We’re pretty sure the Baltimore Orioles are gonna hit the ball this season but as Opening Day in Toronto looms this week, Luke Jones and Nestor convened at their favorite pizza joint in Essex to try to sort out Felix Bautista, a depleted bullpen and who will go to the the bump as the Birds prepare to fly north for the opener.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ preparations for Opening Day, expressing cautious optimism despite concerns about the team’s bullpen and starting rotation. They highlighted the loss of key pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez and Andrew Kittredge, and the uncertainty surrounding Felix Bautista’s readiness due to Tommy John surgery. Jones emphasized the importance of a reliable bullpen, noting the potential impact of injuries on the starting rotation. They also praised the team’s young position talent, including Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but expressed concerns about the bullpen’s depth and the team’s ability to compete in a strong AL East division.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles, bullpen, Felix Bautista, Tommy John surgery, Grayson Rodriguez, Andrew Kittredge, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, starting rotation, relief pitching, Opening Day, Toronto, Maryland Lottery, Pizza John’s.
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:00
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We are Baltimore, positive. We are positively here at Pizza John’s read Luke’s hat says pizza John’s on. It’s all brought to you by friends at the Maryland lottery. I have the magic eight scratch offs. These have been the lucky magic eight. I don’t know if it’s gonna be lucky once we get our way up to Toronto next week, I’ve checked, let me check the current weather forecast here for Luke and I, by the way, beautiful day here in Essex today. I mean, 51 sunny, A little gusty right now. But then I look up Toronto, Canada, Ontario, and it’s good thing to have a dome. I was just gonna say that we’re gonna land on Wednesday night. It’s going to be 29 degrees. Thursday’s gonna get the forecast has changed. It’s gotten nicer 4044, degrees and partly sunny on Thursday. So me, you can almost play baseball net. And then Friday, because the warm, all the snowflakes are gone on the little thing, it’s 44 and rainy on Friday, and it’s the lows 33 so it’s not going to snow. We go to Canada. We’re not going to get any snow. What? I’m disappointed. I got my guy. We got my mittens out. You know, I’m fixing my jacket up. Luke Jones and I are headed for opening day, all real baseball. One of us is a media member. I’ll let you guess which one is. And we’re gonna be going north of the board of so baseball for you. We’re gonna have a shining here. My Pete’s, John’s. I’ve worn my Tony Gwynn Jersey because I want to get into the spirit of things here. Where are you? You’re Are you bullish on the Orioles? Or you’re like, are you feeling this momentum? You’ve been underwhelmed by the Ross you, by the way, the guy with the press pass is the one that hates the team. I’ve been okay with the team this year, but go ahead,
Luke Jones 01:49
I’m overall still optimistic about this club. I mean, there’s still so much talent, there’s still so much position talent. I think it’s important to continue to recognize that amidst problems or acknowledging that it was an underwhelming offseason. I think if I had told you in mid October what their off season would look like, you absolutely would have been underwhelmed by
Nestor Aparicio 02:09
it. Now, there would be nothing that would get me excited right, right, from a competitive standpoint, but from a money standpoint, I’m not arguing what they did. I’m not
Luke Jones 02:17
and that’s fair. That’s fine. That said Now, having gone through most of spring training, and as people are listening to you and I converse at the at the moment, perhaps some of these roster questions come into sharper focus. It’s been a rough spring. I mean, let’s face it, we’re talking about a starter, starting rotation where the upside was already in question, and you’ve since lost Grayson Rodriguez, at least for the beginning of the season, and on the bullpen side, I mean, Andrew Kittredge was signed to be a seventh slash eighth inning guy to kind of fix fit in there with Sir Anthony Dominguez and Yan your Cano, and understanding that Felix Bautista, at least early On, wasn’t going to be back to back, going multiple innings, expecting anything like what he was in 2023 but you’ve since lost Kittredge now for at least the first couple months of the season. I mean, they’ve already confirmed that June’s probably the best case scenario for his return, and we’re still kind of waiting and seeing whether Felix Batista is really going to be on the opening day roster. There’s been enough conjecture, enough looking at the gap in between some of these spring appearances. I mean, you’re talking to last week of spring training, and he’s, you know, going into the final weekend a week between appearance. It was crazy to
Nestor Aparicio 03:38
think he was going to be throwing 99 by now? Well, see,
Luke Jones 03:41
I disagree. I disagree. Not not so much about the 99 thing. But we’re not talking about an expedited, expedited rehab here. I mean, this is someone who is
Nestor Aparicio 03:51
what you hope it takes John to these other guys. Mean,
Luke Jones 03:55
