With spring training ramping up in Sarasota ahead of the 2023 season, I’ve offered a dozen Orioles thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. While listening to Sunday’s entire John Angelos media session adds context, I wish the chairman expressed stronger urgency for championship-caliber baseball. Making Camden Yards a broader destination is great, but Baltimore hasn’t been to a World Series in 40 years with his family owning the Orioles over the last 30.
2. Angelos expressed a goal of “sustained success” and the Orioles being “competitive and relevant,” but that’s rather ambiguous. Intsead of citing Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Milwaukee as models, St. Louis — which is hardly a big market — is a more impressive bar for which to strive if you’re serious about winning.
3. It’s quite the contrast hearing Angelos suggest “it’s not my job to predict payroll” and defer to the front office while reading Phillies owner John Middleton’s recent comments. Yes, they’re different markets, but the Orioles currently rank 29th out of 30 major league clubs in 2023 payroll. It’s disappointing.
4. And let’s stop using false dichotomies that only serve to lower expectations. Becoming a bigger player in free agency doesn’t mean abandoning player development and the farm system. Building community partnerships and having concerts aren’t prerequisites to winning. All of this can be done concurrently.
5. Those criticisms aside, Angelos deserves credit for hiring Mike Elias and allowing the baseball operations department to complete the exhaustive work to rebuild the organization these last several years. Though not offering specifics, Angelos saying Elias and Brandon Hyde are “here for the long haul” contractually was good news.
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6. Considering how critical the bullpen again figures to be to the Orioles’ chances, the news that closer Felix Bautista is behind schedule this spring and setup man Dillon Tate will begin the season on the injured list is concerning. Repeating 2022’s overall level of health will be tough.
7. While the upside of the rotation largely hinges on top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez being the real deal, veterans Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin give the starting pitching a higher floor than it’s enjoyed in several years. Most candidates still carry substantial questions, but having more options is an improvement.
8. After posting a 3.28 ERA and averaging 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings over last year’s second half, Kyle Bradish is my breakout pick for the rotation. I’m less confident about Dean Kremer — who’s pitching in the World Baseball Classic — repeating his 3.23 ERA with a 6.2 per nine strikeout rate.
9. If DL Hall doesn’t win a rotation spot, I’m not hesitating sending him to Norfolk to continue developing as a starter. While command issues may eventually lead to a relief role, I’m not considering that for 2023 until August or September. You can’t give up on starter potential this soon.
10. Ryan Mountcastle is coming off one of the more peculiar seasons in recent memory with his Statcast numbers painting a dramatically different picture from the disappointing .656 OPS he produced after the All-Star break. Unfortunately, the Camden Yards left-field wall didn’t move any closer to home plate this winter.
11. I suspect many fans would feel better about the offseason if the Orioles came to terms on a contract extension for Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson to buy out a couple years of free agency and signal some long-term stability. The longer you wait, the more expensive these usually become.
12. Considering their health and good fortune in 2022, the AL East, the volatility accompanying young players, and the underwhelming offseason, the Orioles not being a darling of win-loss projection systems isn’t surprising. I see a wide range of possible outcomes for this club. Much still has to go right.
