With just hours not days between games, none of the four Christmas teams will be resting comfortably before Wednesday afternoon. Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the Ravens’ holiday path toward the playoffs and what happens if the Steelers lose to the Chiefs?
Luke Jones and Nestor Aparicio discussed the Ravens’ playoff path, emphasizing the importance of their upcoming game against the Texans on Christmas Day. They highlighted the Ravens’ bye week strategy, which allowed them to prepare for quick turnarounds. The conversation covered the challenges of playing on short rest, the Texans’ offensive struggles, and the potential impact of the Steelers-Chiefs game. They also analyzed the Ravens’ tiebreaker advantages over the Chargers and Broncos and the importance of winning their final games to secure a home playoff game. The discussion concluded with reflections on the Ravens’ recent success and the potential playoff scenarios.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Ravens playoffs, Steelers Chiefs, Christmas Day, Texans Steelers, bye week, advanced scouting, short week, Houston Texans, Lamar Jackson, offensive line, playoff scenarios, division race, home playoff, road games, Super Bowl
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
8
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S T am 1570 Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore, positive. Hope you’re setting a space on your Guile for us here during the holiday season. You got friends, family, relatives in love, them all up and make sure you have the Ravens game on, and make sure you have your Netflix password ready for it all to toggle here. Luke Jones joins us now. We’re gonna be doing the crab cake tour on the seventh of January at libs grill in Bel Air. It’s gonna be brought to you by the Maryland lottery as well as Jiffy Lube multi care powering Luke back and forth. Weird week we we all witnessed the Steelers victory the other night. I guess that feels like a long time ago. Once you know, Wednesday afternoon gets here, the strangest thing I think seeing the Texans and this Foursome, this four pack that the league put together, they’re all headed to the playoffs. Now, we got to watch the Texans play the other day. Got to watch them play the best team. We’re going to watch the Steelers play them. Now this play in and I sort of said it’s a little like a World Cup round robin, like we’re group, we’re the group of death, you know, for for Christmas Day, but, but we have seen the Texans play. We have we’re going to get another look at the chiefs who, if you think you’re going to win the Super Bowl, you’re going to get a look at the Chiefs at some point next month, maybe a much rested version of the chiefs that they can beat the Steelers. But great day of football on Christmas Day, I would say, except that, and I’ve already used this in the headline at Baltimore positive from our previous piece, these games are a slog. I mean, this is not going to be creative, well rested, fundamental football on Wednesday. You
Luke Jones 01:39
wouldn’t think so, certainly not the well rested part. I mean, we can talk about the fundamentals and how sharp these teams are, how well prepared all of that. I think this is where you actually go back to the Ravens having their bye week a few weeks back. They were in a position where they knew coming out of the buy. Four games ago, you had three games in 11 days. They were able to do to make a really concentrated, concerted effort to prepare for these games, knowing that you had quick turnarounds, knowing you weren’t going to have normal weeks. So I think they did a lot of their advanced scouting at that point in time. And let’s face it, when you’re it’s one thing to talk about a team like Pittsburgh that you’re intimately familiar with. They know you very well, but it was a chance for them to look at Houston, who they played last year twice, of course, but that was last year, so it gave them a chance to really look at them, really work ahead, you know, with some of their advanced scouting. You know, they started working on their scouting report weeks ago during the bye week. So I think that’s where it helps. But yeah, it’s tough to for every time you have a Ravens, Bengals shootout, like we saw uh back in November on a Thursday night, you you get a half dozen slogs, right? You get a half dozen games where guys are tired, they’re penalties. There’s not much going on in terms of a lot of points being scored. But you know, if you’re the ravens, you’re looking at this game and saying, Hey, we just beat Pittsburgh. We’re in a position now where we’re tied for first place in the division. We’ll have the advantage of not watching what happens in Pittsburgh with the Steelers going up against the chiefs, but certainly being aware as they’re preparing to kick off, then against Houston later in the afternoon, Wednesday and but you’re going up against the Houston team that for all the expectations. And I think there were a lot of people out there who thought the Texans after last year, CJ Stroud being a year older, bringing in Joe Mixon, bringing in Stefan Diggs, who since suffered a season ending knee injury, bringing in some of the additions that they made on the defensive side of the ball, which, by the way, they have a great defense. You know what? That’s certainly going to be a challenge, facing their defense, although they’re saying the same thing about talking about facing Lamar Jackson and this ravens offense, but for the Texans offense, it hasn’t really come together in the way that they hoped. I think for all the accolades for CJ Stroud a year ago, go look at his profile. He’s been much more middling than great. This year. He’s running for his life and yeah, I mean, their offensive line has been a big part of the problem
