Will Kremer will be the dean of the rotation next year?

Luke Jones and Nestor create a July overview of where Orioles need to be next Opening Day as it appears Mike Elias will be selling later this month.

Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ current standing and future needs. The team is 10 games under 500, with recent highlights including a 20-run game and Dean Kramer’s solid performance. However, key pitchers like Zach Eflin and Jordan Lyles have struggled. The conversation emphasized the need for significant pitching improvements, potentially through trades or free agency. They also noted the underperformance of key hitters like Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle. The team’s young core, including Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, is seen as crucial for future success, but significant offseason investments in pitching are expected.

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

Orioles, pitching, starting rotation, Dean Kramer, Kyle Bradish, trade deadline, free agency, minor league system, offense, young core, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, bullpen, management, ownership.

SPEAKERS

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Speaker 1, Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio

Nestor Aparicio  00:01

Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T am 1570 task Baltimore. We’re Baltimore, positively getting back out on the road here after the fourth of July. But it is the fourth of July week here, and the Orioles are out on the road, and when we get the Maryland crab cake tour rev back up. We’re going to be a deepest Wally’s next Tuesday. Not that I’m going to need more sausage after holiday, like the Fourth of July, but we’re going to be there on Tuesday morning on the eighth, I hope it’s not 114 degrees on the 10th of next week. We’re also going to be back out on the road for the very first time at Costas in Timonium. All brought to you by the Maryland lottery, curio, wellness. I’ve got my O going on and, of course, liberty, pure solutions, keeping my well water clean and making sure my pipes are flushing and all that stuff. All right, so Luke Jones and I got together with Alan McCallum last week at readers crab house. You’ll hear that here at wnst If you found it out of Baltimore. Positive, awesome. I I’m still like in shock that the two of you have never talked baseball together on the airwaves, but we’ve done that now. You know, it wasn’t a bad weekend, Luke. You know when, when they win a couple of games, it’s easy to get sort of optimistic, and you look up and you see their 10 games under 500 and we go back to the point where, like, it’s July 4 now, and their 10 games under 500 like it, the calendar is getting away from them, and it’s nice to feel good about a win. It’s they’re terrible when they play like dog meeting on the Cal Ripken Iron Man day. But you know, two or three times a week they win. Yeah,

Luke Jones  01:35

well, and you look at it, and it’s funny, I was looking at this over the weekend as I’m just kind of pondering the season, and you’re right. I mean, it’s a good weekend. You took two out of three from the rays. The rays are a good team. I mean, my goodness, on Friday night, the Orioles scored the most runs in a game since 2000 Eugene kingsale was in that lineup, which I had never thought of, Eugene kingsale Over the last 15 years. Why would I? But Cal Ripken, Albert Bell, Brady Anderson, like you’re going back 25 years. It was the last time the Orioles had scored 20 plus in a game. So Friday night was really fun, to your point, Saturday not fun. Zach Eflin leaves after one stiff back. We’re expecting him to go on the IL Tony Mancino said as much Sunday morning, barring some major improvement over the next 24 hours or so. He said, look for a to go on the i L, and then on Sunday, Dean Kramer comes out and really does what he’s done since the start of May. He’s pitched well, you know, since May 1, or his first start in May, he has a 298, E R, A. I mean, he’s been very solid at a time when Eflin and Sugano have completely gone in the wrong direction. It’s really been dean Kramer and Charlie Morton who have led the rotation, which they were the guys that were the biggest problems in April. So

Nestor Aparicio  02:57

here in lies your optimism that they could win 9095 games this year, which is, if Kramer can be good, they’ll win a lot of games, because they’ll score enough runs when these guys can be when they can make it five or six innings give up three or four runs. Kind of sort of bullpen can hold its water. The offense should have been good enough to win a lot of games, and Kramer would be the case study for if they can get that kind of pitching out of that guy, then get number three starting out of a number three starting pitcher, instead of number six out of a number three, but not expecting number one out of Dean Kramer, but just being a solid Scott Erickson, middle of the rotation kind of guy for me. You know that’s, that’s the way I see Dean Kramer on his best day. And he’s had a lot of best days the last 60 days.

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Luke Jones  03:42

Yeah, yeah. I mean, that was the blueprint, right? Whether you liked it or not, that’s what Mike Elias was thinking would be, how they would win games in 2025 and then the thought was, first of all, of course, he thought they were gonna have Grayson Rodriguez. But as the year went on, the thought was, okay, you can trade for a pitcher at the deadline. We’ll see about Kyle radish come mid August. You know that Tyler wells, same thing. So they gave Carl Gibson a couple million too, you know, threw him in there, yeah. I mean, they did, but even, but even that was when the plan had gone awry, right? I mean, that Grayson Rodriguez was hurt even at that point. They knew they they knew that Albert Suarez, his shoulder was not feeling great at the end of spring training, even though he began the year on the 26 man roster. But yeah, that was kind of the idea. The idea was the starting pitching is not going to be your strength. Can it be good enough? And it hasn’t been right. They’ve had they had a two and a half week, a two week stretch when they won nine of 11. And you go and look, they had a starting rotation that, you know, fan graphs breaks it all down, right? You can, you can look at any stretch of a season and see how a team ranks compared to the rest of the league. And when they went nine and two from late May through the first, what five days of June, they had a starting rotation that was, I believe. Even was I even broke it down. I have it for you right in front of me, fifth in era, starter era I’m talking about. And they were eighth in fielding independent pitching, which, that’s kind of a more predictive stat that that takes defense out of it. So like it looked good for two weeks. Since then, in the 22 games since they’ve won, they went nine and two. You know that nine of 11 stretch that had everyone optimistic when they, you know, swept the Mariners and did what they did at that point. They’ve had four quality starts in their last 22 games, and that kind of speaks to where they are now. There were some other starts in there, like, for example, Charlie Morton had a game, the game against the angels, where he was great through five and then there was a long range delay, so that technically wasn’t a quality start. But the point is, the pitching, the starting pitching, specifically, because the bullpen has been pretty good overall over the last four or five weeks, but the starting rotation went south again. Eflin has been a disaster to the point where you’re wondering if they’re even going to be able to trade him at this point in time. Sagano has not been much better,

