years have played out, and you say, wow, in 2022 by no means was I thinking that team was going to go to the World Series, but the mojo that they did have, what’s not to say they couldn’t have done what the Arizona Diamondbacks literally did the following year, and get you know, just sneak in and you get hot in October, and suddenly you’re playing in the World Series against the Rangers, of course, the team that knocked the Orioles off in the division round that year. So I do think it’s, it is one of those things with the three wild cards. It just makes things different in that way. I mean, we talked about it the other day. You asked me about, you know, could the Orioles go out and get a third baseman? I said, I mean, sure they could, but how many teams at this point where we’re just starting to turn the calendar to June, how many teams definitively, definitively consider themselves out of it, definitively say we’re definitely going to sell at the trade deadline, and there aren’t many when you have this system, so it’s good in the way that you have hope, I suppose, but hope can also be a dangerous thing when it’s unrealistic hope, but at the same time, and this has been one of the skeptical arguments with having three wild cards, is it? It rewards mediocrity, right? It puts you in a position where, whether you’re, whether you’re spending a whole lot of money or not, whether you have a great team or not, it kind of puts you in this position. Question that you know to yes, you can hang around in the race, but it also puts you in a position that how much value is there really to winning the division, right? I mean, so it’s good in some ways, and I think it could be detrimental in other ways, but it’s

Nestor Aparicio  15:15

fool’s gold if you get swept in three years later you’re still trying to find yourself and make sure of the sweet spot of the career of Ruchman and

Luke Jones  15:26

sure

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Nestor Aparicio  15:26

and Henderson and Kauser throw him throw those guys in from those drafts of four to seven years ago and say are they in the meat of their the way the Cubs did it the way the Phillies have done it the way the way the Blue Jays were in the midst of doing it last year with Vladimir Guerrero, and you know, so we just keep waiting for the Orioles to be in the middle of this blossoming period, and that’s why this isn’t going well. That’s why Fire Michaelias

Luke Jones  15:58

Traction last week, that’s why five games under 500 isn’t good enough this morning. No, it’s not. I’m not going to sit here. I mean, just because they played better over the last week, I mean, I’ve been the voice that’s saying it’s not over yet, because it’s not. But at the same time, I’m going to sit here and say that this was the plan, not going to sit here and say that selling selling fans on the idea that you’re hanging around, and to be the third wild card or the second wild card, because the rest of the American League is also really mediocre. That’s not what the selling point was back in 19 and 20 and 21 when they were in last place and losing 100 plus games in those seasons. So, I mean, it’s, yeah, it’s frustrating, and you know, even going back to 22 for just a moment, it’s not as though I mean, Trey Mancini was, was on his last legs as a really productive player at that already, at that point, right? I mean, he hasn’t been anything close to that in terms of being a productive player, Jorge Lopez, that was his best, right, made an all-star team, he’s traded, and I mean, he’s out out of baseball, or at least out of the, I believe, out of the majors, at least right now. I don’t know if he’s hanging around somewhere, but the point is it’s not even that necessarily that those deals ended up being catastrophic or anything like that, like that you had seller’s remorse, but at the same time, you know, what did they acquire? Okay, they got Yenier Cano for Jorge Lopez, and yes, he was an important part of a couple playoff teams for Mancini. I mean, what did they really get? So again, it kind of goes back to hugging your prospects and loving your farm system rankings and all that, and that’s well and good, and don’t get me wrong, you’d rather have that than not, but at the same time, if you just hold on to all that, which is basically what the Orioles did, it’s not always going to turn out the way you hoped it was going to be. I mean, look at those 2020 2122 drafts right now, you know, not saying that there’s nothing to show for it, but it’s certainly not an embarrassment of riches, when you look at,

Nestor Aparicio  18:03

you know, I mean, from the last place team and an awful team, to think you come out of it with a couple of key players. Sure, those players have to be key players, and that’s what we go back to every night, when, when they’re not performing, because

Luke Jones  18:14

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I mean, think about it, how much, and I’m not saying this to at all be, you know, that it’s personal with the kid, because he’s been through a lot, but the Orioles on Thursday they reinstated Heston Kerstad from the 60 day IO and optioned him to trip away. It barely made a ripple. This was the second overall pick in the 2020 draft, right? And it barely made a ripple. Now that’s not surprising. I don’t think anyone expected him to be back on the 26 man roster based on how his rehab assignment has gone there, which he hasn’t been, hasn’t been like horrendously awful, but hasn’t hit for power. I think he has one home run.