Nestor Aparicio 04:20
there? Well, do I see Lamar Jackson regress? Have the offensive line not be very good, right? It’s certainly,
Luke Jones 04:26
8it’s certainly a factor, and especially if you don’t have Lamar Jackson’s mobility, which CJ Stroud can move around some, but he’s certainly not Lamar back there running around so but, you know, Joe Mixon has had a good year, but look at his yards per carry. It’s not like, it’s, you know he’s not Derek Henry. It’s not even Justice Hill. In that way, it’s been fine, but their running game isn’t great. Their passing game isn’t great. You know, you you look at their numbers, and if you covered up the names, the profile is not terribly different than the Pittsburgh Steelers. In that way, where defense good all. Offense has been middling to bottom third of the league, you know, somewhere in that, in that category, you know, in that department, that area. So if you’re the ravens, Houston’s not a juggernaut, but they’re certainly more than capable of beating you. If you come in and you’re banged up and you’re smelling yourself after you’ve beaten the Steelers and you’re feeling good, and you know, if your focus isn’t sharp, and you make mistakes and you commit penalties, which they’re apt to do, although they did not do that against the Steelers, I’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that penalties were not a problem, and we saw what happened. But short week, you’re always facing that challenge. It’s a grind for these four teams. They all know they’re going to be in the playoffs. At the same time, this is all. These are measuring sticks, right? I mean, it’s not the end all be all, but at the same time, you know, if you’re Houston, how do you measure up against Kansas City? Well, you know, it didn’t go so well for them on Saturday, but if they beat the ravens, I’m guessing they’re feeling really good about themselves. Pittsburgh. Obviously, they need to win. The Ravens need to win in terms of the AFC north so if you beat the Texans on Wednesday, if you’re the ravens, not that I think you fear going to Houston in the playoffs or fear facing the Texans, but at the same time, it’s a team you very well likely could run into at some point, whether you’re on the road or whether they’re coming to Baltimore. So, you know, it’s fascinating, right? I mean, it, as you mentioned, it does remind you of World Cup, you know, where you’ve got the group of death, right? I mean, it’s something along those lines. But, you know, it’s, you never know with the short week. I mean, you really just don’t, and that’s where you kind of default to health. And I already mentioned Stefan Diggs already gone for the year. Tank Dell, we all saw what happened with him, just a frightening, brutal, sad scene, knowing the injury he had late last year and coming back from that, and now him being in that department again, but from a football standpoint, okay, the Texans have Nico Collins, who’s fantastic. But you know, is John met me going to play. He’s been banged up. He’s got a shoulder. I mean, he was listed as limited on the first injury report this week. That’s more of an estimate. You know, are they going to be counting on Robert Woods, who was good three or four years ago, but it’s kind of, there’s a forgotten guy at this point in time. So, you know, you for me, yeah, the ravens, you know, going up against the Houston defense is a challenge, but this ravens offense is a challenge for anyone. They face. For me, the real key is, is Houston going to be able to do enough offensively. And if you’re the Ravens defense, you made the big splash play that you needed to make against Pittsburgh. Can you go on the road and play good football against a playoff whether what, however you feel about the Houston offense, it’s a playoff team, so go on the road and take care of business in that way. So, you know, good tests for both these teams. And yeah, the Ravens certainly have more to play for, although Houston hasn’t given up the number. You know, the visions of being the number three seed, I suppose you know, for whatever that’s worth. But you know, I think for the ravens, the urgency is obvious, but again, can’t be taking this team lightly, and can’t be too satisfied with what you did on Saturday night, which, hey, it was a great win over Pittsburgh, but it’s not as great. It’s not as meaningful. If you stub your toe on Wednesday and suddenly, you know, if the if, if the Steelers find a way to beat the chiefs, then we’re having a much different conversation going in the week 18. If that happens, you know, the
Nestor Aparicio 08:43