understood, right? Yeah, at the same time, let’s also not treat Tommy John surgery like it’s 1991 either it’s a extremely high return rate, extremely high success rate. Now, that’s why they have it Right exactly. Now, there’s a wide range of outcomes of expecting Felix Batista to pick up exactly where he let left off in mid August of 2023 that wasn’t realistic. However, I’m not going to lie to you if he starts the year on the i l, I’ve got some concerns here that go beyond, oh, you’re just not going to pitch him back to back days. Or he’s not throwing 99 but he’s throwing 97 in other words, you’re babying him. Now that’s concerns where I that’s where it starts to feel a little more like, heaven forbid that it’s another John means, as you alluded to. And now I am not saying that with any sense of hearing that from the team or anything like that. I’m just looking at this from a practical standpoint of when you hear Tommy John surgery in this day and age, putting aside, you know, some some innovate innovations that have been made. You know, internal brace is something that hypothetically. Coviddites, the recovery process. It’s still something that you view through the lens of 12 up to 18 months. He’s much more towards 18 months at this point in time. So, and I say this as someone who sat in the Orioles press box three hours before game one of the wild card series last October 1, and he threw a bullpen. Now, was it suggesting that he was ready to pitch in a major league game at that point in time? But you’re thinking at that point, six months out from the start of the seat of 2025 no real reason, the barring a setback, something like that. No real reason. There’s been no setback to shut him down, though, right? I mean not to shut him down. And Brandon Hyde even says slowing down, right, right? And that’s where there’s just some it’s it’s foggy right. On Thursday, speaking of reporters in Sarasota, he was asked point blank if he was confident he was going to be on the 26 man roster for opening day. And you know, at the very least, they’re being very cautious, very evasive of how they’re speaking about it. Now we know this. We’ve talked about this. Well, when they do that, they have no confidence. Well, either that or they’re just being kind of evasive for the sake of being evasive, because all teams now across sports are are almost defended by questions about your team. That might not be the most positive update or the most positive. That’s
Nestor Aparicio 06:22
why they threw me out well, but there’s
Luke Jones 06:25
definitely some question here. And again, if this were, for example, contrast this to Kyle radish or Tyler Wells, who both had Tommy John in the first half of last season. We’re now talking in a best case scenario, maybe they can contribute at some point after the all star break. That’s that’s a 12 to 14 month time frame if we’re talking about Batista now, at roughly 17 months since Tommy John surgery, and they’re still slow playing it to this degree. It doesn’t mean there’s an injury per se, or that he’s not going to pitch, or that he’s not even going to pitch well at some point, but it does make me a little more concerned. Can he get guys out next week? Important and again? Right? That doesn’t, let’s be clear, elbows, elbow injury or not, Felix Batista had a historic 2023 it’s possible that he never does exactly that again, in the same way that when Zach Britton went a whole year without blowing a save, he never did that again in his career, but there’s plenty of reason to expect him to still pitch at a high impact level. Oh, is he 2629 29 right? I mean, he’s young, he’s a little older. He’s a late bloomer. Remember, he was a long time. He’s dan Duquette signing. You know, originally, he was in their system quite a while, but, but I just look at it through the lens of, you know, if he’s not, even if you’re, if you’re going to hold him back from being ready for opening day, you know, that’s different than saying, Hey, we’re not going to pitch him back to back days. We’re not going to let him really worry about right? So, yeah, so you’re ready, they’re worried about him. We should be worried. You know, whether they’re worried or whether it is truly just an abundance of caution, you know, that makes me have a little more concern there, because then you’re talking Okay, if he’s not quite ready, and let’s say, you know, let’s say, for right first argument sake, that he is, but he can’t go back to back days. He’s not going to go multiple winnings. We know that, right? And I agree with that. That’s smart, at least early in the year. You shouldn’t be pushing him like that. But even with that, the question becomes, all right, who’s getting the ball in the ninth inning for the second night? If it’s back to back nights, Batista gets the Save, and then they have a safe situation the following night, Sir Anthony Dominguez can’t stop giving up home runs, something that we saw last year. And I’m a you know me. I’m a Dominguez guy, but go look at his spring lines. And I know that grapefruit league performance,
Nestor Aparicio 08:42
no guy until I was in the world bullpen guys until we’re not. I mean, it does feel like such a short lived sort of, you know, would every Brad Brock and every exact, you know, any guys, right? It is a three to five years, sort of like it’s not an eternity for any of these guys to be throwing 99 and to get people out. Kirk Kimball will be the greatest example of that. Dominguez was given away by the Phillies last year. Orioles pick them up for $8 million and they may regret that by May 31 Yeah,
Luke Jones 09:11