Nestor Aparicio  06:08

but it is crazy. Two weeks ago, those were the guys were like, Hey, man, right, right. Well, it happens very, very quickly with the pitching. It

Luke Jones  06:16

really does. It does, and it just speaks to how difficult this year has been. I mean, as much as so many other things have gone wrong because the offense doesn’t get a pass, the defense doesn’t get a pass. The base running has been I mean, everything

Nestor Aparicio  06:27

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about management, throw management, ownership in, leadership in all the way through. I know fact that they had no B team to come through. I mean, you know the fact that the minor league system’s not like it’s Teeter, especially on the pitching side. It doesn’t feel like there’s anything coming down that boat, right?

Speaker 1  06:44

I mean, there’s a few guys here and there that are interesting. But is there a Grayson Rodriguez that in the way that we perceive Grayson Rodriguez, an ascending pitcher? Is there? Is there a DL Hall, the way that we looked at DL Hall four or five years ago? No. I mean, there are, there are guys. It’s not completely bare, but there’s no one that’s a sure thing. There’s no one that you look at and say that’s a guy with number one, number two kind of potential. It’s mainly guys that you would say, if all goes well, within the reasonable range of expectations, guys that are, like, back half of the rotation type options, which you need, you know, like Dean Kramer. Is that Dean Kramer has been that for them for the last few years. You know, as much as where their success is, though, when I think about it, like Brad, I’ll give you that Rodriguez was sort of bred to be that way and drafted to be that way, to be a to be a great, to be a potential top end, front of the rotation, a guy that’s going to get paid here. They haven’t. I mean, there’s not, I mean, Kramer came in

Nestor Aparicio  07:42

a trade Duquette, I mean, but they still get, but this, they

Luke Jones  07:45

still deserve credit for finishing development of him. I mean,

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Nestor Aparicio  07:48

Tyler, discovering, moving along, drafting, finding, trading, drafting, show me. Bradish, I’ll give you. But other than that, this is, and that’s not a great report card, dude. I mean, just in a general sense, to say this, these people haven’t grown any pitching, and they don’t think about it, and they haven’t done it, and now they’re gonna have to do it somehow quickly in order to survive over the next year. Two, three, somebody’s gonna have to pitch for gunner Anderson and Adley rushman and westburg and these guys, when they’re in their prime,

Luke Jones  08:15

well, they’re gonna have to pitch. We’re gonna have to go sign guys. I mean that that’s just they have to dip into the market that I’ve been clamoring for that, and you and I and Alan talked about it last week when we were kind of doing our state of the Orioles. If you’re not going to draft starting pitching, and they haven’t, then you’ve got to find other ways to do it. You have to trade for it. And what I would like to see, and no, it’s not the seven year, 200 plus million dollar contracts. But there is a middle class tier, you know, the the deal we’re going to see, you know, we’re going to see the Orioles face Nathan of Aldi in this series. He’s a guy that, a few years ago, was the kind of guy I thought was perfect for them to add that was more of an upside play than a Kyle Gibson, right? You know, more of an upside play than a Charlie Morton, and you know, he wasn’t the only one. I mean, I wanted Zach Heflin. Was a guy I thought they might have been interested in a couple years ago when the rays signed him away from Philadelphia, right? So at some point in time, you have to dip your toes into taking a little more of a risk. You know, you suggest the kind of just cobble it together in the way that they have. You know that it’s not like they haven’t had any success stories doing it that way. I mean, Kyle Gibson, what I’m, you know, me, I’m not a pitcher, Win Win guy, but Kyle Gibson had, what, 15 wins for the Orioles a couple years ago. I mean, it’s not like they haven’t had any success signing pitchers like that, but if that’s all you’re doing, then you have a season like this where you do have some some key injuries, then your rotation just completely falls apart. So I mean, they’re gonna have to figure that out. I don’t know the easy answer for that. You know, it’s not as. So you’re just gonna draft pitchers in July, in this draft, and then they’re gonna be ready next year. I mean, you know, so you’ve got to go sign some guys. You’re gonna have to see if you can make a savvy trade or two. You know, there are always deals to be made, but you have to see if you have the wherewithal to do it. So and you have a system that, you know, it isn’t completely terrible, but it’s, but it’s been diminished from guys graduating, and the pipeline that Mike Elias advertised for years and years, you know, that’s dried up compared to where it was and and it always was to it to going to be that way to a degree, because you’re not picking in the top five anymore. So, you know, so through the big in the big picture, sense that that’s obviously there, and that’s not an easy question to to just answer and solve just like that, but it clearly needs to be better. I mean, it needs to be better across the board. We know that. But if we’re going to work under the assumption that this young core is still going to figure things out and still going to be as advertised, right? You know that 2026 they’ll get back on track for them to have the kind of team success that everyone’s going to expect. Got a lot of heavy lifting to do on the pitching front, and that’s even if that just means they have to win the off season to something, sure. Well, yeah, I mean, and that hasn’t been done around here since 1996

Nestor Aparicio  11:26

I mean, like, I’m just being honest with you, they’re gonna that. They’re gonna have to spend a lot of money, take a lot of risk, and I don’t even know who those pictures are or where that is, and I always joke with you guys about dealing cows or dealing something you don’t want to deal, because I can’t talk about gunner and I can’t, but, I mean, there is a point where, like, what do you have to give in a trade market to get someone that’s established where somebody else is going to give up a Corbin burns a year before that, they don’t want to give him two $30 million because that’s sort of the sweet spot for this, right? The sweet spot for this is Eflin. The sweet spot is somebody with a 20 million next year and a 25 after that, who somebody wants to get rid of. I mean, there’s not a lot of that going around, and half of those guys arms have fallen off, which is its own cautionary tale. Sure,