one thing for the Ravens in beating the Steelers, you want to feel better about the position. You want to feel like you accomplish something other than just beating the Steelers like they still haven’t wrapped up the division. They still need help to wrap up the division at some point here, right? And whatever Kansas City is going to be, and we talked about them getting to take almost a month off if all they do is win on Christmas Day, they’re just done until the 17th, 18th, 19th of January. The teams that are coming Denver, the Chargers. I always want to call them San Diego. I probably just call them San Diego, just like the Raiders are Oakland for life. That’ll be my little dig at all of them, but they’re not backing up. And part of the problem is you would think like, well, the ravens are a lot better team than the Chargers or than the bronco. Don’t want to find yourself falling down the mountain here because you lose a game on the road against the playoff team on short rest. We’re talking about the slog of all of this. The road team always has a disadvantage, which should be a disadvantage of Kansas City as well in the early game going to Pittsburgh. And by the way, everybody get your Netflix together, because you’re gonna have to figure it out at your grandmother’s house on Wednesday. You better make sure the Wi Fi is working, or you’re going to be Auckland the whole after. Like that Tyson fight that some of you goofs paid for out there. I don’t know. I don’t want to judge, but I’ll judge. If you bought that, you’ll buy anything, um, including the next administration coming in. But nonetheless, for me, these four gate, four teams playing on Christmas Day, tremendous disadvantage right here in this game, because of the fatigue and because of just all it is. And I would love to see the Ravens play the Texan straight up. We might have a chance to do that two weeks from now, right before it’s all over with in a real game with real rest of these Thursday night games that get thrown together and the Thanksgivings. This is even worse after playing Saturday night in big games all these, all four of these teams, played slobber knockers on Saturday. They have to come back through all of this and play again on Wednesday. I don’t expect it to be good football, and for that reason, I don’t know what to make of it. Kansas City, lot to play for. They get the rest Pittsburgh, everything to play for. They’re at home. Just got their ass kicked in Philadelphia, just got their ass kicked in Baltimore. They got to figure it out. And as Tomlin said in the post game is, you know, let’s not overreact. It’s just a loss. Well, you’re having dinner, Christmas afternoon, watching the Ravens try to steal the division from you. You know, in your home with your third loss on Christmas night in a row, you’re not a contender anymore. You’re just lunch now. I wouldn’t want to see him come in here again three weeks from now, the Ravens win the division, if that’s the way it rolls out. But the tournament itself is a little bit of that for me and the styles making fights to say, Well, if the Ravens were going to be a wild card, they would have to go back to Houston, right? Don’t want to see him go to Pittsburgh. You and I have already been through that. Where the Chargers go? Where are the Broncos? Are they going to win out and put Pittsburgh or the Ravens in peril? I have to go to Buffalo. I don’t know, but it’s tighter than you think. This short rest is a way bigger deal, especially going on the road, no matter how good you feel about beating Pittsburgh or how good you feel about Kansas City only having one loss, you’re going on the road this week, on Christmas day. This is a treacherous day. It feels like Saturday was a towel off and it was cold out, and everybody’s happy, and everybody piled into the streets and beaten Pittsburgh. But this is, dare I say, a trap game. The whole scheduling of it was Trappy and weird, but I’m more worried about who we playing two weeks from now, where are we playing them, and how all this relates to that, because the tournament’s getting tighter now to me, as the Broncos and Chargers come on and play and the bills can’t play defense, you, and everybody seems to think the chiefs are vulnerable. We’ll see. And I think the ravens are almost bound to be that team that’s going to wind up going to Kansas City in some weird way because of the Houston thing in four I don’t know. We’ll find out. I think it’s a tough thing for the ravens to win on Wednesday, and then they have to go play Cleveland, and they’re going to have to play hard again next week, again. Um, you know, this is, this is where it really gets tough, and the Ravens smell good because they won. Miss a couple of kicks on Houston. Stop tackling a little bit fumble the ball, somehow you lose on Wednesday. What have you accomplished, especially if Pittsburgh wins,
Luke Jones 13:19
yeah. I mean, the only, I don’t disagree with most of what you said, the only thing I would push back on a little bit is the Ravens have a head to head tiebreaker on the chargers and Denver, so they’re a game up with two to play. And I mean, if you’re, if we’re talking about the Ravens losing to Cleveland in week 18, then I don’t know what our expectations are after that anyway, right? I mean, the browns, especially if they’re going to start the DTR kid, he’s terrible. I mean, I don’t say this about too many young quarterbacks, but I’m waiting for that guy to do anything to impress me. By
Nestor Aparicio 13:52
the way, Lamar is going to have to play though, right? I mean, like we’re going to have to play in that game, so for that alone, right? It just sucks.