I mean, and to be clear, meet Dominguez was good for the first seven weeks, where he kind of was thrown into that role. And it’s not like he had an awful September but the one thing that made you take pause about him was his propensity for giving up the long ball. Well, in four of his first six spring outings, he gave up a home run. He’s been scored in all but one of his spring outings. I’m not saying that you need to have a 2.1 spring era. Let’s be very clear. Who are you talking to here? You know me. You want to hit your spots. You want to be healthy? Yeah, it’s not enough to see. It’s not enough to it’s not too much to expect. Hey, let’s see a couple clean outings here. And even Thursday night he gives up a home run Anthony bolpe on a hanging slider, you know, as Jim Palmer himself described it. So you kind of look at this, and let me be clear, and look, we could go roll back. Tape from, you know, if tape existed anymore, the mp three of our conversation from late February, I was bullish and optimistic about this bullpen, assuming Batista was, at the very least, no question about his status for opening day, regardless of what was. In addition, you had rich, right? I was assuming a full off season, and being in the Orioles pitching program was going to help Dominguez, and it still could. Maybe he is ironing out the kinks again. I’m not I’m not saying they’re doomed right now, but I’d be lying to you if I looked at this bullpen on the back of a rotation that, let’s face it, doesn’t have a whole lot of upside. You can get away with one or the other being shaky, but you don’t want to start dumping games in April and May that are winnable games, because your pitching just is not inspiring a lot of confidence. That’s a way different argument than Oh, having a number one starter for game one of a postseason series, which you and I talked about that a lot. They’ve got a lot of time to figure that out, and they have assets to figure that out at some point between now and the trade deadline, but Kelly just brought us pizza. Thank you, Kelly. Yeah, it was tough for me not to break, break my strike. Hell yeah, talking here,
Nestor Aparicio 11:09
but yeah, absolutely, I would say this on the bullpen. Thing for me is it’s such an emerging thing, and it’s so fleeting that one minute you believe in a guy, the next minute. You don’t that’s true to me. That’s that’s bullpen, that’s baseball, that’s kind of like the way it’s always been, in regard to us looking at it, saying, well, it might not be very good right now. I mean, this is where the Yeti or Coronas come in. Yeah, we were talking about Batista like this three years ago, right? Like Batista was kind of, kind of an unknown three years ago at this time. My point is that is bullpen, yeah, that there’s somebody unknown, like canoe or Batista, that’s going to be better. And then there’s the, oh, man, we gave all this money to kit rich, and we’re sitting around, it’s August, and like, he’s not here, but it’s good thing that kid came up, and it’s a good thing Elias sign that Albert Suarez, yeah, you know, there’s always, might be. He might end up being part of the little bit of that going on. I remember going to training camp with Jamie Moyer when he was a washed up relief pitcher, fourth organization he pitched another 15 years. So it does happen. It does it does. I just gonna happen which
Luke Jones 12:16
feels like there’s a little bit too much of that going on when you consider where this team should be, back to back playoff appearances, they’ve won what? 210 games, or, you know, 200 games over the last two years, or no, 191 games over the last two years. Sorry, mass off there, 10102, or 202,
Nestor Aparicio 12:36
anyway, I had a signal to sue on video. I went, like, she’s worked here so long sue that I still like this. I go, Yeah, she knows. So here we got plates. There we go to a fork and knife, because I because nobody eats pizza, John’s with a fork in a knife. Do they, I mean, is it they’re gonna throw me out of Essex to kick my ass straight out? I think it’s fair when it’s right out
Luke Jones 12:59
of the oven, because it’s hot, all right? Well, but once I get to the second piece, yeah, I want
Nestor Aparicio 13:03
to say this. It’s Thank you, Sue suits. How long you worked here? So 26 years longer Luke’s been alive this pizza here, I never, I have never had this before. This is the meat sauce, right? And and the pepperoni. Why meat sauce and pepperoni? Luke, why? Because it’s the best. This is what he loves. So, I mean, let’s face it, pizza John’s pepperoni is pretty well known. Well, I’m down some of this right now. Meat sauce is always my dad’s favorite, and so I just combined this. So my wife text me now says, What are you doing? Eating pizza? Talking baseball in Essex is what I’m doing. My thanks to sue. Elbows up. Come see Sue. Come see everybody. Kelly, everybody here. Pizza John’s is awesome. Why Mike you up in the next segment? Because, breath done. Morning. Part of me today. So I need to talk to the people to really make things happen around here. I pizza John’s. We’re in Essex. Is all brought to you by the Maryland lottery. Have the magic eight ball scratch offs giveaway. We’re eating Luke’s pizza today. Because, I mean, if you ordered anchovies, I’d eat the damn it. I mean, there’s you put everything, there’s nothing. You’re gonna put on a pizza, pizza Johns, and I’m not gonna eat. I even made you eat the pineapple. And you told me you liked it last time, but I didn’t find I know you didn’t like it. When you say it’s fine, it’s fine, is what you say about I’m not gonna ravens, offensive line. When it’s not good enough. It’s fine. It’s what you say about
Luke Jones 14:22
it. And can I go back? Because my math teachers, I want to eat pizza, but go ahead, I was trying to do the math, and the pizza got me all I didn’t come around pizza. 192 wins over the last two years. That’s, that was the total I was going for. But, yeah, I just, and you know, I’ve been a mike Elias guy. For the most part. I’ve stood up for him more so at times, when others, he’s
Nestor Aparicio 14:49
been nicer to me than anybody in the organization. To do with being nice, it
Luke Jones 14:53