Nestor Aparicio  18:54

It is

Nestor Aparicio  18:54

not never felt like it was a big league thing, like when he was up and even doing well. It never felt like this was the turning of the corner, and the way that maybe Ruchman feels that way this year, or yeah, where we’re waiting on holiday, and it is – it’s unfortunate, but it’s the way it is when you’re the top five guy in the draft, and a team stinks and loses 100 games in order for the rights to acquire you, and only you, really, it’s all you really get out of it. I mean, the 33rd pick, or what? I mean, yeah, I mean, but

Luke Jones  19:24

you can, you can make a little bit of an argument with that, but yeah, what once you get beyond those first couple picks, it’s a very diminishing return, a lot of

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Nestor Aparicio  19:32

losing in order to get a Heston cursed out or Colton Cows, yeah, that

Luke Jones  19:36

Ruchman, and let’s face it, I mean, it’s you know, Ruchman and Gunner Henderson in the 2019 draft, but again, that, that was the previous regime that they were so bad, so, so, yeah, it is disappointing, and you know, just to finish my thought on cursed, because again, I don’t want to make it seem like taking, I know he’s been through a lot, I mean, myocarditis, you know, his first summer as an Oriole, you know, hamstring injury. He got the one time that he started showing some promise. Remember, he got beaned by the Yankees. I mean, so he’s just.. he’s had a lot go wrong for him, but at the same time, it’s not as though he’s the only prospect they’ve had that struggled and hasn’t lived up to potential. I mean, Colton Kauser has been a great story over the last week, right, with two walk-offs, and, and I’ve tried to advocate, advocate for him playing more just because of his defense, but look, he’s profiled at best as a fourth out, a fourth outfielder, defensive-minded guy that run into some home runs now and then, but really, really inconsistent, right, that’s not what you’re looking at for the fifth overall pick in the draft. That said, I sent it to you the other day. Go look at Royce Lewis for the Twins, you know, former first overall pick. Look at Henry Davis, the first overall pick catcher for the Pirates. You know, Bruce Lewis just got sent down not long ago. Henry Davis, last I checked, is still well, well below the Mendoza line, right? I mean, it’s so we know it’s, I mean, if we see bust in the NFL and the NBA when we’re talking about a one one or the second overall pick or a top five pick, but in baseball, even more so. I mean, it’s talking about high school kids in some cases where they’ve got three years, a minimum of two or three years of development before they even sniff the majors, even college players, a minimum of about a year, you know, but usually two, two and a half, maybe three. So I mean, that’s just there’s a lot of volatility at work there, so that’s why you kind of look at it in hindsight, and look, I made this point in the midst of the rebuild. A lot of the skeptics would kind of point to those very same statements, where there are no sure things, especially in the baseball draft. So, this idea that you’re going to tank and lose on purpose for a few years in a row, and look, there’s, there are, there’s nuance to the discussion. I mean, I don’t think there was any sound argument in 2019 for example, for Michaelias to come in year one, even if John Angelos had a bunch of money that he wanted to spend to sit there and try to spend a bunch of money on free agents at that moment in time when they had no base of like core players or anything like that, so there’s nuance to it, but there’s also saying you’re not going to push your chips all in, compared to you’re not even going to step to the table, right? You’re not even going to sit down at the table and play a hand, and that’s where the Orioles were at the major league level for like three years, so you know to bring it back to the, to the present, you know, you kind of look at what they have. It’s they’ve got some good young players, they’ve got some players that I still have hope for. I mean, Bisayo has been pretty terrific overall. I mean, even even Besayos’ catching has been better than I thought it was going to be. I mean, he and Ruchman, I mean, name another team that has a better one two punch at the catcher position than Ruchman and Bisayo, so that’s a nice thing. At the same time, you look at the reality and say, well, Hadley Rachman’s going to be a free agent at the end of next year, so even that, like the time to be great, it should be right now, and they’re not that, so that’s where you do look at this thing, and you know, even if they’re playing better, you know, Thursday notwithstanding, you still look at this thing and just say, man, this is this is not how it was supposed to go whatsoever. I mean,