8Luke Jones 14:00
No, I agree. I’m just, I think you’re playing. I was just saying, I would say playing up a little bit too much to the chargers,
Nestor Aparicio 14:09
Denver, fine, then you go, because they have a type of losers, right? Houston and again, look, I agree with everything else. You said Pittsburgh could lose out, right? You believe that? I
Luke Jones 14:19
mean, they could, sure. I mean, but this is what happens when Russell Wilson’s your quarterback, and you’ve got some guys banged up, and your offense is at best, okay? You know that that’s kind of the reality of it, right? And their defense got their butts kicked on Saturday. Now, they were banged up. I mean, if you look at it, I mean, they they were, they were missing both starting corners after Joey Porter left the game, and they’re missing to Sean Elliott and missing some other guys, but their front seven wasn’t as banged up and the Ravens ran all over them. So I to me, you said it for Pittsburgh when Christmas is as much about what’s under the hood as they need to win that. Game when you’ve lost two in a row to legit contenders, if you have any designs at all of thinking, not that you’re a playoff team, but if you actually want to do anything in the playoffs, they’ve got to win, right? I mean, that’s that. That’s a different factor for them, in the same way we were talking about the Raven Steelers game on set this past Saturday night as being a game that the Ravens needed, yes in terms of playoff ramifications, but also their psyche when they had lost eight of nine to Pittsburgh. So the Ravens took care of that part, that element of it. But to your point, you’re going to Houston facing a Texans team that for as much as I don’t love their offense, their defense is really good. They’ve been good against the run, they’ve been good against the pass. So that’s going to be a challenge. I mean, this isn’t a game that you know, especially with it being a short week, that I’m expecting the ravens to hang 40 on them. Now, the Ravens offense is so good that they could still score 30 some. And I’d say, Well, it’s the Ravens offense. But always
Nestor Aparicio 15:55
8sloppy. I just don’t know what sloppy typically is, you know what I mean? And and to both of our points, the Ravens in Kansas City both on the road. They’re both favored on the road. There’s go on the road, on short rest, on Christmas and win. They’re expected to do that because they’re expected to honestly win a championship game, or like that. Or unless buffalo gets in a way right? Like, there is this, there’s Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens and everybody else, right? Like, that’s the perception of it clearly that mean the ravens are a touchdown favorite against Pittsburgh. They’re a favorite on the road against Houston. Kansas City is a favorite on the road in Pittsburgh. So the battle lines are drawn. Kansas City and the Ravens are better teams. Now go out and do it on short, rest on short, you know, on the road, like they’re asking a lot of the ravens and Kansas City if they both survive Christmas night, and we’re all having figgy pudding at eight o’clock and, you know, feeling good, and you’re hugging the nieces and all that, then they really are good, you know, like they’re what we think they are. One of them stumble on Christmas Day. Doesn’t mean they’re not we think they are, but it puts him in a weirder position to have to continue to play hard.