just has to do with looking at his body of work. I think he’s done a good body of work. I think the health, the overall state of this sort. Organization is in such a better place baseball operations while you’re gonna at any point in my life, they need relief pitching this summer, when they need to start, you say that, however, okay, two summers ago, I remember having the conversation with you even before Felix Batista got hurt, that I wasn’t sure that they had enough bullpen arms, and Felix Batista got hurt, and Fujinami, the guy that was their trade deadline acquisition, wasn’t even on the postseason roster, and last year, talking about it throughout even going back before the season, I was skeptical about Craig Kimbrel doing the kind of heavy lifting that the Orioles expected him to do to replace Felix Bautista, and he didn’t even make it through the year with the team. So I think if there’s one area even more so than just spending money and signing free agents to big contracts. And I, I understand angst and clamoring for that given where this team is at this point in time and and seeing Corbin burns and Anthony Santander walk out the door this off season. But if there’s one area that that I feel they’ve left themselves a little too short at times. It’s been the bullpen now has that shown up in a way that they’ve lost playoff games directly because of their bullpen? No, but I think if you’re trying to project it out and understanding what it takes to not just make the postseason, but then make a deep run in the postseason, you need four or five, six guys that you can really count on throwing into a game in just about any situation, and it can’t be Brian Baker. I don’t write, and that’s my thing. We’re talking about Brian Baker and guys like that
Nestor Aparicio 16:31
point that they keep right. Guys tries the third, fourth, fifth, guys in the bullpen. They don’t send them out to Rochester, Rochester north. They bring them in, sure, and they pitch, and sometimes they emerge, and sometimes they fail, right? Yeah, even if they’re successful, they’re going to fail, because that’s the part of you coming to 10 games you’re going to be good, seven of them bad, one of them and Okay, two of right, even if you’re good, right? So I think in the totality, my concern is how many innings the bullpen is going to need when they’re signing starters that are, I mean, Charlie Morton’s not going to make the sixth inning ever, ever right on those nights, he’s a he’s a four and 2/3, five and a third guy most of the time. Yeah, so they but that’s most, that’s most teams, and that’s why they collected the bullpen. That’s why you need and this thought that the Phillies had the great bullpen last year, so good that they dealt two of their guys to us. That the notion of that is how deep you think you are right now. So what is the bullpen right now? As you see, what is well, and
Luke Jones 17:35
that’s where you kind of look at it and say, oh, okay, is Felix Batista going to be on the opening day roster. If he’s not, I’ll even, I’ll even buy okay if he needs another week and you want to throw him at Norfolk for two more outings, just because okay. But what does that mean? Then where is Sir Anthony Dominguez at this point in time, not in terms of him not making the roster, but in terms of how trustworthy he is. Who else is going to get the ball in the ninth inning? I mean, Andrew kittridge was in that group. Uh, Jen, your canoe can be in that group. We haven’t seen him look too good in ninth inning opportunities the last couple years. And that’s, and that’s not even being a, not a knock on him.
Nestor Aparicio 18:13
Not having Rodriguez is also going to cost him seven to 10 innings every week. That they’re gonna have to find in other places too, right? I mean,
Luke Jones 18:21
potentially, sure. I mean, again, it all adds up. But look, I can deal with not having as much upside in the starting rotation in April, May and June, with the idea that you’re going to evaluate and you have resources to upgrade at the trade deadline, as they did last year with Zach Eflin. I
Nestor Aparicio 18:39
love how you say that they have resources. They do. You have never had that. They have
Luke Jones 18:43
prospects, and you would hope some more money they can add to the payroll, if it’s that kind of your beards
Nestor Aparicio 18:49
grade right now, since before you shave, they haven’t had they had they haven’t had resources, yeah, whatever the financial trade, they have had none of that for 30 years, right? They have both of that. Now, allegedly, I mean, you and I can argue about money bags. Is money all day long, so he spends it, but the thought is, when you get pop off to me last week, well, ten million for elite picture, they better be able to afford that. I just know we’ve never done that in 30 years here, and I know half the teams in baseball don’t do that ever. So the notion that going out and just signing 10 million relief pitchers and Lee pitchers in late March, early April, that is that there aren’t a whole lot of teams to do that there. They have to be, have to be a contending team to think about doing that. Let’s start with that, right? Yeah, and they’ve never done that as an organization. So I do want to, and this would be for Katie Griggs and for all of I want to see them do things they’ve never done before as an ownership. I don’t mean make a bobble head out of an owner. I mean, like, what has changed here, other than $5 beers in the Birdland menu? And where are those changes? And that’s what I’m going to be writing to Katie Griggs and David Rubenstein and all of like. Okay, what’s different about this, sure, other than the fact that Peter’s dead and Rubenstein sitting there, if they’re not going to spend the money, if they’re not going to use the resources, if they’re not going to do that, bring back john Angelos again, you know? Well,
Luke Jones 20:12