Luke Jones  12:13

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yeah. And that’s why, I mean, that’s why they need to revamp their approach here. I mean, that’s captain obvious statement, right? I mean, again, this isn’t me clamoring for them to sign pitchers to eight year contracts and nine figure kind of a kind of deals. I mean, that’s, that’s not what I’m talking about here. But there are three years 75 right? There are deals of that nature that they have not been willing to make, that are the kind of deals that. And, you know, I just throw three for 75 I mean, even that’s on the higher end of that, you know, there’s three for 45 you know, there’s two years for come up with a number and an opt out after the first year, right? I mean, there are different ways to do this. But paying

Nestor Aparicio  12:56

for Dean Kramer, when you’re paying for that, when you’re buying those kind of pitches you’re buying. You know

Luke Jones  13:01

what? Though, Dean, Dean Kramer’s valuable though, like, if they had five Dean Kramers in this rotation right now, they’d be, don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they’d be the best team in baseball, but they’d be in a heck of a lot better shape than they’re in right now.

Nestor Aparicio  13:14

So Dean Kramer’s a 17 day, $20 million a year pitcher right on, on the open market. I mean, I don’t,

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Luke Jones  13:19

I don’t know if it’s that high, but he’s, but he’s making money. I mean, it’s, it’s money, you know, it’s at least say where Kyle Gibson was a couple years ago,

Nestor Aparicio  13:27

right? I just want to set the expectations that they’re not signing. You know, Seaver and Palmer here in the season, and Koufax, yeah. I mean, like, I Corbin Burns was a hell of a bar around here. We haven’t seen that around here since, like, Messina, you know. So I, you know, I look at that and say, That’s how you want 101 game, you know, that’s how you’re going to get to that point. Is that that kind of pitching, and you could say, well, the Yankees and Dodgers bought it all up, and half of it’s injured, and that’s the industry at this point. And that’s really the weird downside, because you and me and Alan can get together and trade bubble gum cards and talk about the back of cards, and Jim Palmer can come around me and point to all the games everybody played back in the day this point, moving forward when it comes to buying pitching, man, if I’m if I’m money bags, and I’ve got all sorts of, you know, theoretical computer spit outs of what my optimization might be on an investment in Corbin burns say, Man, the cautionary tales of not doing it are there’s a lot more sentiment for the guy who has the money to not do it than there is for the fan base to say, go give the next Dean Kramer three year $60 million contract, and every five days We’ll sweat out whether he can make four innings. You know, that’s a different thing than we’re going to get Corbin burns, I mean, and then you get Corbin burns and he’s hurt. So, you know, the old school in me remembers McGregor and Bucha and Flanagan, like in thinking about those kinds of rotations, I don’t. How you do it in the modern rotation, when strasburg’s arm falls off in the middle, and somehow scherzers And verlanders doesn’t right, and you know, for every school that we wish we had, there’s a, I don’t know, a commensurate Corbin burns that’s broken down. And you’re like, where would you put that money? It is really a tough market to be thinking about pitching. Man, it’s crazy,

Luke Jones  15:24

and every team’s in the same boat in terms of just how that works. Now, other teams have more resources than others. Other teams are better at identifying it than others. I mean, you have a team like the rays. I mean, the rays don’t go out and spend on pitching, but they develop it, right? I mean, I mean, they have guys every year that you’ve never heard of, and you look up and they have a three, four era, and okay, then that guy gets Tommy John surgery and is gone for a year and a half, and then someone else comes in and picks up the slack. I mean, it’s just what the rays have done. It’s It’s forget about ownership or any of their other issues that have held them back from truly being special. But they’ve still had roughly 20 years now where they just have a churn that is uncanny, that they’re just good year in and year out. I mean, it’s rare when the you know, the race have a couple down years here and there, but it’s just an uncanny churn. And, you know, leading the way as they’re pitching. But you know, I think you know, we and we’ve had this discussion, do they need an ace for in the way that Corbin Burns was an ace for one year? No, they don’t need that. But you need enough quality, right? If it’s not a bonafide ace. And look, are there true 30, true number one starters in baseball, in the way that we think about it in a traditional way. No so. But that said, you still need much more quality, much more quality depth than the Oreos have at this point in

Nestor Aparicio  16:52

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time. Out of those 30, I can give you six to eight that aren’t pitching right now, that have a money sunk underneath of the Clayton Kershaw and the, you know, just get on the line of all the top paid pitchers in the game, and how many of them have made their last 20 starts? None.

Luke Jones  17:08

I mean, just go, go and look at the last two World Series champions. I mean, the Dodgers have spent extraordinary money on pitching. They spent money on Otani as a pitcher. To what go and look who has actually pitched for the like. Who was in the Dodgers rotation last October. They didn’t have any like. They didn’t have an ace, right? I mean, it’s where it is. Look at all the money they gave Blake Snell and how he hasn’t pitched this year, right? Two years ago, the Rangers, we think back to avaldi and Jordan Montgomery doing their thing, right? Who was the ace of that staff going into the year? Jacob deGrom, who had Tommy John surgery that year. So even when you do that, even when you have someone to your point, there’s no guarantee that you’re going to keep them healthy and upright and on the on the mound. So that doesn’t mean that you just throw up your hands and give up, but it has to be a multi pronged attack, and that’s where the Orioles have really failed. Here it look, philosophically speaking, I’m fine with Michaelia saying we’re not going to spend first round picks on starting pitchers. And if you even look, go, go, look at the draft, you’ll you’ll be surprised. There aren’t as many pitchers drafted in the first round, as you might think. I mean, you know, I can think back to there was a time where it felt like it was a split and it’s not

Nestor Aparicio  18:27

an industry risk reward. I mean, there’s a bunch of nerds putting science together just saying, take the sure thing. That’s why you don’t take the catcher one and think he’s a catcher somehow, right? Sure, but, but