Luke Jones 17:02
Yeah. I mean, look, Patrick mahones, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, say, no more, right? I mean, that’s why those are the real contenders in the AFC right now, and everyone else is chasing them now. Doesn’t mean that someone won’t stub their toe. Doesn’t mean that someone won’t have injuries in the wrong spot at the wrong time. I mean, we talked about this with Saturday night’s game, you know, the Ravens were much healthier than the Steelers. Oh, well, that’s how the game goes, right? In the same way that Cincinnati took no pity on the Ravens a couple years ago when they played a playoff game and Lamar Jackson was hurt, right? I mean, it’s how this works. But, yeah, you look at these teams and you’re trying to size this up. You know, Denver. Good story, chargers. Good story, Pittsburgh. Are they more good story, or are they going to get off the mat here and show you something right against Kansas City? Or is it going to be a third straight loss and they’re going to be staring at being a wild card as the Ravens take the division right uh, potentially so. Well, good
Nestor Aparicio 18:01
story would be Denver, sandy or San Diego coming here, right? Like, if the Ravens do this the right way and pull up their lunch on Wednesday and the Ravens win, and then went out, ravens win the division. They’re a three seed. They’re going to see harbors. Brother, probably right. I
Luke Jones 18:18
mean, I mean, we still have two weeks ago, it’s, tough for me to say definitively and under that, but you want to play at home, right? I mean, we’ve talked about this. We talked about this a lot last week with the Ravens winning on Saturday night and taking care of business against their division rival, and putting themselves in a position where they’re tied for first place, knowing they still need a little bit of help here, and that it’s not fait accompli. But you know, you look at the most of the analytics sites now it’s somewhere close to a coin flip, or they’re even slightly favored because, well, Kansas City’s going to Pittsburgh, and they’re the favorite, as you just pointed out. But you know, you’ve got to take advantage here. You know, it gets no easier, because you are going on the road, because you are playing a playoff team, and you are banged up and Everyone’s tired, you know? Yeah, okay, the Ravens might be a little fresher, because they had their buy two weeks ago. I’m not sure how much that plays when you get into 10 minutes ago in the fourth quarter, and, you know, both teams are tired at that point in time, because you’re on a short week and it’s Christmas and everything that’s going on. So, you know, the, I think the mental grind of this, this exercise, is going to be fascinating to see, one, where all these teams are, but two, does this help? What you know, for the Raven, with the ravens, for example, let’s say, let’s dream for a moment. It’s Christmas, right? I mean this, this is the time of year of thinking about gifts and and all that joy and and all the things we have to be grateful for. But let’s say we’re talking about the Ravens in the Super Bowl six weeks from now, right? It’s not far fetched, but if they are, I’m guessing we’re looking back at this stretch of time. And we’re saying, wow, they beat Pittsburgh. Wow. They went on the road and beat Houston, and Pittsburgh stubbed their toe again, and the Ravens take the division, and they didn’t have the first round by but they got, got a home playoff game. And you know that Pittsburgh game really tested their medal, and going on the road in Houston tested their medal to then potentially have to go to Buffalo, or potentially have to go to Kansas City, which, you know, they’re gonna have to go on the road somewhere, you know, when you’re not the, you know, most likely, you know, not, not being the number one seed or or even number two. So, you know, this is, this is the kind of stuff that, you know, a narrative forms, right? And ultimately, it’s all about where you finish. They get knocked out in the first round. We’re not going to talk it too much about them finally beating Pittsburgh in week 16, but if they make a deep run, we’re probably going to be talking about that week 16 game being the start of that in the same way that you know the 2000 Ravens. You think about them winning in Tennessee in the regular season, and how that really started the role that they got on the second half of the season, or in 2012 it was beating the Giants in that week 16 game after they had dropped three in a row, and they clinched the division, and suddenly things didn’t seem so dire. And before you know it, they’re going on a on a roll, and they’re in Denver and they’re in New England and they’re in New Orleans playing in the Super Bowl. So you know, it’s all about building that momentum and feeling better about yourself, and obviously playoff positioning and hoping you have a home playoff game. But you know, all of these moments are they’re big when they happen, and it feels big when it happens, but ultimately, history judges just how important it was, right? You know, if the ravens are in the Super Bowl. We’re looking back at week 16 saying, wow, they finally got over the hump against Pittsburgh, and you know, that helped them win the division, and that helped them, you know, they didn’t have to talk about not being able to beat the Steelers anymore, and maybe they’ve crossed paths with them in January, right? Or that doesn’t happen. And then we say, well, it’s a nice win. It felt good at the time, but they didn’t, they didn’t break through, right? So you don’t know, but you can only control what’s right in front of you, and that’s going to Houston and finding a way. I mean, in the same way. Saturday night, it was a find a way game. Same thing on Wednesday, find a way. And if you do that, then you have a chance to exhale and you figure out when you’re playing Cleveland, Saturday, Sunday, whenever, whenever they schedule it, you know, I don’t think they’re going to put that one in prime time. I wouldn’t think, but, you know, you have to take care of business. You’re not going to have anything clinched, but you’ll have an opportunity one way or the other. So and even,
