With the Orioles prevailing to take two out of three games from the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. On a cold, damp getaway Sunday, the Orioles trailed 4-0 in the first inning and were facing last year’s AL Cy Young runner-up in Dylan Cease. Instead of thoughts drifting to the off-day, they won 8-4 to take the series. It was the most impressive victory of the young season.
2. The Baltimore offense entered Monday leading the AL in walks and the majors in on-base percentage, which would have sounded impossible at even the height of the Buck Showalter era. Yes, it’s early, but this lineup is wearing out pitchers by consistently working deep counts.
3. Adley Rutschman has close to twice as many walks as strikeouts and has reached base in all but one of the Orioles’ first 16 games. Brandon Hyde will eventually need to give his star catcher some full days off, but his approach at the plate is just so impressive.
4. Jorge Mateo is the early team leader in wins above replacement, per both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Consistency will be key, but his strikeout rate is way down, his walk rate is up, and his fielding and baserunning remain so valuable. He’s had quite an impressive start.
I know it's only April 17th, but holy Jorge Mateo pic.twitter.com/F7Nv9ZYuVP
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5. Though Grayson Rodriguez must find a way to start faster in his outings, the rookie’s ability to settle in, establish his plus changeup, and retire 12 of the last 14 batters he faced after that poor first inning on Sunday was encouraging. His ability to miss bats is evident.
6. Some patience for Rodriguez is warranted when watching the rest of the starting rotation with Cole Irvin already being demoted and Dean Kremer looking like the 2021 version of himself. You hope the returning Kyle Bradish provides a lift this week, but the starting pitching has been disconcerting.
7. Cedric Mullins came to life in Chicago and drove in four runs in Sunday’s comeback win. He’s walking at a higher rate and faring more like he did two years ago against left-handed pitching, which is key to his overall value.
8. In six innings since allowing the walk-off homer to Adam Duvall in the second game of the season, Felix Bautista has allowed no runs and two hits, struck out 13 batters, and gotten a swing and a miss on close to a third of the total pitches he’s thrown. Absurd.
9. The bullpen is off to a shaky start overall, but Mike Baumann tossed 2 2/3 scoreless innings in the White Sox series and is looking like someone who can contribute in tight games if he can cut down on his walks. The stuff is there for him to succeed.
10. Part of the Jorge Lopez trade, the recently recalled Yennier Cano was impressive on Friday and Saturday with three strikeouts in 2 2/3 hitless innings. Though his stuff doesn’t compare to Bautista’s repertoire, another big hard-throwing right-hander in the bullpen wouldn’t hurt.
11. You hope Gunnar Henderson’s two-hit Sunday gets him going, but he’s struggled against off-speed and breaking pitches thus far, which is what we saw last year. That the 21-year-old sports a .373 on-base percentage with his ability to draw walks does make it easier to remain patient as he adjusts.
12. Roughly 10% through the season, the Orioles are on a 91-win pace and entered Monday tied with Cleveland for the final wild-card spot, which you’ll take. I expect the defense to be fine after a rough start, but the pitching must improve markedly to remain a serious playoff contender.