Luke Jones  18:40

if you’re not going to do that, and that’s fine, then you have to make up up for it in other ways. And you know, for example, they haven’t leaned into the pitching market from the from an international standpoint, as much, right? I mean, for for as much as they have made some hay in that way. I mean, it couldn’t have been any worse, right? I mean, they were non existent, their presence internationally, prior to this regime, but have they leaned and put enough resources into the pitching side? From an international standpoint, you know, I think you can debate and question whether they have so you have that, you have the trade market, you have free agency, right? They’ve just really relied on cobbling, you know, one year deals together and reclamation projects. I mean, Albert Suarez was a great success for them last year. They they’ve done well with guys like that. But if that’s like, if that’s one of your biggest ways of doing it, boy, that’s a really tough way to proceed. And and the guys that you do have, then they better stay healthy, or you’re going to be sunk. And, well, we’ve seen, we’ve seen how the last calendar year has gone, right? I mean, Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched since late July of last year, and Kyle Brad has been on the shelf since last June, right? I mean, now Bradish is, you know, went to Sarasota this weekend, and is going to start throwing a live hitters. I mean, he’s getting getting closer. I’m. Know doesn’t mean he’s going to come back and be Kyle Bradish right away, but he’s getting closer. You think he’s going to pitch in August, and I think he’s got a chance to right? I mean, let’s be clear, this isn’t him coming back to pitch in a pennant race, right? So while I I’ll wholeheartedly disagree with anyone who says there’s no reason for him to pitch this year at all. I say why? That’s arbitrary, right there. I would say there’s no reason to push the envelope in any way. If there’s any question or any doubt, or if you’re saying, Oh, I don’t know if we should be doing this just yet. Then, yeah, no way. But if he’s fully ready and he’s feeling great, and the metrics look good, and he’s, you know, he’s doing his bullpens. He’s throwing live to live hitters. He starts a rehab assignment, and that all looks great. And it gets to be the, I don’t know, third week of August, whatever. You know, I’m just throwing a random number out there. Then there absolutely is value for him to make four starts to close out the year, knock off some rust, go into a, what would hopefully be a normal off season for him, and then he can hit the ground running in mid February next year. So

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Nestor Aparicio  21:07

you look at him and say, we have a piece in our rotation, yeah, maybe not the top end, maybe not but, but a piece that we could come into March, go down to Sarasota, get him, get him where he needs to be. Work on the strength all off season, right? And we’re going to get, we’re going to have what Jacob deGrom was last week. You hope you know, right? I mean, I mean the Rangers waited that out. And I tell you, I swear to God if you and I were in the upper deck when I was getting when you were getting harassed, and I was getting harassed by the Orioles PR team in Arlington went to Graham wasn’t in, I would have said, That’s Chris Davis. Sunk money. You didn’t. I mean, like I would have said, and I feel that way back Corbin burns right now, like I feel like, until he comes back out and looks something like Corbin burns, or even something like Dean Kramer, that’s Chris Davis. Money that is just gone. Gone Bye, bye. Money. 100 million, 200 million, whatever it is on to Grom a year and a half ago, I would have said he ain’t throwing no no hitter. You know, Camden Yards a year and a half from now. But that’s the miracle of Tommy John surgery, and that’s why, oh, it’s Tommy John surgery. Everybody just comes back. That’s why 16 year old kids get it on and on and on, is that there is a point to Jacob deGrom where you could look at it and say, Dude, Kyle Bradish might be doing that next July. Next July, he might be Kyle Bradish again and be ready to go 11 and two in the second half of the year to lead the Orioles to 98 wins and be a game one starter, right? I mean next October, right next, that’s the way, but I don’t know that Elias has a job. Now. You know what I mean like, and that’s as a fan. I think that way, because I’ve been watching this for 50 years, like you, but you trying to piece it together organizationally in your own mind. When these guys get two, $50 million and can’t pitch like burns right now, and thinking, does he really project to be in their rotation next August? Does he really or is he gone next year and back the next year? And even if he is, which version of the Tommy John surgery we get? And that’s something that Mr. Rubenstein, Mr. Moneybags, you have to think about, because whatever picture they give this money to, or they give it to three of them, ask the Dodgers. One of them is going to have this circumstance that we’ve been through with Bradish we went through with means, right? And that’s over with. Now, that experiment ended, and there’s only so much time on these guys and on their arms, and that’s why the braddish thing for him, the acceleration is I need to be able to prove this so I can take the ball next year, so I can get it paid. Because he hasn’t

Luke Jones  23:50

been paid, right? And again, like I said, I think you have to be very smart about it. I am not saying that under any condition that he pitches in August and September. It’s if everything continues to go as smoothly as they’ve said, it’s gone right? I mean, he’s been throwing bullpens. He’s going to start throwing the live hitters now down in Florida, if everything continues to go great over the next, I don’t know, six weeks, seven weeks, or whatever, you know, at some point he’ll begin a rehab assignment. He’ll have a rehab assignment where he will make four starts in that rehab assignment probably, you know, he’ll probably start by being at Delmarva, and then he’ll go up to Aberdeen, and, you know, and kind of make his progression. So if all of that happens and he looks great, the all the analytics look good in terms of his release point and velocity and everything looks the way you want it to look then, yeah, throw them out there in late August and and give them a chance to make four starts. And, you know, cap is pitch count at 70 pitches or something like that. And get them to a point where you feel, hey, this is trending. Well, we feel he’s, quote, fully recovered. And it’s not really that way. I mean, it’s usually, it’s kind of. Like ACLs in football, right? The guy comes back, but it’s really the year after that when, when it really feels,

Nestor Aparicio  25:06

well, you can’t go 95 with movement without feeling it to some degree, right, for all of these guys in or out. But I guess my point on this was the velocity with which you bring them back. In the Rangers case with the Grom, they had so much money in him that everything they can do to just get him back. In the case of Bradish, he’s trying to chase money. The team’s trying to chase jobs and survival. In this case, for the ordinance, for all of them, because they’re a last place baseball team, and he’s a guy with Cy Young potential that needs to get back out on the field to get paid. It’s just, I think it’s managed philosophically, and I don’t mean medically or even in the guy’s head. I just think it’s a different situation when you’ve made the money versus not made the money, also when you’ve spent the money. And in the Bradish case, it’s just sort of like, well, we’d like to get value out of him while he we still have his clock right or whatever. Listen, I want them all to do well. I don’t want anybody’s arms to fall off. But the reality that we sit here day after day, year after year, talking about guys arms falling off, that’s not something we do with Adley ruchman. It’s not something we do with position players and all of this conversation we have is exactly why Elias will draft a pitcher in the first round two weeks.