you know, to bring it back to your question, though, about the bullpen. I mean, it’s, you know, how is it going to look early on and and let me be clear. I’m not saying the bullpen stinks top to bottom. That’s not at all what I’m saying here. But you need guys that slide into the proper roles, whether you’re talking about, you know what Keegan Aiken was last year, which was more of low leverage and medium, which he pitched really well in that role, but just about every time they threw him into higher leverage, he really struggled. He’s in that role for the reason Exactly, exactly. So you have guys like that. I mean, I’ve, I’ve talked about Gregory Soto as someone that’s a wild card. For me. He’s even more of a wild card now, where you know if he pitches, well, he might be a guy that’s closing some games for them, depending on who’s due up in the ninth inning, for whoever they’re facing, if it’s a couple left handed batters, especially, he might get the ball there and and, and, in fairness, Drew French talked on the mass and telecast on Thursday night, you know, one of the last Spring Games and and said that Soto’s had a really nice spring. He said that CNL Perez had a really nice spring. So it this is not me saying that this bullpen is a disaster. But if you’re coupling this bullpen, as it’s presently constructed, with some injuries, with Kittredge, with the unknown of Felix Batista, and what exactly he’s going to be ready for. And then you pair that with a starting rotation that doesn’t have a horse in Corbin burns, or everyone dreaming of the horse that Grayson Rodriguez could become one day. Right? Then you look at it, and it feels a little wanting. It leaves you feeling a little short and
Nestor Aparicio 21:45
well, they don’t feel as good as they were last May, when I said to my wife, this is the best team they’ve ever had, I said that in late May. I’m like, this is as thick as it gets for having a number one starter, which they had at this time last year. They had a real guy. Rodriguez was a thing means was coming back. Radish was coming radish was pitch well, at eight, star, right, right? So like, where they were at Memorial Day, Preakness Memorial Day last year. I look at this and say, What Schuler said? They’re gonna hit the
Luke Jones 22:15
ball. Yeah, they’re gonna hit and then, and I’m glad you said that. I’m glad you transitioned that, because as much negativity as I just spewed. And let me be clear, I was not laying out an argument for why the Orioles are only going to win 74 games. Far from it. They do have an offense to be excited about, and they do have so much young position talent that has not only made it when you’re talking about gunner Henderson, when you’re talking about Adley rutschman over his first two calendar years in the major leagues. Now, whatever the second half of last year was is still something that lingers in the back of your mind, even with him having a good spring, but it’s a two time All Star catcher. He did something right over his first two years in the major leagues. You have Jordan westburg, who in his first full year in the major leagues, made it to an all star game, you have Colton cowser, who shook off a really rough 2023, more than a cup of coffee. I mean, he had 70 plate appearances, and it looked a lot like what COVID Mayo looked like last August. He was second in the in the league in Rookie of the Year voting. So you have all of those pieces, and then throw Jackson holiday into the mix, who, by all counts, has had a good spring, and I think there’s a lot of optimism he’s not going back. He’s here for God, I’d be surprised. I mean, I’d be really surprised at this. I mean, with Gunner Henderson probably not going to be ready for opening day, there’s, there’s a decent chance Jackson holiday might be the starting shortstop for the first week of the season. So team are we fielding here this week? What the hell is going on, right? Right? I mean, you know the gunner thing, I I’m not nearly as worried about that as you know some of my angst and just questions about Batista right now, because, you know you’re just, you’re being cautious with a rib cage issue. I mean, you don’t want that to linger that he’s dealing with that in June and July, so, but you talk about holiday, you talk about Heston, kerstad, Kobe mayo, you know, made some headlines with his demotion, and, you know, comments that I think, Okay,
Nestor Aparicio 24:12
what? Let’s, let’s talk about that a little bit, because he is a guy that they think is going to hit 200 home runs here before they have to pay him, like, literally, right? I mean, that’s what they believe. I
Luke Jones 24:24
would think so. If not, I think they would have traded him already. But I think he’s got to hit him here. He he represents so much of where the Orioles are right now from a they’re kind of caught in this in between phase. And what I mean by that is not that they haven’t played at a very high level the last couple years, but we all famously remember when they traded Trey Mancini and they traded Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline three years ago, at this point in time, and Mike Elias kind of said, Look, we had to make these moves, but it’s lift off from here. A lot of people interpreted that. As the Orioles will be spending a lot of money in free agency and signing these big contracts and all that that hasn’t come to fruition yet, and we can certainly debate the merits of that long term. But you know, at that point in time, it was a clear signal that the rebuild phase of whatever the Orioles were was coming to an end. So at the same time, you have veteran players who have since approached free agency or left or traded in the case of Austin Hayes, and you know, like last year, at this time, we were talking a lot about Colton cowser And how he was going to fit in, because they still had their three incumbents of Mullins, Hayes and Santander.