8Nestor Aparicio 22:37
well, the NRC, the Vikings and the lions and packers that that’s going to be prime time, it’s going to be flexed out, right? Like, that’s going to be a big deal, right? The NFC,
Luke Jones 22:51
I would, I would think so. I mean, I’ll be totally honest with you, haven’t looked at the week flexing,
Nestor Aparicio 22:55
at the A, F, C was This Week on doing the Saturday, Wednesday, they featured, you know, they featured the Big Four teams, and they’re featuring them on Christmas Day on Netflix, by the way. But for for the NFC that last weekend, they’ve got this thing pegged all the way around. I think, you know, even, even the commanders and the Eagles play a little bit of a role in all that. The NFC playoff picture is kind of set, kind of, sort of, but the division leaders aren’t right. I mean, Atlanta and Tampa and what happened late on Sunday night, as well as just, just middling teams, much like we think of the Houston Texan as a you know, they’re benign. Well, they’re benign until they beat you on Christmas Day, I guess, to some degree. Well,
Luke Jones 23:41
8I mean, look, I mean, it’s, and this is where we kind of talk about, you know, they don’t want the Steelers to come into Baltimore. You don’t want to do this or do that. I mean, it’s the playoffs. You’re going to play good teams, right? I mean, there’s, No, there’s not going to be a path where you, you just kind of sleepwalk through it, right? I mean, you got to go beat good teams. But, you know, looking at the week 18 schedule, because you brought it up, I would assume Minnesota, Detroit, probably is a Sunday night game, right? I mean, I don’t point is, Well, that’ll be for the one seed, right? I mean, I guess, I mean, we go by, yeah, you know, we still, we still have another week of games, but until we get to that point, so it’s impossible. They never really say that, but, but, but? I mean, for the for the ravens, I gotta win, right? I mean, there’s no you can’t clinch the AFC North this week, so you’re gonna have to win two games. And it’s that simple, right? Let’s go through
Nestor Aparicio 24:33
scenarios again for everybody. Just tune in, Pittsburgh loses at lunchtime on Christmas Day. So I picked my wife up the airport come home for the 430 game. By the time the ball rolls out, the Steelers are either still in the cat bird’s position because they’ve just upset at home the one lost chiefs, right? If that. Happens and they lose, the door is wide open for the ravens, right? It is, yeah, if they win, if they win, doors still not really open. Now, you’re just holding your lunch and you’re waiting on Joe burrow the following week to help you while Jim Schwartz tries to and Miles Garrett try to beat up Lamar Jackson the last week, right? So this early game, as much as you and I can focus on the Late game, we will, and we’ll watch it, and we’ll be on blue sky and Twitter and all those places. The Pittsburgh, Kansas City game holds immense value for anything with the ravens, in regard to Pittsburgh’s fate being tied to the Ravens fate in a massive way, in that we’re still chasing them, even though we beat them. And I think that was the hardest psychological thing, is saying, Yeah, you beat them, but you still need help. Like, really the tie breaker thing, yeah,
Luke Jones 25:51
yeah, because you look at it, I mean, obviously they’re tied. They’ve split the game. So head to head is not going to come into play whatsoever. Division record as things play out, if, if both teams win out Pittsburgh, you know, they would be tied with their division record, and then it goes to record in common games, the Pittsburgh Steelers went to Las Vegas and beat the Raiders. The Ravens lost at home to the Las Vegas Raiders. Now, under that scenario, Pittsburgh will would have beaten Kansas City as well, right? So, so you have that so, so, so that that’s the scenario. I mean, the rate the Ravens need Pittsburgh to lose another game period. Now, however,
Nestor Aparicio 26:33
you got the best case scenario in the world, they’re playing the Chiefs rest. However,
8Luke Jones 26:38
there is the other scenario, and I, and this is still a plausible scenario, if Pittsburgh beats Kansas City, and the Ravens were to lose to Houston, okay, it some people might think, Oh, it’s over. Then, no, it’s not, because in week 18, Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati, the Ravens play Cleveland. Under that scenario, should Pittsburgh lose to Cincinnati and the Ravens beat Cleveland, the Ravens would finish with a better division record, which would give the AFC north to them. So look, I mean, those are the two. You know the two, not, not the most obvious scenarios, but like, those are the two most plausible, you know, paths, I guess. I mean, unless you think, what
Nestor Aparicio 27:27
if we both lose on Wednesday? I’m just thinking this stuff, they both lose on Wednesday. It’s still the same scenario. It’d be the Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh. We beat Cleveland. We’re in, right? Okay, man, I’m telling you, this early game is important on Wednesday.