Luke Jones  26:23

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Yeah, but, but, and that’s fine. I’m I’m okay with them saying we’re not going to take pictures in the first round, but you do need to take pictures as the draft goes on, and it can’t be just waiting till really late, or if you are going to wait till later, then you have a strategy with your your slot money, you know, your bonus money, where you would say, Okay, let’s go sign a couple high school kids that might have been content to go to college, but we signed them over slot, and you get them to sign, you know. So, so there has to be, you have to make up for it in some way, right, in the same way that you say, Okay, I’m not going to be I’m not a team, I’m not a general manager, I’m not an owner who’s going to sign pitchers to two $50 million contracts. That’s fine. I have no problem if you say you’re not going to do that, but you’ve got to then compensate. How are you making up for that? Then That? That has always been the rub for me in terms of how the Orioles proceeded with their pitching. If you’re not going to draft pitching in the first round or even the second round, fine. I think after that, I think you need to be willing to take then, to me, it’s not even a risk. I mean, like third round, fourth round, fifth round. I mean, you draft position players there, there’s no guarantee that they’re making it whatsoever. It’s not like the

Nestor Aparicio  27:40

NFL. So this is where an honest conversation with my Dell and Elias would tell you their philosophy is based on math, right?

Luke Jones  27:47

Sure, sure. And I would say, in fairness to them, and look, it’s very easy to pick on, or the Orioles management, there’s plenty to pick on, right? And there’s plenty to fairly pick on. The last couple drafts, they have taken pictures earlier than they had in the previous ones, where you would go along and you’re like, looking at the list, it’s like, you do know you can draft pictures too, right? You know, that’s what it felt like the first few years. So they have adjusted some. Has it been enough? You know that that’s certainly the big question, but they’re going to have to figure that out. But I think it’s fine to look at Kyle Bradish and say, hey, everything’s trending. Well, if this continues to look good over the next seven weeks, or however much longer it is, if we get him in a position where he can make a few starts in September, then great, and then that can be a nice litmus test for him that can give him some peace of mind and motivation. Then for the off season, that can allow us you know whether we’re talking about if Mike Elias in the current front office remains, or even hypothetically, if it’s someone different, you can look at that and see what Bradish did, and then you that helps you make a more informed decision as far as where he is and how he’s going to fit into your rotation plans. I am totally fine and would agree with the notion that it’s okay to plan for Kyle Bradish to be in your rotation next year. You just can’t. You can’t view it through the lens of planning and expecting that he’s going to be the ace, best version of Kyle Bradish next year. That would be unrealistic. That would be a disservice to your roster building, and that’s really where they messed up. Do you want him to be? Dean Kramer, is what you’re saying. I mean, I think you want to look at him from a baseline perspective, right? You look at any player in terms of what’s the ceiling and what’s the floor, I think, and within reason, understand him being healthy. Let’s say what the because any of these pitchers right the floor is the hurt and they’re not pitching right. I mean, we know that that’s the possibility work for any of these guys. You’re durable until you’re not anymore. Garrett Cole was a great example of that guy that we thought was. Being Kramer, until he really ascended and became the next thing. Right? He was a three or four starter. He was just a guy. He looked like a one, and then and then, and he pitched better than that for a long stretch of time in the same way that Chris Tillman did for a minute. And you know, we can go back through a lot of guys that had a season or two, Steve stone here, you know what I mean, where it’s just extraordinary for a year or two, and then there’s deGrom and guys that have done it for four and five and six years. And I can never project that out after Tommy John surgery, that a guy that wasn’t Strasburg to begin with is going to come back and be Strasburg for the next four years. You know? Yeah, it’s tough at the same time. We do know that. And obviously it’s it. I think, from an Orioles perspective, the John means situation skews things a bit, right? That’s not the that’s not the norm. You know what? What John means went through isn’t the norm of what you see typically with Tommy John in the modern era. That said fully acknowledging, no, it’s not 100% on the return rate. It’s a high percentage. But when you’re talking about guys that have had Tommy John like once, and that’s, you know, they’re going through it, it’s a very high return rate. Now, when you get into situations where guys have had multiple UCL surgeries, and this is where Tyler Wells is going to be very interesting, not that, not that anyone views Tyler wells in the same way that we viewed how Bradish was pitching for the better part of a year and a half before his elbow issue. You know Tyler wells we’re now talking about this is going to be him coming back from a second surgery had one earlier in his career. It’s why he was a Rule five guy, and they were able to get him the return rate when guys start that that they’re cut out their elbows, cut open multiple times, that’s when you look at it a little bit differently, and you say, Okay, what’s this going to look like? So, but we’re going to see how it plays out. And, you know, you mentioned Jacob deGrom. I mean, go and look at the Graham, his average fastball. He’s not throwing quite as hard as he did before. And I think some of that is also deliberate. You know, you look at where he was at the end of his Mets career. I mean, in 2021 and I’m just looking at the numbers right now. The raw numbers, his average fastball below was 99.2 this year with the Rangers. It’s 97.2 so you know how much of that is. Maybe he’s not all the way back in terms of Velo and how much of that is, hey, I can still do this at 97 it might help my arm hold up for a couple more years, understanding he’s a veteran, and I can still be really effective in the same way we’ve talked about Batista. Is Batista’s velocity all the way back? No? Is he going to get back to throwing 102 maybe? Maybe maybe not. I mean, we’ve seen him touch 100 but has Batista been effective this year? Yeah, he has been, and a lot of it has been a split. And, you know, his slider being a little bit more of a factor now. Gabe, well,