Nestor Aparicio 25:42
Well, it’s changed a lot with Mullins and Hayes, right? I mean, just 12 months, but remember
Luke Jones 25:47
what happened Austin Hayes gets hurt the first week or 10 days of the season. Cows are stepped into an everyday role, and he crushed it. He was their best player for three weeks. And Austin Hayes never got his job back, really. I mean, he started some games, and then, you know, they they traded him at the trade deadline. So I think with Kobe mayo, let me be clear, I completely understood the frustration he expressed. I don’t think he meant it in any kind of a malicious way toward the organization. I think it was a very human response to being disappointed, to be an option, but he acknowledged it didn’t go well. When he was caught up last year, he struck out roughly half of his plate appearances. This wasn’t going four for 40. With some rough luck, he was struggling to make contact. And we saw some of that with cows, or we saw that with two years ago. We saw that with Jackson holiday early last year, especially sometimes that happens. So
Nestor Aparicio 26:41
it would. It’s really rushman, all that stuff. It’s really easy, in a VAC, in a vacuum, to say it’s hard to play major league base. It is. I saw Adam Jones tweet that the other day, remembers to me
Luke Jones 26:51
three years ago or four years ago, they could just insert someone in the lineup because you just had veteran placeholders at that point anyway, and you just said, Hey, Adley, go play. Our expectations aren’t anything right now. Go play. And Ali Rutherford struggled his first month, and then he figured it out. But the Orioles are in a position now where they’re no longer a rebuilding team. They have high expectations. So it’s not as easy as saying, Oh, we’re going to trade Ryan mountcastle in the off season and just hand the starting job to Kobe mayo. You’re trying to win games. So what would have been great would would have been to see Mayo tear the cover off the ball this spring, to the point where he gives them no choice but to put him on the opening day roster. And then maybe you could have traded Orion O’Hearn, right? You could have traded a Ramon Arias or someone of that ilk, to clear a spot for him. But they’re kind of in this in between, where you still need the older guys that are not going to be long term pieces for you, but mayo, who borrowing a trade is someone you envision being a long term piece for you. But how do you find the appropriate point to transition there? And that’s where it’s tough, like I said. I mean, we were talking about that same, you know, a very similar conversation about Colton cows, or a year ago at this time, but a month into the season with Hayes hurt and off to a bad start, and cows are tearing the cover off the ball, it was kind of all over at that point. You know, for all we know, Ryan now, Castle might turn his ankle the third day of the season, and Coby Mayo is either called up then or shortly thereafter, and it clicks, and before you know it, he’s in the everyday lineup. So we don’t know exactly how it’s going to play out, but I think you know that’s where it’s just kind of tricky for where they are right now. They’ve had
Nestor Aparicio 28:35
adversity here that’s going to cause a different script. Yeah, and you in the spring, I’m talking about, sure, starting with the pitching, no question, injuries, no. I mean, Gunner Henderson not being there next Thursday, when we get there is, you know, I mean, I don’t know what rushman is. I don’t know what their pitching is. I’m not as bullish on them being a great team. I am okay with the fact that they didn’t waste a lot of money in the off season and they’re doing this. Well, let’s compete. Let’s compete. Let’s compete. Let’s be in this and let’s make the team better as we go along. Because some of these young players are going to merge, some are going to fall on their face. Mayo could be back up at the All Star break, and at 22 home runs second half, sure, like I
Luke Jones 29:15
or he could be traded for an ace at the at the trade deadline. I mean, I mean, that’s still, you know, we’re not talking about that being, I wouldn’t mind that. Yeah, you’re still talking about him being a top 20 prospect in baseball. And, you know, I’ve seen some conjecture, and, you know, fans and media types talking about, you know, you get to a point where are these guys, you know, these prospects that they’ve either dealt or they’ve held on to start to have diminished trade value, and maybe in some circles at the same time, depends when you trade them well, but, but it’s also who are we talking about here? I mean, Kyle Stowers and Norby and even Joey Ortiz at his best was still more of a fringe top 100 prospect guy. So you know, DL Hall. I think they would have loved to have held on to but they had no faith that he could stay healthy. And guess what, in Milwaukee, hasn’t been able to stay healthy. So, you know, I think even knowing that burns walked after one year, you still do that deal 100 times out of 100 I’m still okay with that. I don’t think Joe Joey Ortiz isn’t going to be gunner Henderson light, right? I mean, he’s going to be solid, good defensively. I think he’s got a chance to be a starter or, you know, maybe his long term fit is as a really good super utility guy that can play three infield spots and start four or five days a week. I mean, Melvin Mora did that for a long time for the Orioles, at a time where they weren’t very good overall, but he was active a player for quite a while. But, you know, I think you know you’re just, you look at this and you still have to remember if you’re Mike Elias, and he has not shied away from this as much as I hear fans and media say, he doesn’t say anything. You know, he he talks a lot without saying anything. You’ll hear people say that about his press conferences. He has never shied away from the idea that he is looking at this with a long term view, in the sense that he’s not going to be all in and jeopardize their long term health as an organization just to try to incrementally improve their chances to win in 2025 now that might hurt you at times, but at the same time, you hear me say it all the time. Trade deadline, we will spend so much time talking about and we’ll inevitably do it again this summer. How often do you really, of all the deals that are made, how many of them really, truly move the needle to a dramatic degree? Maybe one or two
Nestor Aparicio 31:35
years, giving me away and saying, Well, if you’re waiting on a big deal in the season to change the trajectory of the season. That rarely happened. Well,
Luke Jones 31:44
you have to be good at that. I mean, if there’s seven, you know, and you also pay a lot too, if there are two games over 500 at the trade deadline, they’re probably not trading for an ace. Now, if they’re and who knows that the American League, I’m not sure there’s American League East. I’m not sure there’s gonna be any team that’s close to 100 wins, you know. And that’s part of this too. The Yankees are diminished. Yankees are diminished. Red Sox are really interesting, but they still have, you know, they’re coming off of a lower floor.