Luke Jones 27:41
And you know, I mean, the Ravens want to win on win on Wednesday too, right? I mean, so, I mean, it’s look, it’s tis the season, right? And if it all comes down to it, and Pittsburgh takes care of their business, and they get off the mat, and they win these next two and they win the division. The Ravens have no one to blame but themselves, right? But because of what happened earlier in the year, now that doesn’t mean that all is lost. It just means, yeah, you’re gonna have a way tougher path in January. But if you play the way you’re capable of, it’s not impossible, you know. It’s not the most likely outcome. I suppose you know. But because you look at the history of you know, very few teams have gone on the road exclusively. You know, the Bucha nurse did it a few years ago. That was the COVID year, though, where I don’t think they played in a stadium that had more more than 7000 fans in January. So
Nestor Aparicio 28:33
8Revelation, if the Ravens win both of these games, their worst case scenario is going to Houston. They wouldn’t go to Pittsburgh. Right, right, right. So them being in Pittsburgh in the first weeks not happening as long as they win. Okay? I’m just trying to get my arms around all the possibilities, because, to your point, they have tie breakers with San Diego and Denver. Them having to go to Pittsburgh would involve them really losing out, right
Luke Jones 28:59
at this point, I think so, yeah. I mean, obviously there’s, you know, when you have two weeks worth of games, you can have some weird things happen, you know, right? I mean, you can have some strange things happen. But, yeah, I think the way it shapes up now, yeah, I think you’re right there. I mean, it would be kind of weird thought
Nestor Aparicio 29:17
about that, because I thought going to Pittsburgh would be something you probably don’t want to do, you know? And if you go to Houston and win, they receive, though, right? They received so you wouldn’t automatically go to Kansas City. If San Diego or devil were to go to Pittsburgh or go to Buffalo and win, they would then go to Kansas City. So the Ravens would then still have a chance to go to either Pittsburgh or Buffalo in the second round. I’m just trying to play all this out before Christmas comes, because I think the pathway is everything it really is. And I look there’s only a couple of pathways, but avoiding buffalo is a good pathway to have somebody else go in there, avoiding Pittsburgh. You. Not going to avoid them all, but you have to think about what, what plays for the Ravens advantage. And I don’t know what that is. You don’t like the way Buffalo’s defense plays. Nobody does, right? But I don’t know that I love going in there at seven degrees in Josh
Luke Jones 30:13
Allen, I mean, yeah, he’s, he’s, I mean, regardless of anyone’s personal opinion as far as who should be MVP, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, they’re both having great season. You’d rather play Russell Wilson. I got you Sure, sure. So I think, look, I mean, we can sit here and, you know, rack your brain. As far as the best, it still comes down to wanting to play at home in the first round, right? And that still comes down to needing help and that, right? And that comes down to winning the just because of what I said, you know, you look at the 2000s right? In fact, you can go all the way back to 1990 which I think is when they expanded to a 12 team playoff field. And, you know, had the six teams, you know, making the playoffs. And you kind of look at it, there have been since 1990 I think there are four teams that made it to the Super Bowl that played all three rounds on the road, the oh five Steelers, the oh seven giants, the Packers in 2010 with Aaron Rodgers, and as I mentioned, Tampa Bay with COVID, which that, to me, is not it
8Nestor Aparicio 31:19
feels like both times the Ravens won The Super Bowl. They did it all on the road. The first time they and they had the Ray Lewis game against the Colt. So they won a home game first. Yeah, yeah. I
31:30
mean, I look, it’s home field advantage. It’s not having to get on a plane again. It’s facing in most cases, not always the case, because in 2003 the Ravens played the titans in in Baltimore in a playoff game, and the Titans were better than the ravens, right? Because they had, the Titans had lost out to the Colts for the division that year. So so it’s not always the case, but generally, a lesser teams coming in to play you if you have the home game. So yeah, it’s so important to try to get that because I don’t care who you are. I mean, even Kansas City last year, give them credit. They went into Buffalo and beat the bills. They went into Baltimore beat the Ravens. They still played Miami at home in the first round, right? I mean, as much the Vikings might be like 16 and 15 and two and have to go and play a camp or something, yeah. And that’s where you look at this, and that’s where you have to gain some perspective if the rate, if, if Pittsburgh does find a way to hold on to the division, and you say, well, they would have earned it, they would have beaten Kansas City, and since they will have earned it. And the Ravens again, the Ravens stubbed their toe against Cleveland and Vegas, right? I mean, you can’t lose the teams like that, especially in the case of the Raiders, they lost at home. I mean, talk about a loss that you know, sometimes you talk about losses early in the season, and it turns out that a team that you didn’t think was very good ends up being decent. This was the exact opposite of that. I remember us talking about that game and thinking, Okay, well, maybe the Raiders aren’t terrible. I had a hard time