Nestor Aparicio  23:31

why keep wondering, what are we waiting for? Yeah, that’s fair, but I think one of the things we’re waiting for, while we’re on this, by the way, Luke Jones is here, it’s Baltimore, Luke, you can join our WNSD tech service if you want breaking news. It’s all brought to you by Cole Roofing and Gordian Energy. As we get into a beautiful weekend here in the Blue Jays, in Rogers, right? Like, once, like you’re one one, you’re one five, whatever the expectations we talked about, Kirsch, that only reason we’re talking about Heston Kerstad is because of the way they drafted him many, many years ago, because it has never, to your point, my point, never looked like that. Mayo, right now, I don’t know if it’s ever going to look like that or not, but once these guys get elevated past, you were picked first, you were picked second, you were picked fifth, whatever it was, then it’s, oh, we have high hopes for you suddenly, and Pasaya would be one of those guys, and I think the deal for Stowers and Norby, the thought that this is where Trevor Rogers is going to go back and revert to being that all-star than he was for two months last year, and now we’re sitting here with a six and a half ERA, and saying, well, which one are you, because once once you think you can be a left-handed, let’s not say a number one starter, but you start opening day, so you are the number one starter, whether we call you that or not, that you get elevated to that in the here and now. It’s almost worse than being a one one. Being a one one is about the body of work. Adley Ruch will have that follow him, you. Catcher from the Pirates, all of those. Brian Taylor still has that following him, you know, being a one one. So does BJ Suhrhof, and along David Clyde, that’s different than it’s spring training, you’re starting opening day, and we’re expecting you to be really good. That’s a higher bar, even than I’m still waiting on BJ Surhoff to catch or something, you know what I mean, like stuff that was so yesterday’s news. Today’s news is they began the season with this guy, he was the number one starter, and that counts for more than being the number one draft pick, at least tonight when he starts.

Luke Jones  25:37

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Yeah, I mean, of course it does. I mean, you’re talking about someone that tangibly did it in the major leagues, you know, we’re not talking about being one one or being the number one overall prospect in baseball, or the number 18,

Nestor Aparicio  25:49

how they hit the ball against Oklahoma State at the World Series 2019 right?

Luke Jones  25:54

Yeah, I mean, what, you know, I mean, it’d be like talking about it’d be like talking about Lamar Jackson’s numbers at Louisville eight eight years into his, you know, nine years into his NFL career, like, who cares? I mean, when you’ve done it at the major league level, so with Rogers, I mean, and I mean, it’s just, it’s, it’s tough, it’s, it’s not tough to figure, but it’s tough to figure, and what I mean by that is, you heard me say this a lot in the off season, I think anyone who watched him, as good of a story as it was, he was not showing this Kyle Brattish kind of dominance, and what I mean by that was, you know, it’s not as though he was averaging 1213, strikeouts per nine innings last year, I mean, well, you

Nestor Aparicio  26:37

call it the peripherals, you know, the peripheral numbers,

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Luke Jones  26:41

I mean, all of that suggests the

Nestor Aparicio  26:42

Yankees in the Raids, and saying the Yankees have scored 90 more runs than they’ve given up. Yeah, the Rays have scored 24 That’s predictor, that’s

Luke Jones  26:49

right. Where you kind of look at it and say, who’s more likely to continue winning at this clip? Give me the team with the run differential. Now, that’s not the end all be all. There are pitchers, there are hitters who outperform their predictive numbers all the time, right? But in Rogers’ case, he had a 181 ERA, but if you looked at it, he averaged 8.5 strikeouts per nine, so just under a strikeout per inning. I had a good walk rate, home run rate was really low, 0.5 home runs per nine innings. Pitching at camp, half your games at Camden Yards, even though Camden Yards is not the hitter’s haven that it once was, I mean, you know, it definitely doesn’t play like it used to, especially when you’re talking, you know, early in the season, which I think kind of makes this even more confounding for Rodgers, but you know, the 1181 ERA, no one thought he was going to duplicate that, but he’s still, and I’ll give you one number, it’s called FIP, Fielding independent pitching, basically, it’s it takes, it tries to eliminate the fielder’s impact on your pitching, so basically it takes into account strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed, hit by pitch, and it’s a number that’s made to replicate ERA, and it’s more so it ends up being predictive about how you’re going to pitch moving forward again. Nothing’s perfect. None of these stats are gospel, and that’s one thing. When I talk to people about analytics, I want to just explain it’s information, you know, it’s something that that should help inform your decision making. But in the case of Rogers last year, even with me, guys like me saying, ‘Oh, this isn’t sustainable, this isn’t sustainable, his fifth was still 2.82 so you’re still talking about someone who had a fifth that was sub three. So the point is I still expected him to be much better than he’s been, and I would say his, he had really good fortune last year, in addition to just pitching well this year, he hasn’t pitched well, but he’s also had really bad fortune, where that same number that I mentioned, his fifth is four and a half right now. Now, four and a half’s not very good, but if he had a four and a half ERA right now, you and I wouldn’t have the same tone to our conversation about Trevor Rogers as he does with an ERA that’s just a tick or two under seven