Nestor Aparicio 32:13
You know? They say you are the Mr. Bueller and all that. If he had Bueller, right now, would you feel better about it?
Luke Jones 32:17
I feel better. I’m not. I’m not saying that means they’d be 100 win outfit, better than, what? Better than better, not Morton, and better than. I’d like to see a pitcher with a little more upside. I mean, Walker, Bueller before the second Tommy John surgery. It’s one of the best pitchers in the National League for a three or four year period. Now, he could stink for them, but for me, it’s looking at it in terms of, if you’re, if you’re in the business of one year contracts. You know you had two that you know, in the case of Morton and Sagano, might work out, and they might be excellent number three and number four starters for you. But in the case of Bueller, there might be a higher bust rate with him, given his health history. But the upside might be that he actually could be your ACE for a year, and whether you sign them long term or let them go the route of burns, you do it. Well, we’re
Nestor Aparicio 33:04
wondering the bus rate on Batista right now. You know whether we’re really going to get a year out of him, we’ll kind of hear, you know. And I think the same thing would be said for Bueller if he had signed him. Yeah,
Luke Jones 33:12
yeah, I bet. Look, there’s no such thing as a risk free pitcher at this point in time. And, I mean, there just isn’t. Garrett Cole was considered a horse and very durable until he’s not anymore, and he’s not pitching this year, next week, we’re
Nestor Aparicio 33:24
going to sign Sid Finch So April Fool’s Bucha. But
Luke Jones 33:28
all of that being acknowledged and having some questions, and maybe me not being as optimistic as I was six weeks ago, just because of some of the attrition they’ve they have endured over the course of spring training. I still think this is a good club. I still think they have as good a chance as anyone in the Al east to win the division, because I think all five teams, in their own ways, are still trying to win. I think Tampa Bay quietly made a couple decent moves, kind of off the radar moves, and they’re getting a lot of their starting pitching back that was injured in the second half of 23 you know, headlined by Shane McClanahan and some other guys that they’re adding to the mix. So I think this is one of those years that feels like the year where a lot of people write off the rays and then suddenly they’re 80, an 88 win team that’s fighting for a wild card, if not the division. So, you know, I think the Yankees have a lot of volatility now because of their pitching injuries, and they’re dealing with a lot of older guys. They’re kind of the opposite of the Orioles. The Orioles are waiting for, you know, younger guys to reach their ceiling, whereas the Yankees have guys that they’re trying to either squeeze something out of, kind of revitalize their career, like a Paul Goldschmidt coming up, not revitalizing his career, but coming off of a down year, you know, for his high standards, and some, you know, VG and Carlos Stanton’s already out, and who knows when he’s going to be back. So they have a lot of older guys they’re really counting on. It’s great. 2019
Nestor Aparicio 34:49
team,
Luke Jones 34:51
sure. Hey, to their credit, was a great 2024 team. They made it to the World Series, right? I mean, you know, I’m not going to sit here and be too disparaging. And you know, they made some other. Moves, you know, Devin Williams and their pen, but they’ve got a lot of questions, too. The Red Sox have questions. I mean, go look at Toronto, as much as we’ve, kind of, you know, you and I’ve talked about them a lot. I mean, their payrolls. Go look at their payroll. They’re spending a lot of money, but they’re coming off of a year where things didn’t go away trying. And, I mean, okay, they’re trying. But who have they landed? They didn’t get Juan Soto, even though they really tried telling
Nestor Aparicio 35:24
you, dude, I was in Canada the night that they thought that they had Shohei Ohtani. Yeah, that night that getting Lee did his book thing. I was here that night, everybody, crowd was buzzing about Otani coming to Toronto. Meanwhile,
Luke Jones 35:34
Vlad Guerrero juniors in a contract year and has, you know, they had an artificial deadline, which can always be picked up again. I mean, I I always kind of laugh at those types of fake deadlines that are set stinky.