Nestor Aparicio  32:52

there is the point where he’s taking the ball three days, four days a week under that. I mean, like, I’m gonna say he’s back, but he’s back doing it, and you should hope that Bradish can be there next may

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Luke Jones  33:04

well. And that’s where you look at someone like Batista. You look at Jacob deGrom. And deGrom, obviously, is an extreme example, because there you’re talking about a guy that at his peak, you know a Hall of Famer. You know an elite Hall of Famer for a peak period of time in his career. But, yeah, you look at that, and that’s where you do have optimism in terms of someone coming back. Now, you got to keep them healthy. You got to keep them right? You you are hoping that mechanically, he’s sound, that he can hold up, and it’s not going to be a case where he pitches for a year, two years, and then has problems again, right? I mean, that’s all there are. There are those stories too. But you know, if you’re looking at this in terms of where the Orioles right now, you know, we’re a month from the trade deadline, they’re going to be sellers. I think that’s obvious at this point in time. Have they played better over the last month? Sure. Had they played well enough? Well since our six game winning streak, Nestor, they’re 11 and 11, right? They’ve kind of settled in over the last month to be a 500 ish kind of team in terms of how they played over the last month, which isn’t going to get you to where you need to go by the trade deadline to justify any any notion or idea that you would buy, or anything like that. So they’re going to sell. But I think you know, for this team, you’re looking at it in terms of, all right, even if we’re not going to make a trade for a pitcher for next year, you know, let’s assume there’s not an Eflin deal to be made, meaning, like what the Orioles did last year, not dealing Zach Eflin now, because I don’t know if he’s going to be tradable, you know, with with a bad back, and likely going To the IL but in terms of All right, let’s look ahead. Let’s think ahead to what we want to do this off season and what we want this team to look like a year from now. I think it’s perfectly fine to look at it and say, All signs point to Kyle Bradish being in that picture. You know, we’ll see about Grayson Rodriguez. He’s throwing bullpens. I mean, I think with Grayson. There’s more uncertainty just because, you know, it’s been this lat issue multiple times there. It’s not like he’s had a surgery to, quote, fix it. Even when he talked to the media a couple weeks ago, you know, he even acknowledged there, they still haven’t been able to quite pinpoint why he continues to have these lad issues. You know, is, it something in his strength and training regimen that he’s doing that he shouldn’t be is it something he needs to do that he’s not, you know? Is it something mechanically so, you know, I don’t want to write them off, but that’s where there’s just that’s a much murkier situation for me, because it’s something that has been a recurring thing, a recurring thing, and you haven’t been able to pinpoint exactly what’s causing it, but you know, for purposes of this exercise, let’s say, okay, radish, next year, 12345, I don’t know, but somewhere in there, Grayson, Rodriguez, we hope somewhere in there. But certainly can’t, can’t pencil them in at one or two.

Nestor Aparicio  36:01

That this is the point in our program. We were like, now, how do they get better next year?

Luke Jones  36:05

But, but what I’m saying is, how much are they going to have to buy?

Nestor Aparicio  36:08

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Is what we’re asking, no question, right?

Luke Jones  36:10

There’s your there’s your upside, right? There’s upside there for you, right? I mean, there’s absolutely a power how much

Nestor Aparicio  36:15

you perceive we need to buy? Sure, because the perception in the off season was, we can get by without burns, we’ll be fine, sure.

Luke Jones  36:21

And we all, and we all thought that look. And you know me, man, I was not of the thought that I was over the moon about throwing two, $50 million at Corbin burns. But I also didn’t say, Well, Charlie Morton’s good enough. You know? I didn’t, I wasn’t, you know that those are, that’s a wide range, right there. Those are two very distinct ways of

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Nestor Aparicio  36:42

thinking. Bradish is going to be backed by the all star break, and they’re going to be five games over 500 without him, because Kramer’s going to ascend to be a number two. I mean, all of this positive thinking, I’m Baltimore positive. But you know, when it comes to pitching, can’t be all that, right? I mean, you can certainly have that. And look, you do need things to go well, like you do need positive outcomes. But, well, that was Bradish two years ago tonight. They won 101 games. That was a positive. He was the race, right? I mean, he especially the second half of kids are coming up. Everybody’s hitting the ball. Richmond’s going to the Hall of Fame. Look at this gunner Anderson guy. My god, he’s a superstar. Like, that’s where we were two years ago,

Luke Jones  37:19

and this year has been the exact opposite of that. Basically, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, other than Jackson holiday has. And let’s be clear. I mean, Jackson holiday is not an MVP yet or anything like that. He’s had a solid, really solid season. You’re really happy with where he is. But other than that, well, I know her. I know that he all started. I know her, Ramon Laureano, I’m not saying literally everything has been bad, but when you look at it, by and large, the things that they needed to go well have not gone well. So they’re all that’s where you look at this and say, you know, how do you proceed? Yes, it’s fine to say Kyle Bradish is going to be in our rotation next year. I’m even okay with you still penciling in bracing Rodriguez, if you want, but it, it can’t be that’s your one two No, no way, no way whatsoever. You can’t view it through that lens. You can put them in your five, but it can’t be that that’s your one two punch at the top of your rotation, because it’s just, it’s a complete unknown right now. I mean, until those guys are back on a major league mound, heck, get them to a rehab assignment, you know, even get me that far before I can start, you know, thinking about it in in those terms. But, you know, they’re going to have to augment, they’re going to have to go out and spend money, and that does, that’s not to say that it can’t be another one year deal with one pitcher that might be out there, but I think you’re going to have to be more realistic and say, We’ve got to go out there and find another guy that, even if he’s not Corbin burns in terms of perception as a true number one, but we’ve got to find someone that, you know, hey, I don’t know what he’s going to ultimately get, but you know, what Dylan sees will be out there, I suppose. I mean, that’s going to be more than the two or three year deal I’m talking but the point is,