Nestor Aparicio  29:01

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to me, he’s a two and a third, six run effort away from, we need to send him to Norfolk, can figure him out.

Nestor Aparicio  29:08

Well,

Luke Jones  29:08

problem is, I mean, I don’t, you can’t option him without his permission right now. I think the more likely option would be

Nestor Aparicio  29:15

bullpen,

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Luke Jones  29:16

you send them to the bullpen, so I don’t know if we’re one start away from that, but that’s absolutely because how could it not be when you’re seeing what

Nestor Aparicio  29:25

everybody lying behind him, either. You know what I mean, pushing him, saying if you’re not going to be better, we’re going to pull you out of the rotation, but

Luke Jones  29:31

I think you do. I mean, like Trey Gibson has has pitched well enough that if you’re going to continue to get a Trevor Rogers that’s not showing signs of improvement, that’s a different animal. You can’t just look. He was a great story last year, but this isn’t someone who has a five year track record, right? This isn’t, you know, this isn’t Mike Messina in his age 28 season, if he were struggling, but

Nestor Aparicio  29:54

8

he’s sick to get nearly the kind of rope, right? Right?

Luke Jones  29:57

Nor should he, nor should he, I mean, especially. Especially when you consider he’s in a contract here, I mean, like this isn’t,

Nestor Aparicio  30:03

if not now, when,

Luke Jones  30:04

right? This isn’t a case where you’ve got a long-term investment like Boz. Yeah, they’re going to be patient with Boz. They have no other choice but to be patient with Boz, but Rogers is not the case there. So you have to hope, because look, the reality is Kyle Bradish didn’t look very good in April. He’s looked very good over his last four or five starts. He’s looked excellent over his last four or five starts. Boz has looked much better over his last three starts. We saw Bassett look better and has been better, still not where you want them to be, but better. Brandon Young, he’s another guy. You look at some of the peripheral numbers, I’m not expecting him to continue to pitch to a three and a half era by any means, but you’ll gladly take it however long that run lasts for him, especially as you’re waiting for Dean Kramer to get back. But in Roger’s case, I mean, let’s go, man, like you don’t have to be the guy you were last year, but you know, can you start pitching to a three and a half era? Can you start? How about start pitching to a four ERA from this point forward, you know? How about that? That’s at least good enough to say we’ll continue sending you out there every five days, so.. but it’s hard, right? And just because you were successful one year doesn’t mean that it’s going to continue. I mean, Rogers is a great story of that. I mean, look at what he was, his rookie year, you know, he’s in the All-Star game, and the Marlins, as much as I don’t know, like it’s tough for me to even think about the Marlins sitting there as a baseball ops and taking them seriously, right? The number of regime changes they’ve had, the number of times they’ve had good teams, and they’ve sold them off, all that, but they thought they had an ace five years, five years ago with what he looked like, and it just hasn’t gone that way since then, and I would also say, and this is where I’ll defend Michaelias a little bit, look at Kyle Stowers last year, a great, great, great success, great story, all-star game, all that, and I love the guy, I mean, I, you know, I said to you the affinity I had for him personally, just a little bit of experience I had around him in the Orioles clubhouse for a couple years, but he got hurt towards the end of last year. He was hurt early on. Right now, he’s batting 211 with three home runs. You know, he’s been below replacement level. Connor Norby has a 668 OPS, he’s hitting 213 You know, so that’s a trade where you’re kind of looking at it in a big picture sense. Early on, it looked like, oh, Miami just pulled a fast one on the Orioles, and then last year it kind of reverted to, hey, this looks like it’s working out for both sides. Now this year, the way it’s trending, and look, this is baseball, right, ebb and flow of a long season, all that, but this year it’s kind of looking like, okay, well, Rogers was the great Cinderella story last year, that’s gone away, but the two guys that Miami got from the Orioles in that deal aren’t doing so hot right now, so you know, and that’s that tends to be, you’ve heard me say this a lot at the trade deadline the last few years, how for every time you remember Justin Verlander going to the Astros or CC Sabathia going to the Brewers, right? You think about these robust deals that end up being like a big story in October. Most of the time, most of these trades don’t move the needle all that much. Four