Nestor Aparicio 32:56
getting Marvin to say anything good about Gardner mentioned night before the games. Yeah,
Luke Jones 33:00
8yeah. So, so obviously, that one’s aged like milk, but there’s nothing you can do about that. So again, go out to Houston, win, see what happens three hours before, you know, right, right before you kick off. And even, even if you win, you know, if you win and Kansas City wins, you still have Cincinnati in a division game, and I don’t care. And look, I’ve been very dismissive about them, because at the end of the day, you’ve got to win games that that Cincinnati team is still dangerous to play any given week because of that offense, right? So if you win, if you’re the ravens, you win on Wednesday, even if Pittsburgh beats Kansas City, you’ve still got an absolute puncher puncher’s chance in week 18, assuming, yes, you obviously have to take care of the browns. If you don’t shame on you, you deserve to play on the road then, but you have your punchers chance, especially if Cincinnati still has the door cracked to make the playoffs. You know? I mean, I would think they’re going to play even if they’re eliminated, but before week 18, they’re going to have a chance to disrupt Pittsburgh, or, you know, Pittsburgh, or change Baltimore’s plans. I think that’s enough incentive for them. And Joe burrows had a great year. Jamar Chase has had a great year. I mean, they’re playing for records and individual accomplishments, at the very least. So, so yeah, if you’re the ravens, find a way. Find a way in Houston win. And you know, you’ve still, even if it’s not in your hands, you’ve still got a plausible scenario in week 18, even if the Steelers find a way to beat the chiefs, which I’m not at all convinced that they’re going to do that. So you know, we’ll see how it plays out. So it is
Nestor Aparicio 34:39
for San Diego could both lose both games too. Yeah. I mean,
Luke Jones 34:43
right, so and again, like I said, I mean, I I’m not thinking so much in terms of the Chargers of the Broncos, because the Ravens have a head to head over both of them. I mean, again, are the Ravens going to lose out and those teams, you know, keep winning? You know. I mean that that would surprise me for that entire scenario to play out. But you know, it’s all about Houston. You know you you can’t do, there’s nothing the Ravens can do to make the Steelers lose to the chiefs on Wednesday, earlier in the afternoon. So you focus on Houston and you see what happens after that. You know they’re, they’re going to have a chance either way in week 18. You know it’s either going to be winning you’re in or when, and you’ll need help, but you need help one way or the other, so you just have to control what you can I mean, that’s, that’s the bed that they made for themselves with some of the earlier losses, and now they’ve got to sleep in it, and they still have a chance. So what more can you ask for when you’re sitting there at 10 and five, you already have a playoff spot locked up. Now you want a home playoff game. You absolutely do, and they still have a decent chance, but because they beat the Steelers on Saturday night, and, you know, they took care of their business that way, so now you’ve got to get a little bit of help and but all of that is for moot, if, you know, if you don’t take care of Houston on Wednesday. So, you know, you got to find a way to win
Nestor Aparicio 36:06
the Kansas City Chiefs 14 and one. We’ll be watching them on Netflix early in the afternoon, over the river and through the woods. Enjoy the holidays, everybody out there. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year. Watching football, talking football, Luke and I’ll be back on Thursday morning doing that all of our stuff up at Baltimore positive. You’re going to get some music classic before the week’s over, some of our greatest hits. Been a huge month for the Maryland crab cake tour, presented by the Maryland lottery and Jiffy Lube live. We had such fun last week at amicis as well as a Costas, and week before that, we were at fadelies. We’ve been at Cocos this month. We’ve also been at Gertrude and we’re headed on January 7, back to Harford County. We will be at libs grill in Bel Air with the Maryland crab cake tour for playoff week. Playoffs. They better keep playing, but they are in the playoffs, so well for that, we are grateful. So I’m clearing my calendar for the second week of January and getting ready for clearing the afternoon here on Wednesday afternoon for a lot of football on Christmas Day. He’s Luke, I’m Nestor. We’re back for more couple of sleeps. We got more football on Christmas Day. We’re W N, S D. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We never stopped talking Baltimore. Positive. You.