Nestor Aparicio  39:09

whoever did it again, he’s cheap, top shelf. We can’t have. He’s too good for us. By the way I’m looking at this. Can I just can I grant? Let me, let me. Let me finish. Dylan, see says a four and a half era right now. So, and I reason to give him that I only threw that. I only threw his name out there because his name’s been out there the last this is where we get into the trading deadline. And I’m looking up in the in the in the real world, in a real season where they’ve really played baseball and needed to win. You mentioned Jackson holiday. He’s hitting 260s on pace to 20 home runs, 24 doubles, drive in 65 runs, fine. He’s 2121 he’s fine. Yeah, but I look at the rest of this. Rushman, 227, Mullins, 213, Urias has been their third best player, just when I look down for like stats across the board, just being blind to it, thinking I didn’t sit and watch the first 60. Five of the first 80 games, the way I have mount castle. 246, cursed at 192, Westberg. 228, cows are 233, O’Neill, 188 Sanchez, a mess mayo. 217, Mateo, 180 these are the guys on their these were the guys they were absolutely counting on. This is the core of their baseball team, outside of Anderson. Pu I mean, where would they be with that? Ryan O’Hearn,

Luke Jones  40:32

8

yeah, well, they last place. I mean, that’s why I’ve said, That’s why early in the season, when you were talking over and over about the pitching, which, by the way, I never disagreed with you on, but that’s why I was saying their offense hasn’t been good. So, yeah, I mean, you look at it, and, you know, even if you look at it beyond batting average, if you look at O P S, I mean, loriano has the highest o p s on the team

Nestor Aparicio  40:57

over come on. I mean, I pass batting they don’t walk. Who walks on this team? You know? I mean, no, but I was saying ops,

Luke Jones  41:04

which is on base plus slugging percentage. It’s a much more complete picture than just batting average. Bucha, which makes it even worse. It’s, it’s not much better, right? I mean, it’s, you know, it’s lorianna has been good. O’herns been good. Cowser has been good since he’s been back. You know, in terms of, he’s got an 803, ops, you know, he’s hit for power. He’s got, yeah, but it’s not like they hit a bunch of solo

Nestor Aparicio  41:25

home runs and still lost. I mean, the story of them is, when they get guys on base, they don’t lock them in. That’s really the story of all of that. Off 12 left, left on base. You know, two of 14 with runners in scoring position. You know, they just, even when they they managed to get on base, they it’s, let’s take a break. It’s Fourth of July. I want you to be happy. I want you to go eat Max pizza. You get senioritis, right, don’t you?

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Luke Jones  41:54

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, we’ve got what we’ve got a month to the trade deadline. We’ve got three weeks until the start of training camp. I mean, this is my time to up. I’ll be getting away right around the Fourth of July for a week, and

Nestor Aparicio  42:06

I have last place fatigue is what I have. Yeah, well,

Luke Jones  42:10

I mean, look, as I said, are they playing? Have they played better over the last month? They absolutely have. You know, over the last five weeks, they’ve been a much more representative team. Has that been good enough to get them back in it? In it? No. I mean, it comes down to this. And I said this, and then I kind of went off on a on a tangent. This team started nine and 11, and then the stretch that buried them was from the Easter game, where they lost, what, 24 to two through the first game of that double header against the Red Sox in Memorial Day weekend. They went seven and 23 over that 30 game stretch, seven and 23 like they were the Rockies for three and a half weeks, and that’s what completely buried them, you know, since then, they’ve gone, you know, they went nine and two and then 11 and 11 since then. I’m not saying it’s great, you know, it’s still, it’s still very middling and mediocre, but, yeah, but

Nestor Aparicio  43:08

8

I gotta look up at the end of the year, and I gotta do better than all those batting average I just gave you the splits. If it’s that bad at the end of the year, I don’t know what you have in athlete rushman for opening day next year. I don’t know what you have in counting on Jordan westburg or counting on cows, or to hit 230 and play some of the time, and all of them knowing they can’t hit left handed pitching, and having the rest of the world know they can’t hit

Luke Jones  43:33

left handed but here’s the thing, the pitching is. The pitching needs major surgery, right? I mean, especially the starting, and it’s going to be the bullpen too, because I’m assuming that we’re going to see them try to move Dominguez, you know, Gregory, Soto, maybe Kittredge, you know, we’re going to see how that plays out. But I would assume they’re going to try to move a couple

Nestor Aparicio  43:55

of those guys. Batista is

Luke Jones  43:56

untouchable for you. I mean, untouchable, no, but boy, it’s got to be something, it’s got to be something really good. Like, really good. Like, okay, I make me an offer. I can’t refuse. The only

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Nestor Aparicio  44:07

thing you’re going to get for him is pitching, because you’re not giving him up for gunner Henderson. You’re not getting you don’t need a player. You know what? I mean, the only thing you would so I feels to me like he’s untouchable in that way,