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Nestor Aparicio  33:16

years later, Eduardo Rodriguez makes a start against you, and you’re like, oh yeah,

Luke Jones  33:21

but that’s sure, but that said, Andrew Miller did everything he was supposed to do for the Orioles, right? It’s not his fault that they got swept by the Royals. At least

Nestor Aparicio  33:29

we don’t have a Jake area going on right now, where he’s left and is winning Cy Young’s and World Series elsewhere. So,

Luke Jones  33:34

8

although, although I will bring it up, and look, I’m not making this comparison, but Grayson Rodriguez is pitching for the Angels again. He actually pitched pretty well on Thursday, you know. There’s five innings, but believe he got my

Nestor Aparicio  33:46

guy’s gonna walk 150 times this year. Though,

Luke Jones  33:50

you know, it’s funny, I was actually looking at this because this is always an interesting time of year, right? But because we, we flat out say Memorial Day is kind of the checkpoint where you say, okay, it’s not early anymore, it’s not, but I always like to kind of look at April numbers compared to May numbers, because it kind of, to me, it kind of gives you a better perspective on where guys are trending. I don’t like Taylor, Taylor Ward’s hitting well below 200 in the month of May, he has three extra bases, I mean, remember in April, we were saying, okay, he’s not hitting home runs, but he’s leading the league in Dub. We

Nestor Aparicio  34:24

keep saying he’s gonna hit home runs because he hit 30, let you know, and he’s gonna hit home runs.

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Luke Jones  34:28

Don’t get me wrong, I, you know me, man, I love on base, right? I love guys that draw walks, but you do need to hit, you need to need to slug at some point. They need that from him, you know. I’m not, don’t, don’t revert to not walking, you know, and it’s not like he was a guy that didn’t walk at all before, but eating off those early doubles, to me, he’s, he’s still this newfound patient approach for him, he’s still looking for a sweet spot, right, he’s still looking for that middle ground that you’re drawing. Walks, you’re forcing pitchers to work, but when you’re getting your pitch, you need to hit it right. Too many called third strikes for him that over the last month or so, that you know it’s kind of eaten into where he was as far as his production, but but this is a team, you know, we’ve talked about it’s flawed, you know, they made a bad base running mistake again on Thursday night, they got really good pitching, but squandered some early opportunity at the plate and didn’t score, so you know that’s kind of what we’re looking at here. I mean, they’ve got to play, they have played better baseball overall over the last week, they’ve pitched much better with their rotation over the last eight to 10 days, that’s been encouraging to see, but as I wrote at Baltimore positive.com it only matters if you continue this now, you know, even if it’s not a win 11 of 12 kind of thing, you need to win series slow and steady, win series, win two out of three, win two out of three, win two out of three, that’s how you get back to 500 and that’s that’s when people start to take you more seriously in terms of whether you’re going to be a viable playoff contender in the AL or not.

Nestor Aparicio  36:09

He’s with Jones, he’s Baltimore Luke. You can find him out on the interwebs, you can find us all weekend long. Blue Jays are in town, we are waiting on Raven’s mandatory camp a week and a half from now. We’re going to be doing the Maryland Crab Cake Tour, Sorrento of Arbutus, on the 10th of June. Put some dates together for a Green Mount Station later on in the month as well. We’re going to be getting back to all of our sponsors, including Coco’s and Pizza Johns and Costa’s State Fair and others. It’s all brought to you by the Maryland Lottery, Maryland Treasures, scratch-offs to give away waiting the Ms. Pac-Mans. We’ll have those as well next month. Also, our friends at GBMC, keeping us alive and well, and out on the road, and Farnham and Dermer, they are the comfort guys. You can find them out on the web, 410 36777 Good weather is here, waiting on better baseball. Here we shall see. It was a better week. We’ll see if June can be a better month, I’m Nestor. He’s Luke. We are WNST AM 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore positive.