Nestor Aparicio 35:45
You’ll be the guy they deal in July, right? Yeah, but, but they’re trying to be good, you know?
Luke Jones 35:49
They’re trying to win again. So all five of these teams have things going for them, and things where you could say, oh, wow, that could really be a pressure point. That could really be a downfall. That doesn’t mean you’re going to lose 100 games, but if you’re looking for a scenario of how you miss the playoffs, or you’re fighting for the third wild card rather than having a chance to win the division, yeah, they all have some some elements like that. So all of that being said, and as gloom and doom as I sounded for 60% I’m
Nestor Aparicio 36:19
going to tell you right now that’s, it’s truth. I,
Luke Jones 36:23
I love their position talent. I I think they’re starting rotation is good enough to navigate the first few months of the season and still win games. But now, with the bullpen being shaky in concert with that, that’s where I the pitching, it’s gotten a little too thin, a little too ifs and buts and maybe, and if that guy does this, and if this guy, you know, there’s a little bit too much of that going on for my liking. When, in turn, you look at the position side, where I’m not saying everything’s perfect on that front, let’s be clear. But man, the potential for this lineup to be really, really, really good, one of the very best in baseball. So that said, you don’t want to be leading seven to six in the seventh inning, and you’re dumping games because you have no idea who’s going to pitch the seventh or eighth, let alone the ninth. 27 out. That’s 27 that’s where right now, I’m a little I’m definitely more uneasy about that than I was three or four weeks ago, where, hey, again, I was, I was kind of positive with the bullpen, but, yeah, this Batista thing just feels a little I hope it’s just them being coy and just trying to maintain a competitive edge, as we hear teams say all the time in this day and Age. But you know him, him pitching what I think was four times in his first 11 or 12 days from the point he made the debut, and then going a full week. And I get it, they said he’s thrown on the backfields, but when you were very explicit, and Brandon Hyde saying, want him to pitch six or seven times in the grapefruit League, and he’s at four heading into the last weekend, where there’s only a couple more games left, you know, that makes me take pause to say, Okay, are you just really, really slow playing it and being very careful, but he’s still fine, or is there some kind of, even just a minor issue that’s slowing them down here, where, again, we’re not at 12 or 13 months, where you say, Okay, I kind of hear that. You know, he should kind of be at the point now where you’re really taking the restrictor plate off and letting him
Nestor Aparicio 38:29
air it out at 102, necessarily. But being ready to pitch in major league games that that’s what I’m saying, because they start in a couple that you can eat that pizza. I had to do all the talking you can. I’m already two pieces into this thing here. I’ve been after it. We’re a pizza John’s. This is the pizza Luke is eating the pizza. It is delicious. This is his pizza here. This is the meat sauce and pepperoni. We would highly recommend you can order Pizza John from anywhere in the world. Just get it. She can break it at home. You can pick them up and play. You can pick it up here, take it home and make it it always tastes better here, though, I would say that cheese steaks, I haven’t gotten any French fries and gravy. I’m waiting for shining to get here. Dave, shining from the Washington Post, is going to join us at some point. Luke and I are here. We are going to be going to Toronto this week. One of us will be in the press box. The other guy will be buying tickets for as little Canadian dollars as I can. You ready for Canada? Or you’re not, you know, no, you good? I’m ready. Passports out again. I’m
Luke Jones 39:26
excited. I’m very excited for baseball. I’m still overall optimistic about the Orioles. My argument has been, I’m not as optimistic as I was. You
Nestor Aparicio 39:36
don’t love the team. You don’t need no press pass. You don’t love the team enough. Where it Essex. I’m gonna let him eat his pizza. Luke Jones is here. It’s all brought to you by our friends at the Maryland lottery, we have the magic eight ball scratch offs to give away. Been a lucky batch pizza. John’s 410-687-7733, the multi talented musician, writer, the artist known as Dave shining has arrived on the scene. Me just in time to get some leftover pizza, or fresh pizza for him and his lovely family in butcher hill. They got new pizza like this down the city. Man, you gotta come back to the county. We’re in Essex. Um, back when I was young man, I said I put the sex in Essex, but my mom would call it Essex. Essex. You going to Essex? Who’s going to Essex? Dundalk, guys in Essex. We’re pizza Johns. Back for more. We’re talking baseball and pitching in arms and relief pitching, and whether they’re going to let me back into the country from Canada, stay with
40:31
us. You.