Luke Jones  44:18

probably, probably, but, you know, it’s funny, and I know I alluded to this, talking about Eflin and Sugano, but what’s funny is, you kind of look at some of the guys on this roster, you know, who I think is a very sneaky, underrated trade ship, if they were, if they’re willing to do it, I think Ramona Rheas could get them something decent. You know, he’s got one more year of Team control. And don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying you’re gonna get a number one start or anything like that, but if you have a contender who loses their third baseman at some point the next three and a half weeks, you could do a lot worse than Ramona RIAs playing for you. Now, the flip side of that is the Orioles would like to have. Well, next year’s team continuing in his role as your fifth infielder, right? And, you know, can play third, can play first, can play second, and if he’s got to play for two weeks, he doesn’t suck. He’s fine. So, but in terms of, like, some of their trade shifts, because we’ve talked about this, like, look at this point, Cedric Mullins has struggled so much since his start to the season. I’m not sure you’re going to get a whole lot for him, right? I mean, he’s just, he’s not playing all that well. And don’t get me wrong, it doesn’t mean I won’t trade. I don’t know where the fit for him is on a contender either. I mean, I could tell you, you know, a team like the Phillies could use them, because, you know, center fields kind of been a, you know, they played Brandon Marsh there, but, you know, his offense is kind of up and down. They played some other guys there that are good glove guys, but can’t offense up and down. That’s where, but that’s the but the idea is, you know, a team’s gonna take a whirl on if they can get them on a heater for six weeks at the end of the season, and

Nestor Aparicio  45:57

anybody that would leave here to go somewhere where they can win. That is energizing, unto itself, absolutely. It makes players better to go into a penny if they’re a good player, yeah,

Luke Jones  46:08

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but, but we know how this is I mean, anyone who’s not, you know, anyone who’s on an expiring deal, down, basically, basically, you know, and obviously the the young core, you know, I’m not trading holiday. I’m not trading gunner, you know,

Nestor Aparicio  46:25

Adley. I mean, you could say Adley rutschman. Adley rutschman value is down right now. You’re not trading him, because you’re not, you wouldn’t get good, the kind of value you would expect to get, right? And he’s heard anyway at the moment. So, and that’s part of it, like so much, expecting the trading deadline to save their ass. I’m expecting, I mean, I don’t, I don’t expect any blockbusters. We don’t have any peace removing for anything huge. So for that, there’s no cavalry coming from the trading deadline. There just isn’t the cavalry to your points coming with money bags, opening this checkbook in the off season. And to some degree, the cavalry is westburg, Mayo, the curse that watchmen these guys have to play

Luke Jones  47:06

right? No question and and look, that’s part of you know, we were talking about the pitching and how much work they’re gonna have to do with their rotation and probably their bullpen, yes, their bullpen, because they’ve got some guys on expiring deals anyway, so you’re going to have to have to make do some work there. When it comes to the position side and the hitting, I’m going to borrow a phrase from our old friend Brian Billick here. I think you’re going to have to kind of take a leap of faith that the young core is going to rebound next year. Because if you’re talking about having it, and that’s not to say you can’t add a hitter, you can’t make a move or two, but if you’re suddenly saying, Oh, well, we don’t trust those guys, so we’re gonna have to go get three more bats, it’s like you’re not gonna be able to do all that in one off season, even if you open up the check if you need a heart transplant here, you know you’ve already done that with the manager throwing him over and you said that that didn’t matter. You’re gonna have to count on some of these young guys to rebound or take the next step next year. If you’re looking for your scenario to get yourself back in contention, you’re going to have to rely on some of that, because you’re not going to be able to, quote, fix that much stuff in one off season. So look, I’m not saying that’s guaranteed to happen, but that’s where they are. That’s

Nestor Aparicio  48:20

why this is gonna hit 30 home runs in Norfolk before it’s all over.

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Speaker 1  48:23

And you know what? Hey, Sam, Well, besides winning rookie of the year next year, that could be part of that equation, right? I mean, I’m not saying it’s impossible. Kids got a special bat, you know, they’re still working on developing him as a catcher, but I expect we’re going to see him before the year’s out. I’m working him out in the Puerto Rican Venezuelan off season, Arizona fall league as a first

Luke Jones  48:45

baseman, everyone says the bat special. I said that

Nestor Aparicio  48:48

about Mayo too. And I’m still waiting for that. I’m waiting

Luke Jones  48:52

8

he’s looking better, you know, keep playing him. Please. Had another RBI single on Sunday. Keep playing him.

Nestor Aparicio  48:59

I want you to go away and eat pizza. Willing to do that? And I want you to, that’s about it. And I want you to just be one with the ocean and your family so and America on the fair to keep my nieces out of trouble. I’m going to be one with the beer garden and crush garden at the Heritage fair this weekend. I’ve got great stuff on the air this week. It’s not going to be all baseball and bitching about the Orioles. I promise we did a great show. Readers, crap House last week we had a lot of fun. Our friends at the Maryland lottery gave us back to the future scratch offs, and we had one winner from Dundalk, actually, all the way out in Reisterstown. We’re all in this together, Baltimore County. We also had a nice chat with Izzy Patoka, as well as hope Otto and Chef Brandon out in in readers, so we’ll be there next Tuesday. We’re going to be at deepest walleyes in Canton. I’m really looking forward to that. It’s going to be a morning thing. Thursday the 10th. We’re going to be out of Costas and Timonium. That’s an afternoon thing. I just found out. Luke Jones, when I was a young man, there was a man on 105 point. Seven WQs are Steve Rouse. He’s going to be our guest on so that’s my best Steve Rouse, I listen. I don’t know Steve at all. Like through radio things like people get like, I’ve never sat down and talked to Steve Rouse. I don’t know that I’ve ever talked to him longer than seeing him at a charity event and saying, Hi, you’re Steve Rouse. I’m Ness Nice to meet you. But Steve Rouse, the real Steve Rouse, is coming out. Apparently he’s raising chickens inside. I don’t know what the hell he’s doing up in Norfolk County, but I’m bringing him. He said, I want to check out the new Costa centimonium. So Steve rouse gonna come out next week, and I’m looking forward. That’s a big week, Fourth of July America, save democracy in all that there are no kings in this country. I want to make that very, very clear. And it’s another weird week in America and for the Baltimore Orioles, but the Happy Fourth of July to everybody celebrating. Come see me in the beer garden down in Dundalk, and we’ll be watching Oriole baseball all week. He is Luke, I am Nestor. We are W N st am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore positive. Better pitching. You.